Special to CNN

At the Republican National Convention scheduled to take place this week and the Democratic National Convention beginning September 3, Americans will notionally be choosing their candidates for president of the United States. Effectively they will be deciding who will be the leader of the world for the next four years.

The world’s citizens get no say in this choice. Nevertheless, people outside the United States have definite opinions about Obama and some of the key issues in the campaign: about the state of the economy and what to do about it, climate change and how they think Washington should treat them.

Neither the GOP nor the Democratic nominee is likely to shape his electoral message to the American people to please foreigners. In fact, if he did, it would probably hurt his chances of winning.

But either challenger Mitt Romney or incumbent President Barack Obama is going to be the next U.S. president. And experience shows that the success or failure of his foreign policy may depend, in part, on how it is perceived abroad. So what people around the world think going into the final two months of the U.S. presidential campaign does matter, if not on November 6, then for the next four years.

Europeans have had a four-year love affair with Barack Obama: 87 percent of Germans, 86 percent of French and 80 percent of the British have confidence in Obama, according to a 2012 poll by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes project. In each case this is higher than public confidence in their own national leader. And 92 percent of the French, 89 percent of the Germans and 73 percent of the British want Obama reelected.

Read the full commentary at CNN’s Global Public Square blog

Special to CNN

With less than three months to go in the U.S. presidential election, the candidates’ debate over America’s place in the world can only be expected to escalate. Republican contender Mitt Romney is likely to echo a theme he developed in the spring primary campaign: America’s stature on the world stage has suffered during President Barack Obama’s time in the White House. President Obama can be expected to counter that America isn’t in decline; in fact, during his tenure U.S. influence has rebounded.

This debate is broadly about American power. But power is a nuanced concept. It manifests itself both through military muscle and cultural influence. The candidates’ stump speeches rarely delineate this distinction. But global publics do. Recent opinion surveys suggest that people outside the United States question American hard power and increasingly embrace U.S. soft power.

Whoever is president in 2013, the success abroad of his foreign policy may depend on achieving the right balance in the exercise of American hard and soft power.

Read the full commentary at CNN’s Global Public Square blog

Following a winter of discontent Russians express an increased appetite for political freedom, and at the same time strongly endorse Vladimir Putin.

Compared with just a few years ago, more Russians believe that voting gives people like themselves an opportunity to express their opinion about the country’s governance, more feel that it is important to be able to openly criticize the government, and greater numbers see freedom of the press and honest elections as very important.

Consistent with the value placed on core democratic principles, a solid majority (64%) see attending protests as an opportunity to speak out about how the government is run, and more than half (56%) specifically approve of the mass demonstrations that followed the December 2011 parliamentary vote, which was marred by fraud allegations. In that regard, while a modest 56%-majority says they are satisfied with the outcome of the March 4, 2012 presidential election, just 47% believe that election was fair.

Nonetheless, the poll finds a number of indicators of support for the status quo. Most notably, 72% of Russians voice a favorable opinion of Vladimir Putin, while almost as many hold a positive opinion of Dmitri Medvedev (67%). Putin’s popularity is being fueled more by views of the economy and perceptions of social mobility than it is being hurt by democratic aspirations. Relatively few Russians express favorable views of other prominent political figures. Roughly four-in-ten or fewer have positive opinions of presidential contenders Gennady Zyuganov (39%), Mikhail Prokhorov (36%), Sergei Mironov (36%) and Vladimir Zhirinovsky (28%). Meanwhile, 54% of Russians are unfamiliar with government critic and protest organizer Alexei Navalny.

Further, as they have for most of the post-Soviet era, a majority of Russians continue to feel that relying on a leader with a strong hand in order to solve problems is more important than relying on a democratic form of government (57% vs. 32%). In addition, strong majorities say it is very important to live in a country where there is law and order (75%) and economic prosperity (71%). In fact, three-quarters say they would choose a strong economy over a good democracy.

These are among the principal findings from a nationwide survey of Russia by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 1,000 adults in Russia between March 19 and April 4, 2012. The poll finds that Russians are generally divided about their country’s direction as Putin begins his third term as president: 46% are satisfied with the way things are going in their country, while 45% are not. At home, the economy is a concern for many Russians, with only 32% describing the current economic situation as good. Meanwhile, in the international arena, a solid majority (73%) believe Russia deserves greater respect from other countries. The survey also finds persistent strains of ethnic nationalism among Russians, with about half (53%) saying Russia should be for Russians only, and 44% saying it is natural for Russia to have an empire.

