By Bruce Stokes, Director of Pew Global Economic Attitudes, Pew Research Center

Special for YaleGlobal

In 1992, Bill Clinton won the US presidency largely on the strength of a simple campaign message: “It’s the economy, stupid!” Two decades later, in another election, the winning slogan might well be, “It’s the economy again, stupid!”

Public opinion surveys show that economic issues are a foremost concern for American voters. Recent history suggests that voters’ choice on November 6 will have implications not just for the economic health of the United States but also the global economy.

In the run-up to the 2012 election, the US economy is still struggling to recover from the Great Recession. The real gross domestic product grew an anemic 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2012; the unemployment rate was 8.3 percent in July.

Four in five Americans are unsatisfied with the way things are going in the country, according to a June Gallup survey. Most blame the economy. A July Pew Research Center poll found 33 percent of voters citing jobs as their top concern in deciding their vote, with an additional 19 percent mentioning the budget deficit.

Read the full commentary at YaleGlobal Online

By Bruce Stokes, Director of Pew Global Economic Attitudes, Pew Research Center

Special for YaleGlobal

In his 1926 short story “The Rich Boy,” American novelist F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote: “Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different from you and me.”

And so they are. Although, today’s very rich are not necessarily Americans or Europeans. They are quite often the citizens of emerging markets. Today Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia and Turkey are home to 320 billionaires, according to the 2012 Forbes magazine list of the world’s richest people – many more than the 203 billionaires who carry European passports and just trailing the 425 billionaires residing in the United States.

Tallying the number of super rich is only one way to measure the growing economic and political clout of the emerging markets. A far more telling and representative comparison of both relative and prospective influence and wellbeing involves simply asking people in emerging markets how they feel about their national economies and personal finances, their financial future and job prospects for their children.

As a recent Pew Research Center survey shows, the citizens of emerging markets are more optimistic than those from most developed countries in views about their future and that of their children. And this difference is likely to shape the world economy in the years ahead.

Read the full commentary at YaleGlobal Online

The economic mood is exceedingly glum all around the world. A median of just 27 percent think their national economy is doing well, according to a survey in 21 countries by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Only in China (83%), Germany (73%), Brazil (65%) and Turkey (57%) do most people report that current national economic conditions are good.

The public mood about the economy has worsened since 2008 in eight of 15 countries for which there is comparable data, while it is essentially unchanged in four others. The Chinese are the lone exception. They have been positive about their economy for the past decade.

Less than a third of Americans (31%) say the U.S. economy is doing well. That figure is up 13 percentage points from 2011. (But it is down 19 points from 2007, the year before the financial crunch began.) A median of just 16% of Europeans surveyed think their economy is performing up to par. That includes just 2% of the Greeks and 6% of the Spanish and Italians. Among Europeans, only the Germans (73%) give their economy a thumbs up. And just 7% of Japanese believe their economy is doing well.

People are, however, generally far more positive about their personal economic condition than they are about their nation’s economic situation. A median of 52 percent in the 21 nations surveyed feel satisfied with their own circumstances. Americans are twice as likely to say their family finances are in good shape as they are to say that the national economic situation is good. There are larger differences in Britain and Japan, where those who rate their personal economic situation as good exceed the number who have positive views of the national economy by more than four-to-one. Only the Chinese are significantly more likely to say the national economy is doing better than their families’ finances.

And there is some optimism that things will improve in the next 12 months, especially in Brazil (84%), China (83%) and Tunisia (75%). Nevertheless, pessimism about young peoples’ ability to do better than their parents is rampant, particularly in Europe (a median of only 9% think it will be easy) and Japan (10%). Again, the lone exception is China, where 57% say it will be easy for their children to become wealthier or to get a better job.

There is a striking contrast between the economic outlook in four of the emerging markets surveyed – Brazil, China, India and Turkey – and the European Union and the U.S. People living in these economies are generally more likely than Americans or Europeans to say that they are doing better than their parents. They are twice as likely as Americans and more than three times as likely as Europeans to think economic conditions in their countries are good. They are three times more likely than Europeans and more than twice as likely as Americans to say that they are financially better off compared with five years ago. And, while people in emerging markets also worry about the economic mobility of their children, they are four times more optimistic about the future for their kids than the Europeans and twice as optimistic as Americans.

In contrast, economic attitudes are particularly gloomy in the four nations polled in the Arab world. Only a third of those surveyed think they are better off than their parents at the same age. A median of only 30% say they are doing well financially. And a median of only 16% believe their children will have an easy time becoming economically better off than themselves.

