Current Leadership Gets High Marks

Two-thirds have a favorable view of Ennahda leaders PM Hamadi Jebali and Rached Ghannouchi, making them the most popular politicians polled in Tunisia.⁴ Ettakatol party leader Mustapha Ben Jaafar and independent Beji Caid Essebsi, interim prime minister from February to December, 2011, are also popular, drawing majority support from Tunisians (58% and 56%, respectively).

Maya Jribi, leader of the centrist Republican Party is less popular, with only a third of Tunisians viewing her favorably, 39% expressing an unfavorable view and 28% offering no opinion.⁵

Hachmi Hamdi, a journalist and the leader of Aridha Chaabia (i.e. Popular Petition Party), is the least-popular politician tested. Only 26% see him favorably, while over half (54%) have an unfavorable view of the politician who many believe has close ties to ousted former President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.

Positive ratings of these politicians are related to views of democracy. Tunisians who favor democracy over a strong leader give the scholar-politician Ghannouchi a 73% positive rating, while only 58% of those who favor a strong leader agree. On the other hand, 64% of Tunisians who prefer a strong leader have a favorable view of former Prime Minister Essebsi, while roughly half (52%) of those who choose democracy say the same.

Coalition Partners Seen Favorably

The ruling moderate Islamist party Ennahda receives strong support from the Tunisian people. Nearly two-thirds (65%) have a favorable view of the Assembly’s leading party, while only three-in-ten have an unfavorable view.

Ennahda’s more secular coalition partners, Congress Party for the Republic (CPR) and Ettakatol (FDTL), garner notably less support – 48% and 44% of Tunisians have favorable views of these parties, respectively. However, more educated Tunisians have a sunnier view. For example, 57% of Tunisians with a college degree have a favorable view of Ettakatol, while only 38% with primary schooling or less feel the same.

Tunisians have more negative views of other major parties in the assembly. The Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), which recently merged with other centrist parties to form the Republican Party, is seen favorably by only 31% of Tunisians and unfavorably by 45%.

Meanwhile, majorities have a negative view of Aridha Chaabia, a populist leaning party, and the Tunisian Workers Communist Party (PCOT). Only about one-in-five Tunisians have a favorable view of either Aridha Chaabia (23%) or PCOT (17%).

Military Gets Exceptional Ratings

The military is far and away the most popular of the leading institutions tested in Tunisia, with 97% saying it is a good influence on the way things are going and almost three-quarters (72%) saying it is a very good influence. Majorities also see the police and media positively (69% and 63% respectively).

On balance, Tunisians say the court system (53%) and religious leaders (50%) are a good influence on the country, but opinions about the Constituent Assembly (NCA), which is charged with writing Tunisia’s new constitution, are more divided. An almost equal number of Tunisians say the Assembly is a positive influence (45%) as say it is negative (47%). Meanwhile, trade unions are seen negatively – only 32% say they are a good influence on the country and half say they are a bad influence.

Generally, lower income and less educated Tunisians have a higher opinion of the police, the media, the court system and religious leaders than their better educated and wealthier compatriots. For example, nearly seven-in-ten (69%) Tunisians with a primary education or less think the media is a good influence on the way things are going, while only half with a college degree agree. And while two-thirds of low-income Tunisians see the media positively, only 52% of high-income earners agree.⁶

In addition, views of the Assembly are shaped by religiosity and commitment to democracy. Roughly half (49%) of Tunisian Muslims who pray five times per day have a favorable view of the Assembly, but only 37% who pray less than that agree. And half of Tunisians who prefer democracy to a strong leader say the Assembly is a good influence, while only 38% of those who prefer a strong leader say the same.

Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry are also popular with more than half of Pakistanis, while former President Pervez Musharraf receives much lower ratings.⁴ Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar is generally unknown.

Despite a number of high-profile conflicts over the past year between the elected government, the military and the courts, Pakistanis’ opinions about these national institutions have remained relatively stable. The military and the court system continue to be seen as having a positive influence on the country, while the government receives overwhelmingly negative reviews. Other positive influences are the media and religious leaders, while the police have a dismal image.

Khan and Sharif Get Positive Reviews

Among the top political rivals included in the survey, the two major opposition leaders, Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif, are still the most popular. Seven-in-ten give Khan positive reviews. Favorable ratings of the PTI leader have increased by 18 percentage points over the past two years. While Khan is popular among all age groups, Pakistanis age 18-29 (76%) are more favorable than those age 50 and older (63%).

As Khan has become increasingly popular, attitudes also appear to have shifted in favor of his political party. Just three years ago, less than 1% of Pakistanis identified with the PTI while 30% named the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and 25% the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). Today, 14% identify with the PTI, the same percentage that names the PPP and only slightly less than the 19% that now identify with the PML-N. Young people are more likely to align with the PTI – 17% of 18-29 year olds compared with 8% of those age 50 or older.

Sharif, the leader of PML-N, is well-liked by 62% of Pakistanis. While still popular, Sharif’s reviews have slipped somewhat since 2008.

President Asif Ali Zardari, leader of the ruling PPP, continues to be very unpopular. Just 14% give him positive reviews, and more than eight-in-ten are negative. Zardari’s ratings have always been lower than Sharif’s, even in 2008, when Zardari ascended to office. While more than half (54%) of PPP supporters are favorable toward Zadari, a substantial minority is unfavorable (45%).

Former Prime Minister Gilani is viewed favorably by only 36% of Pakistanis. Gilani’s ratings dropped considerably in 2011, particularly after the U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden.

Other Political Leaders

General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the current Chief of Army Staff, continues to be fairly popular.

More than half (54%) of Pakistanis give him positive reviews, while the remainder are either unfavorable (26%) or unfamiliar (21%) with the army chief.

Similarly, Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry receives positive ratings from roughly half of the Pakistani public. About a quarter feel negatively toward him. Ratings of both Kayani and Chaudhry are unchanged since last year, but have slipped since 2010.

Pervez Musharraf, the former president who is under investigation for alleged involvement in the 2007 assassination of Benazir Bhutto, receives negative ratings. More than half are unfavorable, while roughly four-in-ten are favorable.

Attitudes toward Hina Ribbani Khar, the first woman to hold the position of Foreign Minister, are on balance negative. However, fully 43% of Pakistanis are unfamiliar with her.

Rating Institutions

The military remains the most highly rated institution in Pakistan – 77% say it has a good influence on the country, nearly the same percentage (79%) as last year. However, the military’s ratings have slipped somewhat from a high of 86% in 2009.

Large majorities also rate the influence of the media (68%) and religious leaders (66%) as good. In the past year, however, positive reviews of the media have declined eight percentage points.

Roughly six-in-ten give the court system high marks. The courts’ ratings have been relatively constant over the years, except for a dip in positive reviews in 2011.

As has been true in past surveys, few (24%) say the police are a good influence. Ratings of the national government are also very low – just 24% of Pakistanis believe it plays a positive role in the country.

President Zardari receives even more negative reviews. Only 12% believe he has a good influence, while 84% say it is bad. Pakistanis who identify with Zardari’s party, PPP, are more likely to give him high marks, though they are still divided – 44% say his influence is good, 48% say it is bad. Attitudes about Zardari are particularly negative in Punjab (96% bad influence) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (95%).

As Felipe Calderón’s term as Mexico’s president draws to a close, Mexicans continue to strongly back his policy of deploying the military to combat the country’s powerful drug cartels. Eight-in-ten say this is the right course, a level of support that has remained remarkably constant since the Pew Global Attitudes Project first asked the question in 2009.

Support for Calderón’s strategy continues despite limited confidence that the government is winning the drug war, and widespread concerns about its costs. Just 47% believe progress is being made against drug traffickers, virtually identical to the 45% who held this opinion in 2011. Three-in-ten today say the government is actually losing ground against the cartels, while 19% see no change in the stand-off between the authorities and crime syndicates.

At the same time, the public is uneasy about the moral cost of the drug war: 74% say human rights violations by the military and police are a very big problem. But concern about rights abuses coexist with continued worries about drug-related violence and crime – both of which strong majorities describe as pressing issues in Mexico.

