Divisions Over Austerity

Debate over cuts in government spending have been the focal point of European politics in recent months. European citizens are divided on the efficacy of austerity. Among the nations surveyed, a median of 37% say cuts have not gone far enough, 37% say they have gone too far and 25% say they have been about right.

Roughly half in Poland (52%) and France (46%) say their country’s efforts to reduce government spending have not cut deep enough. A plurality in Spain (43%) and the Czech Republic (45%) say belt-tightening has been excessive. And Italians are divided on their government’s efforts.

These findings reflect conditions on the ground in each of these nations. In France, nominal government expenditures have increased throughout the crisis, so there have been no cutbacks in public spending. The plurality of the left in France that thinks austerity has gone too far may reflect anxiety about anticipated cuts and could help explain their support for the new French president, Francois Hollande, who has promised some increases in spending. In Spain, concern that austerity has gone too far tracks with the fact that government expenditures have gone down both in real terms and as a per cent of GDP every year since 2009.

The view that spending cuts have gone too far is especially common on the left in the Czech Republic, Britain, Spain and France – all nations ruled by center-right governments at the time of the survey. But there is no real ideological divide on budget cutting in Italy, Germany and Poland.

Public support for further austerity is questionable, however. Majorities in five of the seven countries surveyed say efforts to reduce government spending are about right or have gone too far. This includes strong majorities in Spain (73%) and Britain (71%) and a lesser majority in Italy (57%).

Mixed Views on Bailouts

Assistance to EU countries that have major financial problems has been a key element of Europe’s response to the euro crisis. Bailouts have been provided to Greece, Ireland and Portugal. But such aid is not popular in countries that have been donors.

A strong majority of the British (62%) are against EU assistance to troubled member countries. A majority of the French (56%) also oppose it, while the Germans are divided (48% oppose, 49% support). A majority or plurality of the left in all three northern countries support such assistance. But only a minority of the right and the center back aid.

Public attitudes toward bailouts are in flux. Opinion has flip flopped in France. In 2010, 53% supported assisting others in distress. In 2012 a majority (56%) oppose such aid.

Over the same time period, German support for such assistance actually rose from 42% in 2010 to 49% today. This may reflect the fact that Germans are feeling much better about their own economy. And those who feel good about the German economy are much more likely to be willing to provide financial assistance to other European Union countries in distress than are Germans who think their economy is doing poorly.

As might be expected, people in southern European countries that are recipients or potential beneficiaries of aid – Greece (91%), Spain (90%), and Italy (79%) – overwhelmingly favor other European Union governments providing financial assistance to EU member countries that experience major financial problems.

It is notable, however, that eastern Europeans, who are currently not considered candidates for bailouts – Poland (63%) and the Czech Republic (55%) – also back such aid. These nations were the beneficiaries of considerable assistance when they first joined the EU.

Concern Over Loss of National Budgetary Sovereignty

Clear majorities in four of the eight EU nations surveyed oppose giving the European Union more authority over the national budgets of member countries. Such budgetary deferral to Brussels is a key element in the European Union Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union – known as the Fiscal Pact – that comes into force January 1, 2013. Opposition to the loss of sovereignty over the domestic budget is found in Germany (56%) and Spain (54%) and is overwhelming in Britain (75%) and the Czech Republic (73%), where the governments have refused to sign the Fiscal Pact. (Their participation is not needed for the treaty to come into force.) Opinions are roughly divided in France (51% oppose, 49% favor) and Italy (40% oppose, 45% favor).

There is no clear-cut, European-wide ideological split over budgetary sovereignty. It is the right in Britain (81%) who most strongly oppose EU oversight of the national budget. But it is the left who oppose such supervision in Spain.

In Europe, what started out four years ago as a sovereign debt crisis, morphed into a euro currency crisis and led to the fall of several European governments, has now triggered a full-blown crisis of public confidence: in the economy, in the future, in the benefits of European economic integration, in membership in the European Union, in the euro and in the free market system. The public is very worried about joblessness, inflation and public debt, and those fears are fueling much of this uncertainty and negativity.

Europeans largely oppose further fiscal austerity to deal with the crisis. They are divided on bailing out indebted nations. They oppose Brussels’ impending oversight of national budgets. At the same time, Europeans who now use the euro have no desire to abandon it and return to their former currency. And anti-German sentiment is largely contained to Greece, at least for the moment.

The crisis has exposed sharp differences between some Europeans. Germany is the most admired nation in the EU and its leader the most respected. The Germans are judged to be Europe’s most hardworking people. And the Germans are the strongest supporters of both European economic integration and the European Union.

Greece is the polar opposite. None of its fellow EU members surveyed see it in a positive light. In turn, Greeks are among the most disparaging of European economic integration and the harshest critics of the European Union. And they see themselves as Europe’s most hardworking people.

These are among the key findings from a new survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted in eight EU nations and the United States among 9,108 respondents from March 17 to April 16.

European Unity in Trouble

The European project, which began with the creation of a small Common Market in 1957, grew to a larger Single Market in 1992 and then created a single currency in 2002, is a major casualty of the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis.

Across the eight European Union member countries surveyed, a median of only 34% think that European economic integration has strengthened their country’s economy. Indeed, majorities or near majorities in most nations now believe that the economic integration of Europe has actually weakened their economies. This is the opinion in Greece (70%), France (63%), Britain (61%), Italy (61%), the Czech Republic (59%) and Spain (50%). Only in Germany (59%) do most people say that their country has been well served by European integration.

Among the five euro area nations surveyed, a median of only 37% believes having the euro as their currency has been a good thing. This includes just 30% of the Italians and 31% of the French. At the same time, the three non-euro zone countries surveyed are quite happy they have kept their own currencies, including nearly three-quarters of the British (73%).

A median of about four-in-ten Europeans (39%) surveyed think favorably of the European Central Bank, the institution at the center of the debate over how to deal with the euro crisis. That includes just 15% of the Greeks, 25% of the Spanish and only 40% of the Germans.

