Special to Nikkei Weekly

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s announcement March 15 that Japan will join negotiations to create a Trans-Pacific Partnership with the U.S. and other Pacific Basin nations won early support from the Japanese people, according to snap surveys following his statement. The decision was also welcomed in official circles in Washington, D.C., where the Obama administration has long supported Japan becoming party to the talks.

But the attitude of the American public toward what is, essentially, a free trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. remains unclear. Unlike in Japan, the TPP has received relatively little news coverage in the U.S. It is not a topic of broad public debate. And there have been no major public opinion polls that have asked Americans specifically about the negotiations since Abe’s announcement.

The American political environment surrounding the talks can only be deduced from related economic and public opinion data.

For some American industries, for organized labor and for some trade experts, scars from the U.S.-Japan trade wars of the 1980s and early 1990s remain tender. Thus, the upcoming TPP negotiations may be contentious. Yet, among the general American public, there is support for deeper integration of the two economies through greater trade. So the political context in which these talks will take place is far more supportive than ever before.

A quarter century ago ties between Washington and Tokyo were characterized by public distrust and animosity. Talk of trade wars dominated newspaper headlines. And political rhetoric often verged on “Japan Bashing.”

In 1989, 63% of Americans believed Japan practiced unfair trade. More than half, 53%, wanted to increase tariffs on products imported from Japan. In 1995, 61% of the American public approved of President Bill Clinton’s decision to impose import duties on imports of luxury Japanese cars. And by 1997, 64% still saw Tokyo as being unfair.

And American critics of Japan participating in TPP will point to the ongoing U.S. trade imbalance with Japan, especially in the automotive sector, as reason for Washington not to conclude a TPP deal with Tokyo. The U.S. ran a $76.3 billion merchandise trade deficit with Japan in 2012, up 21% from 2011. And in 2010, the last year for which there is complete data, Japan shipped 1.5 million cars and light trucks to the U.S. Japan imported 14,000 such vehicles from the U.S. And the U.S.-Japan auto trade imbalance accounted for two-thirds of the overall U.S. trade deficit with Japan that year.

Yet, despite such figures and periodic trade tensions, Americans have generally held a favorable opinion of Japan. In 1990, near the high point of the Washington-Tokyo battles over trade in autos, rice and other goods, 63% of Americans nonetheless thought well of Japan, according to a survey by the Times Mirror Corporation. (Although all such opinion is relative, that same year 77% of Americans approved of Germany.) By 2009, 67% of Americans still felt favorably disposed toward Japan, according to the Pew Research Center.

And, a generation after significant anti-Japanese sentiment among the American people, there is significant support for improving trade relations between the U.S. and Japan. According to a 2010 survey, 60% Americans now want to increase trade with Japan, compared with 58% who would like to deepen commercial ties with the European Union and only 45% who want to boost trade with China. And a 2012 poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that two-thirds of the American public put a high priority on building a regional free trade area with the U.S. and East Asian countries.

So why the change? Despite the bilateral trade imbalance, U.S. exports to Japan are at a record high, up 37% from 2009. And a study by Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry estimates that the TPP would boost the U.S. economy by 0.11 percent, with Japan accounting for about 70 percent of that benefit. While this economic lift might appear insignificant, the benefits would be roughly equivalent to the projected payoff for the U.S. from the now moribund Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. This may be why, of the 113 comments received by the U.S. government on the issue of Japan entering the TPP, 100 were supportive, only 8 were opposed, and 5 indifferent.

Another reason may be that China has replaced Japan as America’s principal trade competitor, both in fact and in the minds of the American people. In 1990, Japan accounted for 40.7% of the U.S. merchandise trade deficit. China made up just 10.3%. By 2012, Japan accounted for only 10.5% of the U.S. global imbalance. China was responsible for 43.3%.

It is little wonder then that today 41% of Americans see China as the world’s leading economic power and thus the principal challenger to American economic preeminence. And according to a recent Pew Research survey, 49% of Americans want to be tough with Beijing on economic matters. By comparison, only 6% cite Japan as an economic powerhouse today compared with 46% who thought Tokyo was the top dog in 1990.

A more positive bilateral public disposition is no assurance of success for the TPP negotiations. Washington will want openings of the Japanese rice and auto markets that Tokyo will resist. As the talks become more acrimonious, public opinion on both sides of the Pacific could sour. But clearly these negotiations begin in a public opinion environment that is far more favorable than that which existed a generation ago.

Special to CNN

Tensions are mounting between China and its Asian neighbors, most recently over long-disputed territories in the South China and East China Seas. At the same time, the negative coverage that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton received in state-run Chinese media during her trip to Beijing last month underscored ongoing differences between China and the U.S. on a host of issues. But tensions like these are not just apparent at the diplomatic level or in government propaganda. Now, as China prepares for its once-in-a-decade leadership transition, the Chinese public is increasingly hostile toward rival nations, according to polling by the Pew Global Attitudes Project. This can only complicate Beijing’s relations with its neighbors and global rivals in the years ahead.

In particular, Chinese sentiment about the U.S. has cooled over the last few years. In 2010, 68 percent of Chinese characterized their country’s relationship with the U.S. as one of cooperation, while just 8 percent said it was one of hostility. Now, only 39 percent describe ties in terms of cooperation and 26 percent say they are hostile.

The Chinese were fairly pleased with President Barack Obama’s election, but since he took office his ratings in China have fallen dramatically. Of course, the People’s Republic is not alone in this regard – Obama’s approval has declined at least somewhat since he took office in most countries regularly surveyed by Pew. However, the drop off in China has been especially steep. In 2009, 62 percent of Chinese said they had a lot or some confidence in Obama to do the right thing in world affairs, while just 23 percent had little or no confidence. Today, the Chinese public is almost evenly split – 38 percent express confidence; 41 percent lack confidence.

Read the full commentary at CNN

As China prepares for its once-in-a-decade change of leadership, the Chinese people believe their country faces serious and growing challenges. In particular, the side effects of rapid economic growth, including the gap between rich and poor, rising prices, pollution, and the loss of traditional culture are major concerns, and there are also increasing worries about political corruption. While the Chinese have consistently rated their national and personal economic situations positively over the last few years, they are now grappling with the concerns of a modern, increasingly wealthy society.

The Chinese public also increasingly expresses reservations about relations with the United States. Over the last two years, ratings for the U.S. and President Obama have declined significantly, and the percentage of Chinese who characterize their country’s relationship with the U.S. as one of cooperation has plummeted from 68% to 39%. Still, many Chinese embrace aspects of America’s soft power, including U.S. science and technology and American ideas about democracy.

Inflation remains the top concern of the Chinese public – six-in-ten consider rising prices a very big problem. Meanwhile, half say corrupt officials are a major problem, up from 39% four years ago.

Worries about consumer protection have also increased significantly. After a number of high-profile food safety scandals in recent years, concerns about the safety of food have more than tripled since 2008.

And while China’s economy has grown at a much faster rate than most countries since the onset of the global economic downturn, concerns about economic inequality have also increased. About half now say the gap between rich and poor is a very big problem, and roughly eight-in-ten agree with the view that in China the “rich just get richer while the poor get poorer.”

Moreover, the rapid changes that have transformed their society in recent years have not been welcomed by all Chinese. Most still say they like the pace of modern life, but fewer hold this view today than four years ago. Nearly six-in-ten say their traditional way of life is getting lost and even more think their way of life should be protected against foreign influence.

These are among the key findings from a survey of China conducted by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 3,177 respondents between March 18 and April 15. The sample represents approximately 64% of the adult Chinese population.¹ This poll in China is part of the broader 21-nation spring 2012 Pew Global Attitudes survey.