President Calderón himself remains popular. A 58%-majority has a favorable opinion of Mexico’s current leader. Although down from a high of 68% in 2009, this rating nonetheless puts him on par with the 56% who have a positive view of the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s (PRI’s) Enrique Peña Nieto, whose ratings clearly topped those of his opponents when the poll was conducted between March 20 and April 2 of this year.

Whether Peña Nieto or any of the other presidential candidates have a solution to Mexico’s drug problems is an open question for the Mexican public. When asked which political party could do a better job of dealing with organized crime and drug traffickers, about equal numbers name Calderón’s National Action Party (PAN) (28%) and Peña Nieto’s PRI (25%), while only 13% point to the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Fully 23% volunteer that none of the parties is particularly capable of dealing with this critical issue.

These are the principal findings from the latest survey in Mexico by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Conducted face-to-face with 1,200 adults from across the country, the poll also finds that most Mexicans (61%) blame both the United States and their own country for the continued drug violence within their borders. While solid majorities would welcome U.S. assistance in combating the cartels if the aid came in the form of training, equipment or intelligence support, only a third would approve deploying U.S. troops on Mexican soil.

Overall, a majority (56%) of Mexicans have a favorable opinion of the United States, with about the same number (53%) convinced that Mexicans who migrate to the U.S. have a better life. Despite this perception, most Mexicans have no interest in migrating north across the border, although the percentage who say they would move to the U.S. if they had the means and opportunity has remained fairly steady since 2009.

Army Backed in Drug War

More than five years after President Calderón first ordered troops to take part in controlling drug-related violence, the public remains firmly behind the use of military units to combat drug cartels. Fully eight-in-ten say they support the use of the Mexican army in the drug war, little changed from opinion over the past several years.

Supporters of both the PAN (88%) and the PRI (84%) strongly endorse Calderón’s use of the military. Backers of the PRD are more skeptical, yet 66% still approve of the approach.

Support for Calderón’s anti-cartel strategy is widespread even though only 47% of Mexicans believe the government is making progress against the drug traffickers. Three-in-ten actually think the authorities are losing ground, while 19% essentially see a stalemate, with neither side gaining. This assessment of the drug war is virtually identical to views expressed last year.

Perhaps not surprisingly, backers of the ruling PAN are more enthusiastic about the government’s campaign against drug traffickers: 62% of them believe the authorities are making progress, compared with just 45% of PRI and 34% of PRD supporters.

When asked who is to blame for the drug violence in their country – Mexico or the United States – a majority of Mexicans (61%) say both countries bear responsibility. About one-in-five (22%) says the U.S. is mostly to blame, while 14% point to Mexico. The number of Mexicans blaming both countries is up 10 percentage points compared with 2009, when the question was first asked.

In order to combat the drug cartels, three-quarters of Mexicans would support the U.S. training Mexican police and military personnel. About six-in-ten (61%) would also approve of the U.S. providing money and weapons to the country’s police and military. However, there is much less enthusiasm for deploying U.S. troops within Mexico’s borders. Only a third would welcome such a move, while a 59% majority would oppose it.

Overall, attitudes toward U.S. assistance in the drug war are little changed from last year, although the percentage who would back the deployment of U.S. troops has fallen slightly, from 38% in 2011 to 33% today.

Support for U.S. assistance in the drug war tends to be higher among those who see the government succeeding, rather than failing, in its fight against the cartels. For example, 85% of Mexicans who see progress in the drug war back U.S. training of police and military personnel, compared with 68% among those who think the government is losing ground or stymied. Similarly, those who see success in the drug war are more like than those who do not to approve of the U.S. providing money and weapons (71% vs. 54%). Even on the issue of deploying U.S. troops, Mexicans who see progress against the cartels are much more supportive of such a measure than those who believe the government is not succeeding in the drug war (47% vs. 22%).

Negative Ratings for Country and Economy

Mexicans remain unhappy with their country’s direction, although the national mood has improved somewhat over the past year. Currently, 63% say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in Mexico – an improvement from 2011, when 76% were dissatisfied.

Similarly, while 62% describe the country’s economy as bad, this is a slight improvement from last year’s 68%, and is significantly lower than the 75% registered in 2010.

Regardless of these negative assessments, Mexicans are generally optimistic about the future – 51% say the economy will improve over the next 12 months. About a third (32%) believe things will stay the same and just 16% think the economy will worsen. These attitudes are virtually unchanged since last year.

Across all of these measures, Mexicans with higher incomes and better education are more likely to have a positive view of current conditions and to be optimistic about the country’s economic future. For example, almost half of higher-income Mexicans (46%) say the economy is good compared with just 23% of those with lower incomes.¹ Similarly, 43% of Mexicans with a post-secondary education rate the economy positively versus 25% of those with a primary education or less.

Crime and Drug Violence Top Concerns

Issues related to the ongoing drug war top the Mexican public’s list of concerns. Three-in-four say cartel-related violence is a very big problem for the country, while a roughly equal number say the same about human rights violations by the military and police. And 73% name crime as a very big problem.

Slightly smaller majorities point to corrupt political leaders, illegal drugs, and the economy as very big problems.

Roughly six-in-ten believe terrorism (62%) and pollution (58%) are very big problems, while only about half think people leaving Mexico for jobs or the poor quality of schools are top concerns.

Despite being relatively content with the overall situation in the country, Mexicans with higher incomes are more likely than others to see their country beset by problems. Specifically, wealthier Mexicans are at least 10 percentage points more likely than those with lower incomes to rate schools (+20), economic problems (+14), cartel-related violence (+10), illegal drugs (+10), human rights violations (+10) and crime (+10) as very big problems.

Given broad public concern about crime, it is perhaps unsurprising that more than half (56%) of Mexicans say they are afraid to walk alone at night within a kilometer of their home. This sentiment has increased slightly since 2007 (50%). Women (61%) are more likely to be afraid, though a sizeable percentage of men (51%) also express unease.

Calderón and Government Get Positive Marks

Felipe Calderón remains popular as he concludes his final months as president, with majorities expressing a favorable view of him personally and describing his influence on the country as positive. Ratings for the national government are also high, with roughly two-thirds (65%) saying it is having a good influence on the country’s direction.

Assessments of the national government’s impact have improved 11 percentage points since last spring, when 54% said it was having a good influence. Views of the government have particularly improved among middle-income Mexicans (+25 percentage points) and those living in the Mexico City area (+22).

Meanwhile, opinion of Calderón has slipped compared with the high marks he received in 2009. At that time, roughly two-thirds viewed him favorably (68%) compared to 58% in the latest survey, and three-quarters in 2009 thought he was having a good influence on the country compared to 57% now.

Calderón is especially trusted among people who say the Mexican government is making progress in the drug war (72% rate him a good influence) but less so among those who say the government is not making progress or losing ground (46%). Meanwhile, two-thirds of Mexicans living in the North and South regions say he is a good influence, but only about half from the Central and Mexico City areas say the same (53% and 47%, respectively).

Military, Media Viewed Favorably

In addition to the national government, the military is also seen in a favorable light, with nearly three-in-four (73%) saying it is having a good influence on the way things are going in the country. This represents a rebound from 2011, when 62% said the military was having a positive impact.

The media is also well-regarded: six-in-ten say television, radio, newspapers, and magazines are having a good influence on the country’s direction. Opinions of the media are unchanged from last year.

Views of the court system and police are not as positive. Less than half of Mexicans see the courts (44%) and the police (38%) as having a good influence on the way things are going in the country. A year ago, opinions of the courts and police were even more negative, with only about three-in-ten giving either institution a positive rating.

Views of Presidential Candidates

Of the three major presidential candidates, Mexicans are most positive about the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto. A 56%-majority has a favorable opinion of Peña Nieto, compared with 38% who see him unfavorably. The PAN’s Josefina Vazquez Mota and the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador are less popular, with only about a third expressing a favorable view of either candidate (36% and 34%, respectively). More than half express unfavorable views of López Obrador (60%) and Vazquez Mota (54%).