Moreover, as public criticism of European unity grows, faith in its benefits and institutions erodes. Since 2009, belief that European economic integration, the raison d’être of the European Union, has weakened their national economy has grown by 22 percentage points in the Czech Republic, 20 points in Italy, and 18 points in Spain. And, since 2007, the favorability of the European Union as an organization has fallen 20 points in Spain and the Czech Republic, 19 points in Italy and 14 points in Poland.

Among the Europeans surveyed, only in Germany is there a growing majority that believes that integration has been an economic boon for the nation and a strong majority that says EU membership has been good. And only in Poland, a non-euro zone country that is also not a member of the European Central Bank, does more than half have a favorable opinion of that institution.

Nevertheless, the symbols of a united Europe retain public support. Despite the falloff in EU favorability, most Europeans surveyed still see the European Union in a positive light, including 69% of the Poles, 68% of the Germans and 60% of the French and Spanish. And more than half in all five euro area countries surveyed – including 71% of the Greeks, 69% of the French and 66% of the Germans – would like to keep the euro as their currency and not return to the drachma, the franc, the mark or other national currencies.

The euro crisis has also undermined support for free market capitalism. Solid majorities in only three of the eight countries surveyed – Germany 69%, Britain 61%, and France 58% – still believe that people are better off in a free market system. Moreover, since 2007, before the global financial crisis began, belief in capitalism is down 23 percentage points in Italy, 20 points in Spain, 15 points in Poland, 11 points in Britain, and nine points in the Czech Republic. In comparison, over that same time frame backing for the free market has remained relatively unchanged in the United States.

Deepening Gloom

As might be expected in a time of turmoil, Europeans are profoundly dissatisfied with the direction their countries are taking. This is nothing new. Europeans have been consistently downbeat about the state of their nations for the entire 11 years the Pew Global Attitudes Project has been surveying in Europe. But this year the mood is particularly grim. Miniscule numbers of Greeks (2%), Spanish (10%) and Italians (11%) say their country is on the right course. And satisfaction is down a whopping 41 percentage points in Spain since 2007, before the crisis began. The Germans, however, see things quite differently. More than half (53%) are satisfied with Germany’s trajectory. And such sentiment has brightened by 20 points in the last five years.

Dissatisfaction with their country’s direction tracks Europeans’ bleak assessment of their national economies. A median of just 16% of Europeans surveyed think their economy is performing well. The Greeks (2%), the Spanish (6%) and the Italians (6%) are particularly despairing. Again the Germans differ – 73% give strong marks to their economy. Europeans’ economic assessments have not changed that much since 2011. But there has been a profound negative turn in economic sentiment since 2007. Positive views of the economy have fallen 59 points in Spain and 54 points in Britain in the last five years. Again the Germans are the outliers. They are 10 points happier about the state of their economy than they were in 2007.

This concern about the economy is helping fuel frustration with the creation of a unified Europe. In a number of countries, strong majorities of those who think their economy is in bad shape also believe that European integration has been bad for their country, including two-thirds of the French (67%) and the Germans (67%) who are concerned about the economy and nearly that many Czechs (65%) and British (64%). Similarly, among those Germans who think the economy is doing poorly, 54% think that having the euro as their currency has been bad for Germany. A plurality (44%) of the French who are worried about their economy also are critical of the euro.

Europeans are divided over who is to blame for their economic woes. Among those who say their economy is bad, the Greeks (87%), Italians (84%), Poles (90%) and Czechs (91%) complain that their own governments are responsible for current economic distress. The French (74%), and Spanish (78%) fault the banks and other major financial institutions. The British and the Germans blame both. Such sentiments have not changed much in the last year. Notably, Europeans do not blame the United States.

A Bleak Future

Most Europeans have little hope for their economy’s future and do not think their children will have an easy time improving their lot, yet they acknowledge that, for all their current and possible future troubles, today’s generation is better off than their parents.

Across the board, Europeans expect the adverse effects of the euro crisis to continue for the immediate future. A median of 22% of those surveyed see the economy improving over the next year. The least optimistic are the Greeks (9%). The most optimistic are the British, but still only a third (32%) have a positive outlook. By comparison, Americans (52%) are 30 points more upbeat about the trajectory of the economy than are Europeans.

Among the EU nations surveyed, a median of 47% seriously doubt that their children will be able to climb the economic ladder. Such generational pessimism is particularly profound in those societies most hard hit by the euro crisis. Nearly three-quarters (73%) of the Greeks, 69% of the Spanish and 62% of the Italians worry it will be very difficult for young people in their countries to get a better job and to become wealthier than their parents. Notably, Germans are less pessimistic about economic mobility than are Americans.

Despite their glum assessment of current economic conditions and their doubt about economic prospects for their country and their children, Europeans do consider themselves better off than the previous generation. A median of nearly six-in-ten (59%) says their standard of living is superior to that of their parents. This is comparable to Americans’ (60%) view. Only in France (48%) does less than a majority see themselves as better off.

Pervasive Worry

Despondent about the economy, pessimistic about their economy’s prospects and worried about their children’s futures, Europeans see economic threats on all sides. Nearly nine-in-ten Europeans (88%) surveyed say unemployment poses a major threat to their economic well-being. This includes almost all the Spanish (97%) and all the Greeks (97%). Eight-in-ten (81%) think their country’s national debt is a threat, including again 97% of Greeks. And three-in-four (74%) Europeans surveyed believe rising prices could undermine their well-being. Inflation is particularly a concern in Greece (93%) and Italy (89%).

Greek and Spanish concern about joblessness is hardly surprising. The Greek unemployment rate was 21.7% in the months prior to the Pew Global survey. And in Spain it was 24.1% the month of the poll. But 70% of Germans are also worried about the lack of jobs even though Germany has a jobless rate of 5.6%, the lowest among the eight European countries surveyed. Similarly, Greek (97%) and Italian (81%) concern about the size of their national debt is in line with the 160.8% debt-to-GDP ratio in Greece and the 120.1% debt-to-GDP ratio in Italy. But 82% of the Czechs are also worried about their public indebtedness even though their debt to GDP ratio is only 41.5%. Most strikingly, 93% of the Greeks are concerned about rising prices even though their inflation rate is only 2.4%.