Tough times have undermined the work ethic in a number of countries among people who are suffering economically. Those who say their personal finances are a mess are far less likely than those who are doing well to believe that most people succeed if they work hard.

The global economic crisis has eroded support for capitalism. In 11 of the 21 nations surveyed, half or fewer now agree with the statement that people are better off in a free market economy even though some people are rich and some are poor. And such backing is down in 9 of 16 nations with comparable data since 2007, before the Great Recession began. Such disenchantment is particularly acute in Italy (where support for a free market economy is down 23 percentage points), Spain (20 points) and Poland (15 points).

These are among the key findings from a new survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted in 21 countries among 26,210 respondents from March 17 to April 20, 2012.

In the wake of four years of economic turmoil around the world and political upheaval in a number of nations, very few people are satisfied with the way things are going in their country.

In the 21 countries surveyed, only in China (82%), Germany (53%) and Egypt (53%) do more than half of the population say they are content with their nation’s direction. And, among Egyptians, such sentiment is actually down 12 percentage points from 2011. People are particularly gloomy in Greece (2%), Spain (10%), Italy (11%) and Pakistan (12%). Even in the U.S. only 29% of the public thinks things overall are going well.

And the public mood is quite volatile in many societies. Satisfaction with their countries’ direction is up 14 points in Russia and 10 points in Germany from last year, but down 13 points in India and 9 points in Brazil. Looking further back, since 2007 positive views of the country’s direction have collapsed in Spain (down 41 points) and Pakistan (down 27). But it has improved 20 points in Germany, 15 points in Poland and 10 points in Russia. Notably, only in China have people been relatively positive through most of the last decade.

Publics Downbeat About Economy

The prolonged global economic slump has depressed the public mood about the economy. In only four of 21 countries surveyed does a majority say their economy is doing well. The assessment is particularly rosy in China (83%) and Germany (73%), but also in Brazil (65%) and Turkey (57%). And it is particularly bad in Greece (2%), Italy (6%), Spain (6%), Japan (7%) and Pakistan (9%).

The strongest improvement in public sentiment about the economy since 2011 has been in the U. S., where approval is up 13 points. But still less than a third (31%) of Americans think their economy is doing well.

The contrast in public opinion since 2007, immediately before the economic crisis hit, is striking, not only in its magnitude but also because it is a worldwide phenomenon. Confidence in the economy is down 59 percentage points in Spain, 54 points in Britain, 50 points in Pakistan, 26 in Egypt, 19 in the U.S. and 16 in Mexico in the last five years. Bucking this trend is Turkey, where those regarding the economy as good is up 11 points since the year before the crisis and Germany, up 10 points.

Looking back over the last decade, only in China among the countries consistently surveyed, has the public been upbeat about the economy for the entire period. The economic sentiment among Germans, Poles, Russians and Turks has been on a roller coaster ride.

Some Optimism about the Future

In only six of the 21 nations surveyed do half or more of the population think national economic conditions will improve over the next 12 months. This includes very optimistic Brazilians (84%), Chinese (83%) and Tunisians (75%) and relatively optimistic Americans (52%), Mexicans (51%) and Egyptians (50%). In addition, a plurality of Indians (45%) and Turks (44%) see a better economy on the horizon.

But in six countries majorities or pluralities think economic conditions will worsen, including 81% of Greeks and 60% of Czechs.

Blame the Government

Among those who think the economy is doing poorly, people in 16 of 21 countries fault their own government, some overwhelmingly so. Particularly angry at their leadership are the Pakistanis (95% blame the government as a primary or secondary culprit), Indians (92%), the Mexicans (91%), the Japanese (91%), the Czechs (91%) and the Poles (90%).

Young people in Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Tunisia, Mexico, Brazil and Japan tend to blame the government. And in Britain, France and the Czech Republic, women are more likely than men to blame the government for the economic crisis.

Banks and financial institutions were frequently – in Spain (78%), France (74%) and Germany (74%) – seen as the culprit behind the poor performance of national economies. And in two instances – France and Spain – significantly more of the public blamed the banks than blamed the government. There is also significant criticism directed at financial institutions in Jordan (53%) and Egypt (40%).

A quarter or more blame the U.S. in Egypt (32%), Pakistan (32%), Jordan (31%), Mexico (30%), Turkey (28%) and China (25%). Meanwhile, the Czechs (39%) and the French (37%) also criticize the European Union.

Notably, in seven countries people blame themselves second only to their governments for their current economic troubles. The most self-critical are the Tunisians (68%), the Indians (64%) and the Brazilians (58%).

People feel much better about the state of their personal economic situation than they do about national economic conditions. In 16 of 21 countries people are significantly more likely to say their economic condition is good than to say their country’s economy is doing well.

