Current Leadership Gets High Marks

Two-thirds have a favorable view of Ennahda leaders PM Hamadi Jebali and Rached Ghannouchi, making them the most popular politicians polled in Tunisia.⁴ Ettakatol party leader Mustapha Ben Jaafar and independent Beji Caid Essebsi, interim prime minister from February to December, 2011, are also popular, drawing majority support from Tunisians (58% and 56%, respectively).

Maya Jribi, leader of the centrist Republican Party is less popular, with only a third of Tunisians viewing her favorably, 39% expressing an unfavorable view and 28% offering no opinion.⁵

Hachmi Hamdi, a journalist and the leader of Aridha Chaabia (i.e. Popular Petition Party), is the least-popular politician tested. Only 26% see him favorably, while over half (54%) have an unfavorable view of the politician who many believe has close ties to ousted former President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.

Positive ratings of these politicians are related to views of democracy. Tunisians who favor democracy over a strong leader give the scholar-politician Ghannouchi a 73% positive rating, while only 58% of those who favor a strong leader agree. On the other hand, 64% of Tunisians who prefer a strong leader have a favorable view of former Prime Minister Essebsi, while roughly half (52%) of those who choose democracy say the same.

Coalition Partners Seen Favorably

The ruling moderate Islamist party Ennahda receives strong support from the Tunisian people. Nearly two-thirds (65%) have a favorable view of the Assembly’s leading party, while only three-in-ten have an unfavorable view.

Ennahda’s more secular coalition partners, Congress Party for the Republic (CPR) and Ettakatol (FDTL), garner notably less support – 48% and 44% of Tunisians have favorable views of these parties, respectively. However, more educated Tunisians have a sunnier view. For example, 57% of Tunisians with a college degree have a favorable view of Ettakatol, while only 38% with primary schooling or less feel the same.

Tunisians have more negative views of other major parties in the assembly. The Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), which recently merged with other centrist parties to form the Republican Party, is seen favorably by only 31% of Tunisians and unfavorably by 45%.

Meanwhile, majorities have a negative view of Aridha Chaabia, a populist leaning party, and the Tunisian Workers Communist Party (PCOT). Only about one-in-five Tunisians have a favorable view of either Aridha Chaabia (23%) or PCOT (17%).

Military Gets Exceptional Ratings

The military is far and away the most popular of the leading institutions tested in Tunisia, with 97% saying it is a good influence on the way things are going and almost three-quarters (72%) saying it is a very good influence. Majorities also see the police and media positively (69% and 63% respectively).

On balance, Tunisians say the court system (53%) and religious leaders (50%) are a good influence on the country, but opinions about the Constituent Assembly (NCA), which is charged with writing Tunisia’s new constitution, are more divided. An almost equal number of Tunisians say the Assembly is a positive influence (45%) as say it is negative (47%). Meanwhile, trade unions are seen negatively – only 32% say they are a good influence on the country and half say they are a bad influence.

Generally, lower income and less educated Tunisians have a higher opinion of the police, the media, the court system and religious leaders than their better educated and wealthier compatriots. For example, nearly seven-in-ten (69%) Tunisians with a primary education or less think the media is a good influence on the way things are going, while only half with a college degree agree. And while two-thirds of low-income Tunisians see the media positively, only 52% of high-income earners agree.⁶

In addition, views of the Assembly are shaped by religiosity and commitment to democracy. Roughly half (49%) of Tunisian Muslims who pray five times per day have a favorable view of the Assembly, but only 37% who pray less than that agree. And half of Tunisians who prefer democracy to a strong leader say the Assembly is a good influence, while only 38% of those who prefer a strong leader say the same.

Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry are also popular with more than half of Pakistanis, while former President Pervez Musharraf receives much lower ratings.⁴ Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar is generally unknown.

Despite a number of high-profile conflicts over the past year between the elected government, the military and the courts, Pakistanis’ opinions about these national institutions have remained relatively stable. The military and the court system continue to be seen as having a positive influence on the country, while the government receives overwhelmingly negative reviews. Other positive influences are the media and religious leaders, while the police have a dismal image.

Khan and Sharif Get Positive Reviews

Among the top political rivals included in the survey, the two major opposition leaders, Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif, are still the most popular. Seven-in-ten give Khan positive reviews. Favorable ratings of the PTI leader have increased by 18 percentage points over the past two years. While Khan is popular among all age groups, Pakistanis age 18-29 (76%) are more favorable than those age 50 and older (63%).

As Khan has become increasingly popular, attitudes also appear to have shifted in favor of his political party. Just three years ago, less than 1% of Pakistanis identified with the PTI while 30% named the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and 25% the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). Today, 14% identify with the PTI, the same percentage that names the PPP and only slightly less than the 19% that now identify with the PML-N. Young people are more likely to align with the PTI – 17% of 18-29 year olds compared with 8% of those age 50 or older.

Sharif, the leader of PML-N, is well-liked by 62% of Pakistanis. While still popular, Sharif’s reviews have slipped somewhat since 2008.

President Asif Ali Zardari, leader of the ruling PPP, continues to be very unpopular. Just 14% give him positive reviews, and more than eight-in-ten are negative. Zardari’s ratings have always been lower than Sharif’s, even in 2008, when Zardari ascended to office. While more than half (54%) of PPP supporters are favorable toward Zadari, a substantial minority is unfavorable (45%).

Former Prime Minister Gilani is viewed favorably by only 36% of Pakistanis. Gilani’s ratings dropped considerably in 2011, particularly after the U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden.

Other Political Leaders

General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the current Chief of Army Staff, continues to be fairly popular.

More than half (54%) of Pakistanis give him positive reviews, while the remainder are either unfavorable (26%) or unfamiliar (21%) with the army chief.

Similarly, Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry receives positive ratings from roughly half of the Pakistani public. About a quarter feel negatively toward him. Ratings of both Kayani and Chaudhry are unchanged since last year, but have slipped since 2010.

Pervez Musharraf, the former president who is under investigation for alleged involvement in the 2007 assassination of Benazir Bhutto, receives negative ratings. More than half are unfavorable, while roughly four-in-ten are favorable.

Attitudes toward Hina Ribbani Khar, the first woman to hold the position of Foreign Minister, are on balance negative. However, fully 43% of Pakistanis are unfamiliar with her.

Rating Institutions

The military remains the most highly rated institution in Pakistan – 77% say it has a good influence on the country, nearly the same percentage (79%) as last year. However, the military’s ratings have slipped somewhat from a high of 86% in 2009.

Large majorities also rate the influence of the media (68%) and religious leaders (66%) as good. In the past year, however, positive reviews of the media have declined eight percentage points.

Roughly six-in-ten give the court system high marks. The courts’ ratings have been relatively constant over the years, except for a dip in positive reviews in 2011.

As has been true in past surveys, few (24%) say the police are a good influence. Ratings of the national government are also very low – just 24% of Pakistanis believe it plays a positive role in the country.

