The European Union is the new sick man of Europe. The effort over the past half century to create a more united Europe is now the principal casualty of the euro crisis. The European project now stands in disrepute across much of Europe.

Support for European economic integration – the 1957 raison d’etre for creating the European Economic Community, the European Union’s predecessor – is down over last year in five of the eight European Union countries surveyed by the Pew Research Center in 2013. Positive views of the European Union are at or near their low point in most EU nations, even among the young, the hope for the EU’s future. The favorability of the EU has fallen from a median of 60% in 2012 to 45% in 2013. And only in Germany does at least half the public back giving more power to Brussels to deal with the current economic crisis.

The sick man label – attributed originally to Russian Czar Nicholas I in his description of the Ottoman Empire in the mid-19th century – has more recently been applied at different times over the past decade and a half to Germany, Italy, Portugal, Greece and France. But this fascination with the crisis country of the moment has masked a broader phenomenon: the erosion of Europeans’ faith in the animating principles that have driven so much of what they have accomplished internally.

The prolonged economic crisis has created centrifugal forces that are pulling European public opinion apart, separating the French from the Germans and the Germans from everyone else. The southern nations of Spain, Italy and Greece are becoming ever more estranged as evidenced by their frustration with Brussels, Berlin and the perceived unfairness of the economic system.

These negative sentiments are driven, in part, by the public’s generally glum mood about economic conditions and could well turn around if the European economy picks up. But Europe’s economic fortunes have worsened in the past year, and prospects for a rapid turnaround remain elusive. The International Monetary Fund expects the European Union economy to not grow at all in 2013 and to still be performing below its pre-crisis average in 2018. Nevertheless, despite the vocal political debate about austerity, a clear majority in five of eight countries surveyed still think the best way to solve their country’s economic problems is to cut government spending, not spend more money.

These are among the key findings of a new study by the Pew Research Center conducted in eight European Union nations among 7,646 respondents from March 2 to March 27, 2013.

A Dyspeptic France

No European country is becoming more dispirited and disillusioned faster than France. In just the past year, the public mood has soured dramatically across the board. The French are negative about the economy, with 91% saying it is doing badly, up 10 percentage points since 2012. They are negative about their leadership: 67% think President Francois Hollande is doing a lousy job handling the challenges posed by the economic crisis, a criticism of the president that is 24 points worse than that of his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy. The French are also beginning to doubt their commitment to the European project, with 77% believing European economic integration has made things worse for France, an increase of 14 points since last year. And 58% now have a bad impression of the European Union as an institution, up 18 points from 2012.

Even more dramatically, French attitudes have sharply diverged from German public opinion on a range of issues since the beginning of the euro crisis. Differences in opinion across the Rhine have long existed. But the French public mood is now looking less like that in Germany and more like that in the southern peripheral nations of Spain, Italy and Greece.

Positive assessment of the economy in France have fallen by more than half since before the crisis and is now comparable to that in the south. The French share similar worries about inflation and unemployment with the Spanish, the Italians and the Greeks at levels of concern not held by the Germans. Only the Greeks and Italians have less belief in the benefits of economic union than do the French. The French now have less faith in the European Union as an institution than do the Italians or the Spanish. And the French, like their southern European compatriots, have lost confidence in their elected leader.

Disillusionment with Elected Leaders

Compounding their doubts about the Brussels-based European Union, Europeans are losing faith in the capacity of their own national leaders to cope with the economy’s woes. In most countries surveyed, fewer people today than a year ago think their national executive is doing a good job dealing with the euro crisis. This includes just 25% of the public in Italy, where the sitting Prime Minister Mario Monti was voted out while this survey was being conducted. Even the Germans, who overwhelmingly back their Chancellor Angela Merkel, are slightly more judgmental of her handling of Europe’s economic challenges than they were last year. And Merkel faces the voters in an election in September 2013.

Nevertheless, Merkel remains the most popular leader in Europe, by a wide margin. She enjoys majority approval for her handling of the European economic crisis in five of the eight nations surveyed. But in Greece (88%) and Spain (57%), majorities now say she has done a bad job, as do half (50%) of those surveyed in Italy.

Economic Gloom

Most Europeans are profoundly concerned about the state of their economies. Just 1% of the Greeks, 3% of the Italians, 4% of the Spanish and 9% of the French think economic conditions are good. Only the Germans (75%) are pleased with their economy.

And the economic mood has worsened appreciably since before the euro crisis began. Positive sentiment is down 61 percentage points in Spain, 54 points in Britain, 22 points in Italy and 21 points in both the Czech Republic and France.

But despair about the economy may have bottomed out in some nations since 2012. Sentiment seems to have stabilized in the Czech Republic and Poland. And the mood can’t get much worse in Spain, Italy and Greece.

Most Europeans are almost as gloomy about the future. Just 11% of the French, 14% of the Greeks and Poles, and 15% of the Czechs think that their national economic situation will improve over the next 12 months.

A median of 78% in the eight countries surveyed say a lack of jobs is a very big problem in their country. And a median of 71% cite the public debt. Except in Germany, overwhelming majorities in many countries say unemployment, the public debt, rising prices and the gap between the rich and the poor are very important problems. Unemployment is the number one worry in seven of the eight countries. Inequality is the principle concern in Germany.

Apprehension about economic mobility and inequality is also widespread. Across the eight nations polled, a median of 66%, including 90% of the French, think children today will be worse off financially than their parents when they grow up. A median of 77% believe that the economic system generally favors the wealthy. This includes 95% of the Greeks, 89% of the Spanish and 86% of the Italians. A median of 60% think the gap between the rich and the poor is a very big problem; that sentiment is felt by 84% of the Greeks and 75% of both the Italians and the Spanish. And a median of 85% say such inequality has increased in the past five years, a concern particularly prevalent among the Spanish (90%).

Absolute economic deprivation has long been less of an issue in Europe than in some other countries, thanks to the relatively robust European social safety net. But in the wake of economic hard times, deprivation in France is on the rise, where roughly one-in-five say they could not afford food, health care or clothing at some point in the past year.

The Southern Challenge

The euro crisis has created a southern challenge for the European Union. Spain, Italy and Greece have suffered greatly during the economic downturn. And the public mood in these countries is extremely bleak in both absolute and relative terms.

More than seven-in-ten Spanish (79%) and Greeks (72%) say economic conditions are very bad. A majority of Italians (58%) say the same. This compares with a median of 28% for the rest of Europe. More than nine-in-ten in Greece (99%), Italy (97%) and Spain (94%) think the lack of employment opportunities is a very big problem (official unemployment in January 2013 was 27.2% in Greece and in March 2013 was 26.7% in Spain and 11.5% in Italy). Fully 94% of Greeks, 84% of Italians and 69% of Spanish complain that inflation also poses a very big challenge. This compares with a median of 58% elsewhere. And roughly seven-in-ten or more in all three countries fault their leader’s handing of the economic crisis.

Such economic gloom has fed disgruntlement with the European Union. In Greece, 78% now believe that economic integration has weakened the Greek economy, a sentiment about their economy shared by 75% of the Italians and 60% of the Spanish. As a result, nearly two-thirds (65%) of Greeks and about half (52%) of the Spanish have an unfavorable view of the EU. This compares with medians of 59% who question integration and 48% who take a critical view of the EU in the other five countries surveyed.

Concern about inequality is widespread throughout Europe, particularly in the south. A view that the economic system generally favors the wealthy is shared by 95% of the Greeks, 89% of the Spanish and 86% of the Italians. Such frustration exceeds the median of 72% in the other five nations surveyed. Similarly, 84% of the Greeks and 75% of the Italians and Spanish say the gap between the rich and the poor is a very big problem. That compares with a median of just 54% of the Europeans surveyed outside the region who hold such critical views.

So What to Do about the Euro Crisis?

When asked which of the economic challenges facing their countries their government should address first, people in seven of the eight nations choose the lack of employment opportunities. A median of 57% first want their elected leaders to create more jobs. And employment is a particular priority in Spain (72%), Italy (64%) and the Czech Republic (64%).

Europeans are of two minds about public debt, which has been at the center of the debate over the euro crisis since it began. A majority in six of the eight countries surveyed consider debt a very big problem. When pressed to choose between reducing public expenditures and more spending, most publics choose the former, even in Spain (67%) and Italy (59%), despite the fact that people there have already experienced cutbacks in government spending, economic contraction and record high unemployment. Across Europe a median of 59% believe that reducing public debt is the best way to solve their country’s economic problems. But a median of only 17% think debt reduction should be their government’s number one economic priority.