This is particularly true in Spain (51 percentage point difference), Britain (49 points) and France (46 points). Only in China are people far more upbeat about the national economy than they are about their own finances.

Among those who feel the most satisfied about their own economic well-being include the Brazilians (75%), the Germans (74%) and the Chinese (69%). If there was any doubt that a college education pays off: in 15 nations, people with a college degree were more satisfied with their economic situation than were those who did not have a college education.

Nevertheless, the global economic crisis has exacted a heavy toll on some people’s perception of their personal economic situation. In five of the 15 nations where there is comparable data, people’s sense of their own finances has deteriorated to a significant degree since 2008, especially in Pakistan (down 19 points), Poland (down 18 points) and Spain (down 11 points). The greatest improvements in awareness of individual economic wellbeing since 2008 have been in Turkey (up 20 points) and Germany (up seven points).

Few Better Off Than Five Years Ago

People may think their personal situation is better than economic conditions in their nation, but only in Brazil (72%) and China (70%) do large majorities think their families are better off than they were five years ago. On balance, Indians (50%) and Turks (43%) also say their situations have improved.

However, majorities or pluralities in 9 nations say their family financial situation has deteriorated. Solid majorities hold this view in Greece (81%), Spain (60%) and Pakistan (57%), as do at least four-in-ten in Lebanon, Italy, France, Britain, the Czech Republic, Japan, Egypt and Poland.

Grim Prospects for the Kids

Faith in upward economic mobility is abysmal all over the world. Only in China (57%) does a majority believe that it will be easy for young people today to become wealthier or to get a better job than their parents. The Europeans are the most pessimistic about their children’s chances of climbing the economic ladder.

Eight-in-ten or more in Britain, Japan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Egypt, the U.S., Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic say it is difficult for young people to become as economically successful as their parents.

Such pessimism is particularly strong in Greece, where 73% say it will be very difficult for today’s kids to advance economically, Spain (69% very difficult) and Pakistan (65% very difficult).

Doing Better than the Last Generation

Despite their gloom about their current economic situation and their pessimism about their children’s prospects, people generally believe that they are better off than their parents. Majorities in 14 of the 21 countries and pluralities in three more think they are doing better than the previous generation.

Those most pleased with how far they have come economically are the Chinese (92%) and the Brazilians (81%). Even 71% of the Spanish, whose economic mood is among the worst in the world, whose economic confidence has fallen more than any other country in the wake of the global downturn and who are among the most pessimistic about prospects for the next generation, still recognize they have come a long way.

But young people ages 18-to-29 in Britain, France, Spain, Russia, Italy and Greece are much less likely than those 50 and older to think they have a better standard of living than their parents. Nevertheless, in Mexico and Tunisia, those under 30 are more likely to think they have a better standard of living than their parents.

The public’s retrospective perception of the economy is generally in line with economic experience. Seven-in-ten Chinese (70%) say they are better off than they were five years ago. And China experienced the fastest growth over the last half decade (averaging 10.5% annually from 2007 to 2011) among the 21 countries surveyed by the Pew Research Center. Similarly, 50% of Indians say they are better off and India averaged 8.1% growth over that period. More than seven-in-ten (72%) Brazilians say economic times are better now and Brazil averaged 4.2% growth over the last five years.

There is a strong correlation between recent economic experience and people’s perception of their current national economic situation. Nearly three-quarters of Germans (73%) are satisfied with how the Germany economy is doing, reflecting an International Monetary Fund report of 3.1% growth last year. Conversely, only 6% of the Spanish give a good grade to their economy, which grew by only 0.7% in 2011.

There is a similar pattern with expectations about the economy over the next 12 months. More than eight-in-ten Chinese (83%) think their economy is going to improve over the next year. And the International Monetary Fund agrees, projecting a robust 8.2% growth.

Emerging economies such as Brazil, China, India and Turkey are upbeat about their personal and national economic situation. They generally feel they are better off than they were five years ago and that they are doing better than their parents. Nevertheless, they are divided over whether the economy is going to improve in the near future and in three of four countries most are pessimistic about their kids’ future.

The Chinese, in particular, are quite positive about their economic situation, with 92% saying they are better off than the previous generation, 83% are satisfied with current national economic conditions, 70% feel they are financially more prosperous than they were five years ago and 69% are happy with their own personal economic circumstances. But the Brazilians are even more upbeat when it comes to their personal finances (75%), and 72% say they are better off financially than five years ago. In contrast, the Turks and Indians, while positive, are generally less optimistic across a range of indicators than are their emerging market counterparts.