President Zardari receives even more negative reviews. Only 12% believe he has a good influence, while 84% say it is bad. Pakistanis who identify with Zardari’s party, PPP, are more likely to give him high marks, though they are still divided – 44% say his influence is good, 48% say it is bad. Attitudes about Zardari are particularly negative in Punjab (96% bad influence) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (95%).

As Felipe Calderón’s term as Mexico’s president draws to a close, Mexicans continue to strongly back his policy of deploying the military to combat the country’s powerful drug cartels. Eight-in-ten say this is the right course, a level of support that has remained remarkably constant since the Pew Global Attitudes Project first asked the question in 2009.

Support for Calderón’s strategy continues despite limited confidence that the government is winning the drug war, and widespread concerns about its costs. Just 47% believe progress is being made against drug traffickers, virtually identical to the 45% who held this opinion in 2011. Three-in-ten today say the government is actually losing ground against the cartels, while 19% see no change in the stand-off between the authorities and crime syndicates.

At the same time, the public is uneasy about the moral cost of the drug war: 74% say human rights violations by the military and police are a very big problem. But concern about rights abuses coexist with continued worries about drug-related violence and crime – both of which strong majorities describe as pressing issues in Mexico.

President Calderón himself remains popular. A 58%-majority has a favorable opinion of Mexico’s current leader. Although down from a high of 68% in 2009, this rating nonetheless puts him on par with the 56% who have a positive view of the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s (PRI’s) Enrique Peña Nieto, whose ratings clearly topped those of his opponents when the poll was conducted between March 20 and April 2 of this year.

Whether Peña Nieto or any of the other presidential candidates have a solution to Mexico’s drug problems is an open question for the Mexican public. When asked which political party could do a better job of dealing with organized crime and drug traffickers, about equal numbers name Calderón’s National Action Party (PAN) (28%) and Peña Nieto’s PRI (25%), while only 13% point to the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Fully 23% volunteer that none of the parties is particularly capable of dealing with this critical issue.

These are the principal findings from the latest survey in Mexico by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Conducted face-to-face with 1,200 adults from across the country, the poll also finds that most Mexicans (61%) blame both the United States and their own country for the continued drug violence within their borders. While solid majorities would welcome U.S. assistance in combating the cartels if the aid came in the form of training, equipment or intelligence support, only a third would approve deploying U.S. troops on Mexican soil.

Overall, a majority (56%) of Mexicans have a favorable opinion of the United States, with about the same number (53%) convinced that Mexicans who migrate to the U.S. have a better life. Despite this perception, most Mexicans have no interest in migrating north across the border, although the percentage who say they would move to the U.S. if they had the means and opportunity has remained fairly steady since 2009.

Army Backed in Drug War

More than five years after President Calderón first ordered troops to take part in controlling drug-related violence, the public remains firmly behind the use of military units to combat drug cartels. Fully eight-in-ten say they support the use of the Mexican army in the drug war, little changed from opinion over the past several years.

Supporters of both the PAN (88%) and the PRI (84%) strongly endorse Calderón’s use of the military. Backers of the PRD are more skeptical, yet 66% still approve of the approach.

Support for Calderón’s anti-cartel strategy is widespread even though only 47% of Mexicans believe the government is making progress against the drug traffickers. Three-in-ten actually think the authorities are losing ground, while 19% essentially see a stalemate, with neither side gaining. This assessment of the drug war is virtually identical to views expressed last year.

Perhaps not surprisingly, backers of the ruling PAN are more enthusiastic about the government’s campaign against drug traffickers: 62% of them believe the authorities are making progress, compared with just 45% of PRI and 34% of PRD supporters.

When asked who is to blame for the drug violence in their country – Mexico or the United States – a majority of Mexicans (61%) say both countries bear responsibility. About one-in-five (22%) says the U.S. is mostly to blame, while 14% point to Mexico. The number of Mexicans blaming both countries is up 10 percentage points compared with 2009, when the question was first asked.

In order to combat the drug cartels, three-quarters of Mexicans would support the U.S. training Mexican police and military personnel. About six-in-ten (61%) would also approve of the U.S. providing money and weapons to the country’s police and military. However, there is much less enthusiasm for deploying U.S. troops within Mexico’s borders. Only a third would welcome such a move, while a 59% majority would oppose it.

Overall, attitudes toward U.S. assistance in the drug war are little changed from last year, although the percentage who would back the deployment of U.S. troops has fallen slightly, from 38% in 2011 to 33% today.

Support for U.S. assistance in the drug war tends to be higher among those who see the government succeeding, rather than failing, in its fight against the cartels. For example, 85% of Mexicans who see progress in the drug war back U.S. training of police and military personnel, compared with 68% among those who think the government is losing ground or stymied. Similarly, those who see success in the drug war are more like than those who do not to approve of the U.S. providing money and weapons (71% vs. 54%). Even on the issue of deploying U.S. troops, Mexicans who see progress against the cartels are much more supportive of such a measure than those who believe the government is not succeeding in the drug war (47% vs. 22%).

Negative Ratings for Country and Economy

Mexicans remain unhappy with their country’s direction, although the national mood has improved somewhat over the past year. Currently, 63% say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in Mexico – an improvement from 2011, when 76% were dissatisfied.

Similarly, while 62% describe the country’s economy as bad, this is a slight improvement from last year’s 68%, and is significantly lower than the 75% registered in 2010.

Regardless of these negative assessments, Mexicans are generally optimistic about the future – 51% say the economy will improve over the next 12 months. About a third (32%) believe things will stay the same and just 16% think the economy will worsen. These attitudes are virtually unchanged since last year.

Across all of these measures, Mexicans with higher incomes and better education are more likely to have a positive view of current conditions and to be optimistic about the country’s economic future. For example, almost half of higher-income Mexicans (46%) say the economy is good compared with just 23% of those with lower incomes.¹ Similarly, 43% of Mexicans with a post-secondary education rate the economy positively versus 25% of those with a primary education or less.

Crime and Drug Violence Top Concerns

Issues related to the ongoing drug war top the Mexican public’s list of concerns. Three-in-four say cartel-related violence is a very big problem for the country, while a roughly equal number say the same about human rights violations by the military and police. And 73% name crime as a very big problem.

Slightly smaller majorities point to corrupt political leaders, illegal drugs, and the economy as very big problems.

Roughly six-in-ten believe terrorism (62%) and pollution (58%) are very big problems, while only about half think people leaving Mexico for jobs or the poor quality of schools are top concerns.

Despite being relatively content with the overall situation in the country, Mexicans with higher incomes are more likely than others to see their country beset by problems. Specifically, wealthier Mexicans are at least 10 percentage points more likely than those with lower incomes to rate schools (+20), economic problems (+14), cartel-related violence (+10), illegal drugs (+10), human rights violations (+10) and crime (+10) as very big problems.