Americans also fret about all of these economic challenges. But they are markedly less worried than Europeans about both the national debt (71% concerned compared with 81% in Europe) and inflation (64% worried compared with 74% in Europe).

Little Faith in Leaders or Policies

Europeans have little faith in the ability of most of their leaders to deal with current economic challenges. Nor do they put much stock in many of the economic policy options now being pursued.

At the time the survey was taken in late March and early April, only minorities of the public in Spain (45% for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy), Greece (32% for Prime Minister Lucas Papademos), Poland (25% for Prime Minister Donald Tusk) and the Czech Republic (25% for Prime Minister Petr Necas) thought their country’s leader was doing a good job handling the European economic crisis. About half of the British (51%) gave Prime Minister David Cameron good marks on this issue, while 48% of Italians said the same about Prime Minister Mario Monti. But weeks before he lost his bid for reelection, French President Nicolas Sarkozy still enjoyed the confidence of 56% of the French public for his management of the crisis.

In stark contrast, 80% of Germans thought Chancellor Angela Merkel had done a good job as an economic manager. Such appreciation for her acumen extends across most of the European countries surveyed. Strong majorities in six of the other seven nations said she was doing a fine job. Only the Greeks demurred. Just 14% gave her good marks.

Despite their widespread concern about national debt, Europeans evidence little support for further fiscal austerity in their ongoing debate about government spending. In five of seven nations, clear majorities say fiscal belt tightening is about right or has gone too far. This is particularly true in Spain (73%) and Britain (71%).

But Europeans are divided on the question of whether financial assistance should be provided to EU countries that run into major financial difficulties. In richer EU member countries – Britain (62%), France (56%) and Germany (48%) – close to half or more of the population opposes their government providing bailouts. As might be expected, in poorer EU nations, most say other EU governments should provide assistance to struggling nations.

There is general resistance to the recent decision to grant the European Union the authority to exercise limited oversight of national budgets. Three-quarters of the British (75%), Greeks (75%) and Czechs (73%) oppose this loss of national sovereignty.

A Europe Divided?

At a time when it faces its most serious economic challenge since its creation, the European Union is, in some ways, fractured into multiple, often discordant, elements. But these divisions do not always cut along presumed lines. Germans stand alone in their perceptions of their recent experience, their attitudes toward European unity and, in the eyes of their fellow Europeans, in terms of their character traits. But, contrary to their popular portrayal, the Germans do not differ markedly from other Europeans on policy issues. On many counts, it is the Greeks who are the most isolated in Europe. Meanwhile, a north-south split within Europe is far from clear cut.

The public mood in Germany is considerably more positive than elsewhere in Europe. They are the only Europeans surveyed who are satisfied with the direction of their country and who think their economy is doing well. Germany is the only country where a majority of the population currently thinks that European economic integration has strengthened the national economy. Germans are most likely, by far, to say that EU membership has been a good thing. They are the least concerned about the lack of jobs, rising prices and the power of unions. Germany is the most admired country in the EU and its chancellor the most respected leader. The Germans are seen by others as the most hard-working of Europeans and as the least corrupt.

But in public policy debates – over austerity, bailouts and budgetary sovereignty – German attitudes do not differ greatly from those of other Europeans.

Anti-German sentiment is most prevalent in Greece, where a majority (78%) has an unfavorable opinion of Germany, with nearly half (49%) of the population saying they have a very unfavorable view. Greece is the only country where a majority (84%) thinks German Chancellor Angela Merkel is doing a bad job dealing with the economic crisis. And they are intensely critical: 57% say she is doing a very bad job. The Greeks are, by far, the most likely to think that the power wielded over their economy by Germany and other European Union countries poses a major threat to their economy. And the Greeks are the least likely among Europeans surveyed to say the Germans are hardworking.

Their anti-German sentiment is only one measure of how Greeks and their country are isolated within Europe. None of Greece’s fellow EU members hold a positive view of the Aegean nation. And, since 2010, favorable views of Greece have fallen by 28 points in Poland, 20 points in France, 16 points in Spain, 13 points in Germany and 12 points in Britain.

The Greeks are the least happy with the direction of their country and the most upset about the state of their national economy among the European populations surveyed. They are the least optimistic about the economy and the most pessimistic about economic mobility. They are among the most fearful about unemployment, debt and inflation and the least supportive of the free market system. Greeks are the most critical of European economic integration and the European Central Bank. They are the most supportive of bailouts and among the most opposed to outsiders looking over their shoulder as they prepare their national budget. At the same time, seven-in-ten Greeks (71%) have a favorable view of their own country. Only the Germans (82%) and the British (78%) are more nationalistic. And 60% of the Greeks see themselves as the most hardworking people in Europe.

The north-south divide in Europe, a topic of great concern in policy circles in Brussels, is by no means uniform. No country in northern Europe has a positive view of Greece. But Britain, France and Germany still hold positive views of Italy and Spain.

Southern Europeans are more dissatisfied than northerners with the direction of their countries, more worried about the state of their economy and the most worried about economic mobility. But southerners share with northerners their disenchantment with the results of European integration.

There is no north-south divide on coping with the crisis. As might be expected, wealthy northern countries are less supportive of financial bailouts than poorer southern nations. But there is no clear-cut division of opinion on austerity or EU oversight of national budgets. Finally, with regard to the perception of the national character of the residents of southern European countries, the British, French and Germans judge the Greeks, Italians and Spanish to be the laziest people in Europe and among the most corrupt. However, Italians and Spaniards largely share this negative image of themselves and their southern counterparts.

