Special to Nikkei Weekly

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s announcement March 15 that Japan will join negotiations to create a Trans-Pacific Partnership with the U.S. and other Pacific Basin nations won early support from the Japanese people, according to snap surveys following his statement. The decision was also welcomed in official circles in Washington, D.C., where the Obama administration has long supported Japan becoming party to the talks.

But the attitude of the American public toward what is, essentially, a free trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. remains unclear. Unlike in Japan, the TPP has received relatively little news coverage in the U.S. It is not a topic of broad public debate. And there have been no major public opinion polls that have asked Americans specifically about the negotiations since Abe’s announcement.

The American political environment surrounding the talks can only be deduced from related economic and public opinion data.

For some American industries, for organized labor and for some trade experts, scars from the U.S.-Japan trade wars of the 1980s and early 1990s remain tender. Thus, the upcoming TPP negotiations may be contentious. Yet, among the general American public, there is support for deeper integration of the two economies through greater trade. So the political context in which these talks will take place is far more supportive than ever before.

A quarter century ago ties between Washington and Tokyo were characterized by public distrust and animosity. Talk of trade wars dominated newspaper headlines. And political rhetoric often verged on “Japan Bashing.”

In 1989, 63% of Americans believed Japan practiced unfair trade. More than half, 53%, wanted to increase tariffs on products imported from Japan. In 1995, 61% of the American public approved of President Bill Clinton’s decision to impose import duties on imports of luxury Japanese cars. And by 1997, 64% still saw Tokyo as being unfair.

And American critics of Japan participating in TPP will point to the ongoing U.S. trade imbalance with Japan, especially in the automotive sector, as reason for Washington not to conclude a TPP deal with Tokyo. The U.S. ran a $76.3 billion merchandise trade deficit with Japan in 2012, up 21% from 2011. And in 2010, the last year for which there is complete data, Japan shipped 1.5 million cars and light trucks to the U.S. Japan imported 14,000 such vehicles from the U.S. And the U.S.-Japan auto trade imbalance accounted for two-thirds of the overall U.S. trade deficit with Japan that year.

Yet, despite such figures and periodic trade tensions, Americans have generally held a favorable opinion of Japan. In 1990, near the high point of the Washington-Tokyo battles over trade in autos, rice and other goods, 63% of Americans nonetheless thought well of Japan, according to a survey by the Times Mirror Corporation. (Although all such opinion is relative, that same year 77% of Americans approved of Germany.) By 2009, 67% of Americans still felt favorably disposed toward Japan, according to the Pew Research Center.

And, a generation after significant anti-Japanese sentiment among the American people, there is significant support for improving trade relations between the U.S. and Japan. According to a 2010 survey, 60% Americans now want to increase trade with Japan, compared with 58% who would like to deepen commercial ties with the European Union and only 45% who want to boost trade with China. And a 2012 poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that two-thirds of the American public put a high priority on building a regional free trade area with the U.S. and East Asian countries.

So why the change? Despite the bilateral trade imbalance, U.S. exports to Japan are at a record high, up 37% from 2009. And a study by Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry estimates that the TPP would boost the U.S. economy by 0.11 percent, with Japan accounting for about 70 percent of that benefit. While this economic lift might appear insignificant, the benefits would be roughly equivalent to the projected payoff for the U.S. from the now moribund Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. This may be why, of the 113 comments received by the U.S. government on the issue of Japan entering the TPP, 100 were supportive, only 8 were opposed, and 5 indifferent.

Another reason may be that China has replaced Japan as America’s principal trade competitor, both in fact and in the minds of the American people. In 1990, Japan accounted for 40.7% of the U.S. merchandise trade deficit. China made up just 10.3%. By 2012, Japan accounted for only 10.5% of the U.S. global imbalance. China was responsible for 43.3%.

It is little wonder then that today 41% of Americans see China as the world’s leading economic power and thus the principal challenger to American economic preeminence. And according to a recent Pew Research survey, 49% of Americans want to be tough with Beijing on economic matters. By comparison, only 6% cite Japan as an economic powerhouse today compared with 46% who thought Tokyo was the top dog in 1990.

A more positive bilateral public disposition is no assurance of success for the TPP negotiations. Washington will want openings of the Japanese rice and auto markets that Tokyo will resist. As the talks become more acrimonious, public opinion on both sides of the Pacific could sour. But clearly these negotiations begin in a public opinion environment that is far more favorable than that which existed a generation ago.

Special to CNN

As Americans make their New Year’s resolutions, gazing into their crystal balls in anticipation of 2013, they are pessimistic about the economy, doubtful about Washington avoiding the fiscal cliff and worried about rising inequality and economic unfairness. Preoccupied with issues at home, they want to avoid getting dragged deeper into conflicts in the Middle East, but nonetheless are willing to take military action against Iran to halt Tehran’s nuclear weapons program.

Downbeat domestic attitudes coupled with reticence about international engagement poses challenges for a world that still may need a strong United States.