While Peña Nieto is broadly popular across Mexico, views of Vazquez Mota and López Obrador vary by region. Specifically, Vazquez Mota is seen more favorably in the North (47% favorable), while López Obrador has more support among Mexicans in the Mexico City region and the South (46% and 39% favorable respectively).

No Party Stands Out on Key Problems

The public is divided when asked which party could do a better job handling some of the most pressing issues facing Mexico. On unemployment, organized crime/drug traffickers, and corruption, the three main parties come out looking pretty much the same in the eyes of most Mexicans. And confidence is generally low across the board: 30% or fewer think any of the parties is better than the others on these issues.

Generally, those on the right of the ideological spectrum express greater confidence in the ability of both the PRI and PAN to deal with these major problems, while those on the left are inclined to trust the PRD.

U.S. Image Still Positive

A 56%-majority of Mexicans say they have a positive opinion of the U.S., while just 34% rate their northern neighbor unfavorably. America’s image has improved since the passage in 2010 of the highly publicized Arizona immigration law, but has yet to return to levels seen before the law’s enactment.

In 2010, the Arizona law had a measurable impact on opinion of the United States: prior to the law’s passage 62% of those interviewed expressed a favorable view of the U.S., compared with just 44% of those interviewed after the measure was enacted.

Today, younger Mexicans and those with higher education are more likely to be favorable toward the U.S. For example, 60% of 18-29 year-olds hold a positive view of the U.S., while just half of those age 50 and older say the same. Similarly, 66% of those with a post-secondary education are favorable versus just 48% of those with a primary education or less.

Better Life in the U.S.

More than half the public (53%) believe that Mexicans who move to the U.S. have a better life there. Just 14% say they have a worse life, while 28% believe life in the U.S. is neither better nor worse. Attitudes on this topic have shifted since last year, when there was a dip in the percentage who said life is better in the U.S.

Even though many believe life is better for those who emigrate to the U.S., most Mexicans (61%) say they would not move to the U.S., even if they had the means and opportunity to do so. Among the substantial minority who would move, half say they would emigrate without authorization (19% of the total population). These attitudes are unchanged since last year.

The young and highly educated are more likely to want to go to the U.S. Among 18-29 year-olds, 54% would like to move north, while just 37% of 30-49 year-olds and 25% of those age 50 and older say the same. Mexicans with a post-secondary education are 11 percentage points more likely to want to emigrate than those with the lowest level of education.

A sizeable minority of Mexicans know people who have returned to Mexico from the U.S., either for economic reasons or through deportation. Three-in-ten are personally familiar with someone who came back from the U.S. because they could not find a job. This percentage is down 10 points since 2009, during the depth of the U.S. recession. Similarly, 32% of Mexicans say they know someone who has been deported or detained by the U.S. government in the last 12 months.

After almost a month of Japan making do without nuclear energy, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda may have finally persuaded local communities that it is safe to restart two of the 50 reactors that have been idled in the wake of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Nonetheless, 70% of Japanese say their country should reduce its reliance on nuclear energy, in a poll conducted as the country’s last nuclear power stations went offline. This is a much larger number taking this position than in the weeks following last year’s nuclear meltdown at the quake and tsunami-damaged Fukushima Daiichi power plant.

Increased skepticism about nuclear power is coupled with widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s performance: eight-in-ten say the government has done a poor job dealing with the Fukushima crisis and six-in-ten disapprove of how Tokyo has handled the overall recovery from the earthquake and tsunami.

The intensity of the public’s frustration stands in sharp contrast with widespread hope last spring that Japan might succeed in turning tragedy into triumph. A year ago, 58% of Japanese believed the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami would actually make their country stronger. Today, only 39% share this view, while 47% say the twin disaster has actually weakened their nation.

Overall, the Japanese public is decidedly pessimistic about how things are going in their country. Fully 78% express dissatisfaction with the country’s direction, while an overwhelming 93% describe the current state of the economy as bad. Compared with last year, fewer expect the economic situation to worsen, but the prevailing view is that the economy will stagnate, rather than improve in the months ahead.

These are the principal findings from a survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted by telephone with 700 adults in Japan between March 20 and April 12, 2012. The poll also finds that only 12% of Japanese believe the national government is having a positive influence on the way things are going in the country – a plunge from 50% five years ago. Current prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, fares slightly better: 30% say he is having a positive impact on the country’s situation.

By contrast, 89% characterize the influence of the country’s Self Defense Force as good – up 22 percentage points since the same question was posed five years ago. Meanwhile, few among the Japanese public have praise for the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), which owns the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. An overwhelming 94% say the company is having a negative impact on the way things are going in Japan, and 88% disapprove of TEPCO’s handling of the situation at the Fukushima facility.

Concerns About Nuclear Power

The Japanese public is far more leery of nuclear power than it was in the immediate aftermath of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami that devastated Japan’s northeast coast and critically damaged the Fukushima Daiichi power plant.

A year ago, Japanese were divided over whether the use of nuclear power in Japan should be reduced (44%) or maintained at its current level (46%). Only 8% said reliance on nuclear power should be increased. Since then, the number who believe Japan should reduce its dependence on nuclear energy has surged to 70%, while support for maintaining nuclear power use at current levels has fallen to fewer than half that number (25%). Just 4% of Japanese say the country should expand the use of nuclear power.

Compared with last spring, the public’s fears about radiation exposure from the Fukushima disaster have eased somewhat. Roughly half (52%) now say they are worried that they or someone in their family may have been exposed to radiation, while 47% are unconcerned. In spring 2011, 59% were worried about radiation risks to their families, compared with 40% who were not.

Radiation risks are a much more prominent issue for people who live near the quake zone and the damaged Fukushima nuclear reactor: 62% of residents in these areas express concerns about radiation, compared with 45% of Japanese in other regions of the country.

Worries about radiation exposure also tend to be more pronounced among Japanese with lower incomes (67%); women (61%, compared with 42% of men); older people (62% of those age 60 or over); and those with no more than a high school education (58%, compared to 44% with a college degree).

Although general fears about radiation exposure have subsided somewhat, worries persist about the safety of foods produced near the Fukushima nuclear plant. Fully 76% of Japanese believe produce from the Fukushima area is not safe, while just 19% disagree. Worries about contaminated food are more prevalent among Japanese with at least some university education (84%) than those with a high school education or less (71%).

Frustration With Recovery Efforts

In the spring of 2011, most Japanese seemed confident that despite the destructive force of the March 11^th earthquake and tsunami their country would rally as a nation. Indeed, a majority (58%) predicted the twin disaster would actually make their country stronger. A year later, that sense of resilience has faded. Just 39% now believe Japan has been strengthened by the earthquake and tsunami, compared with 47% who say the disasters have weakened the country and 12% who believe the country has been unaffected.

The public is clearly dissatisfied with how the government has responded to the March 2011 crisis. Six-in-ten say they disapprove of how Tokyo has handled the overall recovery from the earthquake and tsunami, while only 37% voice approval.

Japanese citizens are especially frustrated with the government’s handling of the situation at the Fukushima nuclear plant: 80% disapprove of Tokyo’s response, while just 17% approve. Dissatisfaction with the government’s approach has grown from last spring, when reports first surfaced concerning radiation leaks at Fukushima. Then, a quarter approved of the government’s actions and 69% disapproved.

An overwhelming majority of Japanese (88%) also disapprove of how TEPCO has handled the crisis. Roughly one-in-ten (9%) think TEPCO has handled the situation well. Even among the minority of Japanese who believe the use of nuclear power should not be reduced, 86% disapprove of TEPCO’s response to the Fukushima crisis.

Pervasive Pessimism

Relatively few Japanese are upbeat about their country’s direction. Just one-in-five are satisfied with the way things are going in Japan, while nearly eight-in-ten (78%) are dissatisfied. The degree of dissatisfaction is up slightly from last year (72%), and is notably higher in areas near the quake zone (86%) than in the rest of the country (72%).

Assessments of the country’s direction are not helped by continuing disappointment in Japan’s national economy. Only a handful of Japanese (7%) describe the current economic situation as good, roughly on par with attitudes since 2008. Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority (93%) say the economy is in bad shape.