Despite Success, Many See Problems

While the global financial crisis has taken a serious toll in many nations over the last few years, most Chinese report continued economic progress – indeed, 70% say they are better off financially than they were five years ago. Among the 21 nations polled, Brazil is the only country where the public reports a comparable level of economic advancement. Additionally, a remarkable 92% of Chinese say their standard of living is better than their parents’ at a similar age. (For more on international economic mobility and other economic issues, see “Pervasive Gloom About the World Economy,” released July 12, 2012).

Given this economic mobility and the overall success of economic reforms since the late 1970s, it is not too surprising that free markets are popular. Roughly three-in-four Chinese agree that most people are better off in a free market economy.

However, there is a general consensus in China that the economic gains of recent years have not benefited everyone equally: 81% agree with the statement the “rich just get richer while the poor get poorer,” and 45% completely agree. Roughly half (48%) say the gap between rich and poor is a very serious problem, up from 41% four years ago (fully 87% consider it at least a moderately big problem).

And some Chinese doubt whether simply working hard is enough to guarantee success in today’s China. While 45% agree with the statement “most people can succeed if they are willing to work hard,” one-in-three disagrees. Those who are doing better economically are much more likely to see a link between effort and success – 62% of higher-income Chinese believe most people can be successful if they work hard, compared with 45% of middle- and 44% of lower-income respondents.²

In another sign that many do not see a level playing field in Chinese society, there are growing worries about corruption. Half now say corrupt officials are a very big problem, up 11 percentage points since 2008; and 32% say this about corrupt business people, also up 11 points from four years ago.

Consumer protection is another rising concern. Four years ago, just 12% rated food safety a very big problem; today, it’s 41%. The percentage expressing very serious concerns about the safety of medicine has more than tripled, from 9% in 2008 to 28% today. And more now are very worried about the quality of manufactured goods (13% in 2008; 33% now).

Increasingly, people are also anxious about having a social safety net. Since 2008, the percentage of those rating old age insurance a very big problem has more than doubled (from 13% to 28%), while the percentage who say the same about health care has jumped from 12% to 26%. The environment is also a serious concern to many. A third or more rate air (36%) and water pollution (33%) as very big problems.

In addition, many Chinese are worried about the current state and direction of their culture and traditions. Most (57%) think their way of life is getting lost and 71% want to see their way of life protected from foreign influence. While 59% still say they like the pace of modern life, this is down from 71% four years ago. Wealthier Chinese are more likely to embrace modern life; 73% of those with higher incomes say they like it, compared with just 61% of middle and 54% of lower income Chinese.

Growing Wariness of the U.S.

Over the last two years, Chinese views about their country’s relationship with the U.S. have shifted substantially. In 2010, roughly two-in-three described the U.S.-China relationship as one of cooperation; today, just 39% view it this way. Meanwhile, 26% now say the relationship is one of hostility, up from 8% in the 2010 poll.

Similarly, while 58% had a positive view of the U.S. in 2010, only 43% do so today. President Obama’s ratings have also slipped – currently, 38% express confidence that he will do the right thing in world affairs, down from 52% two years ago.

Nonetheless, many Chinese – especially younger, wealthier, well-educated, and urban Chinese – continue to embrace certain elements of American soft power. In particular, many admire the U.S. for its scientific and technological achievements.

And in a country that remains a one-party state, American-style democracy has a strong appeal. Roughly half (52%) say they like American ideas about democracy; just 29% say they dislike these ideas. About seven-in-ten Chinese in the higher-income category have a positive opinion about American democratic ideals.

Just like opinions regarding the U.S.-China relationship, views about the India-China relationship have cooled over the last two years. In 2010, 53% described relations between the two Asian powers as one of cooperation, compared with 39% now.

Views on the Japan-China relationship are, on balance, negative. Just three-in-ten Chinese say their relationship with Japan is one of cooperation; fully 41% describe it in terms of hostility.

Views of China’s Economic Power

Globally, perceptions of Chinese economic power have been on the rise since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, and today many believe China is the world’s top economy. Across the 21 countries included in the spring 2012 Pew Global Attitudes survey, a median of 41% said China is the economic leader, while 37% named the U.S. (For more on international perceptions of China and the U.S., see “Global Opinion of Obama Slips, International Policies Faulted,” released June 13, 2012).

The Chinese, however, do not believe they have ascended to the top spot. About half (48%) say the U.S. is the world’s leading economy, while just 29% believe it is China. Americans, meanwhile, are divided: 41% think China is the top global economy, while 40% believe the U.S. remains the leader.

After almost a month of Japan making do without nuclear energy, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda may have finally persuaded local communities that it is safe to restart two of the 50 reactors that have been idled in the wake of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Nonetheless, 70% of Japanese say their country should reduce its reliance on nuclear energy, in a poll conducted as the country’s last nuclear power stations went offline. This is a much larger number taking this position than in the weeks following last year’s nuclear meltdown at the quake and tsunami-damaged Fukushima Daiichi power plant.

Increased skepticism about nuclear power is coupled with widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s performance: eight-in-ten say the government has done a poor job dealing with the Fukushima crisis and six-in-ten disapprove of how Tokyo has handled the overall recovery from the earthquake and tsunami.

The intensity of the public’s frustration stands in sharp contrast with widespread hope last spring that Japan might succeed in turning tragedy into triumph. A year ago, 58% of Japanese believed the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami would actually make their country stronger. Today, only 39% share this view, while 47% say the twin disaster has actually weakened their nation.

Overall, the Japanese public is decidedly pessimistic about how things are going in their country. Fully 78% express dissatisfaction with the country’s direction, while an overwhelming 93% describe the current state of the economy as bad. Compared with last year, fewer expect the economic situation to worsen, but the prevailing view is that the economy will stagnate, rather than improve in the months ahead.

These are the principal findings from a survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted by telephone with 700 adults in Japan between March 20 and April 12, 2012. The poll also finds that only 12% of Japanese believe the national government is having a positive influence on the way things are going in the country – a plunge from 50% five years ago. Current prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, fares slightly better: 30% say he is having a positive impact on the country’s situation.

By contrast, 89% characterize the influence of the country’s Self Defense Force as good – up 22 percentage points since the same question was posed five years ago. Meanwhile, few among the Japanese public have praise for the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), which owns the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. An overwhelming 94% say the company is having a negative impact on the way things are going in Japan, and 88% disapprove of TEPCO’s handling of the situation at the Fukushima facility.

Concerns About Nuclear Power

The Japanese public is far more leery of nuclear power than it was in the immediate aftermath of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami that devastated Japan’s northeast coast and critically damaged the Fukushima Daiichi power plant.

A year ago, Japanese were divided over whether the use of nuclear power in Japan should be reduced (44%) or maintained at its current level (46%). Only 8% said reliance on nuclear power should be increased. Since then, the number who believe Japan should reduce its dependence on nuclear energy has surged to 70%, while support for maintaining nuclear power use at current levels has fallen to fewer than half that number (25%). Just 4% of Japanese say the country should expand the use of nuclear power.

Compared with last spring, the public’s fears about radiation exposure from the Fukushima disaster have eased somewhat. Roughly half (52%) now say they are worried that they or someone in their family may have been exposed to radiation, while 47% are unconcerned. In spring 2011, 59% were worried about radiation risks to their families, compared with 40% who were not.

Radiation risks are a much more prominent issue for people who live near the quake zone and the damaged Fukushima nuclear reactor: 62% of residents in these areas express concerns about radiation, compared with 45% of Japanese in other regions of the country.

Worries about radiation exposure also tend to be more pronounced among Japanese with lower incomes (67%); women (61%, compared with 42% of men); older people (62% of those age 60 or over); and those with no more than a high school education (58%, compared to 44% with a college degree).

Although general fears about radiation exposure have subsided somewhat, worries persist about the safety of foods produced near the Fukushima nuclear plant. Fully 76% of Japanese believe produce from the Fukushima area is not safe, while just 19% disagree. Worries about contaminated food are more prevalent among Japanese with at least some university education (84%) than those with a high school education or less (71%).