After a rise in optimism about the economy in the run up to the U.S. presidential election in November 2012, Americans’ economic outlook has turned more negative on the eve of the New Year. A quarter of the population says the economy will be worse off 12 months from now, up from just 8 percent in September – the highest level of U.S. pessimism since June 2011. Just 37 percent expect the economy to be better off in 2013, down from 43 percent in September.

Given the U.S. economy’s driving role in the global economy, such American pessimism does not bode well for Europe, now mired in recession, nor for China, just poised for a recovery.

Some Americans’ pessimism about 2013 may be driven by the fact that a plurality (49 percent) think that the United States will be unable to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff on January 1, 2013 because the Congress and the White House will fail to reach agreement on a debt reduction strategy. And they are no more optimistic about the long-term prospects of getting the country’s finances in order. Just 44 percent say the country will have made significant progress on the debt five years from now.

Another source of pessimism stems from rising concern about inequality and class conflict. Four-in-ten Americans now strongly believe that the rich are getting richer and the poor poorer, up from 28 percent in 2002. More than half think that the U.S. economic system favors the wealthy. And just over two-thirds think that there are conflicts between the rich and the poor, an increase of 21 percentage points since 2009.

In 2013, there may be legislation to narrow the rich-poor gap. Certainly, more than two-thirds of the public backs raising taxes on the top 2 percent of the income earners in the United States, a central issue in the fiscal cliff debate.

But there is no sense that the American people are on the verge of class conflict in 2013. Polls show they just want a better chance of achieving success themselves – they do not want redistributive government policies, they want ones that give everyone a fair shot at success, reflecting bedrock American belief in the individual’s ability to succeed through hard work.

Internationally, in 2013, Americans would like to stop the world and just get off. More than eight-in-ten think that Washington should pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems at home. Such isolationism has a long history in the United States. But it is on the rise, up 10 percentage points in just the last decade.

This aversion to engagement could have an impact next year on U.S. policies in the Middle East. Six-in-ten Americans want the Obama administration to be less involved in the region, especially in leadership changes, such as the possible change in Damascus. With regard to the war in Syria, a similar percentage say that the United States does not have a responsibility to do something about the fighting there, a sentiment in potential conflict with president Obama’s vow to intervene if the Syrian government moves to use chemical weapons in the conflict.

2013 will also be a fateful year for the U.S. presence in Afghanistan, as the White House and Pentagon work out the drawdown schedule for the American troops there. For most of the American public, this can’t happen quickly enough. Six-in-ten want the troops removed as soon as possible, up from just 40 percent in 2010.

The desire for disengagement is not evident, however, with regard to the public’s views about Iran. Americans see Tehran’s nuclear weapons program as the greatest international threat to the well-being of the United States. And more than half (56 percent) think that it is more important to take a firm stand with Iran than to avoid a military conflict. This resolve could get tested in the New Year.

A similar public willingness to support confrontation contrary to general isolationist sentiment can be expected in Washington’s relations with Beijing in 2013. Nearly half of Americans think that their government should get tougher on China and such sentiment is up nine percentage points in a year-and-a-half. The Obama administration has already brought more cases against China in the World Trade Organization than did the Bush administration. Americans would seem to support more of the same in 2013.

So the American public looks to 2013 with a mixture of economic pessimism, frustration with domestic economic inequities, isolationism and a touch of continued assertiveness. This is an inward-looking America, but one that can be provoked.

Special to The German Marshall Fund of the United States

The 2012 U.S. presidential election was marked by the two candidates — the incumbent Democrat Barack Obama and the Republican challenger Mitt Romney — competing over who would be tougher on China if elected. What does Obama’s return to the White House portend for U.S.-China economic relations? The U.S. public wants Washington to ratchet up the pressure on Beijing, but history suggests that there are geo-political constraints to doing so.

European, U.S., and Chinese observers of the U.S.-China relationship may wonder whether commitments made in the heat of a presidential election really matter once a candidate becomes president. In general, they do. One of President Obama’s unbroken pledges in his first term was to be tougher on China than George W. Bush, and over the last four years the Obama administration has filed more trade cases against China than his predecessor.

Thus it is reasonable to assume that Obama will continue to press China on economic and trade issues, especially when buttressed by the support of the U.S. public. However, experience suggests a more cautionary conclusion. For at least the last three decades, whenever the U.S. position as the world’s economic and strategic hegemon has been threatened, U.S. presidents and presidential candidates have promised to face down the foreign challenger: first Japan and now China.

As a candidate in 1992, Bill Clinton vowed to be tougher on Japan and China than his predecessor George H.W. Bush. But in 1994, on the verge of filing a major trade case against Japanese auto policy, with the possibility such a move would destabilize financial markets, Clinton backed down. Similarly, after campaigning against the “butchers of Beijing” and withholding most favored nation trading status from China in an attempt to leverage a better human rights record, Clinton relented and eventually championed China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. His successor, George W. Bush, criticized Clinton for treating China as a “strategic partner” and then proceeded to treat China as a “responsible stakeholder.”