Given broad public concern about crime, it is perhaps unsurprising that more than half (56%) of Mexicans say they are afraid to walk alone at night within a kilometer of their home. This sentiment has increased slightly since 2007 (50%). Women (61%) are more likely to be afraid, though a sizeable percentage of men (51%) also express unease.

Calderón and Government Get Positive Marks

Felipe Calderón remains popular as he concludes his final months as president, with majorities expressing a favorable view of him personally and describing his influence on the country as positive. Ratings for the national government are also high, with roughly two-thirds (65%) saying it is having a good influence on the country’s direction.

Assessments of the national government’s impact have improved 11 percentage points since last spring, when 54% said it was having a good influence. Views of the government have particularly improved among middle-income Mexicans (+25 percentage points) and those living in the Mexico City area (+22).

Meanwhile, opinion of Calderón has slipped compared with the high marks he received in 2009. At that time, roughly two-thirds viewed him favorably (68%) compared to 58% in the latest survey, and three-quarters in 2009 thought he was having a good influence on the country compared to 57% now.

Calderón is especially trusted among people who say the Mexican government is making progress in the drug war (72% rate him a good influence) but less so among those who say the government is not making progress or losing ground (46%). Meanwhile, two-thirds of Mexicans living in the North and South regions say he is a good influence, but only about half from the Central and Mexico City areas say the same (53% and 47%, respectively).

Military, Media Viewed Favorably

In addition to the national government, the military is also seen in a favorable light, with nearly three-in-four (73%) saying it is having a good influence on the way things are going in the country. This represents a rebound from 2011, when 62% said the military was having a positive impact.

The media is also well-regarded: six-in-ten say television, radio, newspapers, and magazines are having a good influence on the country’s direction. Opinions of the media are unchanged from last year.

Views of the court system and police are not as positive. Less than half of Mexicans see the courts (44%) and the police (38%) as having a good influence on the way things are going in the country. A year ago, opinions of the courts and police were even more negative, with only about three-in-ten giving either institution a positive rating.

Views of Presidential Candidates

Of the three major presidential candidates, Mexicans are most positive about the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto. A 56%-majority has a favorable opinion of Peña Nieto, compared with 38% who see him unfavorably. The PAN’s Josefina Vazquez Mota and the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador are less popular, with only about a third expressing a favorable view of either candidate (36% and 34%, respectively). More than half express unfavorable views of López Obrador (60%) and Vazquez Mota (54%).

While Peña Nieto is broadly popular across Mexico, views of Vazquez Mota and López Obrador vary by region. Specifically, Vazquez Mota is seen more favorably in the North (47% favorable), while López Obrador has more support among Mexicans in the Mexico City region and the South (46% and 39% favorable respectively).

No Party Stands Out on Key Problems

The public is divided when asked which party could do a better job handling some of the most pressing issues facing Mexico. On unemployment, organized crime/drug traffickers, and corruption, the three main parties come out looking pretty much the same in the eyes of most Mexicans. And confidence is generally low across the board: 30% or fewer think any of the parties is better than the others on these issues.

Generally, those on the right of the ideological spectrum express greater confidence in the ability of both the PRI and PAN to deal with these major problems, while those on the left are inclined to trust the PRD.

U.S. Image Still Positive

A 56%-majority of Mexicans say they have a positive opinion of the U.S., while just 34% rate their northern neighbor unfavorably. America’s image has improved since the passage in 2010 of the highly publicized Arizona immigration law, but has yet to return to levels seen before the law’s enactment.

In 2010, the Arizona law had a measurable impact on opinion of the United States: prior to the law’s passage 62% of those interviewed expressed a favorable view of the U.S., compared with just 44% of those interviewed after the measure was enacted.

Today, younger Mexicans and those with higher education are more likely to be favorable toward the U.S. For example, 60% of 18-29 year-olds hold a positive view of the U.S., while just half of those age 50 and older say the same. Similarly, 66% of those with a post-secondary education are favorable versus just 48% of those with a primary education or less.

Better Life in the U.S.

More than half the public (53%) believe that Mexicans who move to the U.S. have a better life there. Just 14% say they have a worse life, while 28% believe life in the U.S. is neither better nor worse. Attitudes on this topic have shifted since last year, when there was a dip in the percentage who said life is better in the U.S.

Even though many believe life is better for those who emigrate to the U.S., most Mexicans (61%) say they would not move to the U.S., even if they had the means and opportunity to do so. Among the substantial minority who would move, half say they would emigrate without authorization (19% of the total population). These attitudes are unchanged since last year.

The young and highly educated are more likely to want to go to the U.S. Among 18-29 year-olds, 54% would like to move north, while just 37% of 30-49 year-olds and 25% of those age 50 and older say the same. Mexicans with a post-secondary education are 11 percentage points more likely to want to emigrate than those with the lowest level of education.

A sizeable minority of Mexicans know people who have returned to Mexico from the U.S., either for economic reasons or through deportation. Three-in-ten are personally familiar with someone who came back from the U.S. because they could not find a job. This percentage is down 10 points since 2009, during the depth of the U.S. recession. Similarly, 32% of Mexicans say they know someone who has been deported or detained by the U.S. government in the last 12 months.

By Richard Wike, Associate Director, Pew Global Attitudes Project

On the eve of the first presidential election of the post-Mubarak era, Egyptians remain hopeful about the future of their country, and they strongly desire both an improved economy and the democratic freedoms they were denied under the previous regime.

A recent survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project found that 52% of Egyptians are optimistic about the future, while just 18% are pessimistic. And 53% are satisfied with the direction of the country, down slightly from 65% in a 2011 poll conducted shortly after the fall of Mubarak, but still considerably higher than the 28% registered in 2010, during the final year of the autocrat’s three decades in power.

As Egyptians head to the polls, the economy is their biggest concern, according to the Pew survey conducted March 19 to April 10. Roughly eight-in-ten (81%) consider improving the economy a very important priority for the country. Only 27% describe the current economic situation as good. And regardless of which candidate wins the presidency, he will face high economic expectations – 50% think the economy will improve in the next 12 months; just 20% say it will get worse.

While growing the economy is clearly a top priority for Egyptians, so is democracy. In fact, when asked which is more important, a strong economy or a good democracy, the public is divided: 49% say the former and 48% the latter.

And despite a tumultuous and often difficult year, support for democracy has not ebbed. Two-in-three Egyptians (67%) believe democracy is the best form of government, basically unchanged from 71% in 2011.

Moreover, Egyptians do not just voice support for democracy in a general sense – they also want specific democratic rights and institutions. In particular, they want a fair judiciary: 81% consider it is very important to live in a country with a judicial system that treats everyone in the same way. About six-in-ten say it is very important to live in a country with a free press (62%); free speech (60%); and honest, competitive elections with at least two political parties (58%). In addition to these fundamental components of democracy, Egyptians also want order: 60% rate law and order as very important.