Last spring, when the country was reeling from the devastation caused by the earthquake and tsunami, 52% of Japanese predicted tougher economic times ahead. Today, fewer are as downbeat (33% say the economic situation will worsen over the coming year), but optimists are still a minority (16%). The prevailing view (49%) is that the economy won’t improve over the next 12 months.

Institutions and Leaders Poorly Rated

The Japanese public is generally negative toward key institutions and leaders within the country, likely reflecting disappointment with quake and tsunami recovery efforts and possibly also frustration with the flow of accurate information about the situation at the Fukushima power plant. Just 12% of Japanese say the national government is having a good influence on the way things are going in the country; 86% say it is having a bad influence. This is a significant shift from 2007, when the public was fairly divided on the issue (50% good influence vs. 44% bad influence).

Notably, supporters of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) are as lackluster in their praise of the government as backers of the opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), with 17% each saying good influence. Among both groups roughly eight-in-ten (83% and 82%, respectively) say the government is having a bad influence, although LDP supporters are more likely to say the government is having a very bad influence (29% vs. 15%). Among Japanese who support other parties, or no party at all, just 8% say the government is having a good influence on the way things are going in the country, compared with 91% who describe the government’s impact as bad (40% very, 51% somewhat).

TEPCO is also judged harshly by the public: only 4% say the company is having a good influence on the way things are going in the country, while 94% say it is having a negative impact.

On balance, fewer see the media – television, radio, newspapers and magazines –exerting a positive (34%) as opposed to negative influence (63%) on Japanese society. This assessment is nearly identical to views in 2007 (33% good vs. 64% bad), but much more negative than a decade ago when the public was evenly split on the issue (48% good vs. 48% bad).

The one institution that shines in the public’s eyes is the nation’s Self Defense Force. Almost nine-in-ten Japanese (89%) say the SDF is having a positive influence on the way things are going in the country; only about one-in-ten (9%) disagree. In 2007 and 2002, smaller majorities saw the SDF having a good influence (67% and 69%, respectively). The higher regard now for the SDF may be lingering positive sentiment about its involvement in earthquake and tsunami relief efforts last spring. At the time, 95% said the SDF had done a good job responding to the twin disaster.

The survey also asked about Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who took office in September 2011. Three-in-ten Japanese say the current head of government is having a positive influence on the way things are going in Japan, while two-thirds believe he is having a negative impact. Views of Noda generally divide along party lines: 48% among supporters of Noda’s DPJ say he is having a good influence, compared with just 28% of LDP backers and 23% of those who either identify with other parties or no party.

By Richard Wike, Associate Director, Pew Global Attitudes Project

On the eve of the first presidential election of the post-Mubarak era, Egyptians remain hopeful about the future of their country, and they strongly desire both an improved economy and the democratic freedoms they were denied under the previous regime.

A recent survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project found that 52% of Egyptians are optimistic about the future, while just 18% are pessimistic. And 53% are satisfied with the direction of the country, down slightly from 65% in a 2011 poll conducted shortly after the fall of Mubarak, but still considerably higher than the 28% registered in 2010, during the final year of the autocrat’s three decades in power.

As Egyptians head to the polls, the economy is their biggest concern, according to the Pew survey conducted March 19 to April 10. Roughly eight-in-ten (81%) consider improving the economy a very important priority for the country. Only 27% describe the current economic situation as good. And regardless of which candidate wins the presidency, he will face high economic expectations – 50% think the economy will improve in the next 12 months; just 20% say it will get worse.

While growing the economy is clearly a top priority for Egyptians, so is democracy. In fact, when asked which is more important, a strong economy or a good democracy, the public is divided: 49% say the former and 48% the latter.

And despite a tumultuous and often difficult year, support for democracy has not ebbed. Two-in-three Egyptians (67%) believe democracy is the best form of government, basically unchanged from 71% in 2011.

Moreover, Egyptians do not just voice support for democracy in a general sense – they also want specific democratic rights and institutions. In particular, they want a fair judiciary: 81% consider it is very important to live in a country with a judicial system that treats everyone in the same way. About six-in-ten say it is very important to live in a country with a free press (62%); free speech (60%); and honest, competitive elections with at least two political parties (58%). In addition to these fundamental components of democracy, Egyptians also want order: 60% rate law and order as very important.

Meanwhile, civilian control of the military is considered a relatively low priority, as just 24% think this is very important. Overall, the military continues to receive positive marks. Three-in-four say it is having a good influence on the country and 63% express a favorable view of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which has led the country throughout the transition period. And while ratings for SCAF Chairman Mohamed Tantawi have fallen from last year’s sky-high 90%, he is still viewed favorably by 63% of Egyptians.

For more, see Egyptians Remain Optimistic, Embrace Democracy and Religion in Political Life.

Despite economic difficulties and political uncertainty, Egyptians remain upbeat about the course of the nation and prospects for progress. Amid rancorous debates over the presidential election and the shape of a new constitution, most Egyptians continue to want democracy, with two-in-three saying it is the best form of government.

Egyptians also want Islam to play a major role in society, and most believe the Quran should shape the country’s laws, although a growing minority expresses reservations about the increasing influence of Islam in politics. When asked which country is the better model for the role of religion in government, Turkey or Saudi Arabia, 61% say the latter. However, most also endorse specific democratic rights and institutions that do not exist in Saudi Arabia, such as free speech, a free press, and equal rights for women.

Seven-in-ten Egyptians express a favorable view of the Muslim Brotherhood, down just slightly from 75% a year ago. Most (56%) also have a positive opinion of the Brotherhood-affiliated Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), the largest party in the newly elected parliament. The more conservative al-Nour fares less well: 44% have a favorable and 44% an unfavorable view of the Salafist party. Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, a Salafist leader who was recently disqualified as a presidential candidate, gets somewhat better ratings (52% positive, 42% negative).

Presidential contender Amr Moussa receives overwhelmingly positive marks, with 81% expressing a positive opinion of the former Foreign Minister and Arab League chief. Meanwhile, 58% have a favorable view of moderate Islamist presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh.

The April 6^th Movement, a loose organization of mostly young and secular activists that played a key role in the demonstrations that forced Hosni Mubarak from office, is rated favorably by 68% of Egyptians. However, the Egyptian Bloc, a mostly secular coalition of political parties, is not popular – just 38% assign it a positive rating.

While many have criticized the military in recent months for its handling of the post-Mubarak transition, it continues to be largely well-regarded. Three-in-four Egyptians believe the military is having a good influence on the country, and 63% hold a positive opinion of the ruling Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF). And while favorable ratings for SCAF Chairman Mohamed Tantawi have declined significantly from last year’s 90%, they remain high at 63%.

Most Egyptians support civilian control of the military, but other key institutional features of democracy are considered higher priorities. Roughly six-in-ten (62%) say civilian control is an important priority, but only 24% consider it very important, essentially unchanged from 27% in 2011. In contrast, 81% believe a fair judiciary is very important, similar to last year’s 82%. Views toward other key democratic rights and institutions also show little change since last year.

These are among the principal findings from a nationwide survey of Egypt by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 1,000 adults in Egypt between March 19 and April 10, 2012. The poll finds little change in Egyptian perceptions of the United States. Only 19% offer a positive rating of the U.S. and just 29% express confidence in President Obama. The survey also finds ongoing opposition to the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel: 61% prefer to annul the treaty, up from 54% a year ago.

Desire for Democracy, But Also Order and Growth

Egyptians continue to voice confidence in democracy. Two-thirds consider it preferable to any other kind of government, while just 19% say in some circumstances a non-democratic form of government may be best, and just 13% believe it doesn’t really matter what kind of government rules the country. Roughly six-in-ten (61%) think democracy is best-suited for solving the country’s problems, while only 33% say a leader with a strong hand would be better equipped for dealing with these challenges.

At the same time, it is clear that Egyptians also want law and order: six-in-ten consider this a very important priority. And the economy remains a major concern. About eight-in-ten (81%) say improving economic conditions should be a top priority. Just 27% describe the country’s economic situation as good, down from 34% in 2011. Still, on balance, Egyptians remain optimistic about their economic future: 50% expect the economy to improve over the next 12 months, only 20% think it will worsen, and 28% believe it will stay about the same.