Frustration With Recovery Efforts

In the spring of 2011, most Japanese seemed confident that despite the destructive force of the March 11^th earthquake and tsunami their country would rally as a nation. Indeed, a majority (58%) predicted the twin disaster would actually make their country stronger. A year later, that sense of resilience has faded. Just 39% now believe Japan has been strengthened by the earthquake and tsunami, compared with 47% who say the disasters have weakened the country and 12% who believe the country has been unaffected.

The public is clearly dissatisfied with how the government has responded to the March 2011 crisis. Six-in-ten say they disapprove of how Tokyo has handled the overall recovery from the earthquake and tsunami, while only 37% voice approval.

Japanese citizens are especially frustrated with the government’s handling of the situation at the Fukushima nuclear plant: 80% disapprove of Tokyo’s response, while just 17% approve. Dissatisfaction with the government’s approach has grown from last spring, when reports first surfaced concerning radiation leaks at Fukushima. Then, a quarter approved of the government’s actions and 69% disapproved.

An overwhelming majority of Japanese (88%) also disapprove of how TEPCO has handled the crisis. Roughly one-in-ten (9%) think TEPCO has handled the situation well. Even among the minority of Japanese who believe the use of nuclear power should not be reduced, 86% disapprove of TEPCO’s response to the Fukushima crisis.

Pervasive Pessimism

Relatively few Japanese are upbeat about their country’s direction. Just one-in-five are satisfied with the way things are going in Japan, while nearly eight-in-ten (78%) are dissatisfied. The degree of dissatisfaction is up slightly from last year (72%), and is notably higher in areas near the quake zone (86%) than in the rest of the country (72%).

Assessments of the country’s direction are not helped by continuing disappointment in Japan’s national economy. Only a handful of Japanese (7%) describe the current economic situation as good, roughly on par with attitudes since 2008. Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority (93%) say the economy is in bad shape.

Last spring, when the country was reeling from the devastation caused by the earthquake and tsunami, 52% of Japanese predicted tougher economic times ahead. Today, fewer are as downbeat (33% say the economic situation will worsen over the coming year), but optimists are still a minority (16%). The prevailing view (49%) is that the economy won’t improve over the next 12 months.

Institutions and Leaders Poorly Rated

The Japanese public is generally negative toward key institutions and leaders within the country, likely reflecting disappointment with quake and tsunami recovery efforts and possibly also frustration with the flow of accurate information about the situation at the Fukushima power plant. Just 12% of Japanese say the national government is having a good influence on the way things are going in the country; 86% say it is having a bad influence. This is a significant shift from 2007, when the public was fairly divided on the issue (50% good influence vs. 44% bad influence).

Notably, supporters of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) are as lackluster in their praise of the government as backers of the opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), with 17% each saying good influence. Among both groups roughly eight-in-ten (83% and 82%, respectively) say the government is having a bad influence, although LDP supporters are more likely to say the government is having a very bad influence (29% vs. 15%). Among Japanese who support other parties, or no party at all, just 8% say the government is having a good influence on the way things are going in the country, compared with 91% who describe the government’s impact as bad (40% very, 51% somewhat).

TEPCO is also judged harshly by the public: only 4% say the company is having a good influence on the way things are going in the country, while 94% say it is having a negative impact.

On balance, fewer see the media – television, radio, newspapers and magazines –exerting a positive (34%) as opposed to negative influence (63%) on Japanese society. This assessment is nearly identical to views in 2007 (33% good vs. 64% bad), but much more negative than a decade ago when the public was evenly split on the issue (48% good vs. 48% bad).

The one institution that shines in the public’s eyes is the nation’s Self Defense Force. Almost nine-in-ten Japanese (89%) say the SDF is having a positive influence on the way things are going in the country; only about one-in-ten (9%) disagree. In 2007 and 2002, smaller majorities saw the SDF having a good influence (67% and 69%, respectively). The higher regard now for the SDF may be lingering positive sentiment about its involvement in earthquake and tsunami relief efforts last spring. At the time, 95% said the SDF had done a good job responding to the twin disaster.

The survey also asked about Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who took office in September 2011. Three-in-ten Japanese say the current head of government is having a positive influence on the way things are going in Japan, while two-thirds believe he is having a negative impact. Views of Noda generally divide along party lines: 48% among supporters of Noda’s DPJ say he is having a good influence, compared with just 28% of LDP backers and 23% of those who either identify with other parties or no party.

In the aftermath of the devastating March 11 earthquake and tsunami that struck the northeast coast of Japan, the Japanese public is resilient.  Indeed, a majority believe that as a result of the disaster, Japan will become a stronger, rather than weaker nation. And while personal pessimism about the future has crept up slightly, on balance the public’s overall sense of personal well being appears little changed by the calamitous events of 2011.

What is clear, however, is that most Japanese foresee a rocky economic road ahead. A 52% majority expect economic conditions to worsen over the next 12 months. In 2010, as the national economy showed signs of recovering from the global recession, only 33% of the Japanese public thought economic conditions would deteriorate in the coming year.

And while hopeful about the long-term future of the country, few Japanese see the current economy as a solid foundation for rebuilding after the March tragedy. Just 10% describe the economy as good, compared with 88% who say the economic situation in the country is bad. These views are virtually identical to last year.

These are the principal findings from a survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted by telephone with 700 adults in Japan between April 8 and April 27, 2011.¹ The poll found that while the immediate brunt of the 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami was concentrated in only a few coastal areas, 41% of Japanese across the country report being affected by the earthquake and tsunami in some way. Roughly a quarter (26%), for instance, say that as a result of the earthquake and tsunami they had trouble obtaining food or clean drinking water, while 18% experienced electrical blackouts. Overall, 13% of Japanese say they lost time at work, while one-in-ten reports physical damage to their homes or property.

The Japanese public applauds how the country’s Self Defense Force has responded to the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, but is highly critical of the how the government and the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) have handled the multiple disasters. More than nine-in-ten (95%) describe the Self Defense Force’s response positively. By contrast, only about 20% say the national government or Prime Minister Naoto Kan have responded well to the crisis. The harshest criticism is reserved for TEPCO, with just 10% saying the power company has done a good job responding to the earthquake and tsunami. A modest majority (54%) give the media favorable marks.

The poll finds that while the Japanese are broadly unhappy with their own government’s handling of the March 11 catastrophe, there is considerable praise for the United States in assisting Japan with the impact of the earthquake and tsunami.

A majority say the U.S. has done a great deal to help with relief efforts in Japan. Far fewer say the United Nations, European Union or China have done a great deal to assist Japan with the aftermath of the disaster. Thanks in part to American relief efforts, favorable opinion of the U.S. is at its highest point in nearly a decade, climbing to 85% positive this spring. The image of the United Nations has also improved in conjunction with earthquake assistance, and China’s image has seen a modest uptick.

One of the biggest questions raised by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami is nuclear safety. About six-in-ten (59%) in Japan are worried that they or someone in their family may have been exposed to radiation from the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. About seven-in-ten (69%) say they disapprove of how the national government has handled the situation at the crippled nuclear facility. Not surprisingly, few Japanese want their country to increase its use of nuclear power. However, opinion is about evenly split as to whether Japan should maintain (46%) or reduce (44%) its current level of reliance on nuclear energy.

Resilient Public

The Japanese public is putting on a brave face in the wake of the historic devastation wrought by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. Fully 58% of the public believes that Japan will become a stronger nation as a result of the twin disasters, while about a third (32%) think the March calamities will weaken the country. This sense of promise is consistent across age, income and other major demographic groups.

