More than a year after the first stirrings of the Arab Spring, there continues to be a strong desire for democracy in Arab and other predominantly Muslim nations. Solid majorities in Lebanon, Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and Jordan believe democracy is the best form of government, as do a plurality of Pakistanis.

Indeed, these publics do not just support the general notion of democracy – they also embrace specific features of a democratic system, such as competitive elections and free speech.

A substantial number in key Muslim countries want a large role for Islam in political life. However, there are significant differences over the degree to which the legal system should be based on Islam.

The United States is not seen as promoting democracy in the Middle East. In newly democratic Tunisia, only about three-in-ten believe the American response to the political upheaval in their country has had a positive impact.

Despite the tumult and uncertainty of the last year, views about democracy are mostly unchanged since 2011, although support has declined somewhat in Jordan. Enthusiasm for democracy tends to be generally less intense in Jordan and in Pakistan. It is consistently strong in Lebanon and Turkey.

While democratic rights and institutions are popular, they are clearly not the only priorities in the six Muslim majority nations surveyed. In particular, the economy is a top concern. And if they had to choose, most Jordanians, Tunisians and Pakistanis would rather have a strong economy than a good democracy. Turks and Lebanese, on the other hand, would prefer democracy. Egyptians are divided.

There is also a strong desire for Islam to play a major role in the public life of these nations, and most want Islam to have at least some influence on their country’s laws. Majorities in Pakistan, Jordan and Egypt believe laws should strictly follow the teachings of the Quran, while most Tunisians and a 44%-plurality of Turks want laws to be influenced by the values and principles of Islam, but not strictly follow the Quran.

About four-in-ten Lebanese say laws should not be influenced at all by the teachings of the Quran, although on this issue – as on many issues – views vary sharply along religious and sectarian lines. While 63% of Lebanese Christians and 38% of Sunni Muslims say laws should not be guided by the Quran, just 13% of Shia Muslims agree.

Just as opinions about religion and politics vary across these six nations, so do views about gender equality. Majorities in all six believe women should have equal rights as men, and more than eight-in-ten hold this view in Lebanon and Turkey. However, in Egypt – where the role of women in society has been a heavily debated issue throughout the post-Mubarak transition period – a slimmer 58%-majority favors equal rights, while 36% oppose the idea. Only 53% of Egyptian men endorse equal rights.

Moreover, while many support the general principle of gender equality, there is less enthusiasm for gender parity in politics, economics, and family life. For instance, many believe men make better political leaders, that men should have more of a right to a job than women when jobs are scarce, and that families should help choose a woman’s husband.

These are among the key findings from a survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted in six predominantly Muslim nations March 19 to April 20.¹ The poll, which is part of the broader 21-nation spring 2012 Global Attitudes survey, found considerable optimism – at least among Arab publics – about the prospects for democracy in the region. Solid majorities in Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan and Lebanon said the 2011 popular uprising would lead to more democracy in the Middle East. Turks and Pakistanis, on the other hand, were less hopeful.

This report includes a special section on Tunisian public opinion (see Part II). In the nation where the Arab Spring began, large majorities say they are dissatisfied with the country’s direction and its economic situation. While Tunisians embrace their country’s nascent democracy, they are divided over whether things in their country have actually gotten better since long-running dictator President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali was forced from office. Still, most are hopeful about Tunisia’s future and optimistic that the economy will improve in the next 12 months. And despite the dissatisfaction with current conditions, the ruling Islamist party Ennahda receives positive marks from 65% of Tunisians.

Both Democracy and Economy Are Priorities

Majorities in five of the six nations polled (and a plurality of Pakistanis) believe democracy is the best form of government. Moreover, there is a strong desire in these nations for specific democratic rights and institutions, such as competitive multi-party elections and freedom of speech.

Other goals are also clearly important. Many say political stability is a crucial priority, and even more prioritize economic prosperity. When respondents are asked which is more important, a good democracy or a strong economy, Turkey and Lebanon are the only countries where more than half choose democracy. Egyptians are divided, while most Tunisians, Pakistanis and Jordanians prioritize the economy.

Overall, views about the economic situation in these countries are grim, although Turkey is a notable exception. Nearly six-in-ten Turks (57%) say their country’s economy is in good shape, but at least seven-in-ten in Pakistan, Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan offer negative assessments.

A Major Role for Islam in Public Life

In five of six nations, solid majorities say Islam is already playing a large role in the country’s political life. In newly democratic Tunisia, where the Islamist party Ennahda won the largest share of votes in the recent parliamentary elections, fully 84% think Islam has a major role.

Similarly, in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood has won both parliamentary and presidential elections, 66% hold this view, up from 47% two years ago.

The view that Islam plays a large role in political life has also become more prevalent in Pakistan over the last two years. Meanwhile, more than six-in-ten in Turkey and Lebanon believe Islam is a major part of political life in their countries. This view is especially pervasive among Lebanese Christians – 75% think Islam has a major role.

The clear exception on this issue is Jordan. Only 31% of Jordanians believe Islam currently plays a large part in their nation’s political life, while 63% say it has a small role. Among the majority of Jordanians who say Islam is playing a small role, 80% say it is a bad thing that Islam has only a minor part in the country’s politics.

Support for Gender Equality – but Not in All Circumstances

While majorities in all six countries support the principle of gender equality, there are significant differences between men and women on this issue. The most striking gender gap is in Jordan, where 82% of women but just 44% of men say women should have the same rights as men.

Moreover, while there is majority support for the idea of gender equality, this does not necessarily apply to specific aspects of public and private life. For instance, at least half in Tunisia, Pakistan, Turkey and Jordan say men make better political leaders. When it comes to economics, most say women should be able to work outside the home, but most also believe that when jobs are scarce, jobs for men should be the first priority. And in the personal realm, many of those surveyed believe a woman’s family should help choose her husband, rather than the woman herself – indeed, in Pakistan and Jordan this is the majority view.

Limited Support for Extremist Groups

Extremist groups are largely rejected in predominantly Muslim nations, although significant numbers do express support for radical groups in several countries. For instance, while there is no country in which a majority holds a favorable opinion of the Palestinian organization Hamas, it receives considerable support in Tunisia, Jordan and Egypt.

The militant Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah receives its highest overall ratings in Tunisia, where nearly half express a positive opinion. Sizable minorities in both Jordan and Egypt also have a favorable view, but Hezbollah’s image has been declining in both countries in recent years. In its home country, views about Hezbollah are sharply divided along sectarian lines: 94% of Shia, 33% of Christians, and 5% of Sunnis give the group favorable marks.

Across all six nations, less than 20% have a positive opinion about al Qaeda or the Taliban. In Turkey and Lebanon, support for these groups is in the single digits. However, fully 19% of Egyptians rate these extremist organizations favorably.

Turkey and Erdogan Popular

Turkey, which has significantly increased its diplomatic profile in recent years, particularly in the Middle East, is held in high regard in the predominantly Muslim nations surveyed. Solid majorities in all six nations express a favorable opinion of Turkey. Moreover, its leader, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the moderate Islamist party AKP, also receives largely positive reviews.

Most of those surveyed believe Turkey favors democracy in the Middle East, including roughly three-in-four in the newly democratic nations of Egypt and Tunisia. Fewer say this about Saudi Arabia, although more than half in Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan think the oil-rich kingdom does support democracy in the region.

Yet, relatively few believe the United States wants democracy in the Middle East, including just 37% in Egypt, a major recipient of American democracy promotion funds in recent years. Exceedingly few think Israel favors democracy in the Middle East – just 10% or less in all six nations hold this view.

Tunisians Unhappy With State of Country, but Still Hopeful

Nearly eight-in-ten Tunisians (78%) are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country and a similar number (83%) describe current economic conditions as bad. And the country is split over whether it is better off now that Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali is no long in power.

However, Tunisians show few signs of wanting a return to autocracy. A majority says a democratic government is preferable, even if that means some risk of instability, and large majorities deem rights and institutions such as a fair judiciary, honest elections, and free speech very important.

And while they are glum about current conditions, they are hopeful about the future. Two-thirds (66%) are optimistic about Tunisia’s future, and 75% think the country’s economy will improve in the next 12 months.

The ruling Ennahda party gets largely positive reviews – 65% have a favorable opinion of the Islamist organization, which was banned from politics during the Ben Ali era. Two Ennahda leaders, party co-founder Rached Ghannouchi and current Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali, are viewed favorably by about two-in-three Tunisians.

The U.S. receives mixed reviews in Tunisia. Overall, 45% have a favorable and 45% an unfavorable view of the U.S. However, President Barack Obama gets mostly poor marks – 57% say they have little or no confidence that Obama will do the right thing in world affairs. And there is no consensus among Tunisians about how the U.S. has handled the political changes taking place in their country – 31% believe the American response has had a positive effect, 27% say it has been negative, and 25% volunteer that the U.S. has had no impact.

Also of Note

• While few in Tunisia and Egypt describe the current economy as good, there is optimism about the future – 75% of Tunisians and 50% of Egyptians believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months.
• On balance, opinions about Iran are negative, although Pakistan is a clear exception – 76% of Pakistanis have a favorable view of Iran, and 47% rate President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad positively.
• Syrian President Bashar al-Assad generally receives very negative ratings across the nations included in the survey (For more on views about Syria and President Bashar al-Assad, see “Widespread Condemnation for Assad in Neighboring Countries,” released June 21, 2012).

Few express positive views of extremist groups Hamas and Hezbollah. Still, both groups have substantial minority support in several countries. Al Qaeda and the Taliban, on the other hand, are viewed negatively by majorities in all the nations polled.

Worries About Extremism Remain Steady

Majorities in Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia and Pakistan are concerned about Islamic extremism in their countries. Concern is particularly high in Lebanon, where roughly eight-in-ten (81%) voice a worry about extremism. In Jordan, opinion is divided, while in Turkey only about a third (32%) are concerned about the threat.

In five of the six predominantly Muslim countries surveyed, concern about extremism is essentially unchanged since last year. Turkey is the lone exception. In 2011, just months after an October 2010 suicide bombing in the center of Istanbul, concern about Islamic extremism was at 52%. Today, that number has fallen 20 percentage points and is at its lowest point since the question was first asked in 2006.

In Turkey, men are slightly more worried about Islamic extremism than women (27%), while in Pakistan women are much more concerned. Roughly seven-in-ten Pakistani women (71%) are very or somewhat concerned, while only 46% of men say the same.

Hamas Viewed Unfavorably By Most

In four of the six predominantly Muslim countries polled, publics express an unfavorable view of Hamas. In Tunisia, half express a favorable view of the militant Palestinian organization, while in Pakistan, nearly three-in-four (73%) offer no opinion.

Despite Hamas being a Sunni organization, roughly six-in-ten Lebanese Shia (58%) hold a favorable view of Hamas, but only 28% of Sunnis and 14% of Christians do.

Support for Hamas has held generally steady over the past year, with only a slight decline in Egypt (-6 percentage points). However, support for the extremist group is down substantially in Pakistan and Jordan since 2007.

Religiosity plays a role in views of Hamas in Egypt, where 54% of Muslims who pray less than five times per day have a favorable opinion of the Palestinian organization, compared with only 32% who pray five times per day.

Limited Support for Hezbollah

Ratings of Hezbollah are generally negative, with majorities in Egypt, Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon holding an unfavorable view of the Shia group. In Tunisia, a 46%-plurality has a favorable view of the Lebanon-based organization, while 74% in Pakistan have no opinion.