When campaign promises clash with the demands of governing, the latter often prevail. But this does not mean that the economic and political context of the current U.S.-China relationship can be ignored. The bilateral trade relationship remains a destabilizing factor, fostering political support for confrontational policies, with the possibility that China’s growing foreign investment in the United States could serve to either aggravate tensions or ameliorate them over time.

By more than two-to-one (65% to 29%), Americans see relations with China as good, according to a 2012 Pew Global Attitudes survey. And by about four-to-one (66% to 15%), they see China as a competitor not an enemy.

But such amorphous good feelings belie underlying economic concerns. About two-thirds (68%) of Americans think China is untrustworthy and nearly three-in-five (59%) worry about Beijing’s economic strength. In its 2012 Transatlantic Trends survey, the German Marshall Fund found the concern: 59% of Americans said that they see China as an economic threat. As a result, the Pew survey showed that more Americans think it is important to get tougher on China (49%) than it is to build a stronger relationship (42%). And support for a more hard-nosed stance is up nine percentage points since March 2011.

Such sentiment grows out of Americans’ widespread concern about the trade imbalance, which accounts for 42% of the total U.S. merchandise trade deficit and is up 6.8% in the first three-quarters of 2012 over 2011. About three-in five Americans (61%) say the U.S. trade deficit with China is a very serious problem. More than seven-in-ten (71%) believe that the loss of jobs to China is very serious. And 78% think that the large amount of U.S. debt held by China, a direct consequence of the trade imbalance, is very serious.

But this is where the election might matter. Romney lost, and it was Romney supporters who were most supportive of the next president confronting China. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans backed getting tougher with Beijing, up 11 percentage points in just a year. Democrats, on the other hand, prioritized building stronger economic relations with China (53%) over getting tougher with China (39%). Democrats’ backing for confrontation was up 6 points since 2011, but it remained the minority sentiment among those in Obama’s party.

Similarly, Republicans (71%) were more worried about the trade deficit with China than Democrats (54%). Republicans were also more concerned about the loss of U.S. jobs to China, by 76% to 67%. And they were more likely to say the U.S. debt held by the Chinese was a very serious problem, by 87% to 75%.

The polling data are clear: Democrats are strongly concerned about the trade imbalance, the loss of U.S. jobs, and Chinese holding of U.S. debt. But the fact that their negative sentiments are less intense may give Obama more room to maneuver on China policy, especially if China lessens its export dependence and pursues economic growth through domestic consumption.

So what will be the pillars of the Obama administration’s economic policy toward China in its second term?

The first will likely be more complaints about Chinese subsidies and trade practices filed with the WTO, given the president’s campaign promises and his record during his first term. Washington has been relatively successful with such cases in the past, and pursuing multilateral dispute settlements has the added advantage of avoiding a direct bilateral confrontation with China.

The second will be the pursuit of trade agreements that notably do not include China. The most important of these is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free trade agreement among a growing list of nations bordering the Pacific. It is the Obama administration’s avowed aim to construct a TPP with standards so high — especially rules regarding behavior by state-owned enterprises — that China could never join without transforming its economic system. This stance in part reflects the fact that two-thirds (67%) of the U.S. public believe China practices unfair trade, according to a 2012 survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

The likely 2013 launch of a U.S.-European Union free trade negotiation — effectively a Trans-Atlantic Partnership, a bookend for the TPP — primarily reflects majority (58%) sentiment in the United States that increased trade with Europe would be a good thing for the United States. But it can also be seen as an attempt to establish U.S.-European, rather than Chinese, technical and regulatory standards as global business norms.

The Obama administration is unlikely to label China a currency manipulator, which is something Mitt Romney promised he would do on his first day in office. In Obama’s first term, the White House had multiple opportunities to do so and declined, even though the renminbi was weaker against the dollar than it is now.

The unknowable factor in future U.S.-China economic relations is the political impact of what is expected to be growing Chinese foreign direct investment in the United States. Chinese investment flows to the United States are expected to grow significantly in the years ahead. And experience with Japan suggests that if such investment creates and preserves jobs (and recent data suggests much Chinese investment is doing just that), Chinese investment may not create significant new political frictions.

U.S.-China economic relations are driven by underlying fundamentals and geo-political realities, not U.S. campaign rhetoric. Nevertheless, U.S. elected leaders ignore public opinion at their peril. Unless and until the U.S. trade deficit shrinks (lowering the United States’ dependence on Chinese loans to fund that debt) and domestic job growth rebounds, there is likely to be public animosity toward China in the United States and bilateral economic frictions. While history suggests that these frictions are manageable, they will pose political headaches for both U.S. and Chinese leaders that could periodically adversely affect the strategic relationship.

As economic and geopolitical competition grows between the U.S. and China, Americans and Chinese have hardened their views about each other. The desire of Americans to get tougher with China on economic relations has injected that issue into the U.S. presidential campaign. And, for China’s part, views about relations with the U.S. have become significantly more negative in the last two years.