Yet, there is also a clear sense that the road ahead will be rocky. A majority (52%) expect the economic situation in the country to worsen over the next 12 months, compared with 31% who say it will remain the same and 17% who believe it will improve. This is a much more bearish appraisal than in 2010, when far more (52%) thought the economy would remain the same, and considerably fewer (33%) foresaw a worsening economic situation.

Adding to the perceived challenge of rebuilding, nearly nine-in-ten (88%) describe the present economy as bad – identical to the number who felt this way in 2010. Just 10% say the economy is in good shape, virtually unchanged from last year (12%).

Similarly, only a quarter say they are satisfied with the country’s current direction, while more than seven-in-ten (72%) say they are dissatisfied. The sense that the country is headed in the wrong direction has been the majority view for nearly a decade.

Impact of the Disasters

Although communities along Japan’s northeast coast bore the brunt of the devastation on March 11, 41% of Japanese from across the country report being affected by the earthquake and tsunami.² Trouble finding food or clean water and electrical blackouts are the difficulties most frequently attributed to the twin disasters. Roughly a quarter (26%) of Japanese say they or a household member have had trouble finding food or clean drinking water as a result of the March calamity, while 18% report experiencing power outages.

Smaller numbers report losing time at work or suffering property damage. A little more than one-in-ten (13%) claim to have lost time at work due to the earthquake and tsunami, while 10% blame the disaster for damage to their home or property.

Overall, just 4% report having to leave their home to go to a safe location, while barely anyone (1%) says they or a household member lost a job due to the earthquake and tsunami.

Personal Pessimism Rises Slightly

When asked to place themselves on a “ladder of life,” where zero represents the worst possible life and 10 the best possible life, 42% of Japanese rate their current lives at least a seven, compared with 45% who describe their life satisfaction as medium and 10% who say they have a low quality of life. These percentages are virtually unchanged from last year.

However, there is a slight uptick in the number of Japanese who anticipate having a lower quality of life in five years. Roughly three-in-ten (31%) are pessimistic today, compared with about a quarter (24%) a year ago. Meanwhile, 29% today are optimistic that their life satisfaction will improve in five years, compared with over a third (36%) who believe it will remain the same. In 2010, the percentages were essentially the same: 32% anticipated life improving, while 38% anticipated no change.

Official Response to the Disaster

The Japanese public is generally critical of the national government’s response to the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. A major exception is the country’s Self Defense Force (SDF), which earns widespread praise for its response to the disasters. More than nine-in-ten (95%) say the SDF has done a good job responding to the crisis, including 62% who say the force has done a very good job. A smaller majority (54%) give Japan’s news organizations, such as television, radio, newspapers and magazines, favorable marks for their handling of the disaster. However, only 10% describe the media’s response as very good.

By contrast, only a minority of Japanese say the national government has responded well to the earthquake and tsunami. Just one-in-five (20%) give the government positive marks. Roughly eight-in-ten (78%) rate the government’s performance as poor, with a third (33%) of Japanese describing the government’s response as very poor.

Even among supporters of the ruling DPJ, only 37% describe the government’s handling of the crisis as good. Among supporters of the opposition LDP, roughly one-in-five (18%) rate the government’s performance positively, while just 15% of those who back other political parties, or no party, applaud how the government has responded to the March 11 disaster.

The public gives Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s handling of the earthquake and tsunami nearly identical marks to those of the government: 18% say he has done a good job responding to the disaster, compared with 79% who rate his efforts as poor. Again, only a minority of DPJ backers (39%) favorably assess Kan’s performance. Among supporters of the LDP, as well as backers of other parties or no party, many fewer (12% and 15%, respectively) say Kan has performed well.

Compared with the government, TEPCO is even more widely criticized for its response to the March 11 disaster, likely reflecting public frustrations with the company’s handling of the crisis at its Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Only about one-in-ten (11%) think TEPCO has done a good job handling the disaster, while 86% say the utility has done a poor job. Fully half of Japanese describe TEPCO’s response to the earthquake and tsunami as very poor.

International Assistance

Overwhelmingly, the Japanese public believes the United States has provided significant assistance to their country since the earthquake and tsunami. Most (57%) say the U.S. has done a great deal to assist their country, while another 32% say it has done a fair amount. Fewer than one-in-ten think the U.S. has not done very much (7%) or has done nothing at all (1%).

Many also say the European Union (66%), United Nations (49%), and China (50%) have helped Japan in this time of crisis, although few say any one of these has provided a great deal of assistance (17%, 15% and 12%, respectively).

The perception of U.S. generosity has led to a significant improvement in America’s overall image. In 2010, 66% of the Japanese polled said they had a favorable opinion of the U.S.; today, 85% express a favorable view – the highest percentage recorded since the Pew Global Attitudes Project began tracking this question in 2002. Among those who say the U.S. has provided a great deal of assistance, 93% express a positive opinion.

Ratings for the UN also have improved. When the Global Attitudes Project last asked about the UN in 2009, 45% of Japanese viewed the organization positively; now, 61% do so.

Although opinions about China remain largely negative, the percentage with a positive view of Japan’s traditional Asian rival has risen from 26% last year to 34% today. About seven-in-ten (71%) Japanese currently say they have a favorable opinion of the EU, essentially unchanged from last year.

Concern About Nuclear Safety

With efforts to address the earthquake and tsunami damage at the Fukushima Daiichi plant still ongoing, a majority of Japanese (59%) are worried that they or some in their family may have been exposed to radiation from the plant. That includes roughly three-in-ten (31%) who say they are very worried about this possibility.

Concerns about radiation exposure are higher among older Japanese, with 72% of those over 60 years of age saying they are concerned, compared with 58% among 40-59 year olds and 46% among 18-39 year olds.

Worries about radiation exposure are also more pronounced among women and those with less education. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of women express concerns about radiation from the Fukushima Daiichi plant, while only 54% of men say they are anxious about this possibility. Meanwhile, 64% of those with a high school degree or less education worry about being exposed to radiation from the damaged nuclear facility, compared with roughly half (48%) of college-educated Japanese.

Japan’s government has come under considerable criticism for its response to the crisis at the Fukushima nuclear plant. A large majority of Japanese (69%) disapprove of the way their government has handled the situation. Negative assessments are especially pronounced among supporters of the opposition LDP and those who support neither the LDP nor the ruling DPJ (71% and 77%, respectively). Meanwhile, DPJ backers are evenly split regarding the national government’s response: 47% approve and 47% disapprove.

Beyond immediate recriminations, the crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi plant has raised questions about the long-term future of nuclear energy in Japan. The Japanese public is divided on the issue. Nearly half (46%) favor maintaining Japan’s reliance on nuclear power at its current levels, while 44% think the use of nuclear power should be reduced. Only 8% believe the country should increase its use of nuclear power.

Support for reducing the use of nuclear energy is somewhat higher among those who are worried about radiation exposure (46%) than among those who are not worried about this possibility (40%). Consistent with their concerns about radiation exposure, women are considerably more in favor of reducing the use of nuclear power than are men (53% vs. 34%). Those with a university education are also more in favor of reducing Japan’s utilization of nuclear power (52%) than are those with up to a high school degree (40%).

With international financial markets in turmoil, it was not surprising that the selection of Taro Aso as the new leader of Japan’s long-time ruling party played out against a backdrop of national apprehensiveness and pessimism. Yet even if international financial markets had not been in turmoil, it would have been surprising if Monday’s selection had been framed by anything other than a backdrop of national apprehensiveness and pessimism.

The country’s most recent prime minister, Yasuo Fukada, resigned after less than a year, driven from office by rock-bottom approval ratings as was his similarly short-termed predecessor, Shinzo Abe. Now the Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled Japan almost continuously since its creation in 1955, is hoping that its next choice of a prime minister will recapture the popularity enjoyed by Junichiro Koizumi, the popular LDP leader widely credited with reinvigorating Japan’s economy after he took office in 2001.