Some Good News

Despite rising disillusionment with the European project, the euro, the common currency for 17 of the 27 European Union members, remains in public favor. More than six-in-ten people want to keep the euro as their currency in Greece (69%), Spain (67%), Germany (66%), Italy (64%) and France (63%). And support for the euro has actually increased in Italy and Spain since last year.

Moreover, notwithstanding the fact that only 26% of the British public think being a member of the European Union has been good for their economy and just 43% hold positive views of the European Union, the British, who will hold a referendum on continued EU membership in 2017, remain evenly divided on leaving the EU: 46% say stay and 46% say go.

Differences Abound

Overall, the 2013 survey highlights more starkly than ever the differences between the views of Germans and other Europeans on a range of issues. And it underscores that, in some cases, those differences are growing. Germans feel better than others about the economy (by 66 points over the EU median), about their personal finances (by 26 points), about the future (by 12 points), about the European Union (by 17 points), about European economic integration (by 28 points) and about their own elected leadership (by 48 points).

And the survey contradicts oft-repeated narratives about the Germans: that they are paranoid about inflation, disinclined to bail out their fellow Europeans and debt-obsessed. To the contrary, Germans are among the least likely of those surveyed to see inflation as a very big problem and the most likely among the richer European nations to be willing to provide financial assistance to other European Union countries that have major financial problems. And while Germans are worried about public debt, they are more concerned about inequality and equally concerned about unemployment.

The prominent role Germans have played in Europe’s response to the euro crisis has evoked decidedly mixed emotions from their fellow Europeans. In every country except Greece, people consider Germans the most trustworthy. At the same time, in six of the eight nations surveyed, people see the Germans as the least compassionate. And in five of the eight, they are considered the most arrogant. In the wake of the strict austerity measures imposed in Greece, Greek enmity toward the Germans knows little bound. Greeks consider the Germans to be the least trustworthy, the most arrogant and the least compassionate. But the Greeks themselves do not fare that well. They are considered the least trustworthy by the French, the Germans and the Czechs.

Israelis and Palestinians differ widely in their outlook for a peaceful resolution of their longstanding conflict and in their views about the United States. But both want U.S. President Barack Obama to play a larger role in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian stalemate.

Israelis, on balance, believe a way can be found for an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully with their country. Palestinians, on the other hand, overwhelmingly do not think this is possible, and a plurality believes armed struggle rather than negotiations or nonviolent resistance is the best way to achieve statehood.

Views of the United States also continue to vary considerably between Israelis and Palestinians. Israelis are far more likely to rate the U.S. favorably and to say its policies in the Middle East are fair.

Nonetheless, while Palestinians give the U.S. negative ratings and are nearly unanimous in saying the U.S. favors Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, many join Israelis in welcoming a larger role for the Obama administration in resolving the conflict.

While Obama, who visited Jerusalem and the West Bank in March, remains largely unpopular in the Palestinian territories, his ratings have improved markedly in Israel. The president enjoys the confidence of 61% of Israelis, up 12 percentage points from 2011. Palestinians, however, remain negative, with just 15% expressing confidence in Obama to do the right thing in world affairs, and 82% saying they have little or no confidence in the American president.

These are among the key findings from a new survey by the Pew Research Center of 14,997 people in 12 countries and the Palestinian territories from March 3 to April 12, 2013. Survey countries include Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel and the Palestinian territories, as well as the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – the United States, France, Britain, China and Russia – and Germany, which has played an active role in key issues related to the Middle East. Surveys in Israel and the Palestinian territories were conducted after Obama’s trip to the region.

Israel’s image is overwhelmingly negative in the region; 86% or more in Lebanon, Jordan, the Palestinian territories, Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey have an unfavorable view. Israel also has few friends in France, Germany and China, where majorities express negative opinions of the Jewish state. The U.S. is the only country surveyed where a majority (57%) gives Israel a favorable rating.

Despite their negative views of Israel, Westerners generally believe a peaceful resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is possible. At least half in France, Germany, Britain and the U.S. think a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully. In contrast, publics in Turkey and in the Arab countries surveyed are skeptical that this is possible.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas receive negative ratings in the region, although majorities in Israel and in the Palestinian territories rate their own leader favorably.

Netanyahu’s ratings are especially negative, with seven-in-ten in Turkey and at least 85% in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia expressing unfavorable views. Abbas receives his most negative ratings in Israel, where 84% have an unfavorable view of the Palestinian leader. Majorities or pluralities in Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey also offer negative ratings of Abbas.

In Israel, a substantial number believes the continued building of Jewish settlements in the West Bank hurts their nation’s security, an opinion that is held by nearly half of secular Jews and by a large majority of Arabs in that country. In contrast, just 19% of Israeli Jews who describe themselves as traditional, religious or ultra-Orthodox, say the continued building of settlements makes Israel less safe, while 41% say it makes Israel safer and 31% say it does not make a difference.

Middle East Sympathies

Perceptions of the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians differ considerably across the countries surveyed. In the U.S., about half (53%) say they sympathize more with Israel, while just 14% sympathize more with the Palestinians. This is virtually unchanged from the last time the Pew Global Attitudes Project asked this question in 2007.

Views are more mixed in France, Germany and Russia. For example, 40% of French respondents sympathize more with Israel, while 44% say their sympathies lie with the Palestinians. Similarly, in Germany and Russia, about as many side with Israel as side with the Palestinians, but substantial numbers in these countries do not sympathize with either side in this conflict (31% and 42%, respectively).

One-in-five respondents in Britain also do not sympathize with either side in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but those who choose a side tend to sympathize with the Palestinians. About a third (35%) of the British sympathize with the Palestinians, while 19% side with Israel.

In Turkey and the Arab countries where this question was asked, overwhelming majorities side with the Palestinians. At least nine-in-ten in Tunisia (98%), Jordan (94%) and Egypt (92%) sympathize with the Palestinians in the dispute with Israel, as do 88% in Lebanon and 66% in Turkey.

For the most part, there has been little change in perceptions of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in recent years. In France, however, opinions are more balanced than they were in 2007, when 43% sympathized with the Palestinians and 32% sympathized with Israel. Germans also offer more even views now compared with six years ago; 34% sided with Israel and 21% sided with the Palestinians in 2007.

Prospects for Palestinian Statehood

Israelis and Palestinians have very different opinions on the prospects for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state that coexists peacefully alongside Israel. Half of Israelis think this is possible, while 38% say it is not and 9% say it depends.

Palestinians are far less optimistic; 61% do not believe a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully, while 14% say this is possible and 22% say it depends.

Israeli Arabs are considerably more likely than Jews to say it is possible for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully; 75% of Arabs in Israel say this is the case, compared with 46% of Israeli Jews.

Among Jews in Israel, a majority of those who describe themselves as secular believe a peaceful two-state solution is a possibility, while just 32% of those who describe themselves as traditional, religious or ultra-Orthodox share this view.

Elsewhere, at least half in France (71%), Germany (59%), Britain (52%) and the U.S. (50%) are optimistic that a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully with each other.

In Lebanon and Tunisia, majorities say there is not a way for a peaceful two-state solution to be achieved (80% and 57%, respectively), and about half (47%) in Turkey and 40% in Egypt are also skeptical. Opinions are somewhat more divided in Jordan, Russia and China, although pluralities in Russia and China say there is a way for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully.

Palestinians are more likely to say armed struggle is the best way for their people to achieve statehood (45%) than they are to say negotiations or nonviolent resistance offer the best prospect for the creation of a Palestinian state (15% each). Another 22% volunteer that a combination of these three approaches would be most effective.

When asked whether Arab countries are doing too much, too little or enough to help the Palestinian people achieve statehood, three-quarters in the Palestinian territories say they are doing too little; 16% say other Arab nations are doing enough and 5% believe they are doing too much to help Palestinians achieve statehood.

In the other Arab countries surveyed, only in Tunisia and Egypt do majorities or pluralities say their country could be doing more to help the Palestinians. More than six-in-ten (64%) Tunisians say their country is doing too little to help the Palestinian people achieve statehood. In Egypt, 47% believe their country is doing too little, but 34% think it is doing enough and 14% think Egypt is doing too much to help Palestinians with this goal.