Democratic Freedoms More Valued

Against the backdrop of protests over the conduct of elections and the state of democracy in Russia, increasing numbers of Russians endorse the importance of key civic freedoms and institutions. Looking back a full ten years, five of the six measures of democratic freedom tested by the Global Attitudes Project have witnessed double-digit increases in terms of the percentage of Russians describing them as “very important.”

As they have in the past, today Russians place the greatest value on a judiciary that treats all citizens equally (71%), but compared with 2009, more now also value a civilian-controlled military (up 14 percentage points), an uncensored media (up 12 points) and honest elections (up 11 points). The importance of free speech and religious freedom has grown more modestly over the past three years (up 7 and 5 percentage points, respectively).

Although growing numbers of Russians value civic freedoms and institutions, relatively few see these as a reality in their country. Roughly one-in-five or fewer say a fair judiciary (17%), honest elections (16%), uncensored media (15%) and a civilian-controlled military (14%) describe Russia very well. Slightly more (28%) say that freedom of speech is characteristic of their country, while almost half (46%) agree that citizens are generally free to practice their religion.

Comparing the percentage of Russians who place a high value on core political freedoms with the percentage who believe the same freedoms are a fact of life in Russia, it is possible to discern a growing gap between democracy’s promise and practice.

In light of this gap, it is not surprising to find only 31% of Russians are satisfied with the way democracy is working in their country. This sentiment is pervasive across demographic groups. And although those with a favorable view of Putin are somewhat more upbeat about the state of democracy in Russia (36% satisfied), even within this group a majority (57%) see room for improvement.

Voting, Protests Seen as Important

Despite the public’s disappointment with democratization in Russia, the number of people who say voting matters has actually risen. In 1991, when the Times Mirror Center, precursor to the Pew Research Center, first asked if voting gave people an opportunity to express their opinion about how government runs things, just 47% agreed. In 2009, the balance of opinion showed more doubting the power of voting. But this spring there seems to be a renewed conviction that casting one’s vote matters – a 56%-majority now believes this to be true.

Positive shifts in the value placed on voting are evident across education and income groups. Meanwhile, attitudes among older Russians appear to have “caught up” with those of younger Russians. In 2009, just over half (54%) of those ages 18-29 said that voting gave them a say about governance, but fewer among 30-49 year olds (42%) or those over 50 (38%) felt the same. Today, about the same number of 18-29 year olds think voting matters (51%), but more among the 30-49 and 50-plus cohorts now share this view, (55% and 61%, respectively).

Along with generally endorsing the importance of voting, a strong majority of Russians (64%) believe that attending protests or demonstrations is an effective way for average citizens to comment on the government’s actions. And more than half (56%) say they support the protests for fair elections that arose in the wake of the controversial parliamentary vote in December of last year.

While some in Russia have suggested that the protests for fair elections are the result of Western meddling, most Russians (58%) disagree, attributing the demonstrations instead to genuine dissatisfaction among the public.

Mixed Reaction to Presidential Vote

Protests in the wake of the December 2011 parliamentary elections brought to the fore questions about the fairness of the March 4, 2012 presidential vote. Following Putin’s first-round victory, the public offers a mixed assessment of the balloting: 47% believe the election was free from manipulation, while roughly a third (35%) disagree and 18% are uncertain.

Overall, a majority (56%) say they are satisfied with the results of the election, compared with a third (33%) who are dissatisfied. One-in-ten do not have an opinion either way.

The perceived fairness of the March 4th vote is a key factor influencing satisfaction with the outcome. Nearly nine-in-ten (87%) who think the election was “clean” say they are satisfied with the outcome. By contrast, only one-in-five who believe the vote was unfair say the same. Russians who are unsure whether the election was fair, meanwhile, tend to be satisfied (46%) with Putin’s victory.

Not surprisingly, reaction to the election results is especially positive among Russians who hold a favorable opinion of Putin (71% satisfied) and those who feel they are better off financially than they were five years ago (71% satisfied).

Putin’s Continued Appeal

While some Russians may have their doubts about the fairness of the March 4th presidential vote, Putin clearly remains popular. Roughly seven-in-ten (72%) say they have a favorable opinion of the returning president. Only about a quarter (24%) of respondents voice the opposite view.