Thinking about the future, while strong majorities of Brazilians (84%) and Chinese (83%) think the economy will improve over the next 12 months, only a plurality of Indians (45%) and Turks (44%) agree. Regarding their children’s future, only in China (57%) does a majority think the next generation will have an easy time exceeding the well-being of their parents. And the median for Brazil, China, India and Turkey is a more pessimistic 35%. Nevertheless, taken together the four emerging market countries are much more optimistic than Americans (only 14% think their kids will have an easy time climbing the economic ladder) or Europeans (a median of 9%).

Brazilians (69%) and Indians (67%) are among the strongest believers that hard work leads to success. But the Turks (50%) and the Chinese (45%) are more skeptical.

Brazilians (75%), Chinese (74%) and Indians (61%) are among those with the greatest faith in capitalism. Turks (55%) are slightly less committed to the free market.

As might be expected, people in emerging markets who have higher incomes are generally more positive in their economic outlook, with some notable exceptions. Upper-income Brazilians and Indians are much more likely to say that their economy is doing well than are their low income compatriots. But there is no effective difference in assessment of the economy between low-income and high-income Chinese or Turks. And, given the recent relative success of their economies, it may not be surprising that Indians and Turks who are well off are particularly supportive of the current free market system.

The difference in economic attitudes between people with high incomes and people with low incomes is most notable in India, where the rich are markedly more satisfied than the poor as measured by a range of indicators. By a margin of 25 percentage points, high-income Indians are more satisfied than low-income Indians with their personal economic situation. The rich in India are more likely, by 13 points, to say they are better off than they were five years ago. By 10 points they are more likely than the less well off to subscribe to the belief that hard work leads to success. And by nine points, they are more likely to say that their children can do even better financially than their parents.

Among the 21 countries surveyed, Mexico and Russia are also often considered emerging economies by financial analysts. But, in terms of the economic attitudes of their populations, Mexico and Russia have little in common with Brazil, China, India and Turkey. Just over half of Mexicans and Russians think they are better off than their parents, compared with a median of nearly three-in-four Brazilians, Chinese, Indians and Turks. Similarly, about half of the Mexicans and Russians say their personal economic situation is good, compared with a median of two-in-three Brazilians, Chinese, Indians and Turks. And only about a third of Mexicans and Russians believe their country’s economy is doing well and that they are better off financially compared with five years ago. A median of about three-fifths in Brazil, China, India and Turkey think they are doing better and say their nation’s economy is doing well.

The Arab World is Downbeat

The general economic mood is particularly grim in the Arab nations surveyed, except in Tunisia.

Strong majorities in Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt say their standard of living has either not improved or gotten worse over the last generation. In contrast, 57% of all Tunisians think their lives are better than that of their parents.

Majorities in Egypt (76%), Lebanon (73%) and Jordan (64%) also think their personal economic situation is bad. But only 43% of Tunisians agree.

Differences in economic attitudes in Lebanon between religious groups are particularly notable. Sunni and Shia Muslims are more likely than Christians to say that their personal economic conditions are bad. Sunni are much more likely than Shia or Christians to claim that they are worse off than their parents.

In all four Arab countries surveyed people without a college education are far more likely than those with a college education to say that their own financial circumstances are bad. Notably, only in Tunisia is there a generation gap with regard to personal financial circumstances. Younger Tunisians and Lebanese, those 18-t0-29 years of age, are significantly more upbeat about their own economic situation than are people 50 years of age and older. And people in all the Arab countries surveyed overwhelmingly believe that it will be difficult for their children to get a better job or to become wealthier than their parents.

The Lebanese in particular doubt the value of hard work. Nearly two-thirds (64%) say it is no guarantee of economic success. The Jordanians question capitalism: more than half (54%) say people are not better off in a market economy.

More than a year after the first stirrings of the Arab Spring, there continues to be a strong desire for democracy in Arab and other predominantly Muslim nations. Solid majorities in Lebanon, Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and Jordan believe democracy is the best form of government, as do a plurality of Pakistanis.

Indeed, these publics do not just support the general notion of democracy – they also embrace specific features of a democratic system, such as competitive elections and free speech.

A substantial number in key Muslim countries want a large role for Islam in political life. However, there are significant differences over the degree to which the legal system should be based on Islam.

The United States is not seen as promoting democracy in the Middle East. In newly democratic Tunisia, only about three-in-ten believe the American response to the political upheaval in their country has had a positive impact.

Despite the tumult and uncertainty of the last year, views about democracy are mostly unchanged since 2011, although support has declined somewhat in Jordan. Enthusiasm for democracy tends to be generally less intense in Jordan and in Pakistan. It is consistently strong in Lebanon and Turkey.