And, indeed, Japan’s economy has performed quite impressively in recent years. While China’s fast growth has captured the headlines, Japan’s people continue to enjoy a world-class standard of living. Its Gross Domestic Product is topped only by that of the United States and while the U.S. runs a mammoth deficit (upward of $700 billion a year) in its account balance with the rest of the world, Japan continues to run a hefty surplus, topped last year only by China and Germany.

Moreover, as the Economist magazine recently observed, while America’s average GDP growth over the last five years outpaced Japan’s (2.9% vs. 2.1%), thanks to its low birth and immigration rates, Japan’s GDP per capita has outpaced that of both the U.S. and Germany. As the Economist notes, “contrary to the popular pessimism about Japan’s economy, it has actually enjoyed the biggest gain in average income among the big three rich economies.”¹

Judging from the findings of the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, however, the country’s relative prosperity has not been reflected in the perceptions of its people. For example, while satisfaction with the direction in which their country is headed has risen from a rock bottom 12% since 2002, fewer than one-in-four (23%) among the Japanese public said they were satisfied with the country’s direction in last spring’s survey. And while dissatisfaction with their country’s direction has risen in some other developed countries, in the 2008 poll only in the U.S. (70%) and France (71%) did levels approach the 74% recorded in Japan.

While views of their own economies had also darkened in other developed countries by last spring (77% of Americans rated the U.S. economic outlook bad, though only 46% of Germans, and only 28% of Australians, were of like mind), Japanese economic pessimism has tended to outpace that in other well-heeled nations. Fully 85% among the Japanese public described their country’s current economic situation as somewhat or very bad; a mere 13% judged it even somewhat good.

To the Japanese, the prospect ahead appears still bleaker. Nearly half (48%) see tougher times in the coming year while a tiny 5% see the likelihood of small economic gains. The number seeing major improvement: zero. Even in chronically gloomy France about one in five (19%) see better times on the horizon. And in China a huge 85%-majority sees further economic gains in the offing.

It may seem unsurprising that countries such as China and India that have experienced unprecedented growth in recent years should anticipate further economic progress. But per capita incomes in these countries still lag very far behind those enjoyed in Japan. So that country’s prevailing pessimism may come into sharpest focus in the Japanese people’s views of their personal economic situation.

Despite their world-beating per capita affluence, a mere 36% among the Japanese public rate their own finances as even “somewhat good,” while a miniscule 1% judge the state of their pocket book as “very good.”

On the “bad” side of the ledger, nearly half (48%) select “somewhat,” while 13% say “very.” Contrast this with the 84% of Indians and 66% of Chinese and Brazilians who, despite their relative impoverishment, nonetheless express at least some degree of satisfaction with their economic lot in life.

On the foreign policy front, however, Japan’s views do not stand out in sharp contrast with those of many other industrialized countries. Asked if they thought of China more as a partner or enemy of Japan, a 55%-majority said neither, while roughly equal numbers chose partner (20%) or enemy (23%). The U.S. public is split along similar lines, with 13% seeing China as more of a partner, 20% opting for more of an enemy and 62% choosing neither. Australians are more likely to view China as a mate (32%) while only 3% see it as a hostile nation, but again the majority (62%) opt for neither.

Still it seems clear that Japanese views of China are hardening as the latter becomes a stronger economic and perhaps even military competitor. In this year’s survey a heavy 84%-majority expressed either a somewhat (50%) or very (34%) negative view of China, while only 13% took a somewhat favorable view and a mere 1% expressed a very favorable judgment. Six years earlier, a 55% majority of Japanese looked kindly upon the Middle Kingdom. Attitudes toward South Korea, while not unmixed, are far more positive on balance, with 57% of Japanese expressing a favorable and 40% an unfavorable view.
Figure

And while a solid majority (58%) among Japanese continues to oppose amending the country’s constitution to allow Japan to declare war and maintain a military, that number has declined from 67% as recently as two years ago.

With the exception of the Chinese, as well as the South Koreans, whose opinion of Japan is mixed (47% favorable vs. 51% unfavorable), Asian publics express positive views of Japan. Fully 77% in Australia and Indonesia have a favorable view, as do six-in-ten Indians. India is also generally liked by its neighbors – majorities in Australia (71%), Indonesia (63%), Japan (60%), and South Korea (52%) hold positive views.

Views of Pakistan and South Korea are more mixed. A solid majority in Japan (60%) and pluralities in China (49%) and South Korea (42%) express negative views of Pakistan, while the Australians are split (45% favorable vs. 41% unfavorable). Only in Indonesia does a majority have a positive view of Pakistan; nearly six-in-ten in that country hold a favorable opinion (58%). South Korea receives positive ratings by majorities in Australia (64%), China (56%), and Japan (57%), and by a plurality in Indonesia (43%). In India and Pakistan, however, more express negative opinions than express positive opinions about South Korea (41% vs. 31% in India; 28% vs. 18% in Pakistan).

How the Rest of the World Views Asia

Opinions of Asian countries are mixed in other parts of the world. Japan and India are generally viewed favorably, while views of Pakistan and South Korea are more mixed. Publics in 15 of the 17 countries surveyed in North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East rate Japan favorably. Only in Jordan is Japan viewed negatively by a majority (53%), while South Africans are evenly split (39% favorable and 39% unfavorable).

The balance of opinion about India is also favorable in much of the world, but publics in Middle Eastern countries largely dislike the Asian nation. Majorities in Egypt and Jordan (55% in each country) hold negative views, as do half of Lebanese and a 42%-plurality in Turkey. Opinion of India is most positive in Europe. Fully three-quarters in Britain express favorable views and about seven-in-ten in Russia (71%) and France (70%) express favorable views of the former British colony.

The British also hold positive views about another country that once belonged to the British Empire – a 56%-majority offers favorable ratings of Pakistan. Egypt is the only other non-Asian country where a majority (51%) shares that view. Opinions of Pakistan are divided in the rest of the Middle East – 49% favorable vs. 45% unfavorable in Jordan, 48% vs. 45% in Lebanon, and 36% vs. 38% in Turkey. Americans are also split; 37% view Pakistan favorably and 39% view it unfavorably. The French, German, and Spanish respondents are the most negative about Pakistan; 69%, 64%, and 58%, respectively, have an unfavorable view.

Japan’s Role in World War II

Overwhelming majorities in China and South Korea believe that Japan has not apologized sufficiently for its military actions during the 1930s and 1940s. This view is expressed virtually unanimously in South Korea (96%) and by about three in four (76%) in China. The Japanese are split – 42% think their country’s apology to its neighbors has been sufficient, while 41% disagree.

Japanese men and women are about equally likely to say their country has not apologized enough for its role in World War II – 40% of women and 42% of men share that view. The percentage of Japanese women who think their country’s apology is not sufficient has declined somewhat since 2006, when 47% thought that was the case. The percentage of Japanese women who think their country has either apologized sufficiently or that no apology is necessary is virtually unchanged, but fewer now offer an opinion on the matter.

While the Japanese are divided about whether their country’s apology for its military past has been adequate, a clear majority opposes changes to Article 9 of the Japanese constitution that would allow the country to establish an official military. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) oppose the changes, including a majority of men (55%) and women (60%), as well as majorities of all age groups. However, opposition to the measure is lower now than it was two years ago, when 67% of Japanese respondents were against changing Article 9.

Five years after the start of the war in Iraq, the image of the United States abroad remains far less positive than it was before the war and at the beginning of the century. However, the latest survey by the Pew Global Attitudes Project finds some encouraging signs for America’s global image for the first time this decade.

Favorable views of the United States have increased modestly since 2007 in 10 of 21 countries where comparative data are available. Perhaps more importantly, the polling finds many people around the world paying close attention to the U.S. presidential election. Moreover – except in countries that are extremely anti-American – those who are paying attention generally believe the next president may well change U.S. foreign policy for the better. In nearly every country surveyed, greater numbers express confidence in presidential candidate Barack Obama than in John McCain.