Meanwhile, civilian control of the military is considered a relatively low priority, as just 24% think this is very important. Overall, the military continues to receive positive marks. Three-in-four say it is having a good influence on the country and 63% express a favorable view of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which has led the country throughout the transition period. And while ratings for SCAF Chairman Mohamed Tantawi have fallen from last year’s sky-high 90%, he is still viewed favorably by 63% of Egyptians.

For more, see Egyptians Remain Optimistic, Embrace Democracy and Religion in Political Life.

Despite economic difficulties and political uncertainty, Egyptians remain upbeat about the course of the nation and prospects for progress. Amid rancorous debates over the presidential election and the shape of a new constitution, most Egyptians continue to want democracy, with two-in-three saying it is the best form of government.

Egyptians also want Islam to play a major role in society, and most believe the Quran should shape the country’s laws, although a growing minority expresses reservations about the increasing influence of Islam in politics. When asked which country is the better model for the role of religion in government, Turkey or Saudi Arabia, 61% say the latter. However, most also endorse specific democratic rights and institutions that do not exist in Saudi Arabia, such as free speech, a free press, and equal rights for women.

Seven-in-ten Egyptians express a favorable view of the Muslim Brotherhood, down just slightly from 75% a year ago. Most (56%) also have a positive opinion of the Brotherhood-affiliated Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), the largest party in the newly elected parliament. The more conservative al-Nour fares less well: 44% have a favorable and 44% an unfavorable view of the Salafist party. Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, a Salafist leader who was recently disqualified as a presidential candidate, gets somewhat better ratings (52% positive, 42% negative).

Presidential contender Amr Moussa receives overwhelmingly positive marks, with 81% expressing a positive opinion of the former Foreign Minister and Arab League chief. Meanwhile, 58% have a favorable view of moderate Islamist presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh.

The April 6^th Movement, a loose organization of mostly young and secular activists that played a key role in the demonstrations that forced Hosni Mubarak from office, is rated favorably by 68% of Egyptians. However, the Egyptian Bloc, a mostly secular coalition of political parties, is not popular – just 38% assign it a positive rating.

While many have criticized the military in recent months for its handling of the post-Mubarak transition, it continues to be largely well-regarded. Three-in-four Egyptians believe the military is having a good influence on the country, and 63% hold a positive opinion of the ruling Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF). And while favorable ratings for SCAF Chairman Mohamed Tantawi have declined significantly from last year’s 90%, they remain high at 63%.

Most Egyptians support civilian control of the military, but other key institutional features of democracy are considered higher priorities. Roughly six-in-ten (62%) say civilian control is an important priority, but only 24% consider it very important, essentially unchanged from 27% in 2011. In contrast, 81% believe a fair judiciary is very important, similar to last year’s 82%. Views toward other key democratic rights and institutions also show little change since last year.

These are among the principal findings from a nationwide survey of Egypt by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 1,000 adults in Egypt between March 19 and April 10, 2012. The poll finds little change in Egyptian perceptions of the United States. Only 19% offer a positive rating of the U.S. and just 29% express confidence in President Obama. The survey also finds ongoing opposition to the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel: 61% prefer to annul the treaty, up from 54% a year ago.

Desire for Democracy, But Also Order and Growth

Egyptians continue to voice confidence in democracy. Two-thirds consider it preferable to any other kind of government, while just 19% say in some circumstances a non-democratic form of government may be best, and just 13% believe it doesn’t really matter what kind of government rules the country. Roughly six-in-ten (61%) think democracy is best-suited for solving the country’s problems, while only 33% say a leader with a strong hand would be better equipped for dealing with these challenges.

At the same time, it is clear that Egyptians also want law and order: six-in-ten consider this a very important priority. And the economy remains a major concern. About eight-in-ten (81%) say improving economic conditions should be a top priority. Just 27% describe the country’s economic situation as good, down from 34% in 2011. Still, on balance, Egyptians remain optimistic about their economic future: 50% expect the economy to improve over the next 12 months, only 20% think it will worsen, and 28% believe it will stay about the same.

A growing number of Egyptians sees Islam as playing a major role in the political life of the country – 66% currently compared with 47% in 2010. For the most part, those who believe Islam is playing a large role see this as good for the country, but more disagree with that view this year than last. Conflicting views about the role of religion in politics are also seen in the significant numbers who say Saudi Arabia is the best model for Egypt, yet endorse key features of democracy. Among those who choose Saudi Arabia over Turkey as the best model for Egypt, two-thirds also say democracy is preferable to any other kind of government. More than six-in-ten say it is very important to live in a country with a free press (64%), honest multiparty elections (63%), and freedom of speech (61%).

U.S. Image Still Negative

America’s image remains overwhelmingly negative – only 19% offer a favorable opinion of the U.S., basically unchanged from 20% in 2011. But a large majority does not see the U.S. as having a major influence on political developments in Egypt.

Egyptian opinions about President Obama have grown steadily more negative over the course of his presidency. In a 2009 poll conducted a few months after he took office, Egyptians were divided over the new American president: 42% expressed a great deal or some confidence that he would do the right thing in world affairs; 47% said they had little or no confidence.¹ Today, 29% have confidence in Obama, while 69% lack confidence.

Although the U.S. has sent billions of dollars in aid to Egypt over the last few decades, few believe it is helping the country. Indeed, roughly six-in-ten say both American military and economic aid are having a mostly negative impact on Egypt.

Despite these negative sentiments, a majority of Egyptians says either they want the U.S.-Egypt relationship to stay about as close as it has been in recent years (35%) or become even closer (20%), while 38% would like to see relations become less close.

Overall, Egyptians believe the U.S. exerts a limited influence on their country’s tumultuous politics. When asked whether the American response to Egypt’s political situation is having a positive or negative impact, 62% say it is having neither.

Moreover, few believe there is a hidden Western hand behind the country’s ongoing protests. Just 21% say the demonstrations are a result of Western efforts to destabilize Egypt, while 74% think the protests reflect genuine Egyptian discontent with the country’s political situation.

Also of Note

• Six-in-ten say the People’s Assembly, Egypt’s newly elected lower house of parliament, is having a positive influence on the country, while 39% believe it is having a negative effect.
• Four-in-ten believe that under an FJP-led government women will have more rights than they had in the past, while 27% say they will have fewer rights. Roughly three-in-ten (31%) think women will have about the same rights as in the past.
• Views toward one-time presidential hopeful Mohamed ElBaradei have soured. In 2011, 57% held a positive view of the former International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) chief, while just 39% rated him negatively. Now opinions are divided: 48% favorable, 50% unfavorable.
• Fayza Abul Naga, the Egyptian Cabinet official who led efforts to prosecute American NGO representatives (as well as representatives from Egyptian and other foreign NGOs) enjoys little popularity. Abul Naga, who is a holdover from the Mubarak era, receives a favorable rating from 35% of Egyptians, while 50% offer a negative assessment.