While democratic rights and institutions are popular, they are clearly not the only priorities in the six Muslim majority nations surveyed. In particular, the economy is a top concern. And if they had to choose, most Jordanians, Tunisians and Pakistanis would rather have a strong economy than a good democracy. Turks and Lebanese, on the other hand, would prefer democracy. Egyptians are divided.

There is also a strong desire for Islam to play a major role in the public life of these nations, and most want Islam to have at least some influence on their country’s laws. Majorities in Pakistan, Jordan and Egypt believe laws should strictly follow the teachings of the Quran, while most Tunisians and a 44%-plurality of Turks want laws to be influenced by the values and principles of Islam, but not strictly follow the Quran.

About four-in-ten Lebanese say laws should not be influenced at all by the teachings of the Quran, although on this issue – as on many issues – views vary sharply along religious and sectarian lines. While 63% of Lebanese Christians and 38% of Sunni Muslims say laws should not be guided by the Quran, just 13% of Shia Muslims agree.

Just as opinions about religion and politics vary across these six nations, so do views about gender equality. Majorities in all six believe women should have equal rights as men, and more than eight-in-ten hold this view in Lebanon and Turkey. However, in Egypt – where the role of women in society has been a heavily debated issue throughout the post-Mubarak transition period – a slimmer 58%-majority favors equal rights, while 36% oppose the idea. Only 53% of Egyptian men endorse equal rights.

Moreover, while many support the general principle of gender equality, there is less enthusiasm for gender parity in politics, economics, and family life. For instance, many believe men make better political leaders, that men should have more of a right to a job than women when jobs are scarce, and that families should help choose a woman’s husband.

These are among the key findings from a survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted in six predominantly Muslim nations March 19 to April 20.¹ The poll, which is part of the broader 21-nation spring 2012 Global Attitudes survey, found considerable optimism – at least among Arab publics – about the prospects for democracy in the region. Solid majorities in Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan and Lebanon said the 2011 popular uprising would lead to more democracy in the Middle East. Turks and Pakistanis, on the other hand, were less hopeful.

This report includes a special section on Tunisian public opinion (see Part II). In the nation where the Arab Spring began, large majorities say they are dissatisfied with the country’s direction and its economic situation. While Tunisians embrace their country’s nascent democracy, they are divided over whether things in their country have actually gotten better since long-running dictator President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali was forced from office. Still, most are hopeful about Tunisia’s future and optimistic that the economy will improve in the next 12 months. And despite the dissatisfaction with current conditions, the ruling Islamist party Ennahda receives positive marks from 65% of Tunisians.

Both Democracy and Economy Are Priorities

Majorities in five of the six nations polled (and a plurality of Pakistanis) believe democracy is the best form of government. Moreover, there is a strong desire in these nations for specific democratic rights and institutions, such as competitive multi-party elections and freedom of speech.

Other goals are also clearly important. Many say political stability is a crucial priority, and even more prioritize economic prosperity. When respondents are asked which is more important, a good democracy or a strong economy, Turkey and Lebanon are the only countries where more than half choose democracy. Egyptians are divided, while most Tunisians, Pakistanis and Jordanians prioritize the economy.

Overall, views about the economic situation in these countries are grim, although Turkey is a notable exception. Nearly six-in-ten Turks (57%) say their country’s economy is in good shape, but at least seven-in-ten in Pakistan, Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan offer negative assessments.

A Major Role for Islam in Public Life

In five of six nations, solid majorities say Islam is already playing a large role in the country’s political life. In newly democratic Tunisia, where the Islamist party Ennahda won the largest share of votes in the recent parliamentary elections, fully 84% think Islam has a major role.

Similarly, in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood has won both parliamentary and presidential elections, 66% hold this view, up from 47% two years ago.

The view that Islam plays a large role in political life has also become more prevalent in Pakistan over the last two years. Meanwhile, more than six-in-ten in Turkey and Lebanon believe Islam is a major part of political life in their countries. This view is especially pervasive among Lebanese Christians – 75% think Islam has a major role.

The clear exception on this issue is Jordan. Only 31% of Jordanians believe Islam currently plays a large part in their nation’s political life, while 63% say it has a small role. Among the majority of Jordanians who say Islam is playing a small role, 80% say it is a bad thing that Islam has only a minor part in the country’s politics.

Support for Gender Equality – but Not in All Circumstances

While majorities in all six countries support the principle of gender equality, there are significant differences between men and women on this issue. The most striking gender gap is in Jordan, where 82% of women but just 44% of men say women should have the same rights as men.