However, the survey of more than 24,000 people in 24 countries, conducted March 17 to April 21, finds another change in global opinion that could present a formidable challenge to the United States in the future. Around the world, people have a new concern: slumping economic conditions. And they have a familiar complaint – most think the U.S. is having a considerable influence on their economy, and it is largely seen as a negative one.

Majorities in 18 of the 24 countries surveyed describe current economic conditions in their country as bad. Assessments have worsened over the past year among countries surveyed in both this year and 2007. The median percentage rating their national economy as bad rose from 50% in 2007 to 61% in the current poll. The proportion of respondents expressing a positive view of their nation’s economy has declined in 14 of the 22 countries since last year.

The publics of two emerging Asian superpowers – China and India – remain upbeat about national economic conditions, though Indians are less positive than they were a year ago. In contrast, some of the most negative evaluations of economic conditions come from citizens of advanced Western countries. Positive views of the economy have declined sharply over the past year in Great Britain, the United States and Spain. France, where most people were already quite negative about the economy, registered a further decline; in the current survey, just 19% of the French view the national economy as good, down from 30% in 2007.

While American and Chinese publics are at opposite poles with the respect to opinions about their national economies, the new Global Attitudes survey finds growing symmetry in the way that the United States and China are viewed by people all around the world. Overall, favorable ratings of the two countries are fairly comparable as China’s image has slipped a bit and the U.S. image, if anything, has improved slightly. Both the United States and China are widely viewed as taking a unilateralist approach in their relations with other nations, while at the same time both are seen as having considerable influence on other countries. And as global warming is of increasing importance to the citizens of the world, both the U.S, and China are criticized for the way they deal with environmental problems.

Blaming the United States

Large majorities in countries ranging from economically advanced Great Britain and Germany to developing nations such as Egypt and Indonesia say that what happens in the American economy affects economic conditions in their own countries. With only a few exceptions, the American economy is now seen as having a negative impact on national economies, both large and small, in all parts of the world.

The view that the American economy is hurting their national economies is most prevalent among the publics of Western Europe. About seven-in-ten in Great Britain, Germany (72% each) and France (70%) say that the U.S. economy is having a negative impact on economic conditions in their country. India and Nigeria are the only nations surveyed where more than a third of respondents express a positive view of America’s economic influence.

U.S. Favorability Edges Up

Despite these economic concerns, there is little evidence that the overall image of the United States has slipped further as a consequence. In fact, positive views of the United States have risen sharply in Tanzania (by 19 points) and South Korea (12 points), and by smaller but significant margins in Indonesia, China, India and Poland. Overall, opinions of the United States are most positive in South Korea, Poland, India and in the three African countries surveyed this year – Tanzania, Nigeria and South Africa.

However, positive opinions of the United States have declined by 11 points in Japan – a traditional U.S. ally – and in neighboring Mexico (by nine points). The image of the United States also remains overwhelmingly negative in most of the predominantly Muslim countries surveyed, though no more so than in recent years.

Fewer than a quarter of respondents express positive opinions of the United States in Egypt (22%), Jordan (19%), Pakistan (19%) and Turkey (12%). Large majorities in Turkey and Pakistan say they think of the United States as “more of an enemy” rather than as “more of a friend” (70% in Turkey; 60% in Pakistan). In Lebanon, 80% of Shia Muslims consider the United States to be more of an enemy.

As in recent years, favorable views of the United States remain fairly low among the publics of a number of its traditional Western European allies. Solid majorities continue to express unfavorable opinions of the U.S. in France, Germany and Spain. Great Britain is the only country – of four Western European nations surveyed – where a majority (53%) expresses a positive view of the U.S.

Next American President

The survey also finds a widespread belief that U.S. foreign policy “will change for the better” after the inauguration of a new American president next year. Among people who have been following the election, large majorities in France (68%), Spain (67%) and Germany (64%) say that they believe that U.S. foreign policy will improve after the election. This sentiment is also common in the African countries included in the survey – Nigeria (67%), South Africa (66%) and Tanzania (65%).

Yet this belief is far from universal. In Jordan and Egypt, more people who are following the election say they expect new leadership to change U.S. foreign policy for the worse than say they expect a change for the better. Two-thirds of the Japanese (67%) who are following the election say it will not bring about much change in U.S. foreign policy. That is the plurality opinion in Russia and Turkey as well.

There is considerable interest in the presidential campaign in the surveyed countries. A large majority of Japanese say they are following the election very closely (24%) or somewhat closely (59%). As a point of comparison, a third of Americans are following the election very closely, with another 47% saying they are tracking the campaign somewhat closely.

At least half or more of respondents in such countries as Germany, Australia, Great Britain and Jordan are closely following the election. There is less interest in the election in many other countries, including France, where 40% are focusing on the campaign, Mexico (33%) and Spain (25%).

People around the world who have been paying attention to the American election express more confidence in Barack Obama than in John McCain to do the right thing regarding world affairs. McCain is rated lower than Obama in every country surveyed, except for the United States where his rating matches Obama’s, as well as in Jordan and Pakistan where few people have confidence in either candidate.

Obama’s advantage over McCain is overwhelming in the Western European countries surveyed: Fully 84% of the French who have been following the election say they have confidence in Obama to do the right thing regarding world affairs, compared with 33% who say that about McCain. The differences in ratings for Obama and McCain are about as large in Spain and Germany, and are only somewhat narrower in Great Britain.

China Under the Microscope

With global attention focused on China in anticipation of the Beijing Olympics, people around the world express considerable concern about Chinese policies and the impact that China is having on their own countries and lives. China is faulted for a unilateral approach in its dealings with other countries and for not respecting human rights at home. And it is increasingly seen as hurting the global environment at a time when concerns about global warming run very high and have increased in many countries.

The verdict is more mixed with regard to China’s growing economic power and the impact it is having on the well being of other nations. China is a consistent worry to the publics of most Western nations, as well as to the South Koreans, but the publics of other Asian nations, including the Japanese, Indonesians and Pakistanis generally see increasing Chinese economic power as a good thing. And the publics of African nations, in particular Nigeria and Tanzania, are most likely to look favorably upon China’s burgeoning economic impact and influence.

Overall the current survey, which was conducted at a time when China was coming under harsh criticism for its crackdown on political dissent in Tibet, once again finds favorable ratings of China slipping in many countries. Positive views fell significantly in nine of 21 countries in which polls were taken in 2007, as well as in the current survey. Opinions of China tumbled the most in France (47% to 28%) and in Japan (29% to 14%). Favorable ratings of China are highest in Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania and Russia.

Despite growing anti-Chinese sentiment, people in most countries surveyed approve of the decision to hold the Olympics in Beijing. In 14 of 23 countries, clear majorities favor the idea. Dissenters are most prevalent in Japan (55%), France (55%), Germany (47%) and the U.S. (43%).

Advocates of the Olympics decision are most often found in neighboring Asian nations India, Indonesia, Pakistan and South Korea. But many people in African and Latin American nations that have strong economic ties to China, including Nigeria (79%), Argentina (72%), Mexico (67%) and Brazil (76%), are also overwhelmingly enthusiastic about the decision.

The new survey finds that global views of China and the U.S. are parallel in many respects. First, there is parity in the worldwide images of the two nations. The survey found the publics of nine countries holding a more favorable view of the U.S. than China, which was matched by 10 countries where there is a more favorable view of China. (In three countries, publics had an equally favorable view of the U.S. and China.)

In Asia, the U.S. is much better rated than China by the Indians and the South Koreans. But, the Chinese image far outshines the U.S. image among Indonesians, Pakistanis and Russians. In Western Europe, the British, French, and Germans rate both the U.S. and the American people more positively than they do China and the Chinese people.