Lebanese views of Hezbollah are sharply divided among religious groups, with 94% of Shia expressing favorable views of the militant group, compared with only one-third of Christians and 5% of Sunnis.

Over the last five years, positive views of Hezbollah have declined substantially in Egypt (-36 percentage points) and Jordan (-25) to their lowest levels measured since the question was first asked in 2007.

Favorable views of the militant group have also fallen in Pakistan (-28), although the number of people having no opinion has gone up by a similar amount in that country over this time period.

Views of al Qaeda

Majorities in all the predominantly Muslim nations polled express negative views of al Qaeda, including more than seven-in-ten in Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and Turkey.

In Tunisia, only 16% have a favorable view of the terrorist organization, with roughly six-in-ten (63%) holding a negative opinion.

Support for al Qaeda is mostly unchanged from last year. In Jordan, however, just 14% express a positive opinion today, down significantly from 34% in 2010.

(For more on Muslim views about al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, see “On Anniversary of bin Laden’s Death, Little Backing of al Qaeda,” released April 30, 2012).

Overwhelming Disdain for the Taliban

Less than two-in-ten in all Muslim countries polled have a favorable view of the Taliban, with majorities in every country holding an unfavorable view. Negative opinions of the Taliban are especially high in Lebanon (97% unfavorable), Jordan (81%), and Egypt (76%).

This distaste for the extremist Islamist organization is evident across age, gender and educational groups in each of the countries surveyed.

(For more on Pakistani views of the Taliban see, “Pakistani Public Opinion Ever More Critical of U.S.,” released June 27, 2012.)

As President Obama prepares to make a major address on the tumultuous changes spreading throughout the Middle East, a new survey finds that the rise of pro-democracy movements has not led to an improvement in America’s image in the region. Instead, in key Arab nations and in other predominantly Muslim countries, views of the U.S. remain negative, as they have been for nearly a decade. Indeed, in Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan, views are even more negative than they were one year ago.

With the exception of Indonesia, Obama remains unpopular in the Muslim nations polled, and most disapprove of the way he has handled calls for political change roiling the Middle East. Moreover, many of the concerns that have driven animosity toward the U.S. in recent years are still present – a perception that the U.S. acts unilaterally, opposition to the war on terror, and fears of America as a military threat. And in countries such as Jordan, Lebanon, and Pakistan, most say their own governments cooperate too much with the U.S.

While the Arab Spring has not led to a change in America’s image, it has generated considerable interest and excitement, especially in the Arab nations surveyed. More than 85% in Jordan, Egypt, the Palestinian territories, and Lebanon have followed news about political demonstrations in the region, and in Arab countries there is widespread optimism that the protests will lead to more democracy. Most Israelis have also followed the political upheaval in neighboring countries, but they are divided over whether it will produce more democratic societies.

The survey, conducted by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project March 21-April 26, suggests the enthusiasm for democracy displayed by protestors in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere is consistent with public opinion in majority Muslim nations.¹ Democracy is widely seen as the best form of government, especially in Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt, where more than seven-in-ten hold this view. Moreover, people in the Muslim nations surveyed clearly value specific features of a democratic system, such as freedom of religion, free speech, and competitive elections. And publics in many Muslim countries increasingly believe that a democratic government, rather than a strong leader, is the best way to solve national problems.

Still, the embrace of democracy coexists with a strong desire for economic growth and political stability. Many prioritize a strong economy over a good democracy. And when they are asked about the key elements of a successful democracy, those in the surveyed nations place economic prosperity and political stability at the top of the list.

Ideas about the role of Islam in society vary across Muslim nations. In Pakistan, Jordan, and Egypt, solid majorities believe laws should be based strictly on the teachings of the Quran, while this is a minority viewpoint in Turkey, Lebanon, Indonesia, and the Palestinian territories. Views about Islamic fundamentalism also vary widely – in Pakistan for instance, Muslims tend to sympathize with fundamentalists, while Lebanese and Turkish Muslims favor those who disagree with fundamentalists.

The poll also highlights the extent to which extremism is rejected in Muslim nations, although there are notable levels of support for radical Islamist groups and suicide terrorism in some countries. Al Qaeda is rated negatively by majorities in all countries, but more than a quarter express a positive opinion of the terrorist group in the Palestinian territories. There is no country in which a majority rates the radical Palestinian organization Hamas positively – still, it receives considerable support in Jordan and Egypt. Among the Palestinians themselves, Hamas is less popular than Fatah, its more secular rival.

The militant Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah receives majority support only in the Palestinian territories. In Lebanon itself, views of Hezbollah reflect the sharp religious divisions within that society. While nearly nine-in-ten Lebanese Shia offer a positive view of Hezbollah, nine-in-ten Sunnis and three-quarters of Christians rate the organization negatively.

In recent years, Pew Global Attitudes surveys have documented a decline in support for suicide bombing in a number of countries, and today the percentage of Muslims who say this type of violence is often or sometimes justifiable stands at 10% or less in Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan. Support for these acts is somewhat more common in Arab nations, although there have been steep declines over the last decade in Lebanon and Jordan.

Palestinian Muslims, however, remain an outlier on this question: 68% say suicide attacks in defense of Islam can often or sometimes be justified, a level of support essentially unchanged from 2007. And in Egypt, support for suicide bombing is actually on the rise – currently, 28% believe it can be justified, up from 8% in 2007.

There is no country in which a majority has a favorable opinion of the militant Palestinian organization Hamas. Among Palestinians themselves, Hamas’ image has declined in recent years, and its more moderate rival Fatah is rated much more positively.² Still, about four-in-ten Palestinians rate Hamas favorably, as do nearly half in Arab neighbors Jordan and Egypt.

Similarly, views of the Lebanese Shia Muslim group Hezbollah are on balance negative, but significant minorities rate Hezbollah favorably in several nations, and it is highly popular among Lebanese Shia and Palestinians.³

Majorities in Arab nations, Turkey and Indonesia all have a negative opinion about al Qaeda. The terrorist organization receives it strongest support in the Palestinian territories, where more than one-quarter give al Qaeda a positive rating. Views about al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden followed a similar pattern: before his death, he was widely rejected among Muslim publics, although he was viewed positively by about one-in-three Palestinians.

There is only limited support for suicide bombing in most of these nations, although Palestinian Muslims are a clear outlier: 68% say this kind of violence is justifiable. And while in Lebanon support for suicide terrorism has declined since 2002 – as it has in many countries – 35% of Lebanese Muslims still say it can be justified. Moreover, in Egypt support for suicide attacks has gradually increased over the last four years.

Views of Hamas

In Jordan, where Hamas receives its highest ratings, views about the organization are essentially divided: 47% express a favorable opinion, 50% an unfavorable one. Support for Hamas is higher among those in Jordan who identify as Palestinian (53% favorable) than among those who identify as Jordanian (39%). Overall, support for the militant Islamist group has slipped considerably in Jordan since last year, when six-in-ten said they viewed Hamas favorably.

By a narrow margin, Egyptians give Hamas more unfavorable (51%) than favorable (45%) ratings. This is a shift from two years ago, when the balance of opinion was positive (52% favorable, 44% unfavorable).

Roughly four-in-ten Palestinians (42%) express a positive view of Hamas, although this varies considerably across the two regions that comprise the Palestinian territories. In Gaza, which is controlled by Hamas, only 34% give the group a positive rating. In contrast, Palestinians living in the West Bank – which is controlled by Hamas rival Fatah – are almost evenly divided: 47% have a favorable view and 51% have an unfavorable opinion.

Hamas’ popularity has waned since 2007, when about six-in-ten Palestinians held a positive view of the organization. And it is now considerably less popular than the more secular Fatah, which receives a favorable rating from 73% of Palestinians, including more than seven-in-ten in both the West Bank (72%) and Gaza (75%). Fatah leader, and Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas is also well-regarded: 65% of Palestinians say they have confidence in him to do the right thing in world affairs, including solid majorities in both the West Bank (61%) and Gaza (73%).

In Lebanon about a third (34%) view Hamas favorably, although opinions vary considerably across religious and sectarian lines. Roughly seven-in-ten (71%) Shia Muslims express a positive view of Hamas (which is a Sunni organization). It receives significantly less support among the country’s Sunni Muslims (13% favorable) and Christians (21%).

Three-in-ten Israeli Arabs (30%) say they have a favorable opinion of Hamas (1% of Israeli Jews give Hamas a positive rating).

Outside of the Arab world, Indonesians fall almost equally into three groups: one-third view Hamas favorably, about a third see it in a negative light, and another third have no opinion. Overwhelmingly, Turks reject Hamas (10% favorable, 70% unfavorable). And in Pakistan more than seven-in-ten offer no opinion.

Views of Hezbollah

By a wide margin, Hezbollah receives its most positive ratings in the Palestinian territories, where 61% view the militant Shia organization favorably (the population of the Palestinian territories is overwhelmingly Sunni). However, it is much more popular in the West Bank (74% favorable) than in Gaza (39%).

In its home country, about four-in-ten say (38%) they have a favorable view of Hezbollah, although there are sharp divisions among religious communities. An overwhelming majority of Lebanese Shia Muslims (87%) express a positive view of Hezbollah, compared with just 8% of Sunni Muslims and 24% of Christians.

Lebanon’s religious divisions also shape attitudes toward Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah: 95% of Shia Muslims have confidence in him to do the right thing in world affairs; only 15% of Sunnis and 24% of Christians share this view.

In Jordan, 36% express a favorable view of Hezbollah, down substantially from 54% in last year’s poll. Only 24% of Egyptians give the militant group a positive review, down from as high as 56% in 2007.

Elsewhere, Indonesians are slightly more positive (37%) than negative (32%) about Hezbollah. Very few Turks (5%) offer a favorable view of the organization. And the vast majority of Pakistanis decline to give an opinion.

Although Israel fought a 34-day war with Hezbollah in 2006, roughly half (48%) of Israeli Arabs have a positive opinion of the organization; 41% offer a negative view.

Views of al Qaeda

There is relatively little support for al Qaeda in Arab nations, Turkey and Indonesia. The terrorist group registers its highest level of support in the Palestinian territories, where 28% express a favorable opinion. Roughly one-in-five Indonesians (21%) and Egyptians (21%) have a positive view of al Qaeda.

Among Jordanians, 15% rate al Qaeda favorably, and, as is the case for Hamas and Hezbollah, al Qaeda’s image has declined in Jordan since last year, when 34% offered a positive opinion.

Meanwhile, almost no Turks (4%) or Lebanese (3%) express positive sentiments about al Qaeda.

Before his death, al Qaeda’s leader, Osama bin Laden, was largely unpopular in majority Muslim nations. He received his highest ratings in the Palestinian territories (34% had confidence in him to do the right thing in world affairs), followed by Indonesia (24%), Pakistan (21%), Egypt (21%), Jordan (13%), Turkey (3%), and Lebanon (1%). In recent years, support for bin Laden had declined in all of these nations (For more on Muslim views about bin Laden, see “Osama bin Laden Largely Discredited Among Muslim Publics in Recent Years,” May 2, 2011.)

Suicide Terrorism

Only a minority of Muslims – and in some cases a very small minority – endorses suicide terrorism in these nations, with one clear exception: the Palestinian territories. Roughly seven-in-ten Palestinian Muslims (68%) say that suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilian targets can often or sometimes be justified in order to protect Islam from its enemies. Large majorities hold this view in both Gaza (70%) and the West Bank (66%).