Moreover, while there is majority support for the idea of gender equality, this does not necessarily apply to specific aspects of public and private life. For instance, at least half in Tunisia, Pakistan, Turkey and Jordan say men make better political leaders. When it comes to economics, most say women should be able to work outside the home, but most also believe that when jobs are scarce, jobs for men should be the first priority. And in the personal realm, many of those surveyed believe a woman’s family should help choose her husband, rather than the woman herself – indeed, in Pakistan and Jordan this is the majority view.

Limited Support for Extremist Groups

Extremist groups are largely rejected in predominantly Muslim nations, although significant numbers do express support for radical groups in several countries. For instance, while there is no country in which a majority holds a favorable opinion of the Palestinian organization Hamas, it receives considerable support in Tunisia, Jordan and Egypt.

The militant Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah receives its highest overall ratings in Tunisia, where nearly half express a positive opinion. Sizable minorities in both Jordan and Egypt also have a favorable view, but Hezbollah’s image has been declining in both countries in recent years. In its home country, views about Hezbollah are sharply divided along sectarian lines: 94% of Shia, 33% of Christians, and 5% of Sunnis give the group favorable marks.

Across all six nations, less than 20% have a positive opinion about al Qaeda or the Taliban. In Turkey and Lebanon, support for these groups is in the single digits. However, fully 19% of Egyptians rate these extremist organizations favorably.

Turkey and Erdogan Popular

Turkey, which has significantly increased its diplomatic profile in recent years, particularly in the Middle East, is held in high regard in the predominantly Muslim nations surveyed. Solid majorities in all six nations express a favorable opinion of Turkey. Moreover, its leader, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the moderate Islamist party AKP, also receives largely positive reviews.

Most of those surveyed believe Turkey favors democracy in the Middle East, including roughly three-in-four in the newly democratic nations of Egypt and Tunisia. Fewer say this about Saudi Arabia, although more than half in Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan think the oil-rich kingdom does support democracy in the region.

Yet, relatively few believe the United States wants democracy in the Middle East, including just 37% in Egypt, a major recipient of American democracy promotion funds in recent years. Exceedingly few think Israel favors democracy in the Middle East – just 10% or less in all six nations hold this view.

Tunisians Unhappy With State of Country, but Still Hopeful

Nearly eight-in-ten Tunisians (78%) are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country and a similar number (83%) describe current economic conditions as bad. And the country is split over whether it is better off now that Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali is no long in power.

However, Tunisians show few signs of wanting a return to autocracy. A majority says a democratic government is preferable, even if that means some risk of instability, and large majorities deem rights and institutions such as a fair judiciary, honest elections, and free speech very important.

And while they are glum about current conditions, they are hopeful about the future. Two-thirds (66%) are optimistic about Tunisia’s future, and 75% think the country’s economy will improve in the next 12 months.

The ruling Ennahda party gets largely positive reviews – 65% have a favorable opinion of the Islamist organization, which was banned from politics during the Ben Ali era. Two Ennahda leaders, party co-founder Rached Ghannouchi and current Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali, are viewed favorably by about two-in-three Tunisians.

The U.S. receives mixed reviews in Tunisia. Overall, 45% have a favorable and 45% an unfavorable view of the U.S. However, President Barack Obama gets mostly poor marks – 57% say they have little or no confidence that Obama will do the right thing in world affairs. And there is no consensus among Tunisians about how the U.S. has handled the political changes taking place in their country – 31% believe the American response has had a positive effect, 27% say it has been negative, and 25% volunteer that the U.S. has had no impact.

Also of Note

• While few in Tunisia and Egypt describe the current economy as good, there is optimism about the future – 75% of Tunisians and 50% of Egyptians believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months.
• On balance, opinions about Iran are negative, although Pakistan is a clear exception – 76% of Pakistanis have a favorable view of Iran, and 47% rate President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad positively.
• Syrian President Bashar al-Assad generally receives very negative ratings across the nations included in the survey (For more on views about Syria and President Bashar al-Assad, see “Widespread Condemnation for Assad in Neighboring Countries,” released June 21, 2012).

Nonetheless, most Tunisians are also optimistic about their country’s future and the economy. They prioritize having a democratic government rather than a stable, non-democratic one. And they say it is very important to establish key features of democracy – such as a fair judiciary, honest elections and free speech.

Regarding the role of religion in government, Tunisians are more likely to look towards Turkey as a role model, rather than Saudi Arabia.

Dismal Conditions, but Optimistic About Future

A broad majority (78%) of Tunisians are dissatisfied with the direction of their country. Just two-in-ten are satisfied. Similarly, roughly eight-in-ten (83%) say current economic conditions are bad, while only 17% think the economy is
doing well.