Democracy Is a Priority, But So Is Economy

Two-thirds of Egyptians believe democracy is preferable to any other type of government. Just 19% say in some circumstances, a non-democratic form of government may be preferable, while 13% say that, for someone like them, it does not matter what kind of government Egypt has.

This is basically unchanged from last year, when 71% said democracy was the best form of government. Confidence in democracy is somewhat higher now than in 2010, when six-in-ten Egyptians said it was preferable to other political systems.

Most continue to believe a democratic government, rather than a strong leader, is best equipped to deal with the country’s problems. Roughly six-in-ten (61%) hold this view, similar to last year’s 64%, but significantly higher than the 50% registered in 2007.

Opinions are divided, however, when Egyptians are asked to choose between democracy and the economy. About half (48%) say a good democracy is more important and about half (49%) say a strong economy should be the priority. Results on this question were almost exactly the same one year ago.

Most Value Specific Democratic Rights, Institutions

Egyptians believe many key features of democracy are crucial to their country’s future. Roughly eight-in-ten (81%) say it is very important to live in a country with a fair judicial system, and solid majorities rate a free press (62%), free speech (60%), and honest multiparty elections (58%) as very important.

Other key democratic rights and institutions, while considered at least somewhat important by a majority of Egyptians, do not register as top priorities. In particular, only 24% say that having a military that is under control of civilian leaders is very important. Less than half say that equal rights for women (41%), religious freedom for minorities (38%), and uncensored internet access (35%) are very important.

And while most Egyptians value democracy, it is clear that the economy and social order also rank as high priorities. About eight-in-ten (81%) believe improved economic conditions are very important and 60% say this about law and order.

While the military’s ratings may have dropped somewhat since 2011, a majority of Egyptians continues to hold a positive view of the military, the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), and SCAF’s Chairman Mohamed Tantawi.

The Muslim Brotherhood also continues to be highly regarded. Opinions toward other religious groups and leaders, however, are mixed. The Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), the political party affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, and Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a moderate Islamist who broke with the Muslim Brotherhood to run for president, are slightly less well-reviewed. Egyptians are less favorable toward more conservative religious parties and leaders, such as al-Nour and Hazem Salah Abu Ismail.

Amr Moussa, prior Secretary General of the Arab League and a former foreign minister under Mubarak, is the most popular among the political leaders asked about in the survey. Other secular leaders and groups do not fare as well. Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the IAEA and an important figure in the protests against Mubarak, has dropped somewhat in favorability since 2011. The Egyptian Bloc, a coalition of liberal and secular political parties, is also rated negatively.

Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Fayza Abul Naga, who was instrumental in the recent investigation of American non-governmental organizations operating in Egypt, receives poor ratings.

Political institutions, such as the court system and the People’s Assembly, receive mostly positive reviews for their influence on the country. The local police, however, are generally viewed negatively.

Rating Institutions

Religious leaders and the military continue to be the most highly-rated groups in Egypt. About eight-in-ten (83%) Egyptians say religious leaders have a very or somewhat good influence on the country, including 36% who say their influence is very good.

Despite the considerable political turmoil that has surrounded the military over the past year, a broad majority (75%) of Egyptians continues to say it has a good influence, including 43% who say very good. While ratings for the military remain high, positive ratings have fallen by 13 points since 2011. The drop has been especially large among women and lower-income respondents. In 2011, 58% of women said the military’s influence was very good; today, only 38% say the same. Among lower-income Egyptians, the change was from 69% saying very good in 2011 to 46% now.

The media – such as television, radio, newspapers, and magazines – receives high marks from all sectors of Egyptian society, with 70% of the public expressing a positive assessment.

Other institutions that do well are the court system, the People’s Assembly, and the Central Security Forces. The court system is rated positively by 61% of Egyptians, falling somewhat from 67% in 2011. Similarly, about six-in-ten believe the People’s Assembly (60%) and the Central Security Forces (63%), a national law enforcement organization, have a very or somewhat good influence.

Opinions about the local police are much more negative. Just over a third (37%) of Egyptians views the local police as having a good influence, while a majority (62%) rates it as very or somewhat bad, including 35% who say very bad.

Rating Political Groups and Parties

The Muslim Brotherhood and April 6 Movement – two key groups involved in last year’s Tahrir Square demonstrations – continue to be viewed favorably, as they were right after the uprising in 2011. About seven-in-ten Egyptians rate both groups positively, including almost a third who give both groups a very favorable rating.

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces is also well-regarded by a majority, despite recent concerns that SCAF will not hand over power to a democratically-elected president next month. About six-in-ten (63%) Egyptians have a positive attitude toward SCAF, including 20% very favorable.

Among the major political parties included on the survey, the Freedom and Justice Party and al-Wafd Party, a secular party which has held legal status since 1978, receive the highest ratings. The FJP is reviewed positively by 56% of Egyptians and 52% are favorable toward al-Wafd.

Egyptians are divided on both al-Wasat Party, a group that broke away from the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1990’s, and al-Nour Party, the largest party associated with the conservative Salafists. Just under half (46%) rate al-Wasat positively and a similar percentage (48%) rates them negatively. Equal percentages (44%) are favorable and unfavorable toward al-Nour.

The liberal, secular Egyptian Bloc is the least popular of the major political groups that hold seats in the People’s Assembly. About four-in-ten (38%) Egyptians hold favorable opinions of the Egyptian Bloc and nearly half (47%) are unfavorable.

Since Mubarak left office in 2011, there has been considerable political conflict between the Freedom and Justice Party, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, and the
Egyptian Bloc. Despite this conflict at the elite level, the supporters of these various groups among the public do not exhibit the same level of polarization. Instead, people who are favorable toward one of these organizations tend to also view the other groups positively. For example, among those who rate the Egyptian Bloc favorably, over half also rate the FJP (54%) and SCAF (70%) positively. Among those who are favorable toward the FJP, 80% are favorable toward SCAF. And among SCAF supporters, 72% are positive toward the FJP. These patterns suggest the general public is not yet making strong distinctions between the leading political groups.

Rating Political Leaders

Current presidential candidate Amr Moussa is very popular with the Egyptian public: 81% give him favorable ratings, down only slightly from 89% in 2011.

Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi is also well-regarded by a majority (63%) of Egyptians, although his favorability rating has fallen from last year’s 90%. The decline has been especially steep among women: 59% express a positive view of him now, compared with 92% a year ago.

Ayman Nour, founder of the liberal al-Ghad party and a critic of SCAF, receives high marks from 61% of Egyptians. Similarly, about six-in-ten (58%) rate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh positively.

The public expresses less favorable opinions about both Hazem Salah Abu Ismail and Mohamed ElBaradei. Abu Ismail, a conservative Salafist presidential candidate who was recently disqualified from the race, receives favorable reviews from 52% of Egyptians and unfavorable reviews from 42%.