Views are more mixed in Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. For example, about the same number of Lebanese say their country is doing too little to help the Palestinian people achieve statehood (37%) as say it is doing enough (38%), while about a quarter (24%) believe Lebanon is doing too much. Among Jordanians, 28% say their country could be doing more to help Palestinians, while 38% think it is doing enough and 29% think Jordan is doing too much. And in Turkey, 26% say their country is doing too little, but 33% believe it is doing enough and 15% say it is doing too much to help the Palestinian people achieve statehood.

Views of Israel Largely Unfavorable

The U.S. is the only country surveyed where a majority expresses positive views of Israel: 57% of Americans have a favorable opinion and 27% have an unfavorable view of one of their country’s closest allies in the Middle East. Russians also express more favorable than unfavorable views of Israel (46% vs. 38%).

In predominantly Muslim countries, as well as in France, Germany, Britain and China, majorities or pluralities express negative opinions in Israel. At least eight-in-ten in Lebanon (99%), Jordan (96%), the Palestinian territories (94%), Egypt (92%), Turkey (86%), and Tunisia (86%) offer unfavorable views. Majorities in China (66%), France (65%) and Germany (62%) also express negative opinions of Israel, as does a 44%-plurality in Britain.

Negative Views of Netanyahu and Abbas

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu receives overwhelmingly negative ratings in neighboring countries. At least nine-in-ten in neighboring Lebanon (99%), Palestinian territories (96%), Jordan (95%) and Egypt (92%) have an unfavorable view of the Israeli leader; 85% in Tunisia and 70% in Turkey also express negative opinions of Netanyahu.

In Israel, by contrast, more than half (56%) view Netanyahu favorably, while 42% have an unfavorable opinion of their country’s prime minister. Israeli Jews are far more likely than Israeli Arabs to express positive views of Netanyahu. Among Jews, 63% have a favorable opinion and 36% have an unfavorable view of the prime minister; among Arabs, just 20% have a positive view, while 76% have a negative view of Netanyahu. Israeli Jews who describe themselves as traditional, religious or ultra-Orthodox are especially likely to have a favorable opinion of Netanyahu (70% vs. 58% of secular Jews).

Views of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas are also largely negative across the region, but not as overwhelmingly so as views of Netanyahu. More than eight-in-ten (84%) Israelis hold unfavorable opinions of Abbas, but Arabs in that country are more positive, with 52% expressing favorable views and 44% expressing negative opinions of Abbas.

Majorities in Lebanon (64%), Egypt (58%) and Jordan (56%) also have unfavorable views, as does a 42%-plurality in Turkey. Tunisians are nearly evenly divided, with 40% expressing positive views and 37% expressing unfavorable views of the Palestinian leader.

In Lebanon, views of Abbas reflect religious and sectarian differences. Majorities of Christians (78%) and Shia (66%) hold unfavorable opinions of Abbas. Among Lebanese Sunnis, however, most (54%) give the Palestinian leader a positive rating, while 44% have a negative opinion of him.

Palestinians express mostly positive opinions of Abbas; 61% have a favorable view and 34% have an unfavorable view of the Palestinian president. Abbas is viewed favorably by majorities in both the West Bank (57%) and Gaza (68%). His party also receives positive ratings among Palestinians; 69% have a favorable view of Fatah, while 27% express unfavorable opinions.

Islamic Jihad and Hamas, two groups designated as terrorist organizations by the U.S., receive lower ratings among Palestinians than Fatah, which renounced terrorism in 1988. Still, a majority of Palestinians (56%) holds favorable opinions of Islamic Jihad, while about a third (35%) gives the militant organization negative ratings.

Opinions of Hamas are more mixed, with 48% of Palestinians viewing the extremist group favorably and 45% saying they have an unfavorable view of Hamas. In 2011, when Pew Research last asked Palestinians about Hamas, more held negative views (56%) than expressed positive opinions (42%), but the militant organization was more popular in 2007, when 62% of Palestinians gave it a positive rating. Views of Hamas and Islamic Jihad do not vary significantly between the West Bank and Gaza or across demographic groups.

Many Israelis Say Settlements Hurt Security

About four-in-ten Israelis (42%) believe the continued building of Jewish settlements in the West Bank hurts their nation’s security; 27% say the expansion of settlements helps Israel’s security, and 23% say it does not make a difference.

Israeli Arabs are far more likely than Israeli Jews to say the continued building of Jewish settlements in the West Bank hurts Israel’s security. More than eight-in-ten (84%) Israeli Arabs express this view, while 4% say it helps their country’s security and 2% believe it does not make a difference. Israeli Jews are divided: 35% say the expansion of settlements hurts the security of Israel, 31% say it helps, and 27% say it does not make a difference.

Among Jews, those who are secular are considerably more critical of the continued building of settlements than those who describe themselves as traditional, religious or ultra-Orthodox. Nearly half of secular Jews in Israel (47%) believe the continued building of Jewish settlements in the West Bank hurts their country’s security; fewer say it helps or does not make a difference (23% each). Among more observant Jews, just 19% say expansion of settlements hurts Israel’s security, while 41% say it helps and 31% say it does not make a difference.

Israelis and Palestinians Differ on Views of U.S. and Obama

The U.S. receives overwhelmingly positive ratings in Israel, with even more Israelis now saying they have a favorable view of their country’s ally than did so two years ago, when Pew Research last conducted a survey in Israel; today, 83% express a positive opinion of the U.S., compared with 72% in 2011. In contrast, about eight-in-ten (79%) Palestinians express unfavorable views of the U.S., virtually unchanged from recent surveys.

In Israel, Jews are far more likely than Arabs to express positive views of the U.S.; nine-in-ten Israeli Jews have a favorable opinion, compared with 42% of Israeli Arabs. Arabs and Jews in Israel agree, however, that their country’s relationship with the U.S. is good. Overall, 94% of Israelis think Israel and the U.S. have a good relationship; 93% of Israeli Jews and 95% of Israeli Arabs share this view.

In the Palestinian territories, about one-third (35%) describe relations between the Palestinian Authority and the U.S. as good, while most (57%) say they are bad. Opinions are especially negative in Gaza, where just 24% say the relationship between their government and the U.S. is good, while 73% say it is bad. Views are more mixed in the West Bank, with 42% saying the Palestinian Authority has a good relationship with the U.S. and 47% saying relations between the two governments are bad.

Israelis and Palestinians also differ on views of Obama. About six-in-ten (61%) Israelis express confidence in the American president to do the right thing regarding world affairs, up from 49% in 2011. In the Palestinian territories, just 15% have confidence in Obama, while 82% have little or no confidence in him.

In Israel, opinions of Obama are far more positive among Jews than among Arabs. More than six-in-ten (64%) Jews express confidence in the American president, compared with about half (48%) of Arabs.

Secular Jews in Israel are especially positive in their views of Obama. About seven-in-ten (71%) secular Jews have confidence in Obama to do the right thing when it comes to world affairs, compared with 56% of Israeli Jews who describe themselves as traditional, religious or ultra-Orthodox.

U.S. Policies in the Middle East

Israelis are more likely than they were six years ago to see U.S. policies in the Middle East as fair. Nearly half of Israelis (47%) say this is the case, while 35% say U.S. policies favor their own country too much and 14% say the U.S. is biased towards the Palestinians. In 2007, 37% of Israelis believed the U.S. was fair, while 42% said it favored Israel too much and 13% said the U.S. was overly supportive of the Palestinians.

Israeli opinions about U.S. policies in the Middle East vary considerably by ethnicity and religious affiliation. About six-in-ten (62%) secular Jews in Israel see the U.S. as fair, while 23% say the U.S. is biased toward Israel and 12% say the U.S. is biased toward the Palestinians. Among Israeli Jews who describe themselves as traditional, religious or ultra-Orthodox, 47% say U.S. policies in the region are fair, 23% say they favor their own country too much, and 22% say the U.S. is biased towards the Palestinians. Israeli Arabs overwhelmingly believe U.S. policies favor Israel too much; 94% say this is the case.

Palestinian assessments of U.S. policies in the Middle East mirror those of Arabs in Israel. More than nine-in-ten (95%) Palestinians believe the U.S. is biased toward Israel, virtually unchanged from past surveys.

When asked whether they would like the Obama administration to play a larger role, a smaller role or about the same role it has been playing in resolving the conflict in the Middle East, at least four-in-ten Israelis and Palestinians say they would like it to play a larger role in the coming months.