Despite deep concern about the state of the nation, there is widespread optimism. Almost two-thirds (66%) are hopeful about the future of the country, while just 27% are pessimistic. In addition, three-quarters believe the economy will get better over the next twelve months, while 12% say it will stay about the same and 12% expect conditions to worsen.

Supporters of the ruling Ennahda party are particularly optimistic about the nation’s future (76%) and the economy (82%).

Mixed Reviews of Post-Ben Ali Era

Tunisians are almost evenly divided on whether their country is better off now that Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali is no longer in power. Almost half (45%) say things are better, but a similar percentage (42%) believes the country is worse off.

Ennahda supporters are more likely to believe things are better off (56%) with Ben Ali out of office.

Young people, however, are more likely to say things are worse off now – 50% of 18-to-29 year-olds hold this view versus 35% of those age 50 and older.

Democracy Is a Priority, but So Is Economy

Despite gloomy reviews of national conditions after Ben Ali’s ouster, there is significant support for democracy among Tunisians. A majority (55%) prefers to have a democratic government even if there is some risk of political instability. Only about four-in-ten (38%) say they would rather have a stable government even if there is a risk it will not be fully democratic.

In addition, respondents name key democratic principles as top priorities for Tunisia’s future. Roughly eight-in-ten say it is very important for the country that the judicial system treats everyone the same (79%) and that there are honest elections with a choice of at least two political parties (77%).

Majorities also cite the freedom to openly criticize the government (64%) and having a media that can report news without government censorship (57%) as top priorities. Another key concern for the future is that women have the same rights as men (59%).

While democratic principles are high priorities, so are the economy and security. Improving the economy ranks as the most important priority (92%). And nearly eight-in-ten (79%) say that it is very important to maintain law and order.

Much lower priorities are: ensuring that religious parties can be part of the government (48%) and being able to access the internet without government censorship (45%).

There are few demographic differences in priorities for the country. However, women (67%) are more likely than men (50%) to say equal rights for women is very important.

Turkey Is Model for Religion in Politics

When asked which is a better model for the role of religion in Tunisia’s government – Turkey or Saudi Arabia – a majority names the more secular Turkey as the ideal, while just 18% choose Saudi Arabia. Another 15% volunteer that neither model is appropriate.

Young people and the highly educated are especially likely to name Turkey as the preferred model. Two-thirds of 18-to-29 year-olds choose Turkey, compared with 53% of those age 50 and older. Nearly seven-in-ten college graduates (69%) say the same, but just half (51%) of those with a primary education or less do so.

The Future for Women

Few Tunisians are concerned about the impact of the Ennahda-led government on women’s rights. Roughly half (48%) believe women will have the same number of rights under the Islamist ruling party as they have had in the past, while another 17% say women will have more rights. Around three-in-ten (29%) believe women will have fewer rights under the new government.

Young people are especially likely to believe the Ennahda-led government will give women fewer rights. More than a third (36%) of 18-to-29 year-olds say women will lose rights, while just 22% of those age 50 and older believe the same. There is no significant difference between men and women on this question.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia are seen as supporting the spread of democracy in the region, while the U.S. and Israel are widely viewed as opposing it.

Majorities in all six predominantly Muslim nations have a favorable view of Turkey and most are also positive toward Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Saudi King Abdullah and his nation also receive high marks in many countries, though Turks and Tunisians are much less positive toward the monarchy. There is widespread disapproval of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Gloomy Economic Conditions

Less than a third in Pakistan, Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan say their current economic situation is good. Turkey is the only country where a majority thinks the economy is doing well.

In Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan, economic assessments today are more negative than they were in 2007, before the global economic crisis. For example, in Pakistan, 59% said the economy was doing well in 2007, compared with just 9% now. The Lebanese, meanwhile, have consistently said their economy is doing poorly over the past five years.

Turkey is the only predominantly Muslim country surveyed in both 2007 and 2012 where reviews of the economy have recovered from the economic crisis. Positive ratings today are 36 percentage points higher than the low of 21% in 2008.

The economic outlook over the next 12 months is more mixed. Pluralities or majorities in Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey believe the economy will improve. However, less than a third of Jordanians, Pakistanis and Lebanese say the same.

Respondents’ views about their country’s overall future are also divided, and appear to be related to expectations about the domestic economy. In the countries that are optimistic about their economic future – Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey – more than half are hopeful about the nation in general. In Pakistan, Jordan and Lebanon – where expectations about the economy are low – pluralities or majorities are pessimistic about the country’s future.