Despite economic difficulties and political uncertainty, Egyptians remain upbeat about the course of the nation and prospects for progress. Amid rancorous debates over the presidential election and the shape of a new constitution, most Egyptians continue to want democracy, with two-in-three saying it is the best form of government.

Egyptians also want Islam to play a major role in society, and most believe the Quran should shape the country’s laws, although a growing minority expresses reservations about the increasing influence of Islam in politics. When asked which country is the better model for the role of religion in government, Turkey or Saudi Arabia, 61% say the latter. However, most also endorse specific democratic rights and institutions that do not exist in Saudi Arabia, such as free speech, a free press, and equal rights for women.

Seven-in-ten Egyptians express a favorable view of the Muslim Brotherhood, down just slightly from 75% a year ago. Most (56%) also have a positive opinion of the Brotherhood-affiliated Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), the largest party in the newly elected parliament. The more conservative al-Nour fares less well: 44% have a favorable and 44% an unfavorable view of the Salafist party. Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, a Salafist leader who was recently disqualified as a presidential candidate, gets somewhat better ratings (52% positive, 42% negative).

Presidential contender Amr Moussa receives overwhelmingly positive marks, with 81% expressing a positive opinion of the former Foreign Minister and Arab League chief. Meanwhile, 58% have a favorable view of moderate Islamist presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh.

The April 6^th Movement, a loose organization of mostly young and secular activists that played a key role in the demonstrations that forced Hosni Mubarak from office, is rated favorably by 68% of Egyptians. However, the Egyptian Bloc, a mostly secular coalition of political parties, is not popular – just 38% assign it a positive rating.

While many have criticized the military in recent months for its handling of the post-Mubarak transition, it continues to be largely well-regarded. Three-in-four Egyptians believe the military is having a good influence on the country, and 63% hold a positive opinion of the ruling Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF). And while favorable ratings for SCAF Chairman Mohamed Tantawi have declined significantly from last year’s 90%, they remain high at 63%.

Most Egyptians support civilian control of the military, but other key institutional features of democracy are considered higher priorities. Roughly six-in-ten (62%) say civilian control is an important priority, but only 24% consider it very important, essentially unchanged from 27% in 2011. In contrast, 81% believe a fair judiciary is very important, similar to last year’s 82%. Views toward other key democratic rights and institutions also show little change since last year.

These are among the principal findings from a nationwide survey of Egypt by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 1,000 adults in Egypt between March 19 and April 10, 2012. The poll finds little change in Egyptian perceptions of the United States. Only 19% offer a positive rating of the U.S. and just 29% express confidence in President Obama. The survey also finds ongoing opposition to the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel: 61% prefer to annul the treaty, up from 54% a year ago.

Desire for Democracy, But Also Order and Growth

Egyptians continue to voice confidence in democracy. Two-thirds consider it preferable to any other kind of government, while just 19% say in some circumstances a non-democratic form of government may be best, and just 13% believe it doesn’t really matter what kind of government rules the country. Roughly six-in-ten (61%) think democracy is best-suited for solving the country’s problems, while only 33% say a leader with a strong hand would be better equipped for dealing with these challenges.

At the same time, it is clear that Egyptians also want law and order: six-in-ten consider this a very important priority. And the economy remains a major concern. About eight-in-ten (81%) say improving economic conditions should be a top priority. Just 27% describe the country’s economic situation as good, down from 34% in 2011. Still, on balance, Egyptians remain optimistic about their economic future: 50% expect the economy to improve over the next 12 months, only 20% think it will worsen, and 28% believe it will stay about the same.

A growing number of Egyptians sees Islam as playing a major role in the political life of the country – 66% currently compared with 47% in 2010. For the most part, those who believe Islam is playing a large role see this as good for the country, but more disagree with that view this year than last. Conflicting views about the role of religion in politics are also seen in the significant numbers who say Saudi Arabia is the best model for Egypt, yet endorse key features of democracy. Among those who choose Saudi Arabia over Turkey as the best model for Egypt, two-thirds also say democracy is preferable to any other kind of government. More than six-in-ten say it is very important to live in a country with a free press (64%), honest multiparty elections (63%), and freedom of speech (61%).

U.S. Image Still Negative

America’s image remains overwhelmingly negative – only 19% offer a favorable opinion of the U.S., basically unchanged from 20% in 2011. But a large majority does not see the U.S. as having a major influence on political developments in Egypt.

Egyptian opinions about President Obama have grown steadily more negative over the course of his presidency. In a 2009 poll conducted a few months after he took office, Egyptians were divided over the new American president: 42% expressed a great deal or some confidence that he would do the right thing in world affairs; 47% said they had little or no confidence.¹ Today, 29% have confidence in Obama, while 69% lack confidence.

Although the U.S. has sent billions of dollars in aid to Egypt over the last few decades, few believe it is helping the country. Indeed, roughly six-in-ten say both American military and economic aid are having a mostly negative impact on Egypt.

Despite these negative sentiments, a majority of Egyptians says either they want the U.S.-Egypt relationship to stay about as close as it has been in recent years (35%) or become even closer (20%), while 38% would like to see relations become less close.

Overall, Egyptians believe the U.S. exerts a limited influence on their country’s tumultuous politics. When asked whether the American response to Egypt’s political situation is having a positive or negative impact, 62% say it is having neither.

Moreover, few believe there is a hidden Western hand behind the country’s ongoing protests. Just 21% say the demonstrations are a result of Western efforts to destabilize Egypt, while 74% think the protests reflect genuine Egyptian discontent with the country’s political situation.