ElBaradei’s favorable ratings have slipped somewhat from 57% in 2011 to 48% today. Support for ElBaradei has dropped the most among younger people – his strongest supporters in 2011 (65% favorable) are now his weakest (46% favorable).

Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Fayza Abul Naga is the least popular among the political leaders included on the survey. Just over a third (35%) of Egyptians are favorable toward Abul Naga, while half (50%) are unfavorable and 15% offer no opinion.

As the death toll continues to rise in Mexico’s drug war, now claiming more than 35,000 lives since President Felipe Calderón took office in December 2006, fewer than half (45%) of Mexicans say their government is making progress in its campaign against drug cartels; 29% say the government is losing ground and 25% say things are about the same as they have been in the past.

Still, an overwhelming majority (83%) continues to endorse the use of the Mexican army to fight drug traffickers, virtually unchanged in recent years. Moreover, many welcome U.S. help in training Mexican police and military personnel (74%) and providing money and weapons to Mexican police and military forces (64%).

And while Mexicans broadly oppose the deployment of U.S. troops to combat drug traffickers in Mexico (38% support and 57% oppose), more now support this strategy than did so in 2010, when only about a quarter (26%) favored the deployment of U.S. troops in their country and two-thirds opposed it.

The survey of Mexico conducted by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project between March 22 and April 7 also finds that illegal drugs and cartel-related violence rank among the top national problems facing Mexico; 71% say illegal drugs are a very big problem in their country and even more (77%) see the violence associated with drug cartels as a major challenge.

Concerns about illegal drugs and cartel-related violence are especially widespread in the North, where Mexico’s cartels have been especially active. Nearly nine-in-ten (87%) in North Mexico say illegal drugs are a very big problem in their country, compared with 69% in the South and in the Greater Mexico City area and 63% in Central Mexico. Similarly, 94% in the North see the violence associated with drug cartels as a very big problem; 75% in Mexico City, 73% in the South and 69% in Central Mexico share this concern.

When asked who is most to blame for the drug violence in their country, more now say both Mexico and the U.S. are to blame than did so in recent surveys. About six-in-ten (61%) Mexicans blame both nations; 51% held this view in 2009 and 2010. Currently, 18% say the U.S. is mostly to blame and about the same percentage (16%) blame Mexico; a year ago, nearly twice as many said the U.S. was mostly to blame as named Mexico (27% vs. 14%).

U.S. Image Positive

The image of the U.S. has rebounded somewhat since the passage of Arizona’s controversial immigration bill in April 2010, but it remains far more negative than it was prior to the law’s enactment. Currently, a slim majority (52%) of Mexicans hold a favorable view of the U.S., while 41% express a negative opinion.

A year ago, 56% had a favorable view of the U.S., but those who were interviewed before Gov. Jan Brewer signed the Arizona measure into law on April 23, 2010, offered far more positive opinions than those interviewed following the law’s enactment; 62% of those interviewed April 14-20, 2010 rated the U.S. favorably, compared with just 44% of those interviewed May 1-6, 2010. In 2009, nearly seven-in-ten Mexicans (69%) expressed a positive attitude toward the U.S.

Fewer See a Better Life in U.S.

Mexicans are less likely than they were two years ago to say that people from their country who move to the U.S. have a better life than those who stay in Mexico. Fewer than half (44%) now say this is the case; 22% say life is worse in the U.S. and 29% say it is neither better nor worse. In 2009, nearly six-in-ten (57%) said people who moved to the U.S. from Mexico enjoyed a better life in the host country, while 14% believe life was worse for those who moved to the U.S. and 22% said it was neither better nor worse.

As was the case in 2009, most Mexicans (61%) say they would not move to the U.S. if they had the means and opportunity to do so. Among the sizeable minority (38%) who would move to the U.S. if they could, 53% (or, 20% of the total population) say they would be inclined to do so without authorization. (For a more detailed analysis of Mexican immigration patterns, see “The Mexican American Boom: Births Overtake Immigration,” Pew Hispanic Center, released July 14, 2011.)

Younger respondents are more likely than older ones to say they would move to the U.S. Slightly more than half (52%) of those younger than age 30 say they would move if they had the means and opportunity to do so, including 28% who say they would be inclined to work and live in the U.S. without authorization. In contrast, just 36% of those ages 30 to 49 and 27% of those 50 and older say they would move to the U.S. (20% and 11%, respectively, say they would do so without authorization).

Most Unhappy With Country’s Direction

After shrinking in 2009, during the global recession, Mexico’s economy rebounded impressively in 2010 – growing at its fastest rate in a decade. Still, an overwhelming majority of Mexicans remain dissatisfied with economic conditions and with their nation’s direction overall. Roughly three-quarters (76%) say they are unhappy with the way things are going in their country, little changed from assessments in 2009 and 2010. Dissatisfaction with the country’s direction is common across the different regions of Mexico and cuts across income and educational levels.

Discontent with current economic conditions is similarly widespread with about two-thirds (68%) describing the economy as poor, down slightly from 75% in 2010; just 30% say the economic situation in Mexico is good.

Looking ahead, Mexicans are no more optimistic than they were a year ago about their country’s economic prospects. Roughly half (48%) believe the economy will improve over the next 12 months, while 29% think it will remain the same and 22% say it will worsen, virtually unchanged from 2010. In 2009, however, as the effects of the global recession and the faltering U.S. economy were beginning to be felt, Mexicans were actually more optimistic, with 61% saying economic conditions would improve in the coming year.

Crime and Drug-Related Violence Top Concerns

As noted earlier, among the challenges confronting their country, Mexicans most frequently name crime (80%) and cartel-related violence (77%) as very big problems. Roughly seven-in-ten (71%) see illegal drugs in the same light. Most (69%) also describe economic problems as a major challenge. Indeed, when asked specifically about rising prices and lack of job opportunities, majorities (74% and 70%, respectively) say these are very big problems in Mexico today. Slightly smaller numbers place corruption (65%) and terrorism (62%) in this category, while fewer than six-in-ten (56%) characterize pollution as a very big problem. Just half say people leaving the country for jobs elsewhere is a major issue.

While crime and cartel-related violence rate as major challenges among all Mexicans, those with lower incomes are especially concerned about terrorism, with more than seven-in-ten (73%) among this group describing terrorism as a very big problem.¹ Only 54% of middle-income and 49% of higher-income Mexicans see terrorism in the same light.

Despite the economy not topping the public’s list of major challenges, when asked separately about rising prices and lack of job opportunities, strong majorities (74% and 70%, respectively) say these are very big problems in Mexico today.

Not surprisingly, given the high levels of concern about crime and cartel-related violence, Mexicans by a 58%-to-26% margin say it is more important for the government to try to maintain law and order than to protect people’s personal freedoms. About one-in-seven (15%) volunteer that the government should give equal weight to both. Compared with two years ago, the number of Mexicans who think personal freedoms should take precedent over law and order has increased eight percentage points, rising from 18% in spring 2009.