Optimism About Democracy

Solid majorities in the Arab nations surveyed believe the 2011 popular uprisings will lead to more democracy in the Middle East, including nearly three-quarters in Egypt and seven-in-ten in Tunisia. Roughly two-thirds in Jordan and Lebanon agree.

Attitudes are more divided in Turkey and Pakistan. In Turkey, about a third (34%) believes the Arab Spring will result in the spread of democracy in the region, while a similar percentage (37%) is doubtful and 29% express no opinion. In Pakistan, almost equal percentages say there will (21%) and will not (20%) be more democracy, though most say they do not know (59%).

Most See Turkey as Supportive of Democracy

Respondents generally see Turkey and Saudi Arabia, but not the U.S. or Israel, as proponents of democracy in the Middle East. Roughly six-in-ten or more in Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan and Turkey believe the Turkish government is supportive of democracy in the region. Pakistani opinion is also, on balance, positive.

Roughly two-thirds in Egypt and Jordan say the Saudi Arabian government favors democracy in the Middle East. About half (52%) of Pakistanis also hold this view. However, fewer than a third of Tunisians (31%) and Turks (18%) agree.

Opinion is decidedly more negative about the U.S. and Israel. Majorities or pluralities in Jordan, Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt believe the American government opposes democracy in the region. Broad majorities across nearly all the countries surveyed say the same about the Israeli government. Attitudes in Pakistan are, on balance, negative about both the U.S. and Israel, though many express no opinion (41% and 55%, respectively).

In Lebanon, opinions as to whether Turkey, Saudi Arabia or the U.S. favors democracy in the Middle East vary considerably by religious affiliation. More than eight-in-ten Shia Muslims in Lebanon believe each of these governments oppose democracy. Majorities of Sunni Muslims and Christians, meanwhile, see Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. in a positive light. When it comes to Israel, however, at least seven-in-ten across all three religious groups believe the Israeli government opposes the spread of democracy in the Middle East.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia Viewed Favorably

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi King Abdullah, and their nations, are more popular than either Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Seven-in-ten across the countries surveyed are favorable toward Turkey and about two-thirds (65%) have a positive view of its prime minister. The one exception is Pakistan, where the public is, on balance, positive toward Erdogan – 31% favorable and 11% unfavorable – but most (58%) are unfamiliar with him.

While in office, Erdogan has made a concerted effort to reach out to his regional neighbors and it appears his efforts are paying off. Since 2002, favorable ratings of Turkey have increased by 39 percentage points in Jordan and 29 points in Lebanon. Since 2011, ratings have also increased in Pakistan (+14) and Egypt (+6).

Opinion of Saudi Arabia is somewhat more mixed, though many are favorable. Egyptians, Jordanians and Pakistanis are overwhelmingly positive toward the country, and majorities in these countries also give Abdullah warm reviews.

Turkey and Tunisia, however, are decidedly negative toward Saudi Arabia and its ruler, with four-in-ten or fewer giving either the nation or the leader favorable ratings. The Lebanese are split: majorities of Sunnis (70%) – who constitute the dominant branch of Islam in Saudi Arabia – have a positive view of that country while 95% of Shia are unfavorable. Nearly two-thirds of Christians (64%) are positive.

Iran is much less popular across the six countries. Roughly four-in-ten or fewer in Tunisia, Lebanon, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan give Iran and its leader, Ahmadinejad, favorable reviews. Only in Pakistan is a majority favorable toward Iran, and almost half of Pakistanis are also positive toward Ahmadinejad.

Although attitudes about Iran are generally negative in Lebanon, large differences emerge between religious groups. Lebanese Shia Muslims (91%) are overwhelmingly favorable while Sunnis (95% negative) and Christians (68% negative) are unfavorable. Shia account for the overwhelming majority of Iran’s Muslims.

The Arab League, which played a major role in responding to the violence in Libya, receives mixed reviews. Majorities in Jordan, Egypt and Pakistan are favorable toward the organization. The Lebanese, Tunisians and Turks, however, are generally unfavorable.

Most give Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has led a brutal crackdown on protestors in his country, negative ratings. More than seven-in-ten in Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey hold unfavorable views.

In Lebanon, a majority is negative toward Assad, though a substantial minority is positive. Support for Assad is nearly universal (96%) among Shia Muslims in Lebanon, while just 8% of Sunnis and 34% of Christians are favorable.

In Pakistan, attitudes are, on balance, positive, though most are unfamiliar with him (64%). (For more on views about Syria and President Bashar al-Assad, see “Widespread Condemnation for Assad in Neighboring Countries,” released June 21, 2012).