About a third of Lebanese Muslims (35%) say this type of violence is often or sometimes justified, and this view is especially prevalent among the country’s Shia community (40%). There is somewhat less support for suicide attacks in Egypt (28%) and significantly less in Jordan (13%). Among Israel’s minority Muslim population, one-in-five endorse this kind of attacks, up from 7% in 2009.

Outside of the Arab Middle East, there is less support for suicide bombing: just 10% of Indonesian, 7% of Turkish, and 4% of Pakistani Muslims say it can be justified.

Over the last decade, support for suicide terrorism has declined significantly across much of the Muslim world. For instance, in 2002, 74% of Lebanese Muslims said suicide bombing is often or sometimes justifiable, compared with 35% this year. In Pakistan – a nation plagued by terrorism over the last few years – 41% of Muslims said these attacks are often or sometimes justified in 2004; just 4% hold that view today.

However, the high level of support for suicide violence in the Palestinian territories has not changed over time. And in Egypt, support has actually been slowly on the rise since 2007 – then, only 8% of Muslims said suicide bombing can often or sometimes be justified to protect Islam from its enemies; today, 28% hold this view – the same percentage as in 2006.

Hezbollah receives its most positive ratings in Jordan, where 55% of Muslims have a favorable view; a slim majority (52%) of Lebanese Muslims also support the group, which operates politically and militarily in their country.

But Muslim views of Hezbollah reflect a deep sectarian divide in Lebanon, where the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is threatening violence if a United Nations tribunal indicts Hezbollah members for the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. More than nine-in-ten (94%) Lebanese Shia support the organization, while an overwhelming majority (84%) of Sunnis in that country express unfavorable views.

In neighboring Egypt and Turkey, attitudes toward Hezbollah are generally negative. Just 30% of Muslims in Egypt, and even fewer (5%) in Turkey, offer favorable views of the Lebanon-based organization. Outside of Turkey and the Middle East, many

Muslims cannot rate Hezbollah, but views are on balance positive among those who do offer an opinion of the group in Nigeria and Indonesia.

The survey, conducted April 12 to May 7 by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, finds that the Palestinian organization Hamas, which, like Hezbollah, has been classified as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and other Western governments, also receives mixed ratings across the Muslim publics surveyed. Jordanian Muslims express the most support – 60% have a favorable view of Hamas – while Muslims in Turkey offer the least positive ratings (9% favorable and 67% unfavorable). Opinions of Hamas are nearly evenly split in Egypt and Lebanon.

In most countries, views of Hamas and Hezbollah have changed little, if at all, since 2009. In Indonesia, however, more Muslims express favorable views of both groups now than did so last year; 39% now have positive views of Hamas, compared with 32% last year, and 43% have favorable opinions of Hezbollah, compared with 29% in 2009. And among Nigerian Muslims, favorable views of both Hamas and Hezbollah are now less common than they were in 2009 (49% vs. 58% and 45% vs. 59%, respectively).

While views of Hamas and Hezbollah are mixed, al Qaeda – as well as its leader, Osama bin Laden – receives overwhelmingly negative ratings in nearly all countries where the question was asked. More than nine-in-ten (94%) Muslims in Lebanon express negative opinions of al Qaeda, as do majorities of Muslims in Turkey (74%), Egypt (72%), Jordan (62%) and Indonesia (56%). Only in Nigeria do Muslims express positive views of al Qaeda; 49% have a favorable view and just 34% have an unfavorable view of bin Laden’s organization. (Findings regarding opinions of al Qaeda and bin Laden were previously released in “Obama More Popular Abroad Than at Home, Global Image of U.S. Continues to Benefit,” June 17, 2010.)

The survey also finds that Muslim publics overwhelmingly welcome Islamic influence over their countries’ politics. In Egypt, Pakistan and Jordan, majorities of Muslims who say Islam is playing a large role in politics see this as a good thing, while majorities of those who say Islam is playing only a small role say this is bad for their country. Views of Islamic influence over politics are also positive in Nigeria, Indonesia, and Lebanon.

Turkish Muslims express more mixed views of the role Islam is playing in their country’s political life. Of the 69% who say the religion plays a large role, 45% see it as good and 38% see it as bad for their country. Among the minority of Muslims who say Islam plays a small role in politics, 26% consider this to be good for Turkey and 33% say it is bad.

When asked for their views about democracy, majorities in most of the Muslim communities surveyed say that democracy is preferable to any other kind of government. This view is especially widespread in Lebanon and in Turkey, where at least three-quarters of Muslims (81% and 76%, respectively) express a preference for democratic governance. Support for democracy is less common in Pakistan, but a plurality (42%) of Muslims in that country prefer democracy to other types of government; 15% of Pakistani Muslims say that, in some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable, and 21% say that, for someone like them, the kind of government their country has does not matter.

Also of Note:

• Many Muslims see a struggle between those who want to modernize their country and Islamic fundamentalists. Only in Jordan and Egypt do majorities say there is no such struggle in their countries (72% and 61%, respectively).
• At least three-quarters of Muslims in Egypt and Pakistan say they would favor making each of the following the law in their countries: stoning people who commit adultery, whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft and robbery and the death penalty for those who leave the Muslim religion. Majorities of Muslims in Jordan and Nigeria also favor these harsh punishments.
• Eight-in-ten Muslims in Pakistan say suicide bombing and other acts of violence against civilian targets in order to defend Islam from its enemies are never justified; majorities in Turkey (77%), Indonesia (69%) and Jordan (54%) share this view. Support for suicide bombing has declined considerably over the years. For example, while 74% of Muslims in Lebanon said these violent acts were at least sometimes justified in 2002, just 39% say that is the case now; double-digit declines have also occurred in Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Indonesia.

Views of Hezbollah

Muslim publics offer a mixed view of Hezbollah. The Shia organization, which has political and military operations in Lebanon, receives favorable ratings from 55% of Jordanian Muslims and from an even narrower majority (52%) of Muslims in Lebanon. Not surprisingly, Lebanese Shia are particularly supportive of Hezbollah – 94% have a favorable view, compared with 12% of Sunni Muslims and 20% of Christians in Lebanon.

In Egypt, views of Hezbollah are overwhelmingly negative; just three-in-ten Muslims in that country have a favorable opinion of the group, while 66% have an unfavorable opinion. Egyptian Muslims have become increasingly critical of Hezbollah in recent years. In 2007 and 2008, majorities said they had a positive view of Hezbollah (56% and 54%, respectively); in 2009, 43% of Muslims in Egypt said that was the case.

Outside of the Middle East, many cannot rate Hezbollah. About seven-in-ten Muslims in Pakistan (69%) as well as nearly three-in-ten Muslims in Nigeria (28%) and Indonesia (27%) and 21% in Turkey do not offer an opinion. In Nigeria and Indonesia, Muslim views of Hezbollah are, on balance, positive; more than four-in-ten Muslims in each country express favorable views (45% and 43%, respectively), while about a quarter in Nigeria (26%) and 30% in Indonesia have unfavorable opinions of the organization.

Views of Hezbollah have become more favorable among Indonesian Muslims compared with last year, when 29% expressed positive opinions; among Nigerian Muslims, opinions are now less favorable than they were in 2009, when nearly six-in-ten (59%) had positive views of the Lebanese-based group.

In Turkey, Muslims offer overwhelmingly negative opinions of Hezbollah, as has been the case the three previous years when this question was asked. About three-quarters (74%) of Turkish Muslims have an unfavorable view of the extremist group, while just 5% see it favorably, virtually unchanged from last year.

Views of Hamas

Of the Muslim publics surveyed, Jordanians express the most positive views of the extremist group Hamas. Six-in-ten Muslims in Jordan have a favorable opinion of the

militant Palestinian organization, while just 34% have an unfavorable view. In contrast, Muslims in the other Middle Eastern countries polled are nearly evenly divided in their views of Hamas: 49% of Muslims in Egypt and Lebanon have a favorable opinion and 48% in each country have an unfavorable view of the group.

In Lebanon, Muslim views of Hamas reflect a sharp sectarian divide. About nine-in-ten Lebanese Shia (92%) express favorable views of the Palestinian group, although its membership is predominantly Sunni. Among Sunnis in Lebanon, however, an overwhelming majority rejects Hamas; 86% have an unfavorable view and just 9% have a favorable opinion of the organization. Christians in that country share the views of Sunni Muslims; 87% have a negative view of Hamas, while one-in-ten have a positive view.

As with views of Hezbollah, many outside of the Middle East cannot rate Hamas. Nearly seven-in-ten Pakistani Muslims (69%) and about a quarter of Muslims in Indonesia (27%), Nigeria (26%) and Turkey (24%) do not offer an opinion of the Palestinian group. In Nigeria, the balance of opinion is positive; twice as many Muslims in that country have a favorable view of Hamas (49%) as have an unfavorable view (25%). Yet, favorable ratings of Hamas have declined since 2009, when about six-in-ten (59%) Nigerian Muslims expressed positive opinions.

Nigerian Christians offer far more negative ratings of Hamas than do Muslims in that country; just one-in-ten have a favorable opinion and four-in-ten have an unfavorable opinion of the Islamic group. Half of Christians in Nigeria do not offer an opinion of Hamas.

In Turkey, opinions of Hamas are decidedly negative, with just 9% of Muslims expressing favorable views and two-thirds giving the militant organization an unfavorable rating. Opinions of Hamas are more mixed in Indonesia and Pakistan.

For the most part, views of Hamas vary little, if at all, across demographic groups. Yet, in Egypt, the Palestinian group receives more support from older and less educated Muslims. More than half (55%) of Egyptian Muslims ages 50 and older have a favorable view of Hamas, compared with 48% of those ages 30 to 49 and 45% of those younger than 30. And while 54% of those with a primary education or less express positive opinions, 48% of those with at least some secondary education and even fewer (40%) of those with some college education do so.

Views of al Qaeda and bin Laden

Opinions of al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden remain largely negative among the Muslim publics surveyed. Majorities of Muslims in five of the seven countries express unfavorable views of the extremist group and say they have little or no confidence in its leader.

Lebanese Muslims are, by far, the most critical of al Qaeda and bin Laden. Only 3% have a positive opinion of the organization, while 94% have a negative opinion. Virtually no Lebanese Muslims express confidence in bin Laden; 98% say they have little or no confidence in al Qaeda’s leader. Similarly, just 4% of Muslims in Turkey have a favorable opinion of al Qaeda and 3% express at least some confidence in bin Laden, while 74% offer negative views of both.

In Egypt, about one-in-five Muslims offer positive opinions of bin Laden (19%) and his organization (20%), while more than seven-in-ten express negative views of each (73% and 72%, respectively). Among Muslims in Indonesia, about a quarter have a favorable view of al Qaeda (23%) and express at least some confidence in bin Laden (25%).

Muslims in Jordan offer more positive views of the organization (34% favorable) than of its leader (14% have at least some confidence in bin Laden), although opinions of both are overwhelmingly negative. In 2009, about three-in-ten (28%) Jordanian Muslims had confidence in al Qaeda’s leader.

Pakistani Muslims also have negative views of bin Laden; just 18% express at least some confidence in him, while 45% say they have little or no confidence in the al Qaeda leader. Nearly four-in-ten (37%) do not offer an opinion.

Nigerian Muslims stand apart as the only Muslim public surveyed where views of al Qaeda and bin Laden are, on balance, positive. About half of Muslims in Nigeria express favorable views of the extremist group (49%) and say they have at least some confidence in its leader (48%), while just 34% offer negative opinions of al Qaeda and 40% express little or no confidence in bin Laden.