Supporters of President Calderón’s PAN tend to be more insistent that law and order should be the government’s top priority. Roughly seven-in-ten (71%) PAN supporters say it is more important for the authorities to maintain law and order than to protect personal freedoms; only 52% of those who back the opposition PRI agree with this view.

Views of Calderón and the National Government

Despite overwhelming concerns about crime and drug-related violence and negative assessments of the country’s economy and overall direction, most Mexicans continue to say that President Calderón and the national government are having a positive impact on the country. Nearly six-in-ten (57%) say the president’s influence is good, while 39% describe it as bad; 54% give the national government a positive rating, while 41% say the government is having a negative influence.

Compared with two years ago, however, views of Calderón and the government have become increasingly negative. In 2009, three-quarters said Calderón was having a positive influence and 72% said the same about the national government; just 22% and 26% gave the president and the government, respectively, a negative rating.

Views of the national government are tied, at least in part, to opinions about the government’s handling of drug traffickers; a solid majority (63%) of those saying the Mexican government is making progress against drug traffickers describe the national government’s influence as good, compared with 47% of those who say the government is losing ground and 46% of those who say things are about the same as they have been in the past.

Military and Media Receive Positive Ratings

Most Mexicans say the military and the media are having a very or somewhat good influence on the way things are going in Mexico (62% and 60%, respectively) In contrast, only about three-in-ten say the court system (32%) and the police (30%) are having a positive influence.

While the military remains popular, the percentage saying it is having a good influence has declined by double digits, from 77% in 2009. Ratings for the media have also declined over the last two years, though not as dramatically; 68% said the media was having a good influence on the way things were going in Mexico in 2009. In 2002, when the question was first asked, 84% of Mexicans saw the media’s influence as positive.

Rating Political Leaders

A slim majority (55%) of Mexicans have a favorable opinion of President Felipe Calderón, while 42% express an unfavorable opinion; in 2009, about two-thirds (68%) had a positive view of the president. Gustavo Madero Muñoz, the president of Calderón’s PAN party, receives negative ratings on balance, with nearly four-in-ten (39%) expressing an unfavorable opinion, 18% voicing a favorable opinion and 43% of respondents not offering an opinion of the current president of the PAN party.

Enrique Peña Nieto, current governor of the State of Mexico and potential presidential candidate for the PRI, is viewed favorably by about six-in-ten (61%) Mexicans, while only 31% express an unfavorable view of him. Majorities across all demographic groups offer a positive opinion, with especially high ratings among those who identify with the PRI (80% favorable). Beatriz Paredes Rangel, former president of the PRI, receives more mixed ratings; 43% of Mexicans voice a favorable opinion of her and 38% offer an unfavorable view.

Marcelo Ebrard, current mayor of Mexico City and a member of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), is seen favorably by 35% of Mexicans, while nearly half (46%) have an unfavorable view of him. Ebrard is viewed most warmly by residents of Mexico City; 56% have a favorable view, compared with about three-in-ten in North (32%) and Central (31%) Mexico and 26% in the South.

Fellow PRD member Andrés Manuel López Obrador has the highest unfavorable ratings of the politicians tested, with over six-in-ten (62%) voicing an unfavorable opinion of the 2006 presidential election runner-up and one-third expressing a positive view. Views of Jesus Ortega Martinez, president of the PRD, are also negative, on balance (22% favorable vs. 45% unfavorable); one-third of Mexicans do not offer an opinion. Favorable ratings for Martinez have declined 15 percentage points since 2009, when nearly four-in-ten (37%) Mexicans offered a favorable view of the PRD leader.

Egyptians of all ages, from all walks of life, and parts of the country continue to celebrate the dramatic political changes their nation has undergone. Overwhelmingly, they say it is good that former president Hosni Mubarak is gone. Nearly two-in-three are satisfied with the way things are going in Egypt, and most are optimistic about their country’s future.

This is not to say that many do not remain cautious about the prospects for political change – just 41% say that a free and fair choice in the next election is very likely, while as many (43%) think it is only somewhat likely, and 16% say it is unlikely.

In this new political era, Egyptians are embracing long-standing bases of power, and new ones, as well. The military and its leadership are very well regarded, and the Egyptian public is clearly open to religion-based political parties being part of a future government. Most have a favorable opinion of the Muslim Brotherhood, and looking ahead to the elections, it has as much potential support as any of a number of political parties. But other agents of political change are also viewed positively by majorities of Egyptians, including the relatively secular April 6 Movement and political leaders Amr Moussa, Ayman Nour, and Mohamed ElBaradei.

No dividend emerges for the United States from the political changes that have occurred in Egypt. Favorable ratings of the U.S. remain as low as they have been in recent years, and many Egyptians say they want a less close relationship with America. Israel fares even more poorly. By a 54%-to-36% margin, Egyptians want the peace treaty with that country annulled.

These are the principal findings from a nationwide survey of Egypt by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 1,000 adults in Egypt between March 24 and April 7, 2011. The poll finds Egyptians anxious for democracy and accountable government. When they are asked what has concerned them most about Egypt in recent years, corruption and a lack of democracy top the list.

And support for democracy is clearly on the rise in Egypt. Last year, 60% of Egyptians said that democracy is preferable to any other type of government; today, 71% hold this view. By a 64%-to-34% majority, most say they favor a democratic form of government over a strong leader. Four years ago the public was evenly divided on this basic question about governance. Moreover, 62% want parliamentary and presidential elections as soon as possible, rather than delaying them to give political parties more time to organize.

Yet, the poll finds that the desire for free multiparty elections co-exists, and potentially competes with, other aspirations. More Egyptians say that improved economic conditions (82%) and a fair judiciary (79%) are very important than say that about honest, multiparty elections (55%). And maintaining law and order is also more highly rated (63%). In that regard, when asked to choose which is more important – a democratic government, even if there is some risk of political instability, or a stable government that is not fully democratic – democracy wins out, but by a narrow 54%-majority; 32% choose stability, and as many as 14% of Egyptians say they are not sure. When a good democracy is tested against a strong economy, it is a 47%-to-49% draw, respectively.

Regarding economic conditions, the survey finds Egyptians somewhat more positive than they were a year ago. About one-third (34%) now rate the economy as good, compared with 20% in 2010; still, most (64%) say economic conditions are bad. But fully 56% think the economy will improve over the next year. Just 25% were optimistic in 2010.

The Military Stands Out

The military is now almost universally seen (88%) as having a good influence on the way things are going in Egypt. Fully 90% rate military chief Mohamed Tantawi favorably. In contrast, views of the police are on balance negative (39% good influence, 61% bad influence). The court system and religious leaders are seen by most as having a good influence on the country, 67% and 81% respectively, but it is of note that fewer Egyptians give religious leaders very good ratings this year than did so in 2007 (29% vs. 43%). Most see the traditional news media’s influence as having a positive impact on the way things are going, and the survey found as many as 23% saying they use social networking sites to get news and information about the political situation in Egypt.