About half (49%) of Israelis would like the Obama administration to be more involved, while 15% would like it to play a smaller role and 29% would like it to play the same role it has been playing in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Opinions on this do not vary considerably between Israeli Arabs and Jews.

In the Palestinian territories, 41% would welcome more involvement from the Obama administration in the coming months; about a quarter (26%) of Palestinians want the American president to play a smaller role in resolving the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, and 19% would like it to play the same role it has been playing. Those who live in the West Bank are more likely than Gaza residents to say they would like the Obama administration to play a larger role in the Middle East conflict; 47% in the West Bank want more U.S. involvement, compared with 30% in Gaza.

Israeli and Palestinian Policies toward the U.S.

A majority of Israelis (61%) approve of Netanyahu’s policies toward the U.S., while 28% disapprove. Israeli Jews who describe themselves as traditional, religious or ultra-orthodox are especially likely to approve of Netanyahu’s policies (75% approve), but most secular Jews also approve (63%). Israeli Arabs are more critical of the prime minister’s policies toward the U.S.; just 22% approve and 59% disapprove of Netanyahu’s policies toward the U.S.

In the Palestinian territories, half approve of Abbas’ policies toward the U.S., and 38% disapprove. Views of the way Hamas is handling the U.S. are more mixed; 39% approve and 46% disapprove. Opinions about Hamas’ policies toward the U.S. are similar in the West Bank and Gaza.

As concern mounts about the Syrian government’s possible use of chemical weapons against its own people, publics in the Middle East – especially the Lebanese – are extremely worried about violence spreading to neighboring countries. Nonetheless, a new survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted before news emerged of alleged use of chemical agents by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, found little regional support for Western or Arab countries sending arms and military supplies to anti-government groups in Syria. And there is even greater opposition among American and European publics to such indirect Syrian involvement by their governments. A more recent Pew Research nationwide U.S. poll finds that hard evidence that Damascus has engaged in chemical warfare would only lead to a modest increase in American public support for an allied military effort in Syria.

Meanwhile, Assad is very unpopular throughout the region, except among Shia Muslims in Lebanon. In turn, Lebanese Muslims are divided over aid to the rebels. Most Sunnis back such assistance, while Shia overwhelmingly oppose it.

These are the key findings from a new survey by the Pew Research Center of 11,771 people in 12 countries from March 3 to April 7, 2013. Surveyed countries include Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian territories and Tunisia in the Middle East; Germany, France and Britain in Europe; and the United States and Russia.

Fear of Spreading Violence

Publics in the region are deeply concerned that the fighting in Syria could one day spread to neighboring nations. This worry is particularly prevalent in predominantly Muslim countries that share a border with Syria, notably Lebanon and Jordan.

With clashes escalating along the Syrian-Lebanese frontier, more than nine-in-ten Lebanese (95%) worry that Syria’s violence may spill over into their nation, including 68% who are very concerned. Such fears are shared by all the principal religious groups in Lebanon: the Christians (99%), Shia (95%) and Sunni (91%). With roughly 400,000 Syrian refugees already seeking shelter in Jordan, 80% of Jordanians express concern about the Syrian fighting spreading into Jordan. In Turkey, which already harbors nearly 300,000 Syrians who have fled the civil war, 62% say they are apprehensive that the violence could infect their society.

Middle Eastern nations slightly further afield are only marginally less concerned. In Tunisia, 89% worry that the turmoil in Syria could lead to new unrest in other countries. In Egypt, 77% of those surveyed express anxiety that the violence might trigger conflicts elsewhere; as do 74% in the Palestinian territories. Meanwhile, the Israelis, who have fought four major wars with the Syrians, look on with unease. Nearly eight-in-ten (78%) Israelis are concerned that the fighting north of the Golan Heights could eventually lead to instability in other parts of the region.

Few Favor Arming Rebels

Despite such concerns, publics in the region are generally opposed to both Western and Arab governments sending arms and military supplies to anti-government groups in Syria.

Populations in five of the six countries in the region that were surveyed oppose Americans or Europeans supplying the Syrian rebels with weapons. This opposition is particularly strong in Lebanon where 80% of the total public and 98% of Shia Lebanese do not want the West to
get involved. In Jordan (53%) about half the population supports American or European military assistance for the Syrian opposition.

Similarly, only the Jordanians (65%) and Lebanese Sunnis (63%) back Arabs arming the rebels. Nearly all the Shia (97%) surveyed in Lebanon are opposed to such outside intervention.

At the same time, there is no public support in the United States, Western Europe or in Turkey for sending arms and military supplies to the anti-government groups in Syria. Eight-in-ten (82%) Germans oppose such assistance, as do more than two-thirds of the French (69%) and the Turks (65%) and a majority of the British (57%). Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Americans were also against arming the rebels when the survey was taken in the first two weeks of March. Since then evidence has emerged that the Assad government may have used chemical weapons in its fight against opposition forces. In a subsequent Pew Research Center poll taken April 25-28, Americans, by a 45% to 31% margin, favor rather than oppose the U.S. and its allies taking military action against Syria, if it is confirmed that Syria used chemical weapons against anti-government groups.

Meanwhile, the Russian government, long an ally of the Assad regime and a vocal opponent of outside intervention in the Syrian civil war, can claim little backing for its policy from its own people. Just 27% of Russians approve of Moscow’s support of the Syrian government. Most Russians (52%) have no opinion on the issue.

Assad Highly Unpopular

There is little public backing for Syrian president Bashar al-Assad from the mostly Sunni Arab publics in the Middle East. Only the Shia in Lebanon (91%) have a favorable view of him. (Assad comes from a family of Alawites, a branch of Shia Islam.)

Roughly nine-in-ten Lebanese Sunnis (92%), Israelis (91%) and Jordanians (90%) have a negative view of the Syrian leader, as do eight-in-ten Egyptians (81%) and Tunisians (81%) and seven-in-ten Turks (72%). Even the Christians in Lebanon (63%) oppose Assad, despite the relative protection the Assad family has given the Christian community in Syria over the years.

The intensification of the conflict in Syria in the last year has not altered regional views of Assad. He was not liked in 2012 and he is not liked today.

Social networking has spread around the world with remarkable speed. In countries such as Britain, the United States, Russia, the Czech Republic and Spain, about half of all adults now use Facebook and similar websites. These sites are also popular in many lower-income nations, where, once people have access to the internet, they tend to use it for social networking.

Meanwhile, cell phones have become nearly ubiquitous throughout much of the world, and people are using them in a variety of ways, including texting and taking pictures. Smart phones are also increasingly common – roughly half in Britain, the U.S., and Japan have one. Globally, most smart phone users say they visit social networking sites on their phone, while many get job, consumer, and political information.

Technologies like these are especially popular among the young and well educated. In almost every country polled, people under age 30 and those with a college education are more likely to engage in social networking and to use a smart phone.

These are among the key findings from a 21-nation survey conducted by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project from March 17-April 20. The survey also finds that global publics are sharing their views online about a variety of topics, especially popular culture. Across 20 of the nations polled (Pakistan is excluded from this calculation due to the small number of social networking users), a median of 67% of social networkers say they use these sites to share opinions about music and movies. Significant numbers also post their views on community issues, sports and politics. Fewer give their opinions about religion.

Expressing opinions about politics, community issues and religion is particularly common in the Arab world. For instance, in Egypt and Tunisia, two nations at the heart of the Arab Spring, more than six-in-ten social networkers share their views about politics online. In contrast, across 20 of the nations surveyed, a median of only 34% post their political opinions.

Similarly, in Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan, more than seven-in-ten share views on community issues, compared with a cross-national median of just 46%.

There is considerable interest in social networking in low- and middle-income nations. Once people in these countries are online, they generally become involved in social networks at high rates. For instance, the vast majority of internet users in Mexico, Brazil, Tunisia, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, Russia and India are using social networking sites.

Conversely, publics in some more economically developed nations seem less enthusiastic about interacting with others online – especially Japan and Germany, the only two countries where less than half of all internet users participate in social networks. And those Japanese and Germans who do go online for social networking use it less often than others around the world to express thoughts on culture, community, sports, politics and religion.