Views of Osama bin Laden have become increasingly negative in recent years. The change has been especially dramatic in Jordan, where the number of Muslims saying they have at least some confidence in bin Laden has dropped 42 percentage points, from 56% in 2003; double-digit drops are also evident among Muslims in Indonesia (34 percentage points), Pakistan (28 points), Lebanon (19 points) and Turkey
(12 points).

Islam’s Role in Political Life

Majorities of Muslims in three of the six predominantly Muslim countries surveyed, as well as in Nigeria, say that Islam plays a very or fairly large role in the political life of their countries. This view is especially prevalent in Indonesia and Nigeria, where nearly nine-in-ten Muslims (89% and 88%, respectively) say Islam exerts considerable influence in their country’s politics; 69% of Turkish Muslims and 54% of Lebanese Muslims also see Islam playing a large role in the political life of their countries.

In Pakistan, a 46% plurality of Muslims say Islam plays a large role, while 36% say it plays a small role in Pakistani politics. Opinions are about evenly divided in Egypt, where 48% of Muslims say Islam plays a large role in their country’s political life and 49% say it plays only a small role.

Jordan is the only country surveyed where a majority of Muslims say Islam plays a small role in their country’s politics; 64% of Jordanian Muslims say that is the case, while just about a third (34%) sees substantial Islamic influence in political life.

Pakistani Muslims are less likely than they were five years ago to say that Islam plays a large role in their country’s political life; in 2005, more than six-in-ten (63%) saw Islam as having considerable influence. Muslims in Jordan and Lebanon are much less likely than they were in 2002, when the Pew Global Attitudes Project first asked this question, to say Islam is playing a large role in their countries’ politics; nearly two-thirds of Muslims in Lebanon (65%) and 53% in Jordan believed that was the case in 2002. Yet, in Jordan, the percentage of Muslims who say Islam plays a large role in politics has increased somewhat since 2005, when 27% shared that view.

In Turkey, the view that Islam plays a major role in politics has become somewhat more common since 2005, and is now much more common than was the case in 2002. While nearly seven-in-ten currently say Islam exerts considerable influence, Turkish Muslims were basically divided eight years ago: 45% said Islam played a large role and 44% said it played a small role in their country’s politics.

Most Welcome Islam’s Influence

Muslims in Nigeria and in nearly all of the predominantly Muslim countries surveyed overwhelmingly welcome Islamic influence over their countries’ politics.

In Indonesia, about nine-in-ten Muslims (91%) either say that their religion plays a large role in politics and that this is a good thing or that Islam plays a small role and that this is a bad thing. Similarly, at least three-quarters of Muslims in Egypt (85%), Nigeria (82%) and Jordan (76%) consider Islamic influence over political life to be a positive thing for their country, as do 69% of Muslims in Pakistan and 58% in Lebanon.

Only in Turkey are opinions about the role of Islam in political life more mixed. About four-in-ten (38%) Turkish Muslims say Islam plays a large role and embrace its influence in their country’s politics or say it is bad that Islam plays only a small role; about three-in-ten (31%) say Islam’s influence is negative.

Religious and Sectarian Divides on Views of Islam’s Role

Lebanese Christians are far more likely than Muslims in that country to say Islam plays a large role in politics in Lebanon. Two-thirds of Christians see substantial Islamic influence, compared with 55% of Sunni and 52% of Shia Muslims in Lebanon.

In Nigeria, however, Christians are less likely than Muslims to say Islam plays a large role in the political life of their country. While nearly nine-in-ten Nigerian Muslims (88%) believe Islam exerts considerable influence, about six-in-ten (62%) Nigerian Christians share this opinion.

In both Lebanon and Nigeria, Christians express much more negative views than Muslims about the role of Islam in their countries’ politics. About a third (35%) of Nigerian Christians welcome Islamic influence, while 46% see it as a negative thing for their country; Nigerian Muslims overwhelmingly embrace the influence of their religion in political life.

Close to six-in-ten (57%) Lebanese Christians either say that Islam plays a large role and see this as a bad thing or say Islam plays a small role and see this as a good thing for their country; about the same percentage (58%) of Muslims in that country embrace Islamic influence in politics.

Shia Muslims in Lebanon express more negative views about Islam’s influence in politics than do Sunnis, although majorities in both groups welcome the religion’s influence over their country’s political life. About six-in-ten (61%) Sunnis and 54% of Shia either say it is good for Islam to play a large role or that it is bad for Islam to play a small role in Lebanon’s political life. Yet, far more Lebanese Shia than Sunnis describe Islam’s role in a negative way (45% and 21%, respectively).

Modernizers vs. Fundamentalists

Many Muslims see a struggle between groups that want to modernize their countries and Islamic fundamentalists, and in five of the seven countries where the question was asked, more of those who see a struggle identify with the modernizers than with fundamentalists.

More than half in Lebanon (53%) and Turkey (52%) see a struggle in their country between modernizers and fundamentalists. Opinions are more mixed in Indonesia and Nigeria. About four-in-ten (42%) Nigerian Muslims say there is a struggle in their country, while 46% say there is not; in Indonesia, Muslims are equally divided, with 42% saying there is a struggle between those who want to modernize their country and Islamic fundamentalists and the same number saying they do not see a struggle.

A considerable number of Pakistani Muslims (44%) also say there is currently a struggle between modernizers and fundamentalists in their country, but the same percentage of Muslims in Pakistan do not offer an opinion on the matter; just 12% see no struggle.

Only in Jordan and Egypt do majorities of Muslims say there is no struggle between modernizers and Islamic fundamentalists in their countries. About seven-in-ten (72%) Jordanian Muslims and 61% of Egyptian Muslims offer this opinion; just 20% and 31%, respectively, see a struggle in their countries. In both of these countries, however, Muslims are now more likely than they were in 2009 to say there is a struggle; a year ago, 14% of Muslims in Jordan and 22% in Egypt saw a struggle in their countries.

Among Muslims who see a struggle between modernizers and Islamic fundamentalists, majorities in Lebanon (84%), Turkey (74%), Pakistan (61%) and Indonesia (54%) side with those who want to modernize their countries; a plurality of Jordanian Muslims who say there is a struggle in their country also side with the modernizers (48%). In Egypt and Nigeria, however, most Muslims who see a struggle in their countries say they identify with Islamic fundamentalists (59% and 58%, respectively).

Views of Gender Segregation

Muslim publics offer mixed views of gender segregation in the workplace. Pakistani Muslims are the most supportive: 85% say they would favor making segregation of men and women in the workplace the law in their country. A narrower majority (54%) of Muslims in Egypt also support making gender segregation the law in their country.

Opinions are more divided in Jordan and Nigeria. Half of Jordanian Muslims favor gender segregation and 44% oppose it. Among Nigerian Muslims, nearly the same percentage favor making segregation of men and women in the workplace the law in their country (49%) as oppose it (48%).

In Lebanon, Turkey and Indonesia, majorities of Muslims reject legalized gender segregation in the workplace. More than eight-in-ten in Lebanon (89%) and Turkey (84%) express this opinion, as do 59% of Muslims in Indonesia.

In most of the countries where this question was asked, men and women express similar views of gender segregation in the workplace. In Nigeria, however, Muslim men are considerably more likely than Muslim women to say gender segregation should be the law; 57% of Muslim men in Nigeria favor gender segregation, compared with 41% of Muslim women in that country. And in Jordan, Muslim women are especially supportive of segregation of men and women in the workplace; 54% favor it and 42% oppose it, while Muslim men in that country are nearly evenly divided (47% favor gender segregation and 46% oppose it).

Support for Severe Laws

Views of harsh punishments also vary across the Muslim publics polled. Majorities of Muslims in Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan and Nigeria say they would favor making harsh punishments such as stoning people who commit adultery; whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft and robbery; and the death penalty for those who leave the Muslim religion the law in their country. In the other predominantly Muslim countries surveyed – Turkey, Lebanon and Indonesia – most Muslims oppose these measures.

About eight-in-ten Muslims in Egypt and Pakistan (82% each) endorse the stoning of people who commit adultery; 70% of Muslims in Jordan and 56% of Nigerian Muslims share this view. Muslims in Pakistan and Egypt are also the most supportive of whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft and robbery; 82% in Pakistan and 77% in Egypt favor making this type of punishment the law in their countries, as do 65% of Muslims in Nigeria and 58% in Jordan.

When asked about the death penalty for those who leave the Muslim religion, at least three-quarters of Muslims in Jordan (86%), Egypt (84%) and Pakistan (76%) say they would favor making it the law; in Nigeria, 51% of Muslims favor and 46% oppose it. In contrast, Muslims in Lebanon, Turkey and Indonesia largely reject the notion that harsh punishments should be the law in their countries. About three-quarters of Turkish and Lebanese Muslims oppose the stoning of people who commit adultery (77% and 76%, respectively), as does a narrower majority (55%) of Muslims in Indonesia.

Opposition to whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft and robbery and to the death penalty for people who leave Islam is even more widespread in these three countries; 86% of Muslims in Lebanon, 82% in Turkey and 61% in Indonesia are against making harsh punishments for robbery and theft the law in their countries, and 93%, 91% and 64%, respectively, object to the death penalty against those who leave the Muslim religion.

For the most part, views of strict punishments do not vary consistently across demographic groups in seven countries where these questions were asked. One notable exception, however, is in Nigeria, where Muslim men express considerably more support than Muslim women for these types of punishments.

More than six-in-ten (63%) Muslim men in Nigeria favor the stoning of people who commit adultery, while 36% oppose it; Muslim women in that country are evenly divided, with 49% saying they favor and the same number saying they oppose the stoning of adulterers.

When it comes to the death penalty for those who leave Islam, Muslim men in Nigeria are clearly supportive (58% favor and 39% oppose), while a majority of their female counterparts (54%) are against the death penalty for those who leave the Muslim religion; 44% of Muslim women in Nigeria favor it. Finally, while majorities of Muslim men and women in Nigeria favor punishments like whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft and robbery, men are somewhat more likely than women to say they favor these strict measures (69% of men vs. 61% of women).

Support for Democracy

In nearly all of the countries surveyed, support for harsh punishments such as stoning people who commit adultery, whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft and robbery and the death penalty for those who leave the Muslim religion coexists with support for democratic governance. With the exception of Pakistan, majorities of Muslims in all of the predominantly Muslim countries surveyed and in Nigeria say that democracy is preferable to any other kind of government.

Support for democracy is particularly widespread in Lebanon, where about eight-in-ten Muslims (81%) prefer it to any other form of government; 76% of Muslims in Turkey, 69% in Jordan and nearly two-thirds in Nigeria (66%) and Indonesia (65%) also favor democratic government more than any other. A somewhat narrower majority of Muslims in Egypt (59%) say democracy is preferable to any other kind of government.

In Pakistan, just about four-in-ten Muslims (42%) prefer democracy to other types of government; 15% of Pakistani Muslims say that, in some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable, and 21% say that, for someone like them, the kind of government their country has does not matter. About one-in-five Pakistani Muslims (22%) do not offer an opinion.

For the most part, views of democracy among Muslim publics are not tied to demographics. For example, in Nigeria as well as in all six of the predominantly Muslim countries surveyed, Muslims ages 18 to 29 were as likely as those ages 30 to 49 and those 50 and older to say that democracy is preferable to any other kind of government. Similarly, opinions about democracy vary little, if at all, across gender, income and education groups.