As with the United States, people around the world are critical of China for not taking into account the interests of other countries in the formulation of international policies. Criticisms of Chinese unilateralism are particularly prevalent in neighboring Japan and South Korea.

Also paralleling opinion of the United States, many people around the world think that China has a direct bearing on how things are going in their country. This view is especially prevalent among Asian publics, as well as those of leading Western powers: Fully 86% of Japanese respondents think that China has a significant amount of influence on the way things are going in their country, a view shared by 76% of the American public. Somewhat smaller majorities in France, Germany and Great Britain concur.

However, large majorities of the publics of two of the three African nations included in the survey are also of the view that China has an impact on their respective countries – 70% of Nigerians and 63% of South Africans believe that China has a bearing on the course of their nations. But, for the most part, African publics, unlike most people in other parts of the world, think that China’s influence is positive. For example, 85% of Nigerians who think China is having an influence on their country believe its impact is a good one, while only 22% of the British hold the same view.

Human Rights Concerns

One continuing advantage for the U.S. over China is that large majorities of people in most countries are critical of China for not respecting the personal freedoms of its people. By contrast, for the most part, the U.S. is seen as mindful of the rights of its citizens. Overwhelming numbers of people in Western countries are critical of China in this regard, rating it as negatively as Iran in terms of respect for human rights. Only in Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania and Indonesia do most people think well of China’s concern for personal freedoms.

Closer to the lives of people all around the world, respondents in most countries say they think that products made in China are less safe than products made in other countries. Majorities of respondents in 18 of 24 countries expressed concerns about Chinese exports.

Yet, for all the criticisms of China with respect to how it operates both at home and abroad, there is little public alarm. China is not seen as an enemy by the vast majority of people in the countries surveyed. Even in Japan where views about China are highly unfavorable, only 23% of respondents describe China as an enemy. Indeed, China is more often thought of as a partner in Africa – majorities in Nigeria (78%), Tanzania (74%) and South Africa (53%) express this view.

Additional Findings

• Support for international trade continues to decline in the United States – 53% of Americans say trade is good for their country, down from 59% last year and 78% in 2002. Support for trade is lower in the U.S. than in any other country included in the survey.
• The survey finds little optimism about the likelihood of success in Iraq. Americans are much less optimistic than they were two years ago – 40% now say efforts to establish a stable democratic Iraqi government will succeed, down from 54% in 2006. However, optimism has increased slightly in both Egypt (32% in 2006, 41% now) and Jordan (34% in 2006, 41% now).
• Majorities or pluralities in 21 of 24 countries want the U.S. and NATO to remove their troops from Afghanistan as soon as possible. However, public opinion in the U.S., Great Britain and Australia – all of which have a military presence in Afghanistan – leans toward keeping troops there until the situation has stabilized.
• In 22 of 24 countries, the U.S. is most commonly identified as the world’s leading economic power. Pluralities in Germany and Australia, however, name China.
• Western European publics are more likely than China’s Asian neighbors to believe China will ultimately replace the United States as the world’s leading superpower. Most Chinese think their country either has already supplanted the U.S. (5%) or will eventually do so (53%).
• Asian publics generally have favorable views of both Japan and India, although neither country fares so well among its traditional rivals. Only 21% of Chinese have a positive opinion of Japan and just 27% of Pakistanis hold a favorable view of India.
• As he nears the end of his second term, U.S. President George W. Bush continues to receive negative reviews from international publics. In 14 of 24 countries, two-thirds or more of respondents express little or no confidence in him to do the right thing in world affairs.
• In the U.S., just 37% voice confidence in Bush, that compares to 78% in May 2003, just months after the beginning of the Iraq war.
• Views of French President Nicholas Sarkozy are mixed, both inside and outside Europe. Among the French themselves, 51% have a lot or some confidence in their president to do the right thing in foreign policy, while 49% have little or no confidence. However, the French hold decidedly positive views of Angela Merkel – 84% have confidence in the German Chancellor. This is similar to 2006, when the French held Merkel in much higher regard than Sarkozy’s predecessor Jacques Chirac.
• Merkel also receives high marks from her fellow Germans – 76% have confidence in her. Of the three European leaders assessed on the survey – Merkel, Sarkozy and Russia’s Vladimir Putin – Merkel generally receives the highest ratings from global publics.
• The U.S. is blamed more often than any other country for harming the world’s environment, although concerns about China’s environmental record are on the rise as well – the view that China is most to blame is up significantly in 13 of 20 countries.

There is a good deal of dislike, if not outright hostility, in how the publics of major Asian countries view their neighbors. The deepest divides exist between traditional rivals – roughly seven-in-ten Japanese express an unfavorable view of China and an equal number of Chinese dislike Japan. Similarly, most Indians have an unfavorable view of Pakistan and most Pakistanis hold negative views about India. But there are other divisions as well. Both the Chinese and Japanese express generally unfavorable views of Pakistan, while the Chinese tend to feel negatively toward India as well.

Anxiety about the growing strength of China’s military is nearly universal in Japan. That concern is shared with others among China’s neighbors – large majorities in both Russia and India see this as a threatening trend. The Chinese, however, have a very different view: 95% say their rising military might is a good thing.

In China, much of the antipathy toward Japan is rooted in history – overwhelmingly, the Chinese believe Japan has yet to atone for its militaristic past. Eight-in-ten Chinese (81%) believe Japan has not apologized sufficiently for its military actions during the 1930s and 1940s.

And departing Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, a controversial Shinto shrine that memorializes Japan’s war dead, including Class A World War II war criminals, are viewed very negatively in China.

The latest survey by the Pew Global Attitudes Project – conducted in China, India, Japan, Pakistan, Russia, and the United States, from March 31-May 14, 2006¹ – finds that the Japanese and Chinese tend to associate a number of negative characteristics with one another, and tend not to see certain positive traits in one another. Both publics consider the other competitive, as well as greedy and arrogant; neither sees the other as honest or generous.

The Chinese and Japanese publics also hold very different views of their common neighbor, North Korea. Nearly all Japanese have a negative opinion of Kim Jong Il’s country, while in China attitudes toward North Korea tend to be favorable. Majorities in both countries have a positive opinion of South Korea, although a significant minority of Japanese sees the country in a negative light.

Other Major Findings

- A solid majority of the Indian public believes China will replace the U.S. as the world’s dominant superpower at some point in the next 50 years. However, only minorities among the Chinese, Japanese, and Russians agree, as do 43% of Americans,

- As Koizumi prepares to step down, he remains quite popular at home; however he is decidedly unpopular in China.

- The Chinese have very positive feelings about hosting the 2008 Summer Olympics, and they overwhelmingly believe the Games will help improve China’s international reputation.

- In China, a strong majority believes most people are better off now, even if some are rich and some are still poor.

About This Report

The report’s detailed findings are presented below. A description of the Pew Global Attitudes Project can be found at the end of the report, along with a summary of the survey’s methodology and complete topline results.

The Rise of China

China’s economy generates much less concern in the region than does its military. Still, half of Indians (50%) consider China’s growing economy a bad thing for their country, up significantly from 36% in 2005. Roughly four-in-ten Russians (39%) have a negative view of China’s economic strength, a figure basically unchanged from last year. Just over a quarter of Japanese (28%) take a negative view – a perhaps surprisingly low percentage, given the overall negativity of Japanese views toward China. Unsurprisingly, the Chinese themselves see their economic growth in a very positive light.

There is no consensus about the future balance of power between the U.S. and China. Asked when, if ever, China will replace the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower, relatively few respondents think such a transition will take place in the next ten years, although a third (32%) of Indians do believe this. If the time frame is extended to the next 20 or next 50 years, however, many more people see China ascending to this role. Indeed, 43% of Americans and 37% of Chinese join 65% of Indians in saying China will replace the U.S. as the world’s dominant power either in the next 10, 20, or 50 years. Japan is the only country in which a majority (59%) says China will never supplant the U.S.