Social Networking

In 19 of 21 countries, about three-in-ten or more of those polled use sites such as Facebook, including about half in Britain (52%), the U.S. (50%), Russia (50%), Spain (49%), and the Czech Republic (49%). Only in India (6%) and Pakistan (4%) is the percentage of adults who use social networking sites in single digits.¹

In every country polled, use of social networking sites varies by age. In 17 of 21 countries, there is a gap of 50 points or more in usage of social networking sites between those younger than 30 and those 50 or older. This gap is particularly pronounced in Italy, Poland, Britain and Greece, where at least 70 percentage points separate those in the younger group from those in the older group.

Similarly, use of social networking sites varies by education level, with double-digit differences between those with a college degree and those without a college degree in 15 of 18 countries (this finding excludes Mexico, Brazil and Pakistan, where fewer than 100 respondents have a college degree). The widest gap is found in Egypt, where 81% of those with a college degree use social networking sites, compared with just 18% of those with less education.

Among those who participate in social networks, sharing views about music and movies is a popular activity; majorities in 17 countries say they have done this. In China (86%), India (85%), Mexico (84%), Greece (83%), Turkey (78%), Tunisia (77%) and Italy (75%), at least three-quarters have shared their views about music and movies. Sports, on the other hand, is a less common topic, with half or more of users of social networking sites in only seven countries – India, Jordan, Tunisia, Turkey, Egypt, Brazil and China – saying they have shared their opinions about sports.

In Arab countries such as Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt, social networking sites are also a popular forum for expressing views on politics and community issues. More than seven-in-ten users of social networking sites in these countries have posted about community issues on these sites, and at least six-in-ten have shared their views about politics. Italy and Turkey are the only other countries surveyed where majorities of those who use social networking sites have expressed opinions about community issues (64% and 63%, respectively); most in Turkey also have shared their views on politics on these sites (57%).

Users of social networking in Tunisia (63%), Egypt (63%) and Jordan (62%) are also more likely than those in other countries to say they have posted on religion. In fact, in no other nation surveyed has a majority of users of these sites shared views about religion. In 14 countries, only about a third or less have posted on this topic.

Cell Phones Nearly Universal in Much of World

Broad majorities around the world own a cell phone. Three-quarters or more in 18 of the 21 countries surveyed say they have a mobile phone, while at least half say the same in Mexico (63%), India (56%) and Pakistan (52%).

In addition to making phone calls, most respondents say they regularly use their cell phone to send text messages. At least two-thirds of cell-phone owners in 17 countries say they frequently text, including 93% in Mexico and 90% in Lebanon. Turks (60%), Germans (58%), Indians (42%) and Pakistanis (36%) are less likely to send text messages.

Taking pictures or videos with cell phones is somewhat less popular. The Japanese (79%), Mexicans (70%), Americans (67%) and Spanish (67%) are the most likely to regularly use their phones to take a picture or video, while roughly six-in-ten or fewer say the same in the other 17 countries surveyed. Pakistanis (13%) are the least likely to use their mobile phones for such a purpose.

Few cell phone users access the internet on their phones. In 18 of the countries surveyed, fewer than four-in-ten say they regularly use their mobile phone to access the internet. The British (52%), Japanese (51%) and Americans (51%) are most likely to do so.

Smart Phone Users Engaged on Social Networks

Among smart phone users – defined here as those who own a cell phone and regularly use it to access the internet – social networking is very popular.

In 12 countries, at least six-in-ten smart phone users access social networks with their phones. The practice is particularly common in Egypt (79%), Mexico (74%) and Greece (72%). The Japanese (45%) and Chinese (31%), on the other hand, are the least likely to use their phones for connecting with social networks.

Respondents in the U.S., Japan and Europe are most likely to use their smart phones to get information about consumer products, their job or politics. At least four-in-ten in these countries say they use their phone regularly to get information about prices and availability of products or about issues related to their job. And more than a third say the same about accessing political news and information.

Overall, smart phone users in the countries surveyed in the Middle East, Asia and Latin America are less likely to use their phones to gather information, although there are a few exceptions. A majority of smart phone users in India (60%), for example, rely on their mobile phones for information about their job. Egyptians (65%) are particularly likely to search for political news on their cell phones. And the Chinese (48%) are more likely to use their mobile phones to access information about politics than any of the other smart phone activities asked about.

The young are considerably more engaged with their cell phones than their elders. There are double-digit age gaps in most countries for all cell phone activities except making calls. For example, in 19 of the 21 countries surveyed, 18-29 year olds are at least 10 percentage points more likely than those age 50 or older to use their cell phone to access the internet. The biggest differences occur in China (+63 points), Japan (+62), Russia (+62) and Britain (+61).

The way people use their cell phones also varies considerably by education. For example, in 14 countries, respondents with a college education are at least 10 percentage points more likely than those without a college degree to access the internet on their mobile phones. The education gap is particularly large in China (+47), Turkey (+36), Egypt (+32) and Lebanon (+31).

Moreover, just one-third of Americans believe China considers the interests of other countries around the world when making foreign policy decisions. In contrast, eight-in-ten say the U.S. takes the interests of other countries into account.

Among the five expert groups surveyed, majorities share the public’s distrust of China and see that country as a competitor of the U.S. Most also say China does not consider other countries’ interests when making foreign policy decisions.

When asked whether they associate a series of positive and negative traits with the Chinese people, more than seven-in-ten among the general public say the Chinese are hardworking, competitive and inventive. Few say negative characteristics like arrogance, selfishness, rudeness and violence describe the Chinese.

China Seen as a Competitor

Most Americans see China as a competitor of the United States; 66% express this view, while about the same number describe China as a partner (16%) as say it is an enemy (15%).

The view that China is a competitor is especially widespread among college graduates. Nearly eight-in-ten (78%) describe China this way, compared with 67% of those with some college experience and 56% of those with a high school education or less.

Like the general public, experts also tend to see China as a competitor of the U.S.; about three-quarters or more across all groups describe China this way, while 22% or less say China is a partner. Virtually nobody among the expert groups labels China an enemy of the U.S.

Most Say U.S. Cannot Trust China

About two-thirds of the public (68%) say the U.S. cannot trust China too much or at all; just 26% say China can be trusted a great deal or a fair amount. Of the nine countries tested, only Pakistan is seen as less trustworthy than China – 10% of Americans say the U.S. can trust Pakistan. Saudi Arabia ranks about as low as China when it comes to the number of Americans who trust that country. Half or more say the U.S. can trust Britain (78%), Japan (62%), France (59%), Israel (56%) and India (50%).

Young people are far more likely than older respondents to see China as trustworthy. More than four-in-ten people younger than 30 say the U.S. can trust China (43%) compared with fewer than a quarter in older age groups.

Similarly, Democrats are more likely than Republicans and independents to say China can be trusted, although at least 60% across all three partisan groups say the U.S. cannot trust China. More than one-third of Democrats (36%) say China is trustworthy, compared with 24% of Republicans and 21% of independents.

Trust in China is also lacking across the five expert groups; about a third or less say the U.S. can trust China, while solid majorities of at least 65% say China cannot be trusted. In contrast, nearly all respondents across the five groups see Britain and Japan as trustworthy, and majorities say the same about France, Israel and India.

Contrary to views among the general public, half or more of government officials, retired military officers, business and trade leaders, and members of the news media say the U.S. can trust Saudi Arabia; more than four-in-ten scholars also share this view.

China’s Approach to Foreign Policy

About six-in-ten Americans (59%) say China does not take the interests of other countries around the world into account when making foreign policy decisions; just one-third say China considers the interests of other nations. In contrast, 80% say the U.S. considers other countries’ interests, while just 17% say it does not.

The view that China takes the interests of other countries into account is more common among young people; 41% of people younger than 30 offer this view, compared with one-third or less of those ages 30 to 49 (31%), 50 to 64 (33%) and 65 or older (29%).

Education is also a factor in perceptions of China’s approach to foreign policy. Only 23% of college graduates say China takes other countries’ interests into account, while 72% believe it does not. By comparison, 34% of those with some college and 40% of those with a high school education or less say China considers the interests of other countries around the world; 56% of those with some college and 54% with high school or less believe China does not take the interests of other countries into account when making foreign policy decisions.

Majorities of the expert groups surveyed also say China does not take the interests of other countries into account, although a sizable minority of scholars (41%) believe it does. Among the other four groups, fewer than three-in-ten say China considers the interests of other nations, including just 21% of business and trade leaders and former military officials. Like the public, solid majorities of experts say the U.S. takes the interests of other countries into account when making foreign policy decisions.