These trends come against a backdrop where the competition is seen keenly by publics around the world. A Pew Global Attitudes survey conducted in spring, 2011 found that, in 15 of 22 nations, the balance of opinion is that China will replace the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower, or already has.

Perceptions of China’s economic power have been on the rise since 2008, and the spring 2012 Global Attitudes survey found that a median of 41% in 21 countries named China as the world’s economic leader compared with 37% who named the U.S.  Americans were almost evenly divided on the question while, ironically, the Chinese public rated the U.S. as the top economic power over their own country by a 48% to 29% margin.

While nearly two-thirds of Americans (65%) in an April-May survey rated overall relations between the U.S. and China as good compared with 29% who said they were bad, that masks more negative sentiments about Chinese intentions and growing concerns about a range of economic issues.¹

Asked how much the U.S. could trust China, 68% of Americans answered not too much or not at all compared with 26% who say China can be trusted a great deal or a fair amount. Republicans and independents hold that view strongly (74% and 73% respectively), and while Democratic sentiment on the question is less pronounced, it is still strong, at 61%.

As for the Chinese, their views about the U.S. have shifted substantially since 2010. The number of Chinese who regard the U.S. favorably has fallen 15 percentage points in the last two years, from 58% to 43%.²

This has been accompanied by a sharp change in the Chinese view of their relationship with the U.S. Where 68% of Chinese saw the relationship as one of cooperation in 2010, only 39% hold that view now, and the number of those who see the relationship as a hostile one has grown from 8% to 26%.

Chinese confidence in President Obama has also declined. Currently, 38% of Chinese express confidence that Obama will do the right thing in world affairs compared with 52% in 2010 and 62% in a 2009 poll conducted shortly after Obama took office. The 24-point drop since 2009 in China exceeded that of any other country which Pew had surveyed during that period.

Although the competition between U.S. and China has included military and diplomatic strategies to extend their influence, Americans are primarily concerned about the economic challenge. About six-in-ten (59%) say their biggest concern is China’s economic strength while only 28% say it is that country’s military power.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans (66%) regard China as a competitor (compared with 16% who call it a partner and 15% who say it is an enemy) and that sense of competition revolves around the economic.

The top concern of Americans — cited by 78% — is the large amount of American debt held by China. About seven-in-ten (71%) say the loss of U.S. jobs to China is a very serious problem for the U.S. and 61% say the same about the trade deficit with China. Non-economic issues such as cyber attacks from China, its military power or human rights policies are cited by 50% or less of those surveyed.

There has been a shift in the public’s priorities when it comes to economic and trade policy toward China.  In March 2011, Americans saw building stronger relations with China as more important than getting tougher with it by a 53% to 40% margin; the public now says getting tougher is the priority by 49% to 42%.

Republicans are the strongest advocates of get-tough policies with 65% of them favoring that course over building stronger relations; independents are more divided with 47% putting the priority on getting tough and 44% on better relations, but that contrasts with 2011 when they thought building stronger relations with China was more important by a 55% to 30% margin. Democrats come down on the other side, with 53% putting priority on better relations and 39% on getting tough with trade policy. That same partisan divide plays out among supports of President Obama and Mitt Romney with 51% of Obama supporters putting the emphasis on better relations and 67% of Romney backers wanting tougher policies.

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney meet in their third and final presidential election debate October 22. The topic will be foreign policy. Sparks will fly: over the Obama administration’s handling of the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya; over what to do about the Iranian nuclear program and over China. Debating points will likely be scored and lost. But the impact on the ultimate outcome of the election is doubtful. American voters have been clear all year: few believe that international concerns are the most important problems facing the country in the run up to the November 6 election. And most favor focusing attention on domestic rather than foreign challenges.

Nevertheless, the American public has definite views on international issues. And there are some sharp differences between Republican and Democratic voters. So, while political pundits generally agree that there are no great substantive differences between the two candidates on most foreign policy matters, Obama and Romney may draw what distinctions they can in the debate to reap whatever electoral gain is available.

The Libya attack—which resulted in the deaths of four Americans—is sure to be a highly contentious topic, as it was briefly in the second debate on October 16. It promises to be a wrangle about who is to blame for the tragedy. The public is evenly divided on the issue, with 35% approving the administration’s performance and 38% disapproving. And sentiment is sharply divided along partisan lines: 60% of Democrats approve of the administration’s handling of the tragedy, 73% of Republicans disapprove. But just 56% of the public say they are following the Benghazi investigations closely, an indicator that it may not affect many voters’ decisions.

More broadly, an inward-looking public sees changes in North Africa and the Middle East through a distinctly American lens. A majority (54%) say it is more important to have stable governments in the region, even if they are less democratic, according to a new survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

Americans are also increasingly dubious that Arab Spring changes will lead to lasting improvements for people in the region. Only a quarter believe that changes in political leadership in the region will result in lasting improvements for people living in these countries, down from 42% who had such hopes in a March/April 2011 poll. More than half (57%) now think the Arab Spring will not lead to lasting improvements. And few (14%) think that the changes in political leadership in the region will be good for the United States, a view that is down ten percentage points from March/April 2011.