Also of Note

• Six-in-ten say the People’s Assembly, Egypt’s newly elected lower house of parliament, is having a positive influence on the country, while 39% believe it is having a negative effect.
• Four-in-ten believe that under an FJP-led government women will have more rights than they had in the past, while 27% say they will have fewer rights. Roughly three-in-ten (31%) think women will have about the same rights as in the past.
• Views toward one-time presidential hopeful Mohamed ElBaradei have soured. In 2011, 57% held a positive view of the former International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) chief, while just 39% rated him negatively. Now opinions are divided: 48% favorable, 50% unfavorable.
• Fayza Abul Naga, the Egyptian Cabinet official who led efforts to prosecute American NGO representatives (as well as representatives from Egyptian and other foreign NGOs) enjoys little popularity. Abul Naga, who is a holdover from the Mubarak era, receives a favorable rating from 35% of Egyptians, while 50% offer a negative assessment.

Despite these decidedly negative attitudes, most Egyptians want their country’s relationship with the U.S. to stay about as close as it is currently or become even closer. About four-in-ten (38%) would like to see a more distant relationship between the two countries.

While the conflict over American NGOs’ democracy-promotion efforts in Egypt severely strained bilateral relations with the U.S., few Egyptians believe that Western powers are behind the country’s ongoing protests.

Poor Ratings for the U.S. and Obama

The tremendous political changes that have taken place in Egypt since the end of the Mubarak era have not led to a major shift in perceptions of the U.S. Roughly eight-in-ten Egyptians (79%) express unfavorable attitudes toward the U.S., with just 19% saying favorable. This is essentially unchanged from 2011, when 79% were unfavorable and 20% were favorable.

President Obama also receives low marks from most Egyptians. About seven-in-ten (69%) say they do not have confidence in him to do the right thing in world affairs; just 29% have a lot or some confidence in his actions. There has been a steady decrease in confidence in Obama since 2009, when Egyptian opinions about the new American leader were nearly split, with 42% expressing confidence and 47% saying not much or none at all.

Views toward President Obama have become considerably more negative over the last year among younger Egyptians. In 2011, 44% of 18-29 year-olds had a lot or some confidence in President Obama. Today, just 24% say the same. Attitudes toward the U.S. leader have remained constant among other age groups since 2011.

Negligible Impact of U.S. on Political Situation

Most Egyptians (62%) believe the U.S. has had neither a good nor bad influence on the political situation in their country. Roughly one-in-five (21%) say the impact is negative, while 15% believe it is positive.

Despite some claims that American NGO’s were trying to stir up discontent, only 21% of Egyptians say recent protests are due to attempts by Western powers to destabilize the country. Instead, a broad majority (74%) believes they are the result of genuine Egyptian dissatisfaction with the current political situation.

Little Support for U.S. Aid

There is no consensus among Egyptians as to whether American financial assistance to their country is primarily economic or military. A plurality (34%) believes the aid is mostly to help Egypt develop economically, while 23% say the aid is mostly military. Nearly three-in-ten (28%) believe it is divided equally between economic and military assistance, and 14% offer no opinion.

Both types of American aid are viewed negatively by Egyptians. About six-in-ten (61%) say U.S. military aid has a harmful influence on Egypt, while just 11% believe its impact is positive, and 25% say it has no impact. Similarly, 61% consider U.S. economic aid harmful, while the remainder of the public is split between positive views (21%) and the belief that the aid has no impact (17%).

Still, Less Than Half Want a More Distant Relationship

Despite the broadly negative opinions toward the U.S., less than half of the Egyptian public (38%) wants the relationship between the two nations to be less close. The remainder of the public either wants the relationship to be about as close as it is now (35%) or closer (20%).

Opinions on this question are very similar to 2011, when 43% of Egyptians said they would like to be less close to the U.S, 40% about as close, and 15% closer.

Attitudes toward the bilateral relationship are strongly related to views about American aid. Those who believe economic and military aid have a harmful impact on Egypt are significantly more likely to say they prefer a more distant relationship. For example, among those who say economic aid has a negative impact, 51% want a less close relationship with the U.S., compared with 19% of those who think economic assistance is having a positive impact.

Over the last year, Egyptians age 50 and older have become less negative about their country’s future relationship with the U.S. In 2011, 45% of the older age group wanted a less close relationship, compared with 32% today. There has been no significant change on this question among Egyptians under 50.

Treaty With Israel

Most Egyptians favor overturning the 1979 peace treaty in which Egypt became the first Arab country to formally recognize Israel. Roughly six-in-ten (61%) want to annul the treaty, up slightly from last year (54%). Just under a third (32%) want to maintain it.

Opposition to the treaty has grown significantly over the last year among young people and the highly educated. Support for annulling the treaty has increased by 14 points among 18-29 year-olds and by 18 points among the college-educated.

Nearly a year ago, as Japan struggled with the devastation wrought by the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami, the United States military launched “Operation Tomodachi,” a major humanitarian aid mission, to help the Japanese government respond to the crisis. The effort made a strong impression on the Japanese people – ratings for the U.S. reached sky-high levels following the American mission. And it was not the first time that relief to those in need has enhanced America’s reputation. In recent years, both Indonesians and Pakistanis have expressed more positive views about the U.S. after receiving significant levels of disaster relief. However, the Indonesian and Pakistani examples also suggest that the impact of humanitarian efforts has its limits.

In Japan, America’s overall image was already quite positive before the tsunami. Roughly two-in-three Japanese respondents (66%) expressed a favorable view of the U.S. in a spring 2010 survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. But a year later, in a Pew survey conducted just weeks after the tsunami, 85% gave the U.S. a positive rating, the highest percentage among 23 nations polled. Similarly, a September-October, 2011 survey, conducted by the Japanese Cabinet Office, found 82% expressing a “friendly feeling” toward the U.S., the highest percentage since the annual poll began in 1978.

Of course, many things can affect how people view the U.S., but the aid clearly had an impact. Nearly six-in-ten Japanese (57%) said the U.S. provided a “great deal” of assistance following the disaster, while another 32% said the U.S. gave a “fair amount” of assistance. In contrast, fewer than one-in-five believed the European Union, United Nations, or China had provided a great deal of aid.