In Pakistan, however, Muslims with at least some college education are considerably more likely than those with less education to say that democracy is preferable to any other kind of government; more than half of Pakistani Muslims with some college education or more offer this opinion (53%), compared with 45% of those with a secondary education and just 36% of those with a primary education or less.

Yet, those with less education are not necessarily more likely than those with some college to embrace other forms of government; a similar percentage in each group says that non-democratic government can be preferable and that the kind of government Pakistan has does not matter to people like them. Instead, Pakistani Muslims with a primary education or less are about three times more likely than those with at least some college to decline to offer an opinion (28% vs. 9%, respectively).

In Nigeria, support for democracy is somewhat more widespread among Christians than among Muslims; 76% of Nigerian Christians say democracy is preferable to any other kind of government, compared with 66% of Muslims. Religious differences are less pronounced in Lebanon, where 86% of Christians and 81% of Sunni and Shia Muslims prefer democracy to other forms of government.

Limited Support for Suicide Bombing

The Muslim publics surveyed generally reject the notion that suicide bombing against civilians can be justified in order to defend Islam from its enemies, but there is considerable support for this kind of violence in some countries. Muslims in Lebanon and Nigeria are the most likely to say suicide bombings can often or sometimes be justified; nearly four-in-ten Lebanese Muslims (39%) and 34% of Nigerian Muslims say that is the case.

In Lebanon, support for suicide bombing is especially pervasive among the Shia population – 46% say this kind of violence in defense of Islam can often or sometimes be justified, compared with 33% of Sunnis. (Findings regarding attitudes toward suicide bombing and Islamic extremism were previously released in “Obama More Popular Abroad Than at Home, Global Image of U.S. Continues to Benefit,” June 17, 2010.)

One-in-five Muslims in Egypt and Jordan offer support for suicide bombing in defense of Islam, as do 15% of Indonesian Muslims. Yet, far more in these three countries say these violent acts are never justified; 46% of Muslims in Egypt and a majority in Jordan (54%) and Indonesia (69%) reject suicide bombings. The notion that these types of attacks against civilians are never justified is even more widespread in Pakistan and Turkey, where 80% and 77%, respectively, share this view.

Jordanian and Egyptian Muslims express somewhat more support for suicide bombing than they did in 2009, when 12% and 15%, respectively, said violence against civilians was justified in order to defend Islam. Compared with 2002, however, when the Pew Global Attitudes Project began tracking attitudes on this issue, far fewer across the Muslim world now endorse suicide bombings. For example, the percentage of Muslims saying these types of attacks are often or sometimes justified has declined 35 percentage points in Lebanon (74% in 2002), 25 percentage points in Pakistan (33% in 2002), and 23 percentage points in Jordan (43% in 2002).

Support for suicide bombing does not vary consistently across gender, age, education or income lines. And, for the most part, those who favor the death penalty for people who leave the Muslim religion are no more likely than those who oppose it to say violent acts in defense of Islam can be justified. Only in Indonesia and Nigeria is that not the case; 22% of Indonesian Muslims and 39% of Nigerian Muslims who say people who leave their religion should receive the death penalty say suicide bombings are often or sometimes justified, compared with 12% and 29%, respectively, of those who oppose the death penalty for those who leave Islam.

Widespread Concerns About Extremism

Islamic extremism continues to be a serious concern in nations with substantial Muslim populations. Large majorities in five of the six predominantly Muslim nations surveyed as well as in Nigeria, where roughly half of the population is Muslim, say they are very or somewhat concerned about the rise of Islamic extremism around the world. The only outlier is Turkey, where 39% are concerned.

Many are also worried about the rise of Islamic extremism within their own countries.
That is especially the case in Lebanon, where eight-in-ten – including 90% of Christians, 82% of Shia and 67% of Sunnis – express at least some concern. In Nigeria, roughly three-quarters (76%) are concerned about Islamic extremism in their country, including 83% of Muslims and 68% of Christians.

Nearly two-thirds of Pakistanis (65%) express concern about Islamic extremism in their country, but fears have declined since last year, when 79% shared that view. About six-in-ten in Egypt (61%) and Indonesia (59%) and more than four-in-ten in Jordan (44%) and Turkey (43%) are also concerned about extremism in their countries.

In addition, among the largely Muslim publics surveyed, concern about Sunni-Shia tensions and the struggle between modernizers and fundamentalists is widespread. Most who see a struggle between a more modern and fundamentalist approach side with the modernizers. Also, support for equal education for boys and girls is common.

The Israeli-Palestinian divide is strong and consistent, but so too is the intra-Palestinian divide: those living in the Gaza Strip are less inclined to embrace Hamas and Hezbollah, and are more inclined to believe there is a struggle between modernizers and fundamentalists taking place in their country.

Mixed Views of Hamas

A majority in only two countries – Jordan (56%) and Egypt (52%) – holds a favorable opinion of the militant Palestinian organization Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist organization by the U.S. government as well as by Canada, the European Union, Japan, Israel and Australia. Views of Hamas are negative or mixed elsewhere in the Muslim world.

In the Palestinian territories, opinions of Hamas are on balance negative. About half (52%) of Palestinians express a critical view of Hamas. However, those living in the Hamas controlled Gaza Strip are more likely to reject Hamas than their compatriots in the West Bank. Nearly six-in-ten (59%) Gazans hold an unfavorable view of Hamas, compared with 50% on the West Bank.

In Lebanon, more than two-thirds (68%) have a negative view, though opinions of the country’s two main Muslim communities are polarized. Although Hamas is a predominantly Sunni organization, it is embraced by an overwhelming majority (91%) of Lebanese Shia and rejected by an equally large percentage (97%) of Lebanese Sunnis. It is equally unpopular among Lebanese Christians (88% unfavorable).

Opinions of Hamas among Turks and Israelis are decidedly negative. Roughly two-thirds (69%) of Turks hold an unfavorable opinion of Hamas, while 26% do not offer an opinion and only 5% have a positive view. Israeli opinion is more unequivocal in its rejection of Hamas. Overall 94% of Israelis hold an unfavorable view including more than half (58%) of Israeli Arabs.³

Hamas is less well-known outside of the Middle East. Roughly six-in-ten in Pakistan (62%), four-in-ten in Indonesia (40%), and 28% of Nigerians do not offer an opinion about this Palestinian group. Of those who offer an opinion in Indonesia, views are evenly divided; 31% express a favorable opinion of Hamas, while 28% voice a negative view. Pakistanis who voice an opinion more often tend to express a negative (24%) than a positive (14%) view of Hamas. Nigerian views are divided along religious lines: A majority of Nigerian Muslims (58%) hold a positive opinion of Hamas, while 53% of Nigerian Christians hold an unfavorable view.

Views of Hamas have remained unchanged since 2008 in four (Jordan, Nigeria, Pakistan and Turkey) of the
seven countries for which there is a trend. Elsewhere, positive views of Hamas have increased. More Egyptians hold a positive view of Hamas in 2009 (52%) than the previous year (42%). Similarly, in Indonesia, 31% currently express a favorable rating of Hamas, while 23% did so the previous year.

In Lebanon, positive views have increased slightly overall; 25% of Lebanese held a favorable view of Hamas in 2008, while 30% currently do. However, the divide between Sunni and Shia has widened: Lebanese Sunnis are somewhat less likely now to hold favorable views of Hamas while Lebanese Shia are far more likely to express positive opinions than they were the previous year.

By contrast, since 2007 positive views of Hamas have decreased substantially in the Palestinian territories, particularly among those in the West Bank. Fewer Palestinians overall have a favorable view of Hamas in 2009 (44%) than did in 2007 (62%). Similarly, support for Hamas was quite pervasive in the West Bank in spring 2007 (70% favorable) but is now less common (47% favorable). Support remains still lower in the Gaza Strip, where Hamas now holds control, having declined from 45% in 2007 to 37% in 2009.

In Jordan, women (40%), those with at least some post-secondary education (45%) and those who are financially better off (43%) are more likely to hold unfavorable views of Hamas than men (32%), those with
a high-school education or less (34%) and the poor (27%).⁴

Mixed Views of Hezbollah

Just as with views of Hamas, Muslim-majority publics hold views of Hezbollah that are, on balance, more negative or mixed than positive.

Overall, most Lebanese take a dim view of Hezbollah, the Islamic Shia political and military organization based in Lebanon that is classified as a terrorist organization by the U.S. A solid majority (64%) of Lebanese say they have an unfavorable view of this organization. As in the past, Lebanese opinions are deeply divided along religious lines. Almost unanimously (97%), the country’s Shia community holds a favorable view of Hezbollah. By contrast, just as many among Lebanon’s Sunni community hold the opposite opinion (98%
unfavorable). Similarly, Lebanese Christians largely hold negative views of Hezbollah (80% unfavorable).

In Nigeria, views of Hezbollah are equally as divided along religious lines. Overall, Nigerians are split among holding positive views (35%), negative views (36%) and no opinion (29%) about Hezbollah. However, Nigerian Muslims and Christians hold opposing views. A majority (59%) of Nigerian Muslims hold favorable views of Hezbollah. By contrast, half of Nigerian Christians express negative views of this Islamic organization. Many among both groups do not offer an opinion (Muslims 20%, Christians 38%).

Israeli and Turkish public opinion is unified in its dislike of Hezbollah. Overall, more than nine-in-ten (92%) in Israel have an unfavorable view of the organization, including half of Israeli Arabs. Similarly, nearly three-quarters (73%) of Turks hold a negative view of Hezbollah.

In three of the Muslim-majority publics surveyed, positive views of Hezbollah are more common. Just over six-in-ten (61%) in the Palestinian territories embrace Hezbollah; as in the case of Hamas, far more in the West Bank (69%) than in the Gaza Strip (44%) hold such views. Consistent with past findings, a slim majority (51%) of Jordanians express a positive opinion of Hezbollah. More than four-in-ten (43%) in Egypt also offer a favorable view, although 57% express an unfavorable view.

Indonesians are equally likely to embrace (27% favorable) as reject (30% unfavorable) Hezbollah, though, as in the other predominantly Muslim countries surveyed in Asia and Africa, a substantial percentage (43%) of Indonesians do not offer an opinion. In Pakistan, six-in-ten (60%) say they do not know when asked about their opinion of Hezbollah.

Views of Hezbollah largely remained steady between 2008 and 2009. In four of the seven countries for which there are trend data from 2008, views of Hezbollah have remained unchanged, including in Lebanon. Elsewhere, change in views has been slight or moderate. In Egypt and Pakistan, favorability ratings have deteriorated somewhat. A majority (54%) of Egyptians embraced Hezbollah in 2008; 43% do so in spring 2009. In Pakistan, 24% held a positive view of this Lebanon-based Islamic group in 2008, while 17% do so in the 2009 survey.

The reverse is the case in Nigeria: Nigerians are slightly more positive overall toward Hezbollah in 2009 (35% vs. 29% in 2008). Views of Nigerian Christians remained steady, while Nigerian Muslims are now slightly more positive; half (50%) of Nigerian Muslims held a positive view of Hezbollah in 2008, whereas 59% currently do.

Since 2007, Palestinians have become less willing to support Hezbollah. Fewer Palestinians overall hold positive views of Hezbollah in 2009 (61%) than did in spring of 2007 (76%). However, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have become far less enamored of Hezbollah than have their compatriots in the West Bank. Fully 78% of those in the West Bank and 71% in Gaza favored Hezbollah in 2007, whereas 69% of those in the West Bank and 44% in the Gaza Strip do so now.