A growing number of Egyptians sees Islam as playing a major role in the political life of the country – 66% currently compared with 47% in 2010. For the most part, those who believe Islam is playing a large role see this as good for the country, but more disagree with that view this year than last. Conflicting views about the role of religion in politics are also seen in the significant numbers who say Saudi Arabia is the best model for Egypt, yet endorse key features of democracy. Among those who choose Saudi Arabia over Turkey as the best model for Egypt, two-thirds also say democracy is preferable to any other kind of government. More than six-in-ten say it is very important to live in a country with a free press (64%), honest multiparty elections (63%), and freedom of speech (61%).

U.S. Image Still Negative

America’s image remains overwhelmingly negative – only 19% offer a favorable opinion of the U.S., basically unchanged from 20% in 2011. But a large majority does not see the U.S. as having a major influence on political developments in Egypt.

Egyptian opinions about President Obama have grown steadily more negative over the course of his presidency. In a 2009 poll conducted a few months after he took office, Egyptians were divided over the new American president: 42% expressed a great deal or some confidence that he would do the right thing in world affairs; 47% said they had little or no confidence.¹ Today, 29% have confidence in Obama, while 69% lack confidence.

Although the U.S. has sent billions of dollars in aid to Egypt over the last few decades, few believe it is helping the country. Indeed, roughly six-in-ten say both American military and economic aid are having a mostly negative impact on Egypt.

Despite these negative sentiments, a majority of Egyptians says either they want the U.S.-Egypt relationship to stay about as close as it has been in recent years (35%) or become even closer (20%), while 38% would like to see relations become less close.

Overall, Egyptians believe the U.S. exerts a limited influence on their country’s tumultuous politics. When asked whether the American response to Egypt’s political situation is having a positive or negative impact, 62% say it is having neither.

Moreover, few believe there is a hidden Western hand behind the country’s ongoing protests. Just 21% say the demonstrations are a result of Western efforts to destabilize Egypt, while 74% think the protests reflect genuine Egyptian discontent with the country’s political situation.

Also of Note

• Six-in-ten say the People’s Assembly, Egypt’s newly elected lower house of parliament, is having a positive influence on the country, while 39% believe it is having a negative effect.
• Four-in-ten believe that under an FJP-led government women will have more rights than they had in the past, while 27% say they will have fewer rights. Roughly three-in-ten (31%) think women will have about the same rights as in the past.
• Views toward one-time presidential hopeful Mohamed ElBaradei have soured. In 2011, 57% held a positive view of the former International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) chief, while just 39% rated him negatively. Now opinions are divided: 48% favorable, 50% unfavorable.
• Fayza Abul Naga, the Egyptian Cabinet official who led efforts to prosecute American NGO representatives (as well as representatives from Egyptian and other foreign NGOs) enjoys little popularity. Abul Naga, who is a holdover from the Mubarak era, receives a favorable rating from 35% of Egyptians, while 50% offer a negative assessment.

Democracy Is a Priority, But So Is Economy

Two-thirds of Egyptians believe democracy is preferable to any other type of government. Just 19% say in some circumstances, a non-democratic form of government may be preferable, while 13% say that, for someone like them, it does not matter what kind of government Egypt has.

This is basically unchanged from last year, when 71% said democracy was the best form of government. Confidence in democracy is somewhat higher now than in 2010, when six-in-ten Egyptians said it was preferable to other political systems.

Most continue to believe a democratic government, rather than a strong leader, is best equipped to deal with the country’s problems. Roughly six-in-ten (61%) hold this view, similar to last year’s 64%, but significantly higher than the 50% registered in 2007.

Opinions are divided, however, when Egyptians are asked to choose between democracy and the economy. About half (48%) say a good democracy is more important and about half (49%) say a strong economy should be the priority. Results on this question were almost exactly the same one year ago.

Most Value Specific Democratic Rights, Institutions

Egyptians believe many key features of democracy are crucial to their country’s future. Roughly eight-in-ten (81%) say it is very important to live in a country with a fair judicial system, and solid majorities rate a free press (62%), free speech (60%), and honest multiparty elections (58%) as very important.

Other key democratic rights and institutions, while considered at least somewhat important by a majority of Egyptians, do not register as top priorities. In particular, only 24% say that having a military that is under control of civilian leaders is very important. Less than half say that equal rights for women (41%), religious freedom for minorities (38%), and uncensored internet access (35%) are very important.

And while most Egyptians value democracy, it is clear that the economy and social order also rank as high priorities. About eight-in-ten (81%) believe improved economic conditions are very important and 60% say this about law and order.

While the military’s ratings may have dropped somewhat since 2011, a majority of Egyptians continues to hold a positive view of the military, the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), and SCAF’s Chairman Mohamed Tantawi.

The Muslim Brotherhood also continues to be highly regarded. Opinions toward other religious groups and leaders, however, are mixed. The Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), the political party affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, and Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a moderate Islamist who broke with the Muslim Brotherhood to run for president, are slightly less well-reviewed. Egyptians are less favorable toward more conservative religious parties and leaders, such as al-Nour and Hazem Salah Abu Ismail.

Amr Moussa, prior Secretary General of the Arab League and a former foreign minister under Mubarak, is the most popular among the political leaders asked about in the survey. Other secular leaders and groups do not fare as well. Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the IAEA and an important figure in the protests against Mubarak, has dropped somewhat in favorability since 2011. The Egyptian Bloc, a coalition of liberal and secular political parties, is also rated negatively.

Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Fayza Abul Naga, who was instrumental in the recent investigation of American non-governmental organizations operating in Egypt, receives poor ratings.

Political institutions, such as the court system and the People’s Assembly, receive mostly positive reviews for their influence on the country. The local police, however, are generally viewed negatively.

Rating Institutions

Religious leaders and the military continue to be the most highly-rated groups in Egypt. About eight-in-ten (83%) Egyptians say religious leaders have a very or somewhat good influence on the country, including 36% who say their influence is very good.

Despite the considerable political turmoil that has surrounded the military over the past year, a broad majority (75%) of Egyptians continues to say it has a good influence, including 43% who say very good. While ratings for the military remain high, positive ratings have fallen by 13 points since 2011. The drop has been especially large among women and lower-income respondents. In 2011, 58% of women said the military’s influence was very good; today, only 38% say the same. Among lower-income Egyptians, the change was from 69% saying very good in 2011 to 46% now.

The media – such as television, radio, newspapers, and magazines – receives high marks from all sectors of Egyptian society, with 70% of the public expressing a positive assessment.

Other institutions that do well are the court system, the People’s Assembly, and the Central Security Forces. The court system is rated positively by 61% of Egyptians, falling somewhat from 67% in 2011. Similarly, about six-in-ten believe the People’s Assembly (60%) and the Central Security Forces (63%), a national law enforcement organization, have a very or somewhat good influence.

Opinions about the local police are much more negative. Just over a third (37%) of Egyptians views the local police as having a good influence, while a majority (62%) rates it as very or somewhat bad, including 35% who say very bad.

Rating Political Groups and Parties

The Muslim Brotherhood and April 6 Movement – two key groups involved in last year’s Tahrir Square demonstrations – continue to be viewed favorably, as they were right after the uprising in 2011. About seven-in-ten Egyptians rate both groups positively, including almost a third who give both groups a very favorable rating.

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces is also well-regarded by a majority, despite recent concerns that SCAF will not hand over power to a democratically-elected president next month. About six-in-ten (63%) Egyptians have a positive attitude toward SCAF, including 20% very favorable.

Among the major political parties included on the survey, the Freedom and Justice Party and al-Wafd Party, a secular party which has held legal status since 1978, receive the highest ratings. The FJP is reviewed positively by 56% of Egyptians and 52% are favorable toward al-Wafd.

Egyptians are divided on both al-Wasat Party, a group that broke away from the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1990’s, and al-Nour Party, the largest party associated with the conservative Salafists. Just under half (46%) rate al-Wasat positively and a similar percentage (48%) rates them negatively. Equal percentages (44%) are favorable and unfavorable toward al-Nour.