Japanese public opinion also shifted on an issue that is frequently a weak spot of America’s global image: the perception that the U.S. tends to ignore the interests of other countries. In 2010, just 31% of Japanese respondents said the U.S. takes into account the interests of countries like Japan; a year later, 51% held this view.

Indonesia is another example of a country where humanitarian efforts led to a more positive image for the U.S.; and importantly, it is an example of improvement in a predominantly Muslim nation where opinions of the U.S. had soured dramatically after the onset of the Iraq war. Prior to Iraq, the U.S. was generally popular in Indonesia, but in a 2003 poll taken after American forces dislodged Saddam Hussein from power, only 15% of Indonesians expressed a favorable opinion of the U.S.

The Pew Global Attitudes Project next surveyed Indonesia in spring 2005, only months after the devastating December 2004 tsunami that struck the Banda Aceh region and other parts of the country. Roughly eight-in-ten (79%) said that post-tsunami aid from the U.S. had improved their impression of America, and positive views of the U.S. more than doubled, rising from 15% in 2003 to 38% in the 2005 poll. Meanwhile, the percentage saying the U.S. takes into account the interests of countries like Indonesia jumped from 25% in 2003 to 59% in 2005.

Still, the Indonesian example also illustrates the limits of the aid effect. Attitudes toward the U.S. improved significantly in 2005, but they did not bounce back to pre-Iraq war levels; and ratings for the U.S. again slipped somewhat in 2006. America’s image did not truly recover until 2009, when President Barack Obama – who lived in Jakarta for several years as a child – took office.

A starker example of the limits of disaster relief is Pakistan. Following a devastating October 2005 earthquake in northern Pakistan, the U.S. pledged significant levels of aid, eventually totaling more than $500 million. Shortly after the tragedy, U.S. Chinook helicopters could be seen rescuing victims. A spring 2006 Global Attitudes survey found that the vast majority of Pakistanis were aware of American relief efforts – 85% said they had heard about post-earthquake aid – and views of the U.S. improved modestly, with 27% of Pakistanis giving the U.S. a positive rating, up from 23% the previous year.

There is some evidence that the U.S. assistance did have a long-lasting effect on attitudes at the local level–among those directly impacted by the aid. In a survey conducted four years after the earthquake, researchers Tahir Andrabi and Jishnu Das found that Pakistanis living near the fault line were more likely to express trust in Americans and Europeans than were those living farther away. Andrabi and Das reasoned that this higher level of trust was a result of greater exposure to Western humanitarian aid organizations in these hard hit areas.

But at the national level, Pew surveys illustrate how quickly the goodwill receded. By spring 2007, U.S. favorability had slipped to 15% in Pakistan.

Similarly, the U.S. received no image boost in 2011, despite providing nearly $600 million in disaster relief following the summer 2010 floods that directly affected as many as 20 million Pakistanis. Only 11% of Pakistanis offered a favorable opinion of the U.S. in an April 2011 Pew survey – a decline of six percentage points from 2010. (The poll was conducted prior to the military raid that killed Osama bin Laden, but a subsequent Pew survey in May 2011 found no significant change in overall ratings for the U.S.).

Why no image bump in Pakistan? Distrust of American motives and opposition to key elements of U.S. foreign policy may run too deep in Pakistan for humanitarian efforts to have a significant impact over the long term. About seven-in-ten Pakistanis see the U.S. as an enemy; less than 10% consider it a partner. Most think the U.S. favors archrival India over Pakistan. American anti-terrorism efforts are viewed with suspicion, the drone campaign and the war next door in Afghanistan are widely opposed, and while President Obama receives significantly higher ratings than his predecessor across much of the globe, this is not the case in Pakistan, where Obama gets essentially the same low marks assigned to former President George W. Bush during his tenure.

The lesson for disaster relief efforts is that they are more likely to have a significant effect on public attitudes in countries where there is at least a reservoir of goodwill toward the U.S. In nations such as Pakistan, where countervailing issues and deeply held suspicions drive intense anti-Americanism, enhancing America’s image through humanitarian aid may prove considerably more difficult.

Is Your Country Popular Abroad?

When asked how their country is viewed abroad, majorities in 18 of 22 nations say their country is generally liked. Indonesians are the most likely to think their country is well-regarded – roughly nine-in-ten (92%) say Indonesia is generally liked by people in other nations, although at least 80% say their country is popular in India (87%), Jordan (85%), China (80%) and Brazil (80%).

However, while America’s overall image may have improved around the world over the last two years, most Americans think their country is unpopular. Six-in-ten Americans say the U.S. is generally disliked by people in other countries, while just 35% say is it generally liked. Among the 22 nations surveyed, only Turks (27%) are less likely than Americans to think their country enjoys international popularity. Still, Americans are more likely to think their country is popular abroad now than they were in 2005, when just 26% held this view.

Aside from the U.S. and Turkey, the only other nations where less than a majority thinks their country is generally liked are Russia (36%) and Pakistan (40%). Pakistanis are much less likely to believe their country is popular now than in 2005, when 53% held this view.

Aid and Disaster Relief

Substantial numbers in many countries identify the U.S. as a global leader both in promoting international development and helping nations recover from natural disasters.

When asked which country is doing the most to help poor nations develop, more in seven of the 16 nations where this question was asked name the U.S. than any other country. And the U.S. is the second-most-named in another three nations.

However, responses to this question are diffuse and it is clear that there is no general consensus on this issue. For instance, even though the U.S. is the top pick in seven countries, South Korea is the only nation in which a majority names the U.S.

Publics in these 16 countries express fairly similar views on the issue of how nations respond to natural disasters. When asked which country does the most to help countries that have experienced natural disasters, people in five nations choose the U.S. more than any other country, while the U.S. is the second- most-cited in another six. Again, responses are diffuse, and South Korea is the only country in which a majority identifies the U.S.

Aside from South Korea, the U.S. receives relatively high marks both for its development aid and its disaster relief efforts in several other countries where its overall favorability ratings are high, such as Poland, Nigeria and Kenya.