Egyptians are welcoming some forms of change more than others. While half say it is very important that religious parties be allowed to be part of the government, only 27% give a similar priority to assuring that the military falls under civilian control. Relatively few (39%) give high priority to women having the same rights as men. Women themselves are more likely to say it is very important that they are assured equal rights than are men (48% vs. 30%). Overall, just 36% think it is very important that Coptic Christians and other religious minorities are able to freely practice their religions.

Religiosity

Egyptians hold diverse views about religion. About six-in-ten (62%) think laws should strictly follow the teachings of the Quran. However, only 31% of Egyptian Muslims say they sympathize with Islamic fundamentalists, while nearly the same number (30%) say they sympathize with those who disagree with the fundamentalists, and 26% have mixed views on this question. Those who disagree with fundamentalists are almost evenly divided on whether the treaty with Israel should be annulled, while others favor ending the pact by a goodly margin.

Views of U.S.

Only 20% of Egyptians hold a favorable opinion of the United States, which is nearly identical to the 17% who rated it favorably in 2010. Better educated and younger Egyptians have a slightly more positive attitude toward the U.S. than do other Egyptians.

Ratings for U.S. President Barack Obama are also basically unchanged from last year – currently, 35% of Egyptians express confidence in Obama to do the right thing in world affairs, compared with 33% in 2010. The American president gets more negative than positive reviews for how he is handling the political changes sweeping through the Middle East: 52% disapprove of how Obama is dealing with the calls for political change in nations such as Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, and Libya. A plurality of those who disapprove say Obama has shown too little support for those who are calling for change.

When asked specifically about the U.S. response to the political situation in Egypt, 39% say the U.S. has had a negative impact, while just 22% say it has had a positive effect, and 35% volunteer that the U.S. has neither positively nor negatively influenced the situation in their country.

Looking to the future, few Egyptians (15%) want closer ties with the U.S., while 43% would prefer a more distant relationship, and 40% would like the relationship between the two countries to remain about as close as it has been in recent years.

For instance, both the Muslim Brotherhood and the relatively secular April 6 Movement receive positive reviews. Also, Secretary General of the Arab League – and candidate in the upcoming presidential race – Amr Moussa is extremely well-regarded, with about nine-in-ten Egyptians expressing a positive opinion of him. While views are somewhat more divided toward another leading contender for the presidency, former International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) head Mohamed ElBaradei, he nonetheless receives a favorable rating from a majority of Egyptians.

Overall, most of those surveyed say that religious leaders are having a positive impact on the country, although the topic of religion clearly divides Egyptians. Roughly one-third of Egyptian Muslims say they sympathize with Islamic fundamentalists, roughly a third sympathize with those who disagree with fundamentalists, and the rest decline to choose a side in the ongoing debate about Islamic fundamentalism and its place in Egyptian society.

Rating Institutions

Across all major segments of the Egyptian public, the military receives overwhelmingly positive ratings. Fully 88% of Egyptians say the military is having a good influence on the country, including 53% who believe it is having a very good influence. Views of the military are more positive now than in 2007, when 70% said it was having a positive impact and 30% described the military’s influence as very good.

The military is especially popular among poorer Egyptians. Roughly seven-in-ten (69%) lower-income respondents characterize the military’s influence as very good, compared with 48% of those in the middle-income category, and 46% of high-income Egyptians. Women also express more intense support of the military than do men (58% of women compared with 49% of men rate military influence as very good).

About eight-in-ten Egyptians (81%) think religious leaders are having a good influence on the country. However, the percentage saying these leaders are having a very good impact has slipped from 43% in 2007 to 29% today.

The media and judiciary also receive largely favorable reviews. Roughly seven-in-ten (69%) believe the media – such as television, radio, newspapers and magazines – are having a positive effect. Similarly, 67% say the court system’s influence is positive.

Among the institutions tested, the police receive by far the worst ratings. Only 39% of Egyptians say the police are having a good impact, while 61% believe they are having a bad effect on the country.

The police are especially unpopular among older Egyptians, the poor, the less educated, and urban dwellers. Among people younger than age 50, about four-in-ten say the police are having a good influence, but only 29% of those 50 and older hold this view. While 48% of the college-educated describe the influence of the police as positive, just 37% of people with a secondary education and 36% of those with at most a primary school education agree.

High-income (47% good) and middle-income (46%) Egyptians have a much more favorable impression of the police than those in the low-income category (17%). And Egyptians in rural areas (44%) see the police in a more positive light than those in urban areas (33%).

Rating Political Leaders and Groups

Both the April 6 Movement and the Muslim Brotherhood – two of the highest-profile groups involved with the demonstrations against Mubarak – are broadly popular among the Egyptian public. Three-in-four express a favorable opinion of the Muslim Brotherhood, and 37% have a very favorable opinion of this organization, which has been a major presence in Egyptian society for decades, although it was officially banned from politics throughout the Mubarak era. Support for the Brotherhood is somewhat less intense among lower-income Egyptians (26% very favorable) than among those in middle- (41%) and higher- (43%) income categories.

Seven-in-ten Egyptians express a positive opinion of the April 6 Movement, a protest organization formed just three years ago. Even though this group is often associated with the young, technologically savvy protesters in Tahrir Square, it is equally popular among 18-29 year-olds (69% favorable), 30-49 year-olds (69%), and people 50 and older (70%). There are, however, differences among income groups: 57% in the low- income category hold a positive view of the movement, compared with 71% of middle-income respondents and 80% of high-income Egyptians.

Individual leaders associated with the overthrow of Mubarak also do well in the ratings. Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, current Chairman of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, receives especially high marks: 90% have a favorable view of the military leader, including 45% who say they have a very favorable view. Support for Tantawi is particularly strong among lower-income Egyptians, 56% of whom give him a very positive rating.

Egyptians also give positive reviews to Amr Moussa, current head of the Arab League and formerly a foreign minister under Mubarak. Roughly nine-in-ten (89%) assign him a favorable rating, and 41% say their impression of Moussa is very favorable. High-income Egyptians (49% very favorable) are particularly supportive
of Moussa.

Seven-in-ten Egyptians express a positive opinion of Ayman Nour, a leader of the Al-Ghad Party who was jailed for a number of years during Mubarak’s presidency. Former IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei also gets a positive rating from most (57%), although a significant minority (39%) expresses an unfavorable opinion of him. Both Nour and ElBaradei are especially popular among younger people and wealthier respondents.

Views About Fundamentalism

There is no clear consensus about the role of Islamic fundamentalism in Egypt. About three-in-ten Muslim Egyptians (31%) say they tend to sympathize with the Islamic fundamentalists in their country, while 30% sympathize more with those who disagree with Islamic fundamentalists. Four-in-ten do not choose a side.

Fundamentalism is less popular among poorer Egyptians – just 20% in the low-income group say they agree with Islamic fundamentalists, while 35% disagree.