The liberal, secular Egyptian Bloc is the least popular of the major political groups that hold seats in the People’s Assembly. About four-in-ten (38%) Egyptians hold favorable opinions of the Egyptian Bloc and nearly half (47%) are unfavorable.

Since Mubarak left office in 2011, there has been considerable political conflict between the Freedom and Justice Party, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, and the
Egyptian Bloc. Despite this conflict at the elite level, the supporters of these various groups among the public do not exhibit the same level of polarization. Instead, people who are favorable toward one of these organizations tend to also view the other groups positively. For example, among those who rate the Egyptian Bloc favorably, over half also rate the FJP (54%) and SCAF (70%) positively. Among those who are favorable toward the FJP, 80% are favorable toward SCAF. And among SCAF supporters, 72% are positive toward the FJP. These patterns suggest the general public is not yet making strong distinctions between the leading political groups.

Rating Political Leaders

Current presidential candidate Amr Moussa is very popular with the Egyptian public: 81% give him favorable ratings, down only slightly from 89% in 2011.

Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi is also well-regarded by a majority (63%) of Egyptians, although his favorability rating has fallen from last year’s 90%. The decline has been especially steep among women: 59% express a positive view of him now, compared with 92% a year ago.

Ayman Nour, founder of the liberal al-Ghad party and a critic of SCAF, receives high marks from 61% of Egyptians. Similarly, about six-in-ten (58%) rate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh positively.

The public expresses less favorable opinions about both Hazem Salah Abu Ismail and Mohamed ElBaradei. Abu Ismail, a conservative Salafist presidential candidate who was recently disqualified from the race, receives favorable reviews from 52% of Egyptians and unfavorable reviews from 42%.

ElBaradei’s favorable ratings have slipped somewhat from 57% in 2011 to 48% today. Support for ElBaradei has dropped the most among younger people – his strongest supporters in 2011 (65% favorable) are now his weakest (46% favorable).

Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Fayza Abul Naga is the least popular among the political leaders included on the survey. Just over a third (35%) of Egyptians are favorable toward Abul Naga, while half (50%) are unfavorable and 15% offer no opinion.

As the death toll continues to rise in Mexico’s drug war, now claiming more than 35,000 lives since President Felipe Calderón took office in December 2006, fewer than half (45%) of Mexicans say their government is making progress in its campaign against drug cartels; 29% say the government is losing ground and 25% say things are about the same as they have been in the past.

Still, an overwhelming majority (83%) continues to endorse the use of the Mexican army to fight drug traffickers, virtually unchanged in recent years. Moreover, many welcome U.S. help in training Mexican police and military personnel (74%) and providing money and weapons to Mexican police and military forces (64%).

And while Mexicans broadly oppose the deployment of U.S. troops to combat drug traffickers in Mexico (38% support and 57% oppose), more now support this strategy than did so in 2010, when only about a quarter (26%) favored the deployment of U.S. troops in their country and two-thirds opposed it.

The survey of Mexico conducted by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project between March 22 and April 7 also finds that illegal drugs and cartel-related violence rank among the top national problems facing Mexico; 71% say illegal drugs are a very big problem in their country and even more (77%) see the violence associated with drug cartels as a major challenge.

Concerns about illegal drugs and cartel-related violence are especially widespread in the North, where Mexico’s cartels have been especially active. Nearly nine-in-ten (87%) in North Mexico say illegal drugs are a very big problem in their country, compared with 69% in the South and in the Greater Mexico City area and 63% in Central Mexico. Similarly, 94% in the North see the violence associated with drug cartels as a very big problem; 75% in Mexico City, 73% in the South and 69% in Central Mexico share this concern.

When asked who is most to blame for the drug violence in their country, more now say both Mexico and the U.S. are to blame than did so in recent surveys. About six-in-ten (61%) Mexicans blame both nations; 51% held this view in 2009 and 2010. Currently, 18% say the U.S. is mostly to blame and about the same percentage (16%) blame Mexico; a year ago, nearly twice as many said the U.S. was mostly to blame as named Mexico (27% vs. 14%).

U.S. Image Positive

The image of the U.S. has rebounded somewhat since the passage of Arizona’s controversial immigration bill in April 2010, but it remains far more negative than it was prior to the law’s enactment. Currently, a slim majority (52%) of Mexicans hold a favorable view of the U.S., while 41% express a negative opinion.

A year ago, 56% had a favorable view of the U.S., but those who were interviewed before Gov. Jan Brewer signed the Arizona measure into law on April 23, 2010, offered far more positive opinions than those interviewed following the law’s enactment; 62% of those interviewed April 14-20, 2010 rated the U.S. favorably, compared with just 44% of those interviewed May 1-6, 2010. In 2009, nearly seven-in-ten Mexicans (69%) expressed a positive attitude toward the U.S.

Fewer See a Better Life in U.S.

Mexicans are less likely than they were two years ago to say that people from their country who move to the U.S. have a better life than those who stay in Mexico. Fewer than half (44%) now say this is the case; 22% say life is worse in the U.S. and 29% say it is neither better nor worse. In 2009, nearly six-in-ten (57%) said people who moved to the U.S. from Mexico enjoyed a better life in the host country, while 14% believe life was worse for those who moved to the U.S. and 22% said it was neither better nor worse.

As was the case in 2009, most Mexicans (61%) say they would not move to the U.S. if they had the means and opportunity to do so. Among the sizeable minority (38%) who would move to the U.S. if they could, 53% (or, 20% of the total population) say they would be inclined to do so without authorization. (For a more detailed analysis of Mexican immigration patterns, see “The Mexican American Boom: Births Overtake Immigration,” Pew Hispanic Center, released July 14, 2011.)

Younger respondents are more likely than older ones to say they would move to the U.S. Slightly more than half (52%) of those younger than age 30 say they would move if they had the means and opportunity to do so, including 28% who say they would be inclined to work and live in the U.S. without authorization. In contrast, just 36% of those ages 30 to 49 and 27% of those 50 and older say they would move to the U.S. (20% and 11%, respectively, say they would do so without authorization).

Most Unhappy With Country’s Direction

After shrinking in 2009, during the global recession, Mexico’s economy rebounded impressively in 2010 – growing at its fastest rate in a decade. Still, an overwhelming majority of Mexicans remain dissatisfied with economic conditions and with their nation’s direction overall. Roughly three-quarters (76%) say they are unhappy with the way things are going in their country, little changed from assessments in 2009 and 2010. Dissatisfaction with the country’s direction is common across the different regions of Mexico and cuts across income and educational levels.

Discontent with current economic conditions is similarly widespread with about two-thirds (68%) describing the economy as poor, down slightly from 75% in 2010; just 30% say the economic situation in Mexico is good.

Looking ahead, Mexicans are no more optimistic than they were a year ago about their country’s economic prospects. Roughly half (48%) believe the economy will improve over the next 12 months, while 29% think it will remain the same and 22% say it will worsen, virtually unchanged from 2010. In 2009, however, as the effects of the global recession and the faltering U.S. economy were beginning to be felt, Mexicans were actually more optimistic, with 61% saying economic conditions would improve in the coming year.

Crime and Drug-Related Violence Top Concerns

As noted earlier, among the challenges confronting their country, Mexicans most frequently name crime (80%) and cartel-related violence (77%) as very big problems. Roughly seven-in-ten (71%) see illegal drugs in the same light. Most (69%) also describe economic problems as a major challenge. Indeed, when asked specifically about rising prices and lack of job opportunities, majorities (74% and 70%, respectively) say these are very big problems in Mexico today. Slightly smaller numbers place corruption (65%) and terrorism (62%) in this category, while fewer than six-in-ten (56%) characterize pollution as a very big problem. Just half say people leaving the country for jobs elsewhere is a major issue.

While crime and cartel-related violence rate as major challenges among all Mexicans, those with lower incomes are especially concerned about terrorism, with more than seven-in-ten (73%) among this group describing terrorism as a very big problem.¹ Only 54% of middle-income and 49% of higher-income Mexicans see terrorism in the same light.