Sunni-Shia Tensions

Most Muslims surveyed believe the sectarian tensions that have plagued Iraq in recent years are not limited to that country. Among Muslims in seven of the nine countries where the question was asked, the balance of opinion is that tensions between Sunni and Shia are a growing problem in the Muslim world more generally.

In Lebanon, a country which itself has experienced ongoing sectarian tensions, this opinion is almost universally shared by Muslims: 99% of Sunni Muslims and 91% of Shia say the divide between their communities is a more general problem. Most Palestinian Muslims agree; 73% view the Sunni-Shia sectarian divide as one that reaches beyond Iraq, although, slightly more Gazans (81%) hold this view than Palestinians in the West Bank (70%). Similarly, roughly seven-in-ten (69%) Pakistani Muslims view the Sunni-Shia conflict as extending outside of Iraq.

Majorities of Muslims in Egypt (59%), Jordan (55%) and Turkey (52%) also see this as a problem that reaches beyond Iraq. Fewer hold this view in Indonesia (25%). Israeli Muslims are divided; roughly equal proportions say the Sunni-Shia divide is limited to Iraq (38%) and that it is a more general problem (42%).

In several countries over the last few years, the view that this sectarian conflict is a more general problem in the Muslim world has widened. In 2009, more Muslims in Nigeria (54%) and Turkey (52%) say it is a broader problem than said so in 2008 (Nigeria 38%, Turkey 44%). More Palestinians in the West Bank (70%) and Gaza (81%) also feel the Sunni-Shia divide is a more general problem than did so in 2007 (West Bank 54%, Gaza Strip 66%).

A Struggle Between Modernizers and Fundamentalists

Many Muslims see a struggle in their country between groups that want to modernize the nation and Islamic fundamentalists. In three of the eight countries where this question was asked, more than half say such a struggle is taking place. Overwhelmingly, Muslims who see a struggle tend to side with the modernizers.

The belief that a struggle exists between modernizers and fundamentalists is most widespread in Lebanon. A solid majority (55%) of Lebanese Muslims see a struggle in their country. This view is much more common among Lebanese Sunnis (67%) than Shia (42%). But among both Sunnis and Shia, those who see such a struggle lopsidedly side with modernizers.

The belief that a struggle is occurring is equally widespread in Turkey, where tensions between elements of the country’s secular establishment and the ruling moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) continue. Just over half (54%) believe a clash between moderates and fundamentalists is taking place in Turkey. Most Turks who believe a struggle exists identify with modernizers.

Overall, a slim majority (53%) of Palestinians also feel a struggle exists between those who seek to modernize and a more fundamentalist element. However, more Palestinians in the Hamas-controlled, Gaza Strip (67%) hold this view than do those in the West Bank (47%).

Four-in-ten Pakistani Muslims see a struggle taking place in their country though an equal number do not offer an opinion (38%). Indonesians are divided; four-in-ten (41%) feel a struggle exists while just as many disagree (40%). Similarly, in Nigeria, roughly four-in-ten (37%) say a conflict exists while about half (51%) reject that idea.

Few in Egypt (22%) or Jordan (14%) see a struggle between a more modern and fundamentalist approach. In five of the seven countries for which there is a trend, Muslims are significantly less likely in the 2009 survey to say that a conflict between modernizers and fundamentalists exists than were a year earlier. In spring 2008, just under seven-in-ten Muslims in Turkey (68%) said that there is a struggle between those who want to modernize the nation and Islamic fundamentalists; just over half (54%) took that view in 2009. In 2008 in Egypt, one-third held the opinion that a struggle between modernizers and fundamentalists existed in their country; a year later only 22% now express that view. Smaller but still significant decreases in the percentages saying a struggle exists also occurred in Jordan, Indonesia and Pakistan.

Widespread Support for Educating Boys and Girls

Egalitarian views about education are common in the predominantly Muslim countries surveyed. More than eight-in-ten in Lebanon (96%), Indonesia (93%), the Palestinian territories (85%), Turkey (89%) and Pakistan (87%) say that it is equally important to educate girls as it is to educate boys.

Overall opinion in Nigeria is roughly as egalitarian; (78%) agree that it is just as important to educate girls as it is to educate boys. Still, nearly one-in-five Nigerians (19%) consider educating boys more important. Also, more Nigerian Christians (87%) advocate equal education of the genders than do Nigerian Muslims (68%). In fact, roughly three-in-ten Muslims in Nigeria (29%) consider it more important to educate boys than girls.

About seven-in-ten Egyptians (71%) see education as equally important for boys and girls. While 16% of Egyptians consider it more important to educate boys than girls, a comparable percentage (12%) thinks educating girls is more important.

Likewise, a solid majority in Jordan (65%) say that education is equally important for boys and girls. Still, small minorities of Jordanians favor educating one gender over the other; 19% deem education more important for boys while 15% say educating girls is more important. Israeli opinion is overwhelmingly egalitarian; 93% believe it is as important to educate girls as to educate boys.

Egalitarian views are somewhat more widespread than in 2007 in Pakistan (+13 percentage points), the Palestinian territories (+11 points), and Israel (+9 points). Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are now much more likely to favor equal education for girls and boys than just two years ago (+28 points). Views about education among Palestinians in the West Bank have remained relatively steady; 86% currently believe that it is equally important to educate boys as girls where 82% held this view in 2007.

In Jordan, the opinion that it is more important for boys to be educated is considerably more common among men. Roughly one-quarter of Jordanian men (24%) share that view, compared with 15% of women. In the other countries surveyed in the Muslim world and Israel, gender does not appear to play a role in views of the importance of educating girls and boys.

Across predominantly Muslim nations, there is little enthusiasm for the extremist Islamic organizations Hamas and Hezbollah, although there are pockets of support for both groups, especially in the Middle East.

Four years after its victory in Palestinian parliamentary elections, Hamas receives relatively positive ratings in Jordan (56% favorable) and Egypt (52%). However, Palestinians are more likely to give the group a negative (52%) than a positive (44%) rating. And reservations about Hamas are particularly common in the portion of the Palestinian territories it controls — just 37% in Gaza express a favorable opinion, compared with 47% in the West Bank.

A survey conducted May 18 to June 16, 2009 by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project also finds limited support for the Lebanese Shia organization Hezbollah.¹ While most Palestinians (61%) and about half of Jordanians (51%) have a favorable view of Hezbollah, elsewhere opinions are less positive, including Egypt (43%) and Lebanon (35%). As with many issues in Lebanon, views of Hezbollah are sharply divided along religious lines: nearly all of the country’s Shia Muslims (97%) express a positive opinion of the organization, while only 18% of Christians and 2% of Sunni Muslims feel this way.

Meanwhile, Turks overwhelmingly reject both groups — just 5% give Hamas a positive rating and only 3% say this about Hezbollah. There is also little support among Israel’s Arab population for either Hamas (21% favorable) or Hezbollah (27%). Outside of the Middle East, many in Pakistan, Indonesia, and Nigeria are unable to offer an opinion about these groups.

Lukewarm support for extremist groups among Muslim publics is consistent with other Pew Global Attitudes findings in recent years, which have shown declining public support for extremism and suicide bombing among most Muslim populations. The same surveys have also found decreasing confidence in Osama bin Laden. In addition, a 2009 Pew Global Attitudes survey in Pakistan — a country currently plagued by extremist violence — found growing opposition to both al Qaeda and the Taliban.²

Little Enthusiasm for Most Muslim Leaders

There is limited enthusiasm for most of the Muslim political figures tested on the survey, with the exception of Saudi King Abdullah, who is easily the most popular. In Jordan (92%) and Egypt (83%) for example, large majorities say they have confidence that King Abdullah will do the right thing in world affairs. The king receives quite positive ratings outside the Middle East as well, especially in the largely Muslim Asian nations Pakistan (64%) and Indonesia (61%). However, the Saudi monarch does not receive high marks everywhere — only 8% of Turks voice confidence in him. And overall his ratings are less positive than they were in 2007.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah receives less positive reviews. Only 37% of Lebanese overall express confidence in Nasrallah; however, the country’s Shia community shows almost unanimous confidence in him (97%). He also receives relative high marks in the Palestinian territories, and especially in the West Bank, where 71% say they think he will do the right thing in international affairs.

Confidence in Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has declined since 2007, especially in the neighboring countries of Egypt (67% confidence in 2007; 33% in 2009) and Jordan (53% in 2007; 33% in 2009). His ratings have dropped slightly among Palestinians overall (from 56% in 2007 to 52% in 2009); however, they have declined markedly among Gazans, falling from 69% to 51%.

Even before their disputed elections last year, both Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were generally unpopular among most of the Muslim publics surveyed. Ahmadinejad’s highest ratings are in the Palestinian territories (45% confidence) and Indonesia (43%), although even among these publics fewer than half express a positive view of his leadership. There is no country in which even 40% express confidence in Karzai, and in Pakistan (10%), Turkey (7%) and Lebanon (7%) one-in-ten or fewer hold this view.

As mentioned previously, ratings for al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden have generally declined in recent years, and he receives little support among most Muslim publics. However, about half (51%) of Palestinians express confidence in him and in Nigeria, 54%-majority of the country’s Muslim population say they are confident in bin Laden’s leadership. In Pakistan, where many believe bin Laden is now hiding, only 18% express confidence in him, although 35% do not offer an opinion. Very few Turks (3%) or Lebanese (2%) express support for the terrorist leader.

Across most of the 25 nations included in the spring 2009 Pew Global Attitudes survey, U.S. President Barack Obama received positive reviews, although this was less true in predominantly Muslim countries. Even so, his ratings were consistently higher than those of his predecessor, George W. Bush, and in some cases higher than for the Muslim leaders included on the survey. For example, only 33% in Turkey have confidence in Obama, but this is still more support than Abbas, Nasrallah, Abdullah, Ahmadinejad, or Karzai receive. And the American president is quite popular among some largely Muslim publics, especially in Indonesia, where he spent several years as a child: 71% of Indonesians voice confidence in him. Obama is also popular among Nigerian Muslims (81%), Israeli Arabs (69%), and Lebanese Sunnis (65%).

Sunni-Shia Conflict

There is a widespread perception among Muslims that conflict between Sunnis and Shia is not limited to Iraq’s borders. In nine nations, Muslim respondents were asked whether the tensions between Sunnis and Shia are limited to Iraq or are a growing problem in the Muslim world more generally, and in seven of those nations, a majority of Muslims say it is a broader problem.

This is a rare point of agreement among Muslims in Lebanon, a country that has experienced considerable sectarian conflict for decades. Overall, 95% of Lebanese Muslims Sunni-Shia tensions are a broad problem in the Muslim world, including 99% of Sunnis and 91% of Shia.

Most Pakistani, Egyptian, Jordanian and Nigerian Muslims also see a general problem that is not limited to Iraq. Israel’s Muslim minority community is roughly divided on this question — 42% say it is a more general problem, while 38% feel it is limited to Iraq. Indonesia is the outlier on this question — 25% of Indonesian Muslims say Sunni-Shia tensions are a general problem, while almost half (47%) think it is essentially a problem for Iraq (28% offer no opinion).