The public is less equivocal about Iran and its nuclear weapons program. Americans have long favored tough measures to prevent Tehran from amassing a nuclear arsenal. A majority (56%) say it is more important to take a firm stand against Iran’s nuclear program, while just 35% say it is more important to avoid a military conflict. In January, half favored taking a firm stand against Iran and 41% said it was more important to avoid a confrontation.

But this is a partisan issue in the United States. There are wide partisan and ideological differences in priorities for dealing with Iran. Fully 84% of conservative Republicans favor taking a firm stand against Iran’s nuclear program. Fewer than half as many liberal Democrats (38%) agree. There also is a sizable age gap in these opinions. Just 44% of those younger than 30 favor taking a strong stand against Iran; clear majorities in older age categories support a firm stance. Yet Americans are evenly divided—with 45% saying Obama and 44% picking Romney—over who would do better job as president in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program.

If Iran is the most immediate strategic challenge facing the next U.S. president, China is widely acknowledged to post the greatest long-term economic challenge. And the American public backs a tougher stance with Beijing. Nearly half (49%) say getting tougher with China on economic issues is more important than building a stronger economic relationship (42%). And support for toughness is up nine percentage points since March, 2011.

Independents and Republicans are much more supportive of getting tougher with China than they were a year and a half ago. Nearly half of independents (47%) now say it is more important to get tougher with China on economic issues, up from just 30% in March 2011. The percentage of Republicans favoring a tougher stance has increased by 11 points (from 54% to 65%) over this period. There has been less change in opinions among Democrats, and more continue to prioritize building stronger economic relations with China (53%) over getting tough with China (39%).

People think Romney is more likely to stand up to China. By 49% to 40% they say the former Massachusetts governor would do a better job dealing with China’s trade policies.

When Americans elect a president they are also effectively electing the leader of the world. So voters’ views on Libya, Iran, the Arab Spring and China will shape the conduct of international relations for years to come. This year’s presidential election may not turn on foreign policy, but the world certainly has a stake in the outcome.

Special to CNN

Tensions are mounting between China and its Asian neighbors, most recently over long-disputed territories in the South China and East China Seas. At the same time, the negative coverage that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton received in state-run Chinese media during her trip to Beijing last month underscored ongoing differences between China and the U.S. on a host of issues. But tensions like these are not just apparent at the diplomatic level or in government propaganda. Now, as China prepares for its once-in-a-decade leadership transition, the Chinese public is increasingly hostile toward rival nations, according to polling by the Pew Global Attitudes Project. This can only complicate Beijing’s relations with its neighbors and global rivals in the years ahead.

In particular, Chinese sentiment about the U.S. has cooled over the last few years. In 2010, 68 percent of Chinese characterized their country’s relationship with the U.S. as one of cooperation, while just 8 percent said it was one of hostility. Now, only 39 percent describe ties in terms of cooperation and 26 percent say they are hostile.

The Chinese were fairly pleased with President Barack Obama’s election, but since he took office his ratings in China have fallen dramatically. Of course, the People’s Republic is not alone in this regard – Obama’s approval has declined at least somewhat since he took office in most countries regularly surveyed by Pew. However, the drop off in China has been especially steep. In 2009, 62 percent of Chinese said they had a lot or some confidence in Obama to do the right thing in world affairs, while just 23 percent had little or no confidence. Today, the Chinese public is almost evenly split – 38 percent express confidence; 41 percent lack confidence.

Read the full commentary at CNN

Special to BBC News

Despite more than 90% of Chinese feeling that they enjoy a higher standard of living than their parents, concerns over corruption, social inequality and food safety are growing, according to a Pew Global Attitudes Survey.

Most presidents and prime ministers would love to have the kind of GDP growth China’s incoming leader Xi Jinping will inherit. The fact that forecasters now predict China’s growth may “slow” to below 8% next year will probably elicit little sympathy from Greece’s Antonis Samaras or Spain’s Mariano Rajoy.

But by recent Chinese standards growth figures like this are a disappointment. A slowdown is particularly troubling for Xi because, as China prepares for its once-in-a-decade leadership transition, a Pew Global Attitudes survey conducted there this year finds that its citizens are also increasingly worried about a variety of other domestic issues, especially corruption, inequality and consumer protection.

In many ways, these rising concerns all revolve around the idea of fairness. In the realm of politics, many see a system in which the politically well-connected regularly parlay their positions and networks into considerable wealth.

Read the full commentary at BBC News

Improving Standard of Living

About nine-in-ten (92%) Chinese say their standard of living is better than their parents’ at a comparable age, including 39% who say it is much better. The Chinese are more likely than any public among the 21 nations included in the 2012 Pew Global Attitudes survey to say they are better off than their parents.