Chinese Seen as Hardworking and Competitive

At least seven-in-ten Americans describe the Chinese people as hardworking (93%), competitive (89%) and inventive (73%); smaller majorities also say the Chinese are nationalistic (63%) and modern (57%), while a 49%-plurality see them as sophisticated.

Fewer attribute negative traits like aggressiveness (43%), greed (40%), arrogance (36%), selfishness (31%), rudeness (28%) and violence (24%) to the Chinese people. Similarly, not many associate positive traits such as honesty (44%), tolerance (38%) and generosity (28%) with the Chinese.

Americans also think of themselves as hardworking (78%), but fewer describe the American people this way than say the same about the Chinese. On the other hand, more say Americans are modern (84%) and inventive (82%) than say the Chinese are, while about the same percentage describes the American and the Chinese people as competitive and nationalistic. Most Americans attribute positive characteristics like generosity (78%), tolerance (68%), honesty (64%) and sophistication (61%) to the American people. However, more than half also say Americans are greedy (68%), arrogant (63%), selfish (62%), aggressive (58%) and rude (51%).

Across the five expert groups surveyed, there is a far greater consensus than among the general public that building a strong relationship with China should be the most important priority for the U.S. Being tough with China on economic issues is considered a much lower priority, even among retired military officers and trade and business leaders, who largely believe toughness on economic and trade issues is very important for the U.S.

When asked about the Obama administration’s handling of China, slightly more of the public say it is not being tough enough than say the administration is handling it about right; virtually no one says Obama is being too tough with China. In contrast, solid majorities among most expert groups endorse Obama’s China policy.

Among the public and the experts, few say continuing to sell arms to Taiwan and advocating for more freedom for Tibet are very important priorities for the U.S. A small number across the five expert groups say promoting human rights in China should be the most important priority.

Americans who have heard a lot about relations between China and Taiwan are somewhat divided on whether the U.S. should use military force to defend Taiwan if China were to attack the island, with only slightly more saying the U.S. should use force than saying it should not. Among the experts surveyed, most say the U.S. should use force to defend Taiwan if China were to attack it without a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan. There is far less support for U.S. military intervention if an attack from China followed a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan.

Obama’s China Policy

The Obama administration’s handling of China receives somewhat mixed reviews from the public — 45% say Obama is not being tough enough, while 39% say Obama’s China policy is about right. In May 2001, in a survey conducted just weeks after a U.S. spy plane landed on the Chinese island of Hainan after colliding with a Chinese fighter jet, more of the public endorsed George W. Bush’s dealings with China than said Bush was not being tough enough (46% vs. 34%) (see “Public Behind Bush On Key Foreign Issues,” released June 11, 2001, by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press).

As was the case in 2001, views of the administration’s dealings with China are divided along partisan lines. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans (65%) say Obama is not being tough enough, while 27% say his policy is about right. Among Democrats, about half (51%) endorse the president’s policy and 35% believe Obama has not been tough enough. A decade ago, 57% of Republicans said the Bush administration’s handling of China was about right and 32% believed the president wasn’t being tough enough; Democrats were somewhat divided, with 40% saying Bush wasn’t tough enough and 34% saying his China policy was about right.

Of the foreign affairs experts surveyed, retired military officers are the most critical of Obama’s handling of China; about half in this group say the administration is not being tough enough, while about a third believe it is about right. In contrast, majorities among the other groups endorse Obama’s policies, with scholars and government officials being particularly supportive.

When asked to describe in their own words what they believe Obama has done best when dealing with China, experts most often mention the president’s general diplomatic approach to the bilateral relationship. Obama is commended for being balanced and consistent – combining aggressiveness when necessary with cooperation when possible.
Government officials, scholars and retired military officers, in particular, also applaud the Obama administration for refocusing efforts on Asia and regional allies, including the increase of military capabilities in the Pacific. They also believe military-to-military communication between China and the U.S. has improved during Obama’s time in office.

Yet, there are concerns that the president has not made much progress on the trade imbalance; business and trade leaders especially fault him for protectionist policies. Experts across the board are also concerned that the Obama administration has inadequately responded to the theft of intellectual property and cyber attacks on businesses.

Policy Priorities

Most Americans (56%) say it is very important for the U.S. to be tough with China on economic and trade issues. Yet, about the same number (55%) say building a strong relationship with China should be a top policy priority. More than half (53%) also consider promoting human rights in China as very important, while considerably fewer say the same about advocating for more freedom for Tibet (36%) and continuing to sell arms to Taiwan (21%).

The view that promoting human rights in China is very important is more widespread than it was in January 2011, when 40% believed this to be a top priority for the U.S. (see “Public’s Global Focus Turns from Europe to Asia,” released January 12, 2011, by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press). Democrats and Republicans alike are more inclined than they were in 2011 to say promoting human rights in China should be a very important priority; 58% of Democrats and 56% of Republicans currently express this view, compared with 43% and 33%, respectively, in 2011; opinions have been more stable among independents (50% now vs. 41% in 2011).³

Across the five expert groups, majorities of at least eight-in-ten consider building a strong relationship with China a very important priority for the U.S. However, there is less consensus regarding other aspects of U.S. policy. For example, about six-in-ten government officials and business and trade leaders want the U.S. to be tough with China on economic and trade issues, but fewer than half in the other three groups consider this a top priority. And while promoting human rights in China is seen as very important by 46% of government officials and 41% of members of the news media, about one-third of business and trade leaders and about one-in-five scholars and former military officers share this view. Just 30% or fewer across the five groups consider advocating for more freedom for Tibet and continuing to sell arms to Taiwan to be very important priorities for the U.S.

When describing in their own words what they believe should be the top priorities for U.S. policies toward China, experts across the board cite economic issues such as the bilateral trade imbalance, the theft of intellectual property and economic espionage through cyber attacks by China. Among business and trade leaders, China’s currency valuation is also mentioned as a major issue.

Experts also consider managing the international balance of power between the two nations a top priority, though they are divided on the best approach. While many say it is important to contain China by preventing a build-up of its military and limiting its growing influence in other areas of the world, there is also a desire to avoid conflict between the two by increasing military-to-military communication and learning to accommodate China’s growth as a world power.

Partisan Differences on Key Priorities

For the most part, among the general public, Republicans, Democrats and independents offer similar views of U.S. policy priorities toward China. There are partisan differences, however, when it comes to the importance of building a strong relationship with China and being tough with the Asian nation on economic and trade issues.

Republicans are far more likely than Democrats and independents to say it is very important for the U.S. to be tough with China on economic and trade issues. About two-thirds (68%) of Republicans express this view, compared with 53% of Democrats and independents.

Conversely, about six-in-ten Democrats and independents (59% each) believe building a strong relationship with China should be a top priority for the U.S., while 48% of Republicans agree.

Areas of Collaboration and Sources of Conflict

Across the five expert groups, the economy is most frequently offered as the best arena for cooperation between the U.S. and China. Given the size of the two nations’ economies, many believe that it is in both countries’ interests to collaborate on fostering global economic stability as well as developing equally beneficial interdependence.

Many also mention the possibility of the U.S. and China jointly addressing common threats, such as climate change, terrorism, health epidemics, instability in the Middle East, and security on the Korean Peninsula as an avenue for cooperation. And all the expert groups agree that the exchange of ideas and people between the two world powers – from cultural interactions to joint scientific research – can improve the bilateral relationship.

On the other hand, when asked about the most likely sources of conflict, the top concern is that regional territorial disputes, such as in the South China Sea, could lead to escalating tensions. Many also say that U.S. efforts to maintain its leadership in the region or Chinese attempts to assert itself militarily could result in a competition for dominance in the Pacific.

Respondents in all expert groups also express concerns about power struggles for influence in other areas of the world, and many raise the possibility of a clash between the U.S. and China over third-party actions, such as North Korea or Iran. Retired military officers and business leaders in particular mention the need for scarce natural resources as a key source of conflict both within the region and other areas of the world.

Among business and trade leaders, economic issues – such as a trade war, theft of intellectual property and currency valuation – are most often cited as likely causes of deteriorating relations between the U.S. and China.

Using Force to Defend Taiwan

Just 10% of Americans say they have heard a lot about relations between China and Taiwan; 54% have heard a little and 34% have heard nothing at all about this issue.

About half (48%) of those who have heard a lot about relations between China and Taiwan say the U.S. should use military force to defend Taiwan if China were to use force against the island; 43% say the U.S. should not use military force to defend Taiwan.