Lebanon’s Growing Divide

On several measures, the already large divides between Sunni and Shia in Lebanon are growing even wider. For instance, in 2007 94% of Sunnis and 57% of Shia expressed confidence in Saudi King Abdullah; in 2009, 94% of Sunnis and only 8% of Shia hold this view. A similar example is evident in attitudes toward Hamas. Although it is a predominantly Sunni organization, Hamas has grown from generally popular among Lebanese Shia in 2008 (64% favorable) to almost universally popular in 2009 (91%), while Sunni support for the group has gone from low (9%) to almost nonexistent (1%).

Notably, views of the U.S. have grown more polarized, as the result of a shift of opinion among Lebanese Sunni. Positive attitudes among Sunnis have grown from 62%
in 2008 to 90% in 2009. However, only 2% of Shia Muslims currently express a positive opinion of the U.S., barely an improvement from last year’s 0%.

Also of Note:

• Many Muslims are convinced that there is a struggle in their country between groups who want to modernize the nation and Islamic fundamentalists. More are convinced of the existence of such a struggle in Lebanon (55%), Turkey (54%) and the Palestinian territories (53%) than elsewhere.
• Muslim publics overwhelmingly support educating girls and boys equally. More than eight-in-ten in Lebanon (96%), Israel (93%), Indonesia (93%), Turkey (89%), Pakistan (87%) and the Palestinian territories (85%) say that it is equally important to educate girls and boys.
• In Arab nations, attitudes toward Jews remain extremely negative. More than 90% of Egyptians, Jordanians, Lebanese and Palestinians express unfavorable views toward Jews. Only 35% of Israeli Arabs, however, express a negative opinion.

In the Middle East and elsewhere, Muslim reaction to the Israeli offensive in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip has been swift and angry, with protests in Amman, Beirut, Istanbul, Tehran, Jakarta, and several other capitals. Palestinians in East Jerusalem and in the West Bank, where Hamas rival Fatah dominates, have also demonstrated against Israel, some carrying the green flag of Hamas into the streets. However, before the current conflict in Gaza, Hamas hardly enjoyed universal popularity among Muslims, and among some key Arab publics, its support had been waning.

The 2008 Pew Global Attitudes survey found significant opposition to the organization in several predominantly Muslim countries, not to mention considerable opposition to suicide bombing — a frequent tactic of Hamas in the past — as well as deep reservations about one of Hamas’ chief sponsors, Iran. Still, given the striking antipathy toward Israel throughout much of the Arab and Muslim worlds, if Hamas survives reasonably intact and comes to be viewed as the Palestinians’ primary defender against the Jewish state, its popularity may rise.

Muslim Views of Hamas Mixed

Among the eight countries with sizeable Muslim populations surveyed by the Pew Global Attitudes Project in 2008, Hamas received a positive rating in only one, Jordan, where 55% voiced a favorable view of the organization while 37% expressed an unfavorable opinion. Still, Jordanian attitudes toward Hamas were less positive than in 2007, when 62% gave the group a favorable rating, and 36% a negative one.

Hamas’ image also declined in neighboring Egypt. In 2007, Egyptians were split (49% favorable, 49% unfavorable). By 2008, however, only 42% had a favorable opinion, while 50% held a negative view.

In general, the 2008 survey revealed few differences between men and women on this issue, although Egypt is an interesting exception. Egyptian women were divided over Hamas — 50% expressed a positive view and 47% a negative view. Egyptian men, however, tended to offer a negative evaluation — 35% favorable, 53% unfavorable.

In another Arab public included on the survey, Lebanon, the dividing line is not gender, but religion. Overall, only one-quarter of Lebanese said they view Hamas favorably, unchanged from 2007. But the overall number masks deep and growing divisions among the country’s three major religious groups. Hamas — a largely Sunni organization — received its highest ratings from Lebanese Shia, 64% of whom expressed a positive view of the group. However, just 9% of Lebanese Sunnis expressed a favorable opinion. Moreover, the division between the two Muslim sects grew sharper between 2007 and 2008, with Hamas’ image improving among Shia and declining among Sunnis. Perceptions of Hamas among the country’s Christians have consistently been overwhelmingly negative.

Positive views of Hamas are especially scarce in Turkey, where just 6% expressed a positive opinion, down from 14% in 2007. In the other four countries where the question was asked — all of which are outside the Middle East — the group is less familiar. Large numbers in Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Tanzania are unable to give either a positive or negative assessment.

Palestinian Views of Hamas

Hamas has, of course, enjoyed a degree of popularity among Palestinians in recent years. It won a majority of seats in the January 2006 parliamentary elections, and in Pew’s 2007 survey most Palestinians (62%) had a positive view of the group, while just one-third (33%) gave it a negative rating.¹ However, more recent polling, conducted in the weeks prior to the Israeli incursion, showed Hamas receiving less favorable marks than its rival Fatah, the organization headed by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

A Nov. 20-23, 2008 poll by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center found that 37% of Palestinians would vote for Fatah in legislative elections, compared with just 20% for Hamas. In the Fatah-controlled West Bank, Fatah led Hamas by a 35-18% margin. More interestingly, Fatah also led by a 40-22% margin in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. A poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, conduced December 3-5, 2008, also found that Fatah was more popular than Hamas in both the West Bank and Gaza.

Turning Away from Radicalism

There are other signs that the public opinion environment in the Muslim world had been growing less hospitable to Hamas. In recent years, there has been a steady decline in support for Hamas’ most infamous tactic: suicide bombing. For instance, in the 2002 Pew Global Attitudes survey, 74% of Lebanese Muslims said suicide bombing was often or sometimes justifiable, compared with 32% six years later. Between 2004 and 2008, acceptance of suicide bombing dropped from 41% to 5% among Pakistani Muslims; and between 2005 and 2008, it dropped from 57% to 25% among Muslims in Jordan.

Another sign of disaffection is seen in the mixed reivew — at best — that Iran, widely considered a major benefactor of Hamas, receives in many largely Muslim nations. Most notably, at least half of those surveyed in Lebanon (66%), Jordan (56%), Turkey (56%), and Egypt (54%) expressed a negative opinion of Iran in the 2008 Pew Global Attitudes poll. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad fared even worse — majorities in Egypt (74%), Jordan (71%), Lebanon (67%), and Turkey (60%) said they have little or no confidence in the Iranian leader. So to the extent that Hamas is viewed as a proxy for Iran in a regional power struggle, this may damage the group’s appeal.

Animosity Toward Israel

On the other hand, to the extent that Hamas comes to be seen as the leader of Arab opposition to Israel, this may increase its popularity. Views about Israel, and about Jews more broadly, are extremely negative in many Muslim nations, and are especially so in Arab countries.

Unsurprisingly, Muslim sympathies in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict lean heavily toward the Palestinians. For example, in Pew’s 2007 survey more than 80% in Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and Kuwait said they sympathize more with the Palestinians. The only largely Muslim country included on the survey in which sympathy for Israel reached double figures was the African nation of Mali (13%).

Attitudes toward Jews in general are quite negative throughout much of the Muslim world. Unfavorable views of Jews were almost universal in the three Arab nations surveyed in 2008 — Lebanon (97% unfavorable), Jordan (96%), and Egypt (95%). Opinions were only somewhat less negative in Pakistan (76% unfavorable), Turkey (76%), and Indonesia (66%).

In many ways, Muslim views toward Israel are also linked to perceptions of the United States. The 2007 Pew Global Attitudes poll found that roughly nine-in-ten Jordanians (91%) and Palestinians (90%) felt that American policy favors Israel too much, and more than eight-in-ten felt this way in Lebanon, Egypt, Kuwait, and Morocco.

The same survey found considerable pessimism among Arab publics about the possibility of Israeli and Palestinian coexistence. More than seven-in-ten Egyptians, Jordanians, Palestinians, and Kuwaitis believed that “the rights and needs of the Palestinian people cannot be taken care of as long as the state of Israel exists,” highlighting the fact that, even before the current crisis, optimism on this issue was rare in Arab nations.

Since 2002, the acceptability of suicide bombing in defense of Islam has fallen sharply across Muslim publics. There also have been steep declines in the proportions expressing confidence in Osama bin Laden.

Views on Suicide Bombing and bin Laden

Among the Muslim publics included in this year’s survey, majorities or pluralities in nearly every country say suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilians can never be justified to defend Islam from its enemies. Still, in several countries significant minorities do endorse such tactics.

In Lebanon, 32% of Muslims say that suicide bombing and other attacks on civilians are often (8%) or sometimes (24%) justified in the defense of Islam. More than twice as many Lebanese Shia as Sunnis say such attacks are often or sometimes justified (46% vs. 21%).

By contrast, in four countries, more than seven-in-ten Muslims say suicide violence can never be justified: Turkey (83%), Pakistan (81%), Indonesia (74%) and Tanzania (74%).

Since Pew first asked this question six years ago, the percentage of Muslims saying suicide bombing can often or sometimes be justified has declined significantly in all seven countries where trends from 2002 are available.

Since 2002, decreases of 15 percentage points or more have occurred in five of these seven countries: Lebanon (-42 points), Pakistan (-28), Jordan (-18), Indonesia (-15) and Nigeria (-15). Just since last year, there have been notable declines in Turkey (-13 points), Nigeria (-10) and Pakistan (-4). The only country where support has increased significantly since last year’s Pew poll is Egypt (+5), although the number of Egyptians who believe suicide attacks can often or sometimes be justified remains relatively low at 13%.

There are few differences according to age or gender on this question, although Muslims under age 50 in both Nigeria (31%) and Jordan (24%) are less likely than those 50 and older (43% in Nigeria, 29% in Jordan) to describe this type of violence as often or sometimes justifiable.

Women are more likely than men to support suicide bombing in Lebanon (women 37% often/sometimes justified, men 26%) and Jordan (women 28%, men 22%).

Support for Osama bin Laden has also declined in recent years. For instance, only 2% of Lebanese Muslims currently say they have a lot or some confidence in bin Laden to do the right thing in world affairs, down from 20% in 2003. Similarly, just 3% now voice confidence in the al Qaeda leader in Turkey, down from 15% five years ago.

The most dramatic drop in support for bin Laden has occurred in Jordan – six-in-ten Jordanian Muslims expressed confidence in bin Laden just three years ago, but today only 19% do so.

Disturbingly high numbers of Muslims in Indonesia (37%) and Pakistan (34%) have confidence in the terrorist leader, but in both countries support for bin Laden is considerably lower now than it was five years ago.

The only country where a majority of Muslims view him positively is Nigeria (58% a lot or some confidence). And Nigeria is the only country in which positive views of bin Laden have become more common since 2003.

Mixed Views of Hamas and Hezbollah

A majority in only one country – Jordan – holds a favorable opinion of the radical Palestinian organization Hamas (55%). Elsewhere, opinions are negative or mixed.

In the other Arab nations included in the survey, Hamas does not fair as well. For instance, half of Egyptians express an unfavorable view of the organization.

In Lebanon, upwards of seven-in-ten (72%) have a negative view, although opinions differ greatly between the country’s Shia and Sunni communities, and these differences have only become sharper since 2007. Hamas – a predominantly Sunni organization – is currently viewed favorably by 64% of Shia, a 14 percentage point increase from last year. But among Lebanese Sunnis, Hamas remains overwhelmingly unpopular – 83% have an unfavorable view of the organization, an increase from 76% in 2007. Lebanese Christians overwhelmingly express negative opinions of Hamas (90% unfavorable).

Turks have become more negative towards Hamas since last year. Roughly two-thirds (65%) say they have an unfavorable opinion, compared with 54% in 2007. Only a handful of Turks rate Hamas favorably (6%).

Outside of the Middle East, Hamas is a less salient issue, and large numbers of Muslims in Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Tanzania are unable to offer an opinion about the Palestinian group.