When asked to compare their current finances to how they were doing just five years ago, 70% of Chinese say they and their families are better off now than they were then; 21% say they are doing about the same and just 5% say they are worse off. Of the 21 countries surveyed, only the Brazilians hold a similarly positive assessment of their economic progress.

Support for Free Market

Nearly three-quarters of the Chinese public (74%) agree that most people are better off in a free market economy, even though some people are rich and some are poor. About one-in-five (19%) disagree. Support for capitalism is widespread across age groups, education levels and income brackets.

Unlike many other countries surveyed by the Pew Global Attitudes Project in 2012, Chinese opinion about the free market has been relatively stable over the past decade, despite the global recession. Still, support has slipped somewhat since 2010, when 84% said most people are better off in a free market. (For more about the impact of the global downturn on support for the free market, see “Pervasive Gloom about the World Economy,” July 12, 2012.)

But Concerns about Economic Fairness, Corruption, Consumer Safety

Among the 17 items tested on the survey, rising prices is the only one rated a very big problem by a majority of Chinese. Roughly half hold this view about corrupt officials (50%) and the gap between the rich and the poor (48%). However, all of the other issues tested, with the exception of electricity shortages, are considered at least moderately big problems by a majority of Chinese.

There is far more concern about domestic issues today than there was in 2008, when the Pew Global Attitudes Project last asked this question in China. The change has been most dramatic with regard to food safety, which has received a lot of attention in China in recent years; 41% consider this to be a very big problem in their country, compared with 12% four years ago. Similarly, about three times as many people now say the safety of medicine is a major problem as said the same in 2008 (28% vs. 9%). And the percentage describing the quality of manufactured goods as a very serious problem has jumped 20 percentage points over the same time period.

Double-digit increases since 2008 are also evident in the percentage of the Chinese public that considers old age insurance, education, corrupt officials, corrupt business people, health care, and conditions for workers as very big problems for their country. Concern about traffic, crime, and the gap between the rich and the poor has also gone up, but to a lesser degree. In contrast, of the items tested, only rising prices are now considered to be a top problem by fewer people (60% today vs. 72% in 2008).

Unease about Economic Inequality

Despite broad support for capitalism, the public expresses concerns about growing inequality in their country. Most Chinese (81%) agree that today the rich just get richer while the poor get poorer, including 45% who completely agree. Only 12% disagree.

In addition, while a plurality (45%) believes that most people can succeed if they work hard, a significant minority (33%) says hard work does not guarantee success. Higher-income Chinese (62%) are more likely than those with lower incomes (44%) to believe hard work is rewarded.

The Chinese public also expresses support for government intervention to help the poor. When asked which is more important, roughly half (51%) choose an active role for the state in guaranteeing that no one is in need, rather than having individual freedom to pursue life’s goals without government interference (34%). Nonetheless, support for a social safety net is down 12 percentage points since 2011.

Views about hard work and success are linked to opinions about government and the economy. Those who say hard work is no guarantee of success express greater desire for the state to play an active role in the economy (+13); they also have less faith in the free market (-18 percentage points).

Approval of Modern Life, But Tradition Threatened

Nearly six-in-ten Chinese (59%) say they like the pace of modern life; just 31% disapprove. While the public is generally content with the 21st-century way of life, satisfaction is down 12 percentage points since 2008. People with higher incomes (73%) are especially likely to say they like the pace of modern life.

Nonetheless, a 57%-majority say their traditional way of life is getting lost, compared with 29% who say their traditions remain strong and 14% who are unsure. Fully 71% believe their way of life needs to be protected from foreign influence; just 21% disagree. A decade ago, fewer worried about lost traditions (68%) or the impact of foreign ideas (64%).

A plurality of Chinese are also concerned about the role of consumerism and commercialism in their country. Roughly four-in-ten (43%) say consumerism and commercialism are a threat to their culture. About a third (32%) takes the opposite view, and a quarter expresses no opinion.

As China prepares for its once-in-a-decade change of leadership, the Chinese people believe their country faces serious and growing challenges. In particular, the side effects of rapid economic growth, including the gap between rich and poor, rising prices, pollution, and the loss of traditional culture are major concerns, and there are also increasing worries about political corruption. While the Chinese have consistently rated their national and personal economic situations positively over the last few years, they are now grappling with the concerns of a modern, increasingly wealthy society.

The Chinese public also increasingly expresses reservations about relations with the United States. Over the last two years, ratings for the U.S. and President Obama have declined significantly, and the percentage of Chinese who characterize their country’s relationship with the U.S. as one of cooperation has plummeted from 68% to 39%. Still, many Chinese embrace aspects of America’s soft power, including U.S. science and technology and American ideas about democracy.

Inflation remains the top concern of the Chinese public – six-in-ten consider rising prices a very big problem. Meanwhile, half say corrupt officials are a major problem, up from 39% four years ago.

Worries about consumer protection have also increased significantly. After a number of high-profile food safety scandals in recent years, concerns about the safety of food have more than tripled since 2008.