The U.S. is also the top pick for disaster relief in Indonesia, where it provided considerable aid following the December 2004 tsunami, although the U.S. garners only 20% of the total. In Pakistan, where the U.S., among others, provided aid following an October 2005 earthquake and where it continues to give large amounts of both military and development aid today, few name the U.S. as their top choice. Only 13% of Pakistanis think the U.S. is doing the most to help poor nations develop and 12% say it does the most to help after natural disasters.

Even though these questions asked which country does the most to help poor nations develop and which country does the most following disasters, respondents in many nations name the United Nations. For instance, it is the top pick for both development aid and disaster relief in all three Arab nations surveyed: Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon.

There is also a tendency in many places for respondents to name their own country. Russians, Turks, Chinese, Argentines, and Brazilians all think their countries are leaders both in providing development aid to poor countries and in helping after natural calamities. Meanwhile, Indians and Mexicans name their nations as the leaders for disaster relief.

Views on International Engagement

The U.S. is often portrayed as being isolationist, but this survey suggests that Americans are not that different from citizens of other developed nations on this issue. Americans – along with the Germans, Spanish, and British – are roughly divided over how much their country should help other nations.

In the U.S., 46% say their country should focus on its own problems, while 45% believe it should help other countries deal with their problems. By a slim 52%-44% margin, Germans lean slightly towards helping other nations. The Spanish are almost evenly divided on this issue, while the British lean slightly toward a more isolationist position.

Among the nations where this question was asked, the outliers are Japan and France. Japanese respondents are the most internationalist: 55% say they should help other countries, while only 38% believe Japan should deal with its own problems. The French emerge as the most isolationist public – nearly two-thirds (65%) say their country should focus on issues at home, while only 35% believe it should assist other nations.

Military Force Is Sometimes Necessary

Among the countries surveyed, a consensus exists on the use of military force: In 17 of 22 countries, a majority agrees that “It is sometimes necessary to use military force to maintain order in the world.”

Majorities in five of the seven NATO member states surveyed support the use of military force to maintain world order. This perspective is especially common in the U.S., where 77% say military force is sometimes needed, unchanged from 2007 when this question was last asked.

Fully 73% hold the same view in Britain, up from 67% in 2007. The share of Poles who think force can be necessary has also increased slightly, from 56% to 61%.

Trends have moved in the opposite direction, however, in France and Spain. While majorities in these two nations continue to say military action can be necessary to ensure stability, the share of the public expressing this view has dropped by 10 percentage points in both countries.

Less than a majority say force is sometimes necessary in Germany (46%) and Turkey (49%). Only three years ago, roughly three-in-four Turks (74%) said military force is sometimes required to maintain order.

Elsewhere, majorities in Jordan (64%) and Egypt (59%) disagree with the notion that military means should sometimes be used for the sake of global stability. A majority in Lebanon (58%) embraces the use of such means to ensure world order.

In Asia, majorities consistently agree that force can be necessary. This is especially true in India (92%), although most in Pakistan (73%), Indonesia (72%), China (60%) and Japan (57%) also agree with this position. In South Korea, more now (56%) hold this view than did so in 2007 (43%).

In Africa, more than six-in-ten in Kenya (66%) and Nigeria (61%) currently agree with the need for a military approach at times, while roughly three-quarters did so in both countries in 2007 (Kenya 75%, Nigeria 74%).

Threats to Russia

Many Russians believe their country faces serious threats from abroad. Moreover, Russians are concerned about the rise of Islamic extremism, both in their country and in the world.

More than half of Russians (57%) believe there are countries that are enemies of Russia. When those who perceive such threats were asked to name the states they consider to be antagonists, a plurality points to the U.S. (35%), while 22% name Georgia. Far smaller proportions name Afghanistan (5%) or states that border Russia – Latvia (3%), Ukraine (3%), China (3%), Lithuania (1%) and Estonia (1%). Only 3% of Russians name Iran while 2% say Iraq.

Russians who say their country has enemies were also given the opportunity to name the nation’s second and third biggest threats. Looking across all three mentions, the U.S. and Georgia were again cited most often.

A large majority of Russians are concerned about the rise of Islamic extremism in their country (79%) and the world (78%). And Russians’ concern about the rise in Islamic extremism is intense; 45% say they are very worried about such activities in both Russia and the world.

Concern about the rise of extremist violence is particularly common in Central Russia, a region recently touched by extremist violence. This survey, conducted less than two months after the bombings of the Moscow Metro in March 2010, finds that 93% of people living in Central Russia say they are very or somewhat concerned about the rise of Islamic extremism in their country. Fewer Russians living in the South (69%) hold the same view. Similar regional patterns of concern also exist about the rise of Islamic extremism in the world.

Anxiety about the threat of extremism has changed somewhat in the last several years. In 2005, not long after the September 2004 terrorist attack on a school in Beslan, Russia, 84% of Russians expressed concern about the rise of Islamic extremism in their country; 52% were very concerned. In 2006, such anxiety dipped somewhat; at that time, 74% of Russians expressed worry about the rise of Islamic extremism in Russia.

The 2010 World Cup

Brazilians express more confidence in their country’s chances to win the World Cup than do publics in any other country surveyed with a team in the tournament; three-quarters in that country say five-time champion Brazil will once again prevail. Confidence is also high in Spain, where a majority (58%) expects their country, which has never won a World Cup, to emerge victorious this year.

Confidence is low in Japan, where just 4% think their country will win the World Cup. South Koreans, who co-hosted the 2002 World Cup with Japan, also have low expectations for their team, as do Americans; only 11% and 13%, respectively, name their own countries when asked who will win this year’s tournament.

Japan and South Korea are the only World Cup participants surveyed where more name a team other than their own as the eventual winner; in both, Brazil is the most often named country.

In the 11 countries surveyed that are not participating in the soccer competition, more also name Brazil as this year’s likely winner than name any other team. This view is especially common in China, where about three-in-ten (31%) say the soccer powerhouse will win the World Cup; the second-most-named country, Argentina, is mentioned by 14% of Chinese.