Overall, most Lebanese take a dim view of Hezbollah, the Islamic Shia political and military organization based in Lebanon. A solid majority (65%) of Lebanese say they have an unfavorable view of this organization, but opinions are deeply divided along religious lines. Hezbollah continues to receive tremendous support from Lebanon’s Shia community – a remarkably high 96% hold a favorable view, up from 85% last year. On the other hand, nearly the same percentage of Lebanese Sunnis (95% unfavorable) and Christians (87% unfavorable) express a negative opinion of the movement.

In the other two Arab countries surveyed, slim majorities hold a favorable view of Hezbollah – 54% of Egyptians and 51% of Jordanians express a positive opinion.

In contrast, Turkish public opinion is strongly negative – about three-quarters (76%) express an unfavorable opinion of the organization, with the bulk of these respondents saying they have a very unfavorable opinion (71%).

Once again, in the predominantly Muslim countries in Asia and Africa, substantial percentages – 40% or more – are unable to provide a response.

Among Nigerians, views divide sharply along religious lines – one-half of Nigerian Muslims have a favorable view of Hezbollah, compared with just 9% of Christians.

Widespread Concerns About Extremism

Worries about Islamic extremism are pervasive among nations with sizeable Muslim populations. Majorities in seven of the eight nations where this question was asked are concerned about the rise of Islamic extremism in the world today.

Seven-in-ten or more are concerned in Indonesia, Pakistan, Tanzania and Lebanon. And more than half of Pakistanis and Tanzanians are very concerned. Turkey is the exception – only 37% of Turks say they are concerned.

Similar proportions say they are concerned about Islamic extremism in their countries. Majorities in seven of eight countries are very or somewhat concerned about the rise of extremism in their country, and worries are especially widespread in Lebanon (78%), Pakistan (72%) and Egypt (72%). Once more, Turkey is the exception – only about four-in-ten Turks (41%) are very or somewhat concerned.

The intensity of concern is particularly strong in Pakistan, a country where armed clashes between government forces and militant groups are ongoing. Just over half of Pakistanis (54%) are very concerned about extremism in their country.

Worries about extremism around the world and in the survey countries themselves has mostly remained stable since the last time Pew asked these questions in 2006. However, concerns have risen significantly in two countries: Indonesia and Egypt.

Three-in-four Indonesians currently say they are very or somewhat concerned about Islamic extremism in the world, up from 67% two years ago. Six-in-ten are concerned about extremism in Indonesia itself, a 17 percentage point increase from 2006.

Among Egyptians, 65% are concerned about extremism around the world, an 11 point increase since 2006. More than seven-in-ten (72%) are worried about rising extremism in their country, up from 68% two years ago.

Sunni-Shia Tensions

The sectarian violence in Iraq has been the most high profile conflict between Sunni and Shia Muslims over the last few years, but many believe this conflict is not limited to Iraq. Instead, in six of the eight countries where the question was asked, the balance of opinion is that tensions between Sunni and Shia are a growing problem in the Muslim world more generally.

This opinion is almost universally shared by Lebanese Muslims (93% more general problem). Perhaps indicative of the ever sharper divides between Lebanon’s Muslim communities, nine-in-ten or more among both Shia (94%) and Sunnis (90%) say that these sectarian tensions are a growing problem throughout the Muslim world.

Solid majorities also see this as a problem that reaches beyond Iraq in Pakistan (69%), Egypt (62%), Tanzania (59%), and Jordan (59%). Fewer hold this view in Turkey (44%), Nigeria (38%) and Indonesia (22%).

A Struggle Between Modernizers and Fundamentalists

Many Muslims see a struggle in their country between groups who want to modernize the nation and Islamic fundamentalists. In three of the eight countries where this question was asked, more than half say such a struggle is taking place. Overwhelmingly, Muslims who do see a struggle tend to side with the modernizers. The only clear exception is Jordan, where more identify with fundamentalists.

The belief that a struggle is occurring is most common in Turkey, where tensions between elements of the country’s secular establishment and the AKP, the country’s ruling moderate Islamic party, have been high over the last year. Roughly two-thirds (68%) believe a clash between moderates and fundamentalists is taking place in Turkey.

Nearly six-in-ten (58%) Lebanese Muslims see a struggle in their country, although this perception is much more common among Sunnis (80%) than among Shia (37%). Both Sunnis and Shia, however, tend to side with modernizers.

Most Tanzanian Muslims (56%), as well as pluralities in Indonesia (48%) and Pakistan (46%), see a struggle taking place in their countries. This view is less widespread in Nigeria (38%), Egypt (33%) and Jordan (21%).

In several countries, there have been notable increases in the number of Muslims who see a conflict between modernizers and fundamentalists. In Tanzania, Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan and Jordan, Muslims are now significantly more likely to believe such a conflict is taking place than they were last year.

Ethnocentric attitudes are on the rise in Europe. Growing numbers of people in several major European countries say they have an unfavorable opinion of Jews, and opinions of Muslims also are more negative than they were several years ago.

A spring 2008 survey by the Pew Research Center’s Pew Global Attitudes Project finds 46% of the Spanish rating Jews unfavorably. More than a third of Russians (34%) and Poles (36%) echo this view. Somewhat fewer, but still significant numbers of the Germans (25%) and French (20%) interviewed also express negative opinions of Jews. These percentages are all higher than obtained in comparable Pew surveys taken in recent years. In a number of countries, the increase has been especially notable between 2006 and 2008.

Great Britain stands out as the only European country included in the survey where there has not been a substantial increase in anti-Semitic attitudes. Just 9% of the British rate Jews unfavorably, which is largely unchanged from recent years. And relatively small percentages in both Australia (11%) and the United States (7%) continue to view Jews unfavorably.

Opinions about Muslims in almost all of these countries are considerably more negative than are views of Jews. Fully half of Spanish (52%) and German respondents (50%) rate Muslims unfavorably. Opinions about Muslims are somewhat less negative in Poland (46%) and considerably less negative in France (38%). About one-in-four in Britain and the United States (23% each) also voice unfavorable views of Muslims. Overall, there is a clear relationship between anti-Jewish and anti-Muslim attitudes: publics that view Jews unfavorably also tend to see Muslims in a negative light.

The trend in negative views toward Muslims in Europe has occurred over a longer period of time than growing anti-Jewish sentiment. Most of the upswing took place between 2004 and 2006, and there has even been a slight decrease in some countries since 2006.

Negative attitudes toward Christians in Europe are less common than negative ratings of Muslims or Jews. And views about Christians have remained largely stable in recent years, although anti-Christian sentiments have been on the rise in Spain – about one-in-four Spanish (24%) now rate Christians negatively, up from 10% in 2005. Similarly, in France 17% now hold an unfavorable view of Christians, compared with 9% in 2004.

A notable parallel between anti-Muslim and anti-Jewish opinion in Western Europe is that both sentiments are most prevalent among the same groups of people. Older people and those with less education are more anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim than are younger people or those with more education. Looking at combined data from France, Germany and Spain – the three Western European countries where unfavorable opinions of Jews are most common – people ages 50 and older express more negative views of both Jews and Muslims than do those younger than 50. Similarly, Europeans who have not attended college are consistently more likely than those who have to hold unfavorable opinions of both groups.

There are some political parallels too. Anti-Muslim and anti-Jewish opinions are most prevalent among Europeans on the political right. For example, among respondents from France, Germany and Spain who place themselves on the political right, 56% express a negative view of Muslims, compared with 42% of those on the left and 45% of those in the center. Similarly, 34% of people on the political right have a negative opinion of Jews, compared with 28% of those on the left and 26% of centrists.

These are among the latest findings from the 2008 Pew Global Attitudes survey. The current report focuses on findings related to religion, and several sections are devoted specifically to issues among Muslim publics. The polling was conducted March-April 2008 in 24 countries from regions throughout the world.¹

Widespread Religiosity

In most of the countries included in the survey, religion is considered a central feature of life. However, this is often less true among younger people. In many nations, including the United States, people under age 40 are less likely than others to say religion is very important to them.

And there is also a notable gender gap in many nations regarding religion’s importance. Consistently, women are more likely than men to say religion plays a very important role in their lives. Among the countries on the survey, the largest gender gap is in the United States, where 65% of women rate religion as very important, compared with only 44% of men.

Muslim Views On Terrorism

The decline in support for terrorism observed in Pew Global Attitudes surveys over the last few years continues this year among Muslims in Nigeria, Turkey and Pakistan. Elsewhere, there has been virtually no change, or in the case of Egypt, a slight increase in support for terrorism.

Since 2002, the percentage saying that suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilians are justified to defend Islam from its enemies has declined in most predominantly Muslim countries surveyed. For instance, in 2002 roughly three-in-four Lebanese Muslims (74%) said such attacks could often or sometimes be justified; today, 32% take this view.

Opinions about Osama bin Laden have followed a similar trend. For instance, only three years ago, about six-in-ten (61%) Jordanian Muslims voiced at least some confidence in the al Qaeda leader; today, just 19% express a positive view. In 2003, 20% of Lebanese Muslims and 15% of Turkish Muslims had positive views of bin Laden. Today, seven years after the September 11 attacks, bin Laden’s ratings have plummeted to the low single digits in both countries (Turkey 3%, Lebanon 2%). Still, substantial numbers of Muslims continue to express confidence in bin Laden in Nigeria (58%), Indonesia (37%) and Pakistan (34%).

Conflict in the Muslim World

Most Muslims in the nations surveyed by Pew continue to worry about the rise of Islamic extremism, both at home and abroad. Majorities in Indonesia, Pakistan, Tanzania, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan and Nigeria say they are concerned about extremism in their own country and in other countries around the world.

Many are also concerned about growing tensions between Sunni and Shia Muslims. There is a widespread perception that Sunni-Shia tensions are not limited to Iraq and instead are a broader problem affecting the Muslim world more generally.

Large numbers of Muslims in several countries surveyed also see a struggle taking place within their countries between Islamic fundamentalists and those who want to modernize the nation. In Turkey, in particular, a large and growing majority sees such a conflict taking place, but this view also is common in Lebanon, Tanzania, Indonesia and Pakistan.

Additional Findings

• France stands out as the most secular nation included in the survey. Only one-in-ten in that country consider religion very important in their lives and 60% say they never pray.
• While European views towards Jews have become more negative, the deepest anti-Jewish sentiments exist outside of Europe, especially in predominantly Muslim nations. The percentage of Turks, Egyptians, Jordanians, Lebanese and Pakistanis with favorable opinions of Jews is in the single digits.
• Two pillars of Islam are commonly practiced by the Muslims surveyed: prayer and fasting. Majorities in most of the eight Muslim publics included pray five times a day and fast most days of Ramadan.
• Views of Hamas tend to be negative in Lebanon, Turkey, and Egypt. Jordan is the only predominantly Muslim country surveyed in which a majority express a positive view of the militant Palestinian organization.
• Views of the militant Lebanese Shia organization Hezbollah are overwhelmingly negative in Turkey, while slim majorities in Egypt and Jordan express positive views of Hezbollah. In Lebanon itself, Hezbollah is almost unanimously popular among the country’s Shia community, but is overwhelmingly unpopular among Sunnis and Christians.
• Saudi Arabia receives positive ratings from most of the publics in the predominantly Muslim countries surveyed, although Turkey is an exception; 43% of Turks express an unfavorable view of Saudi Arabia, while just 36% hold a favorable view.