Antipathy Between China and Japan

Few Chinese and Japanese have a positive impression of the other country. Only one-in-five Chinese (21%) have a favorable view of Japan. Meanwhile, 28% of Japanese have a positive opinion of China, down considerably from 2002 when over half (55%) viewed China favorably.

Moreover, the Chinese and Japanese tend to associate negative characteristics with the people of the other country. In particular, both countries consider the other competitive, greedy, and arrogant. The Japanese are especially likely to say the Chinese are nationalistic and selfish, while the Chinese tend to see the Japanese as male-dominated.

On the positive side, majorities in both countries see the other’s citizens as hardworking. And most Chinese see the Japanese as inventive and modern, although far fewer Japanese see the Chinese this way. In both China and Japan, relatively few characterize people from the other country as sophisticated, tolerant, honest, or generous.

Despite the negative views the Chinese and Japanese have about one another, in neither country does a majority see the other as an adversary – about a third of both the Chinese (33%) and Japanese (31%) think of the other country in this way. However, in Japan, 53% consider China a serious problem, and 34% of Chinese say the same about Japan. In both countries, relatively few say the other is not much of a problem (16% in China, 15% in Japan).

When asked which country in the world poses the greatest danger to their country, most Chinese (58%) say the U.S., while 22% name Japan. The Japanese are roughly divided between those who consider China the biggest threat (39%) and those who feel that North Korea (35%) presents the greatest danger to their country. Nearly one-in-five (18%) Japanese think the U.S. poses the greatest threat to Japan.

Rating Koizumi and Hu

Outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi remains relatively popular at home, as 61% of Japanese have a lot or some confidence in him to do the right thing in world affairs. In China, however, Koizumi receives low marks – 58% say they have either not too much or no confidence in the Japanese leader. The Japanese reciprocate by giving China’s leader an even more negative rating – 71% say they have either not too much or no confidence in Chinese President Hu Jintao.

Elsewhere, 48% of Indonesians have a lot or some confidence in Koizumi, compared with only 26% who have not too much or no confidence in the Japanese leader. They are more divided over Hu: 37% say they have at least some confidence, while 33% have not too much or none.

Indians are divided between those who generally have confidence in Koizumi (30%) and those who do not (30%). Their views about Hu are more negative, with 37% saying they have little or no confidence and 24% voicing at least some confidence in the Chinese leader.

The Legacy of World War II

The belief that Japan has not sufficiently apologized for its military actions in the 1930s and 1940s is widely held in China, but nearly half of the Japanese public also thinks their country has not atoned for World War II. The opinion that Japan’s apology has not been adequate is particularly common among Japanese women (47%) and less common among Japanese age 65 and over (33%).

An ongoing flashpoint for tensions between the two Asian powers has been Prime Minister Koizumi’s regular visits to the Yasukuni Shrine. Chinese opposition to these visits is overwhelming (78% oppose), while the Japanese are divided – 52% support the visits and 45% oppose them.

In Japan, opinions about the Prime Minister’s shrine visits are strongly correlated with how people feel about Koizumi in general: 66% of those who have a lot or some confidence in him support his trips to Yasukuni, compared with only 30% of those who have little or no confidence in him.

To many observers, the shrine visits call to mind Japan’s militaristic past, but the Japanese public shows no signs of abandoning the country’s post-WWII pacifism. Two-thirds (67%) oppose changing Article 9 of the Japanese constitution, written in 1947, which prevents the country from using warfare as an instrument of foreign policy, and at least in theory, prohibits the establishment of an official military.²

Culture and the Economy

Both the Japanese and Chinese are extremely proud of their distinctive cultures. Large and growing majorities in both countries agree with the statement “Our people are not perfect, but our culture is superior to others.” In Japan, 83% agree with this sentiment, up from 73% in 2002. Three-in-four Chinese (75%) say they agree, up from 66% four years ago.³

There is also a strong sense in both countries that their cultures must be protected against outside influences. In Japan, 78% agree with the statement “Our way of life needs to be protected against foreign influence,” a significant increase from four years ago, when 63% felt this way. Nearly seven-in-ten (69%) Chinese agree with this statement, up slightly from 64% in 2002.⁴

While they may have reservations about the impact of globalization on their culture, the Chinese overwhelmingly embrace the free market reforms that have transformed their country in recent years, even if those reforms have created economic disparities. Fully 77% agree that “Most people have a better life now, even though some are rich and some are still poor.”

Differing Views About Korea

With near unanimity, the Japanese public takes a dim view of North Korea – 97% have a negative opinion of their communist neighbor across the Sea of Japan. In China, however, about half of the public (51%) has a positive view of North Korea and just 31% have an unfavorable view. The Japanese also feel much more threatened by Kim Jong Il’s regime than do the Chinese – 46% of Japanese consider the North Korean government a great danger to stability in Asia and world peace, compared with only 11% in China.⁵South Korea also receives more favorable marks in China than in Japan. Fully 64% of Chinese have a favorable view of South Korea, while only 18% have a negative view. Meanwhile, most (56%) Japanese also have a positive view of South Korea, but a significant minority (43%) sees the country negatively.

Japan and China also differ over the likelihood of Korean unification. The vast majority of Japanese (71%) say North and South Korea will not be unified in the near future, while 25% think they will. In China, a plurality (39%) say the two Koreas will be unified sometime soon, while 26% say this will not take place, and roughly one-in-three (35%) are unable to offer an opinion.

Olympic Fever in China

The Chinese public is enthusiastic about hosting the 2008 Summer Olympics. Almost unanimously, they believe the Olympics will be a good thing for China (97% good thing, 1% bad thing). And more than nine-in-ten (93%) say the Olympics will help China’s image around the world, while 1% believe the international spotlight will hurt their country’s image, and 3% say it will have no impact.

Of course, the Olympics are already receiving a great deal of attention in China, but a plurality (43%) of Chinese say that it is the right amount of attention. Another 21% say not enough attention is being devoted to the Olympics, while one-quarter (25%) think there is too much focus on the 2008 Games.

U.S.-India Relations

Diplomatic relations between the U.S. and India have grown closer over the last few years, as evidenced by President Bush’s trip to India earlier this year, as well as the recent nuclear agreement between the two countries.⁶ And these growing ties are reflected in Indian public opinion: 70% of Indians believe relations between their country and the U.S. have improved in recent years, and those who think relations have improved overwhelmingly consider this a good thing.

Meanwhile, four-in-ten (43%) Pakistanis say U.S.-India relations have gotten better, and they are divided over whether this is a positive development. Only 16% of Pakistanis think relations between the U.S. and neighboring India have not improved; 42% are unable to offer an opinion.

Most Indians (62%) have heard about the nuclear agreement between the U.S. and their country, while only 25% of Pakistanis are aware of this. In India, three-quarters (75%) of those who have heard of the nuclear deal approve of it, while in Pakistan the reverse is true – roughly three-quarters (73%) of those who are aware of the deal oppose it.

U.S.-Pakistani Relations

There is no consensus in Pakistan about the direction of U.S.-Pakistani relations – roughly half (49%) say relations have improved in recent years, while 20% believe they have not improved and 30% offer no opinion. The overwhelming majority of those who believe relations have grown stronger believe this is a positive development.

Indians are divided over whether U.S.-Pakistani relations have strengthened in recent years – 40% say they have, 41% believe they have not, and 19% are not sure. Those who think relations have improved tend to consider this a positive trend.

And there is widespread agreement on this question across Japanese society. Women and men, young and old, the well-educated and the less-educated all support the idea of a female heading the royal family.

However, now that a prince (he has not been given a name yet) has been born, most experts believe the debate over reforming the succession law is probably over. Instead of becoming Japan’s first Empress since the eighteenth century, young Aiko will in all likelihood remain a Princess.