The survey, which was conducted prior to the start of the World Cup, finds that, despite low expectations about their team’s chances, South Koreans were among the most excited about the tournament. About eight-in-ten (79%) said they were looking forward to the World Cup. This level of enthusiasm about the 2010 World Cup, the first-ever to be held in the African continent, was matched only in Nigeria (79%). About seven-in-ten (71%) Kenyans also expressed excitement. Americans were among the least enthusiastic; 27% said they were excited about the World Cup, while 68% said they were not.

The Kaiser/Pew Global Health Survey, a unique new partnership between the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Pew Global Attitudes Project, examines how people around the world perceive and prioritize health in their countries and gauge the efforts of donor nations. As the report details, there is great variation in how health figures into people’s lives, and to what extent it is viewed as a problem for governments to address. Key findings from the 47-country survey include:

• Public health priorities in low and middle income countries. Preventing and treating HIV/AIDS is the top-rated health priority in the countries surveyed in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Fighting hunger and malnutrition is the top priority among countries surveyed in Latin America and the Middle East. And access to health care is seen as the top priority in Central/Eastern Europe. Almost all low and middle income countries surveyed rate each health issue quite high. Majorities in 23 of 34 low and middle income countries say every one of the nine health issues asked about should be “one of the most important” for their government to address.
• HIV/AIDS. Among “high prevalence countries” (defined here as those with an estimated HIV prevalence of 5% or more) and “next wave countries” (considered to be at earlier, but emerging, stages of their epidemics with large populations potentially at risk for HIV infection), large majorities say that HIV is a bigger problem now than it was five years ago, but there is also a strong sense of progress in terms of HIV prevention and treatment in most countries.
• Foreign aid resonates with recipients. Majorities in nearly every country surveyed say wealthier countries are not doing enough to help poorer nations with problems such as economic development, reducing poverty, and improving health. But among countries surveyed that were major recipients of development aid, people were much more likely to say that wealthy nations are “doing enough” to help poorer nations. Among the countries most likely to say wealthy nations are doing enough are Indonesia and sub-Saharan African nations, which have been the focus of tsunami relief and efforts to combat HIV/AIDS, respectively. In addition, the survey shows substantial support among wealthier nations to do more to help poorer nations.

In Indonesia, where President Bush travels early next week after attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Vietnam, America’s image has undergone some dramatic ups and downs over the last few years. As in much of the world — and especially in Muslim countries — hostility toward the U.S. skyrocketed among Indonesians following the invasion of Iraq in 2003. But America’s image rebounded when a horrific tsunami hit Indonesia in December of the following year and the U.S. stepped in with considerable public and private aid. That act of generosity provided greatly needed assistance to victims of the disaster, and ultimately helped resuscitate America’s popularity somewhat in the world’s largest Muslim country.

In 2002, the Pew Global Attitudes survey found that six-in-ten Indonesians (61%) held a favorable view of the United States. A year later, following the U.S. invasion of Iraq, only 15% of Indonesians had a positive opinion, a dramatic 46-point plunge.

When Pew next surveyed Indonesia in 2005, however, America’s favorable rating had more than doubled to 38%, an increase due in large part to the aid provided by the U.S. after the December 2004 tsunami that killed an estimated 167,000 in Indonesia. Indeed, 79% of Indonesians said that the aid led them to have a more positive view of the U.S. A year later, the 2006 survey shows a slight decline in evaluations of the U.S., although at 30%, America’s favorable rating is still significantly higher than it was in 2003.

Of course, the impact of this humanitarian assistance should not be overstated — some of the same misgivings about the U.S. seen throughout the Muslim world can be found in Indonesia, and most Indonesians (67% in 2006) continue to have a negative impression of the U.S.

Other attitudes about the U.S. exhibit a similar pattern — a nadir around the beginning of the Iraq war, followed by an increase after the tsunami, and a leveling off or slight decline in 2006. For instance, after the tsunami, Indonesians were less likely to believe the U.S. acts only out of self-interest in world affairs. In 2002, 41% said the U.S. takes into account the interests of countries like Indonesia when making foreign policy decisions, but in 2003 this figure dropped to 25%. By 2005 however, a solid majority (59%) said the U.S. considers the interests of countries like theirs. This question was not, however, asked in 2006 so it is not known if it would have paralleled the decline seen in the other indicators.

Opinion of President Bush also improved following the tsunami aid, although he remains largely unpopular. Whereas in 2003 only 8% had a lot or some confidence in Bush to do the right thing in world affairs, in 2005 and 2006, one-in-five (20%) proclaimed confidence in Bush. Even this low level of support makes Indonesia the most pro-Bush Muslim population included in the 2006 survey, including Muslim populations in Britain, France, Germany, and Spain.

Support for U.S.-led efforts to fight terrorism also spiked after the tsunami, rising from 23% in 2003 to 50% in 2005, before sliding to 39% in 2006. Of course, Indonesia has had its own direct experiences with terrorism in recent years, suffering devastating bombings by Islamic extremists in Bali in 2002 and 2005 and in Jakarta in 2003 and 2004. Over this time period, support for terrorism among Indonesians has declined sharply.

In 2002, more than a quarter of Indonesians said suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilian targets in order to defend Islam from its enemies can often or sometimes be justified, while another 16% said such attacks can be justified on rare occasions. Just over half felt that this type of violence can never be justified.

By 2006, after several years of terrorist violence in Indonesia, support for terrorism had dropped significantly — only 10% now say violence against civilians can often or sometimes be justified, and seven-in-ten (71%) reject such acts completely.

Similarly, support for Osama bin Laden has also declined. While a troublingly high number of Indonesians still have either a lot or some confidence in bin Laden to do the right thing in world affairs — 33% — his level of support is considerably lower now than in 2002, when nearly six-in-ten Indonesians said they had confidence in the al Qaeda leader.