And while China’s economy has grown at a much faster rate than most countries since the onset of the global economic downturn, concerns about economic inequality have also increased. About half now say the gap between rich and poor is a very big problem, and roughly eight-in-ten agree with the view that in China the “rich just get richer while the poor get poorer.”

Moreover, the rapid changes that have transformed their society in recent years have not been welcomed by all Chinese. Most still say they like the pace of modern life, but fewer hold this view today than four years ago. Nearly six-in-ten say their traditional way of life is getting lost and even more think their way of life should be protected against foreign influence.

These are among the key findings from a survey of China conducted by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 3,177 respondents between March 18 and April 15. The sample represents approximately 64% of the adult Chinese population.¹ This poll in China is part of the broader 21-nation spring 2012 Pew Global Attitudes survey.

Despite Success, Many See Problems

While the global financial crisis has taken a serious toll in many nations over the last few years, most Chinese report continued economic progress – indeed, 70% say they are better off financially than they were five years ago. Among the 21 nations polled, Brazil is the only country where the public reports a comparable level of economic advancement. Additionally, a remarkable 92% of Chinese say their standard of living is better than their parents’ at a similar age. (For more on international economic mobility and other economic issues, see “Pervasive Gloom About the World Economy,” released July 12, 2012).

Given this economic mobility and the overall success of economic reforms since the late 1970s, it is not too surprising that free markets are popular. Roughly three-in-four Chinese agree that most people are better off in a free market economy.

However, there is a general consensus in China that the economic gains of recent years have not benefited everyone equally: 81% agree with the statement the “rich just get richer while the poor get poorer,” and 45% completely agree. Roughly half (48%) say the gap between rich and poor is a very serious problem, up from 41% four years ago (fully 87% consider it at least a moderately big problem).

And some Chinese doubt whether simply working hard is enough to guarantee success in today’s China. While 45% agree with the statement “most people can succeed if they are willing to work hard,” one-in-three disagrees. Those who are doing better economically are much more likely to see a link between effort and success – 62% of higher-income Chinese believe most people can be successful if they work hard, compared with 45% of middle- and 44% of lower-income respondents.²

In another sign that many do not see a level playing field in Chinese society, there are growing worries about corruption. Half now say corrupt officials are a very big problem, up 11 percentage points since 2008; and 32% say this about corrupt business people, also up 11 points from four years ago.

Consumer protection is another rising concern. Four years ago, just 12% rated food safety a very big problem; today, it’s 41%. The percentage expressing very serious concerns about the safety of medicine has more than tripled, from 9% in 2008 to 28% today. And more now are very worried about the quality of manufactured goods (13% in 2008; 33% now).

Increasingly, people are also anxious about having a social safety net. Since 2008, the percentage of those rating old age insurance a very big problem has more than doubled (from 13% to 28%), while the percentage who say the same about health care has jumped from 12% to 26%. The environment is also a serious concern to many. A third or more rate air (36%) and water pollution (33%) as very big problems.

In addition, many Chinese are worried about the current state and direction of their culture and traditions. Most (57%) think their way of life is getting lost and 71% want to see their way of life protected from foreign influence. While 59% still say they like the pace of modern life, this is down from 71% four years ago. Wealthier Chinese are more likely to embrace modern life; 73% of those with higher incomes say they like it, compared with just 61% of middle and 54% of lower income Chinese.

Growing Wariness of the U.S.

Over the last two years, Chinese views about their country’s relationship with the U.S. have shifted substantially. In 2010, roughly two-in-three described the U.S.-China relationship as one of cooperation; today, just 39% view it this way. Meanwhile, 26% now say the relationship is one of hostility, up from 8% in the 2010 poll.

Similarly, while 58% had a positive view of the U.S. in 2010, only 43% do so today. President Obama’s ratings have also slipped – currently, 38% express confidence that he will do the right thing in world affairs, down from 52% two years ago.

Nonetheless, many Chinese – especially younger, wealthier, well-educated, and urban Chinese – continue to embrace certain elements of American soft power. In particular, many admire the U.S. for its scientific and technological achievements.

And in a country that remains a one-party state, American-style democracy has a strong appeal. Roughly half (52%) say they like American ideas about democracy; just 29% say they dislike these ideas. About seven-in-ten Chinese in the higher-income category have a positive opinion about American democratic ideals.

Just like opinions regarding the U.S.-China relationship, views about the India-China relationship have cooled over the last two years. In 2010, 53% described relations between the two Asian powers as one of cooperation, compared with 39% now.

Views on the Japan-China relationship are, on balance, negative. Just three-in-ten Chinese say their relationship with Japan is one of cooperation; fully 41% describe it in terms of hostility.

Views of China’s Economic Power

Globally, perceptions of Chinese economic power have been on the rise since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, and today many believe China is the world’s top economy. Across the 21 countries included in the spring 2012 Pew Global Attitudes survey, a median of 41% said China is the economic leader, while 37% named the U.S. (For more on international perceptions of China and the U.S., see “Global Opinion of Obama Slips, International Policies Faulted,” released June 13, 2012).