Despite the economy not topping the public’s list of major challenges, when asked separately about rising prices and lack of job opportunities, strong majorities (74% and 70%, respectively) say these are very big problems in Mexico today.

Not surprisingly, given the high levels of concern about crime and cartel-related violence, Mexicans by a 58%-to-26% margin say it is more important for the government to try to maintain law and order than to protect people’s personal freedoms. About one-in-seven (15%) volunteer that the government should give equal weight to both. Compared with two years ago, the number of Mexicans who think personal freedoms should take precedent over law and order has increased eight percentage points, rising from 18% in spring 2009.

Supporters of President Calderón’s PAN tend to be more insistent that law and order should be the government’s top priority. Roughly seven-in-ten (71%) PAN supporters say it is more important for the authorities to maintain law and order than to protect personal freedoms; only 52% of those who back the opposition PRI agree with this view.

Views of Calderón and the National Government

Despite overwhelming concerns about crime and drug-related violence and negative assessments of the country’s economy and overall direction, most Mexicans continue to say that President Calderón and the national government are having a positive impact on the country. Nearly six-in-ten (57%) say the president’s influence is good, while 39% describe it as bad; 54% give the national government a positive rating, while 41% say the government is having a negative influence.

Compared with two years ago, however, views of Calderón and the government have become increasingly negative. In 2009, three-quarters said Calderón was having a positive influence and 72% said the same about the national government; just 22% and 26% gave the president and the government, respectively, a negative rating.

Views of the national government are tied, at least in part, to opinions about the government’s handling of drug traffickers; a solid majority (63%) of those saying the Mexican government is making progress against drug traffickers describe the national government’s influence as good, compared with 47% of those who say the government is losing ground and 46% of those who say things are about the same as they have been in the past.

Military and Media Receive Positive Ratings

Most Mexicans say the military and the media are having a very or somewhat good influence on the way things are going in Mexico (62% and 60%, respectively) In contrast, only about three-in-ten say the court system (32%) and the police (30%) are having a positive influence.

While the military remains popular, the percentage saying it is having a good influence has declined by double digits, from 77% in 2009. Ratings for the media have also declined over the last two years, though not as dramatically; 68% said the media was having a good influence on the way things were going in Mexico in 2009. In 2002, when the question was first asked, 84% of Mexicans saw the media’s influence as positive.

Rating Political Leaders

A slim majority (55%) of Mexicans have a favorable opinion of President Felipe Calderón, while 42% express an unfavorable opinion; in 2009, about two-thirds (68%) had a positive view of the president. Gustavo Madero Muñoz, the president of Calderón’s PAN party, receives negative ratings on balance, with nearly four-in-ten (39%) expressing an unfavorable opinion, 18% voicing a favorable opinion and 43% of respondents not offering an opinion of the current president of the PAN party.

Enrique Peña Nieto, current governor of the State of Mexico and potential presidential candidate for the PRI, is viewed favorably by about six-in-ten (61%) Mexicans, while only 31% express an unfavorable view of him. Majorities across all demographic groups offer a positive opinion, with especially high ratings among those who identify with the PRI (80% favorable). Beatriz Paredes Rangel, former president of the PRI, receives more mixed ratings; 43% of Mexicans voice a favorable opinion of her and 38% offer an unfavorable view.

Marcelo Ebrard, current mayor of Mexico City and a member of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), is seen favorably by 35% of Mexicans, while nearly half (46%) have an unfavorable view of him. Ebrard is viewed most warmly by residents of Mexico City; 56% have a favorable view, compared with about three-in-ten in North (32%) and Central (31%) Mexico and 26% in the South.

Fellow PRD member Andrés Manuel López Obrador has the highest unfavorable ratings of the politicians tested, with over six-in-ten (62%) voicing an unfavorable opinion of the 2006 presidential election runner-up and one-third expressing a positive view. Views of Jesus Ortega Martinez, president of the PRD, are also negative, on balance (22% favorable vs. 45% unfavorable); one-third of Mexicans do not offer an opinion. Favorable ratings for Martinez have declined 15 percentage points since 2009, when nearly four-in-ten (37%) Mexicans offered a favorable view of the PRD leader.

In most regions of the world, opinion of the United States continues to be more favorable than it was in the Bush years, but U.S. image now faces a new challenge: doubts about America’s superpower status. In 15 of 22 nations, the balance of opinion is that China either will replace or already has replaced the United States as the world’s leading superpower. This view is especially widespread in Western Europe, where at least six-in-ten in France (72%), Spain (67%), Britain (65%) and Germany (61%) see China overtaking the U.S.

Majorities in Pakistan, the Palestinian territories, Mexico and China itself also foresee China supplanting the U.S. as the world’s dominant power. In most countries for which there are trends, the view that China will overtake the U.S. has increased substantially over the past two years, including by 10 or more percentage points in Spain, France, Pakistan, Britain, Jordan, Israel, Poland and Germany. Among Americans, the percentage saying that China will eventually overshadow or has already overshadowed the U.S. has increased from 33% in 2009 to 46% in 2011.

At least some of this changed view of the global balance of power may reflect the fact that the U.S. is increasingly seen as trailing China economically. This is especially the case in Western Europe, where the percentage naming China as the top economic power has increased by double digits in Spain, Germany, Britain and France since 2009.

In other parts of the globe, fewer are convinced that China is the world’s leading economic power. Majorities or pluralities in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America still name the U.S. as the world’s dominant economic power. In the Middle East, Palestinians and Israelis agree that America continues to sit atop the global economy, while in Jordan and Lebanon more see China in this role. Notably, by an almost 2-to-1 margin the Chinese still believe the U.S. is the world’s dominant economic power.

These are among the key findings from a survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted March 18 to May 15.¹  The survey also finds that, in the U.S., France, Germany, Spain and Japan, those who see China as the world’s leading economic power believe this is a bad thing. By contrast, those who name the U.S. tend to think it is good that America is still the top global economy. In developing countries those who believe China has already overtaken the U.S. economically generally view this as a positive development. Meanwhile, in China, those who believe the U.S. is still the world’s leading economy tend to see this as a negative.

Compared with reaction to China’s economic rise, global opinion is more consistently negative when it comes to the prospect of China equaling the U.S. militarily. Besides the Chinese themselves, only in Pakistan, Jordan, the Palestinian territories and Kenya do majorities see an upside to China matching the U.S. in terms of military power. Meanwhile, the prevailing view in Japan and India is that it would not be in their country’s interest if China were to equal the U.S. militarily; majorities across Western and Eastern Europe, and in Turkey and Israel, share this view.

U.S. Image Largely Favorable

Despite the view in many countries that China either has or will surpass the U.S. as the leading superpower, opinion of America remains favorable, on balance. The median percentage offering a positive assessment of the U.S. is 60% among the 23 countries surveyed. The U.S. receives high marks in Western Europe, where at least six-in-ten in

France, Spain, Germany and Britain rate the U.S. positively. Opinion of the U.S. is also consistently favorable across Eastern Europe, as well as in Japan, Kenya, Israel, Brazil and Mexico.

As in years past, U.S. image continues to suffer among predominantly Muslim countries, with the exception of Indonesia, where a majority expresses positive views of the U.S. One-in-five or fewer in Egypt, the Palestinian territories, Jordan, Pakistan and Turkey view America favorably. In Lebanon, opinion of the U.S. is split, reflecting a religious and sectarian divide; the country’s Shia community has overwhelmingly negative views of America, while Lebanese Sunnis and Christians are more positive.

Views of the U.S. in the Muslim world reflect, at least in part, opposition to the war in Afghanistan and U.S. efforts to fight terrorism. Moreover, few in predominantly Muslim countries say the U.S. takes a multilateral approach to foreign policy. Fewer than a quarter in Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey say the U.S. takes the interests of countries like theirs into account when making foreign policy decisions

In Western Europe, fewer than half in Britain (40%), France (32%) and Spain (19%) say the U.S. takes the interests of other countries into account when making foreign policy decisions. Only in Germany does a majority feel otherwise. In Eastern Europe, a third or less believe America acts multilaterally.