Among the expert groups surveyed, views on whether the U.S. should use military force to defend Taiwan depend on the circumstances of a potential attack by China. Majorities across the five groups would support the use of U.S. military force to defend Taiwan if China moved against the island without a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan.

At least six-in-ten government officials, scholars and retired military officers express this opinion, as do somewhat smaller majorities of business and trade leaders and members of the news media.

If China were to use military force following a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan, however, at least six-in-ten government officials, business and trade leaders, scholars and members of the media say the U.S. should not use military force to defend Taiwan; half of the retired military officers surveyed share this view.

There is also little consensus on views of the extent to which the U.S. relies on military strength to achieve its foreign policy goals. The public is nearly evenly divided between those who say their country relies on military might too much and those who say it does so about the right amount. Business and trade leaders and retired military officers also express mixed views, while solid majorities of the news media, scholars and government officials believe the U.S. relies on its military strength too much.

When asked what would make the world more stable in the long run – the U.S. remaining the world’s leading superpower, China replacing the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower, or a balance of power between the two nations – more than half in all expert groups choose a scenario in which the U.S. maintains its position as the dominant power. Still, considerable minorities say a balance of power would lead to more stability.

U.S. Leadership Role

About three-quarters (74%) of the public favor a shared leadership role for the U.S.; 9% say the U.S. should be the single world leader, while 12% say it should have no leadership role at all.

Among those who say the U.S. should play a shared leadership role, nearly twice as many think the U.S. should be no more or less assertive than the other leading nations as say it should be the most assertive of the leading nations (62% vs. 33%).

Experts also believe the U.S. should play a shared leadership role in the world; at least eight-in-ten in each group express this view. Retired military officers are somewhat more likely than those in the other four groups to say the U.S. should be the single world leader, but few retired military officers offer this opinion.

Contrary to the opinion expressed by the general public, however, majorities of retired military officers, scholars, government officials and business and trade leaders who favor a shared leadership role say the U.S. should be the most assertive of the leading nations; still, sizable minorities in each group believe the U.S. should be no more or less assertive than other leading nations.

Members of the news media who say the U.S. should play a shared leadership role are about evenly divided between those who believe the U.S. should be the most assertive of the leading nations and those who think it should be no more or less assertive than other leading nations.

Global Balance of Power

More than half across the expert groups surveyed believe the world will be more stable in the long run if the U.S. remains the leading superpower, but sizable minorities in each group say a balance of power between the U.S. and China would lead to greater stability. None of the experts surveyed believe the world will be more stable if China replaces the U.S. as the leading superpower.

The view that the world will be more stable if the U.S. continues to be the global superpower is somewhat more common among retired military officers, but at least six-in-ten government officials, scholars and members of the news media share this view. Opinions are somewhat more divided among business and trade leaders.

U.S. Use of Military Strength

Four-in-ten Americans believe the U.S. relies on military strength too much to achieve its foreign policy goals, and about the same number (44%) say their country relies on its military strength about the right amount; only 10% of Americans say the U.S. relies on military might too little.

Republican views on U.S. reliance on military strength differ sharply from those of Democrats and independents. Most Republicans (54%) say the U.S. relies on military strength about the right amount, while the rest are about evenly divided between those who say their country relies on military strength too much (22%) and those who say it relies on military strength too little (20%).

In contrast, close to half of Democrats and independents (47% and 46%, respectively) say the U.S. relies too much on its military might, while about four-in-ten Democrats (42%) and independents (40%) say their country relies on military strength about the right amount. Just 6% of Democrats and 9% of independents would like to see the U.S. rely on its military more than it currently does.

Among the experts surveyed, members of the news media are particularly inclined to believe the U.S. relies on military strength too much to achieve its foreign policy goals; about eight-in-ten say this is the case. More than six-in-ten scholars and government officials also agree that that U.S. relies excessively on its military might. Retired military officers and business and trade leaders offer more mixed views. Among retired military officers, only slightly more say the U.S. relies on military strength too much than say the U.S. relies on it about the right amount; among business and trade leaders, just slightly more say U.S. reliance on military might is about right than say it is excessive.

Results for the general public survey are based on telephone interviews conducted April 30 – May 13, 2012, among a national sample of 1,004 adults 18 years of age or older living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (600 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 404 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 195 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI). Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples was used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older.

The combined landline and cell phone samples are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the March 2011 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample is also weighted to match current patterns of telephone status, based on extrapolations from the 2011 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for the full sample is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points; the margin of error for Form 1 (n=477) and Form 2 (n=527) is plus or minus 5.3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Foreign Affairs Experts Survey

Results for the survey of American foreign affairs experts are based on 305 web and telephone interviews conducted March 1-May 15, 2012, with respondents from five subgroups: 54 government officials; 52 retired military officers; 74 business and trade leaders; 93 scholars, think tank experts and NGO leaders; and 32 members of the news media.

The goal of the survey was to identify high-ranking individuals with titles or positions that denote responsibility for matters related to national security or foreign policy. Among retired military personnel, those with ranks of colonel or captain or above, depending on the service, were included; in civilian or non-governmental agencies, those with ranks equivalent to that of a deputy office director or higher were surveyed. The survey was conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI). Interviewing was primarily self-administered online, but a phone interview option was made available to any respondent who requested it (215 interviews were completed online and 90 by telephone).

Sampling procedures for each subgroup are outlined below.

Government

The government sample includes government officials in the legislative and executive branches. A total of 300 people in the legislative branch were invited to participate in the survey, including members of Congress and senior professional staff (177 from the U.S. House of Representatives and 123 from the Senate). The sample was designed to reflect the party composition of each body. While 91 Representatives and Senators were contacted, no elected official completed the survey.

An additional 300 people from various executive departments, as well as the Office of the President and independent federal agencies, were invited to participate. The main source of names for the sample of officials in the legislative and executive branches was the online Leadership Library database.

Retired U.S. Military Officers

A total of 269 retired military officers were invited to participate in the survey. The main sources used were the Leadership Library and LexisNexis. The LexisNexis search identified retired military officers who were quoted in news articles about East Asia, China, national security and other foreign policy issues.

Scholars, Think Tank Experts and NGO Leaders

A total of 250 invitations to participate were sent to people in this segment, with Leadership Library as the primary source. The list from Leadership Library was supplemented using a Google Scholar search with the key words “U.S. China security.” Articles written since 2010 were reviewed for relevant names. In addition, faculty from top graduate schools in international politics with an emphasis on China or Asia were selected.

Business and Trade Leaders

A total of 450 business and trade leaders were identified using the Leadership Library as the primary source. In addition, a list of the Fortune 500 top executives was used to identify business executives with international responsibilities, especially in China and Asia more broadly.

News Media

A total of 250 members of the news media were invited to participate. The list was compiled using the Leadership Library as the primary source. The list was supplemented with names from the Cision MediaSource database and from Google Scholar and EBSCO searches. Reporters, editors, bureau chiefs and commentators with a focus on China, Asia, or other foreign policy topics were selected.

Contact Procedures

Requests for participation were sent to a total of 1,819 experts. Selected individuals were mailed an advance letter explaining the purpose of the study and encouraging their participation. The advance letter included the web address where the survey was hosted online by PSRAI and a unique username so each respondent could log into and complete the interview online. Advance letters were printed on specialized letterhead showing the three U.S. sponsors of the study: the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Pew Research Center, and the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Correspondingly the letter was signed by the three representatives of these institutions: Jessica Tuchman Mathews, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center; and J. Stapleton Roy, director of the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Advance letters were mailed out to 1,455 potential respondents on February 24, 2012. A second batch of advance letters was sent to an additional 364 experts on March 7, 2012.

Following the advance letter, subsequent requests for participation were sent primarily by email to selected individuals who had an available email address, had yet to complete the survey, and who had not explicitly refused to participate. Following the first batch of advance letters, initial email contact was made on March 6, 2012 (n=1,086). Subsequent to the second batch, an email was sent on March 21, 2012 (n=253). An additional email reminder was sent to all selected individuals who had not yet participated and had not explicitly refused on April 25, 2012 (n=774). On March 7, 2012, phone calling began to individuals from the first batch of advance letters who lacked email addresses, as well as those whose email invitations were returned as undeliverable, in an effort to gather working email addresses and encourage participation online. Phone calls to the second batch of contacted individuals began on April 2, 2012. Calls to both groups continued until the end of the field period. On March 14, 2012, phone calling began to selected individuals with email addresses who had not yet completed the survey, but not explicitly refused to participate.