The Chinese, however, do not believe they have ascended to the top spot. About half (48%) say the U.S. is the world’s leading economy, while just 29% believe it is China. Americans, meanwhile, are divided: 41% think China is the top global economy, while 40% believe the U.S. remains the leader.

Globally, perceptions of Chinese power have increased in recent years, and in nine of the 21 nations surveyed, majorities or pluralities now believe that China is the world’s leading economic power. The Chinese, however, still tend to see the U.S. as the global economic powerhouse.

How China Views Major Powers

Chinese attitudes toward Russia are on balance positive, with 48% expressing a positive and 38% a negative view. In contrast, perceptions of the U.S. and the United Nations are roughly divided, with 43% holding a favorable opinion of each. And only about a third see the European Union (33%) and Pakistan (31%) positively. Chinese perceptions of these foreign nations and institutions have mostly held steady since last year.

The Chinese express even dimmer views toward their neighbor to the south, India. Roughly a quarter (23%) have a favorable opinion of India, while 62% offer a negative opinion.

Similarly, Iran receives largely negative ratings, with only 21% expressing a favorable view of the Islamic Republic, a decline of eight percentage points since 2011.

Fewer See Cooperation with U.S., India

While a 39%-plurality of Chinese see their country’s relationship with the U.S. as one of cooperation, this is down sharply from 2010, when nearly seven-in-ten (68%) held this view. Meanwhile, about a quarter (26%) say the relationship with the U.S. is one of hostility, up from 8% two years ago.

Similarly, 39% in China view their relationship with India as one of cooperation, down significantly since 2010, when 53% saw the relationship positively.

Views toward China’s longtime regional rival, Japan, are even dimmer, with a 41%-plurality saying that relations between China and Japan are hostile, and only three-in-ten describing them as cooperative.

China’s relationship with Pakistan is much brighter, with nearly half of Chinese (49%) seeing the relationship as one of cooperation and only 10% describing it as one of hostility.

China and India

There is further evidence that Sino-Indian relations have cooled in recent years – increasingly, the Chinese public is wary of India’s economic growth. Currently, only 44% of Chinese say that their southern neighbor’s expanding economy is positive for China, down from six-in-ten in 2010. Meanwhile, those saying India’s growing economy is a bad thing has almost doubled over the same period.

Indian views towards China are even more negative. Only 23% of Indians describe their country’s relationship with China as one of cooperation and only 24% think China’s growing economy is a good thing for India. (For more on Indian views toward China and other nations see “Deepening Economic Doubts in India,” released on September 10, 2012).

Views of the U.S. and American Soft Power

The Chinese have lukewarm feelings toward the United States, President Obama, and the state of the relationship between the two powers. Only around four-in ten (43%) have a favorable view of the U.S, 38% express confidence in Obama to do the right thing regarding world affairs and just 39% see the relationship between the countries as one of cooperation. These ratings are all down sharply since 2010. (For more on Chinese and global attitudes toward the U.S., see “Global Opinion of Obama Slips, International Policies Faulted,” released June 13, 2012).

While overall ratings for the U.S. are mixed in China, certain aspects of America’s image are positive. Among the measures of American soft power tested, people in China most admire U.S. science and technology. Nearly three-in-four (73%) say they admire U.S. technological and scientific advances. However, this is down seven percentage points since 2007, when eight-in-ten Chinese said the same.

About half (52%) also favor American ideas about democracy and 43% like U.S.-style business, although views of the American business model have deteriorated somewhat since 2007. And while a 43%-plurality say it is a good thing that American customs and ideas are spreading to China, the Chinese are evenly divided on whether they like American music, movies, and television.

Across these various measures of U.S. soft power, there is one constant: richer, younger, more educated, and urban Chinese all express a more positive view of these aspects of America’s image. And this also holds true for overall ratings of the U.S.

China’s Image in the World

Perceptions of China’s economic power continue to grow in much of the world, especially in Europe. However, nearly half of Chinese (48%) say the U.S. is the world’s leading economic power, while just 29% name their own country as the global leader. These results are similar to 2008, when the question was first asked. However, in 2009, following the successful 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics and the financial crisis in the West, the Chinese were evenly divided, with 41% choosing both the U.S. and China as the world’s economic leader. Since then, perceptions have drifted back to pre-economic crisis levels.

In terms of overall image, in nine of 20 countries surveyed in 2012, majorities or pluralities give China positive ratings. Opinions are largely negative in six nations, while views are essentially divided in five countries.

China receives positive ratings in most of the predominantly Muslim nations surveyed and is well-liked by roughly six-in-ten Russians. Indian views are on balance negative, although fully 45% do not offer an opinion. Meanwhile, since 2011, China’s ratings are down in the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan. (For more, see “Global Opinion of Obama Slips, International Policies Faulted,” released June 13, 2012).