Interestingly, a majority of Chinese (57%) credit America with considering the interests of other nations, although last year more (76%) held this view. Elsewhere, majorities in Israel, India, Japan, Brazil and Kenya describe the U.S. as multilateral in its approach to foreign policy.

Majorities or pluralities in nearly every country surveyed say the U.S. and NATO should remove their troops from Afghanistan as soon as possible; the only exceptions are Spain, Israel, India, Japan and Kenya, where more say troops should remain in that country until the situation is stabilized than say they should be removed. However, in many parts of the world, there is strong support for the broader, American-led effort to combat terrorism. About seven-in-ten in France (71%), two-thirds in Germany, 59% in Britain and 58% in Spain back U.S. anti-terrorism efforts. Majorities in Eastern Europe also support the U.S.-led fight against terrorism, as do most in Israel and Kenya.

U.S. Viewed More Favorably Than China

Across the nations surveyed, the U.S. generally receives more favorable marks than China: the median percentage rating China favorably is 52%, eight points lower than the median percentage offering a positive assessment of the U.S.

However, the number of people expressing positive views of China has grown in a number of countries, including the four Western European countries surveyed. China’s image has also improved in Indonesia, Japan, Egypt and Poland. Opinion of China has worsened substantially in only two countries surveyed: Kenya (down 15 percentage points from last year) and Jordan (9 points lower than in 2010).

U.S. image, meanwhile, has declined in most countries for which there are trends. Compared with last year, favorable views of America are lower in Kenya (11 percentage points), Jordan (8 points), Turkey (7 points), Indonesia (5 points), Pakistan (5 points), Mexico (4 points), Poland (4 points) and Britain (4 points). However, the largest downward shift has occurred in China, where the number expressing a positive view of the U.S. has fallen 14 points – from 58% in 2010 to 44% today.

In Japan, by contrast, opinion of the U.S. has improved dramatically. A year ago, roughly two-thirds (66%) held a favorable view of America; today, more than eight-in-ten (85%) assess the U.S. favorably. This huge boost in U.S. image is attributable in part to America’s role in helping Japan respond to the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck the island nation’s northeast coast in March. A majority (57%) of Japanese say the U.S. has done a great deal to assist their country in responding to this dual disaste

Views of Obama

Assessments of President Obama track fairly closely with overall U.S. ratings. Obama is viewed most positively in Western Europe, where solid majorities say they have confidence in the U.S. president to do the right thing when it comes to world affairs. At least two-thirds in Kenya, Japan and Lithuania also express confidence in Obama, as do smaller majorities in Brazil, Indonesia and Poland.

As is the case with the overall U.S. image, Obama receives his most negative ratings among predominantly Muslim countries. In the Arab world, majorities in the Palestinian territories (84%), Jordan (68%), Egypt (64%) and Lebanon (57%) lack confidence in the president. Roughly seven-in-ten in Turkey (73%) and Pakistan (68%) say the same. Indonesians are the exception, with 62% saying they have confidence in Obama to do the right thing in world affairs.

Overall, the U.S. president continues to inspire more confidence than any of the other world leaders tested in the survey. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is next most trusted, at least in Europe and Israel. Majorities across Western Europe endorse the German leader’s handling of world affairs, as do most in Eastern Europe. In fact, in Russia and Ukraine she is more trusted than Obama; this is also the case in Israel.

Broad trust in Obama’s leadership does not mean foreign publics necessarily agree with the U.S. president’s policies. For example, in nearly every nation surveyed majorities or pluralities disapprove of Obama’s handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Many also disapprove of Obama’s handling of Iran and Afghanistan, while reactions to the way he has dealt with the recent calls for political change in the Middle East are mixed.

In general, Obama receives his highest marks for his handling of global economic problems. Majorities across Western Europe, for example, endorse Obama’s approach to economic issues, with the highest approval (68%) found in Germany. Large numbers in Kenya, Japan, Indonesia, Brazil and Lithuania also approve of how the U.S. president is dealing with the challenges facing the global economy.

Reactions to China’s Growing Power

Across the globe, public reactions to China’s growing economy are far more positive than opinions about the country’s growing military power. Positive assessments of China’s growing economy are most widespread in the Middle East, where majorities in the Arab countries surveyed, as well as Israel, agree that China’s economic growth benefits their country.

Most in Kenya, Pakistan, Indonesia, Japan, Britain, Brazil and Spain also say China’s growing economy is good for their country. Within Asia, only Indians offer negative views, with just 29% describing an expanding Chinese economy as a good thing and 40% saying it is a bad thing for their country.

When China’s emerging power is framed in military terms, publics in most surveyed nations react less favorably. Majorities or pluralities in all but four of the nations surveyed say China’s increasing military might is a bad thing for their country. This is especially the case in Japan, the U.S., Western Europe and Russia, where at least seven-in-ten have negative views of China’s growing military power.

In contrast, about seven-in-ten Pakistanis (72%) see China’s growing military might as a good thing for their country, as do 62% of Kenyans and Palestinians. Indonesians, by a slim margin (44% to 36%), concur with this view.

Economic Concerns

Opinions as to whether the U.S. or China is the world’s leading economic power, and whether China will supplant America as the dominant superpower, are taking shape against a backdrop of widespread uncertainty about the future and unhappiness with economic conditions at home. In most of the nations surveyed, people say their country’s economy is in bad shape and express dissatisfaction with the way things are going in their country. Moreover, few expect economic conditions to improve in the next year.

Frustration is especially intense in Pakistan, where roughly nine-in-ten say they are displeased with the way things are going in their country, but large majorities across the globe are also dissatisfied. For example, in Spain, dissatisfaction with the country’s direction is at its highest level (83%) since 2003. Meanwhile, the number of Americans who think their country is headed in the wrong direction has swelled from 62% to 73% over the past year.

Only in a handful of countries do more than half express satisfaction with their country’s direction. Among these exceptions are China, Brazil, and India – all dynamic, emerging economic powerhouses, regionally and globally. In Egypt, too, there is substantial satisfaction with the country’s direction (65%), likely reflecting renewed optimism about the country’s future, following the democratic uprising earlier this year

In many instances, levels of overall satisfaction are linked to assessments of the economy. In the U.S., France, Britain and Spain, eight-in-ten or more offer a negative assessment of the national economy, and majorities in these countries see rising prices and a lack of jobs as very big problems.

Inflation worries are especially pronounced outside the industrialized West. Overwhelming majorities in Pakistan, Kenya, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, India and Indonesia describe price increases as a major problem. In Spain, Britain and the U.S., unemployment weighs more heavily than rising prices on the minds of average citizens.

The Chinese public is the most upbeat about economic conditions, with nearly nine-in-ten describing the domestic economy as good. In Germany, two-thirds echo this view, while smaller majorities in India, Israel and Brazil favorably assess the economic situation in their country.

Inflation and a lack of job opportunities are also seen as less urgent issues among Chinese and German respondents. In Germany, for instance, only about a third of the public describes either price increases or unemployment as very big problems. In China, 37% say a lack of jobs is a major concern, while about half are worried about inflation.

Despite economic concerns, publics in all regions express substantial support for growing international trade and business ties with other countries. No fewer than two-thirds in each country say increased international trade is very or somewhat good for their country.

Also of Note:

• Among those who describe the economic situation in their country as bad, most place the primary blame on government. To a greater degree than others, Western Europeans fault banks and other financial institutions for economic troubles at home, with as many as 75% of those who say the economy is bad in Britain and Spain taking this view.
• Worldwide, people tend to blame outside forces, rather than individuals themselves for unemployment in their country. In Western Europe and the U.S., roughly seven-in-ten or more attribute unemployment to forces beyond the control of individuals.
• The United Nations generally receives positive marks among the 23 nations surveyed. However, opinion of the international body is negative in Israel (69%), the Palestinian territories (67%), Jordan (64%) and Turkey (61%).
• In most predominantly Muslim countries there is widespread opposition to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. Only in Pakistan does a majority (61%) support Iran’s nuclear ambitions, although significant numbers of Palestinians (38%) and Lebanese (34%) back Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear arsenal.