The overall response rate for the survey of experts was 20%. The response rates for each subgroup were as follows: 11% for government officials, 25% for retired military officers, 18% for business and trade leaders, 40% for scholars, and 16% for members of the news media.

Still, Americans do not rank China’s emergence as a world power as the greatest threat to the U.S. More describe global issues such as Iran’s and North Korea’s nuclear programs, Islamic extremist groups, international financial instability and drug-related violence in Mexico as major threats to the U.S. than describe the challenges posed by China this way.

When asked which countries in particular represent the greatest danger to the U.S., about a quarter of the public names China, more than cite any other country; 16% mention Iran and 13% volunteer that North Korea poses the greatest danger.

Like the general public, more retired military officers name China than name any other nation as the country that represents the greatest danger to the U.S. In contrast, Iran is cited more frequently than any other country by government officials, business and trade leaders and members of the news media. Scholars are evenly divided, with the same number volunteering China and Iran as the country that poses the greatest danger.

The experts surveyed generally express less concern than the public about China’s emergence as a world power. International financial instability tops the list of major threats across the five groups, but majorities in all of the groups also consider Islamic extremism and political instability in Pakistan a major threat to the U.S.

Global Threats

About half of Americans (52%) consider China’s emergence as a world power a major threat to the well-being of the United States, while 35% say it is a minor threat and 9% say it is not a threat. Compared with other possible international threats, however, China’s ascent does not rank among the public’s top concerns; at least six-in-ten see Iran’s nuclear program (70%), Islamic extremist groups (70%), North Korea’s nuclear program (69%), international financial instability (65%) and drug-related violence in Mexico (61%) as major threats to the U.S.

Older Americans and Republicans are especially concerned about China’s emergence as a world power. About six-in-ten people ages 50 to 64 (62%) and 65 or older (59%) consider this a major threat to the U.S., compared with 48% of 30- to 49-year-olds and 43% of people younger than 30. Similarly, 60% of Republicans consider the rise of China as a world power a major threat, while 48% of Democrats share this view.

With the exception of retired military officers, few among the expert groups surveyed consider China’s emergence as a world power a major threat. Fewer than a third of government officials, business and trade leaders, scholars and members of the news media see this as a threat, while 46% of former military officers express this view.

Across the five groups, international financial instability tops the list of concerns, with at least eight-in-ten saying this is a major threat to the U.S. Experts are also generally more concerned than the public about political instability in Pakistan, while drug-related violence in Mexico and North Korea’s nuclear program rank considerably lower as major threats among foreign affairs experts than among the general public.

China Seen as Country that Poses Greatest Danger

When asked which country represents the greatest danger to the U.S., more Americans volunteer China (26%) than name any other country. Iran, the country that receives the second-most mentions, is viewed as the greatest danger by 16% of the public, while 13% name North Korea.

In a January 2012 survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, more volunteered Iran than any other nation as the country that posed the greatest danger to the U.S.; 28% cited Iran, while 22% named China (see “Public Priorities: Deficit Rising, Terrorism Slipping,” released January 23, 2012, by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press).

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to name China as the greatest danger. About three-in-ten Republicans (31%) name China, compared with 21% of Democrats; 28% of independents offer this view. Republicans are also more likely than Democrats and independents to cite Iran as the country that poses the greatest danger to the U.S. (26% vs. 13% and 16%, respectively).

Opinions about which country represents the greatest danger to the U.S. vary across the five expert groups surveyed. Retired military officers are more likely than any other group to volunteer China; half do so, compared with fewer than three-in-ten among the other four groups; 38% of retired military officers cite Iran. Among scholars, the same number names China as cites Iran, while about twice as many business and trade leaders and members of the news media name Iran over China as the most dangerous nation. More in government also name Iran than any other country.

China’s Economic Strength

The public views China primarily as an economic threat rather than a military one; 59% are more troubled by China’s economic strength, while 28% say the country’s military strength is a greater concern.

College graduates are four times more likely to express concern about China’s economic strength than its military strength (70% vs. 16%), and those with some college experience are more than twice as likely to view China as an economic rather than a military threat (63% vs. 26%). Opinions are more divided among those with no more than a high school education; 49% are more concerned about China’s economy, while 38% see that country’s military strength as a greater threat.

Despite the public’s concern about China’s economic strength, majorities across the five expert groups see a positive outcome to the Asian nation’s growing economy. Majorities in all five groups believe China will become more democratic as a result of economic growth.

Debt, Trade Deficit and Loss of Jobs Top Concerns

Nearly eight-in-ten people (78%) say the large amount of American debt that is held by China is a very serious problem for the U.S.; majorities also consider the loss of U.S. jobs to China (71%) and the U.S. trade deficit with China (61%) to be very serious problems for their country.

Beyond these economic concerns, about half also see China’s impact on the global environment (50%), cyber attacks from China (50%), China’s growing military power (49%) and China’s policies on human rights (48%) as major problems. Just 27% express similar concern about tensions between China and Taiwan.

Republicans and independents are more concerned than Democrats about economic issues related to China. For example, while 71% of Republicans and 66% of independents say the U.S. trade deficit with China is a very serious problem, just over half of Democrats (54%) express similar concern. And while solid majorities across partisan groups see the loss of U.S. jobs to China and the large amount of American debt held by China as very serious, somewhat fewer Democrats say this is the case.

In contrast, Democrats and independents are considerably more likely than Republicans to say China’s impact on the global environment is a major problem; 54% of Democrats and 53% of independents share this view, compared with just 41% of Republicans.

For the most part, foreign affairs experts are far less concerned than the general public about issues related to China. For example, fewer than four-in-ten in each group say the loss of U.S. jobs to China, the U.S. trade deficit with China, China’s growing military power and China’s policies on human rights are very serious problems for the U.S.

Of the 11 issues tested, including three that were asked of the experts but not of the general public – China’s intellectual property infringement, territorial disputes over the South China Sea, and China’s exchange rate policy – only cyber attacks from China are considered a very serious problem by at least half across all five groups. Retired military officers are especially concerned about this, with nearly nine-in-ten saying it is a very serious problem. Majorities of retired military officers and business and trade leaders and half of government officials also see China’s intellectual property infringement as a major problem for the U.S.; about four-in-ten scholars and members of the news media express similar concern.

The following organizations have partnered together in this endeavor:

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing cooperation between nations and promoting active international engagement by the United States. Founded in 1910, its work is nonpartisan and dedicated to achieving practical results. Carnegie is pioneering the first global think tank, with flourishing offices now in Washington, Moscow, Beijing, Beirut, and Brussels. These five locations include the centers of world governance and the places whose political evolution and international policies will most determine the near-term possibilities for international peace and economic advance. The Carnegie Asia Program in Beijing and Washington provides clear and precise analysis to policymakers on the complex economic, security, and political developments in the Asia-Pacific region.

Formed in 2004, the Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. A neutral source of data and analysis, it does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. The Center’s work is often cited by policymakers, journalists and academics, as well as advocates from across the political spectrum. The Pew Global Attitudes Project conducts public opinion surveys around the world on a broad array of subjects ranging from people’s assessments of their own lives to their views about the current state of the world and important issues of the day. More than 300,000 interviews in 59 countries have been conducted as part of the project.

Inaugurated in 2008, the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars is dedicated to promoting greater awareness of the U.S.-China relationship and its impact on both countries and the world. It does so by exploring the political, economic, historical, and cultural factors that underlie the respective behavior patterns and world views of China and the United States. The Institute is non-partisan and committed to improving American expertise about China as well as Chinese knowledge about the United States.

The China Strategic Culture Promotion Association is a national non-profit civil society group composed of experts, scholars and social activists who are engaged in studies of international issues, the Taiwan issue and cultural issues. The association was founded in Beijing on January 5, 2011, aiming at promoting security and stability in the Asia-Pacific region and encouraging peaceful development on both sides of the Taiwan Strait through studies, dissemination and exchange of Chinese strategic culture.

Founded in 1988, the Research Center for Contemporary China at Peking University is a self-financed nonprofit academic institution that conducts statistically rigorous interviews and polling in China on a wide variety of subjects, including issues related to China’s foreign relations. The RCCC focuses on promoting rigorous social science scholarship in China; generating systematic social and economic data for scholars, government agencies, and the business community; integrating Chinese social science into the international scholarly community; and providing institutional assistance for Chinese and international scholars conducting research in China.