Putin’s base of support is broad, although he is especially popular among women, Russians ages 30-49 and those with less than a college education. Overall, opinion of the newly elected president is more influenced by views of the economy and perceived social mobility. People who say the economy is good and feel they are better off than their parents are more likely to have a positive view of Putin. To the degree that democratic leanings help shape attitudes toward Putin, those who say an uncensored media is very important are less likely to have a favorable opinion of Russia’s long-time leader.

Dmitri Medvedev, who will now be stepping into the role of prime minister, is also widely popular. Two-thirds of Russians have a favorable view of Medvedev, while only 28% voice an unfavorable opinion.

In terms of public support, Putin and Medvedev clearly stand out from other figures on Russia’s political stage. Among the presidential candidates this spring, for example, Putin is the only one viewed favorably by a majority of Russians. Indeed, on balance, opinions of veteran politicians such as Communist Party head Zyuganov, A Just Russia’s Mironov and Liberal Democratic Party leader Zhirinovsky are negative (52%, 51% and 66% unfavorable, respectively).

Views are similarly negative for presidential candidate Prokhorov: roughly half (48%) have an unfavorable view of the billionaire businessman. Meanwhile, among the relatively few Russians familiar with Alexei Navalny, the online activist and a prominent organizer of anti-government protests, views also tend to be more negative than positive (31% vs. 16%).

Challenges Ahead?

As Putin assumes the presidency for the third time, he faces a public with mixed views about the state of their nation. At home, opinion is nearly evenly split as to whether the country is headed in the right direction. On one hand, more today (46%) than at any point since 2008 say things are going well. But on the other, worries persist. In particular, a majority (64%) continues to describe the economy as bad.

Internationally, meanwhile, Russians show signs of insecurity. Slightly more than half (55%) believe their country is generally disliked by other countries – an increase of 8 percentage points since 2010. And fully 73% say Russia deserves to be more respected around the world than it currently is.

The desire for enhanced prestige on the world stage coexists with a persistent strain of ethnic nationalism. Roughly half (53%) of Russians say their homeland should be for Russians, while 44% think it is natural for Russia to have an empire.

Views on the fairness of the election, however, are more mixed. Only a plurality believe the presidential election was “clean,” while a substantial minority question the integrity of the balloting, and almost one-in-five are unsure.

Overall, a clear majority of Russians endorse the notion that protests and demonstrations provide people an opportunity to express their opinion about how government runs things. And most – including many Putin-backers – say they support the fair-elections protests that began in the wake of the December 2011 parliamentary vote.

Interestingly, compared with a few years ago, more Russians today see their vote as a way to communicate their opinion about governance, even as many continue to doubt elected officials actually pay heed to what average citizens think.

Views on the Presidential Vote

A modest majority of Russians (56%) say they are satisfied with the results of the March 4th election, while a third say they are not. One-in-ten do not offer an opinion.

Views on the fairness of the election are more mixed. Just 47% believe balloting was free from manipulation, while roughly a third (35%) disagree and 18% are uncertain.

The perceived fairness of the March 4th vote is a key factor influencing satisfaction with the outcome. Nearly nine-in-ten (87%) who think the election was fair say they are satisfied with the outcome. By contrast, only one-in-five who believe the vote was unfair say the same. Russians who are unsure whether the election was fair, meanwhile, tend to be somewhat content with Putin’s victory (46% satisfied vs. 23% dissatisfied).

As one might expect, Russians who hold a favorable opinion of Putin generally express satisfaction with the March 4th election results: 71% in this group are pleased with the former president’s victory, while just 20% are not. The inverse is true among those who have a negative view of Putin – only 17% express satisfaction with the election outcome, compared with 72% who are dissatisfied.

Reaction to the election is also split along party lines. Nearly eight-in-ten Russians (78%) who identify with United Russia, Putin’s governing party, say they are satisfied with the March vote, while only 16% are displeased. By contrast, only 31% among those aligned with the Communist Party are satisfied with the election results, compared with nearly six-in-ten (58%) who are not. Reaction to Putin’s victory is more divided among Russians aligned with other parties (41% satisfied, 50% dissatisfied) or no party (46% satisfied, 37% dissatisfied).

Putin’s return to the presidency is clearly a positive outcome for those who feel they are better off than five years ago. Roughly seven-in-ten (71%) in this group say they are satisfied with the results of the March 4th vote, compared with 21% who are dissatisfied. Among those who say their circumstances are unchanged from five years ago, reaction to the election is mostly positive: 54% satisfied, 33% dissatisfied. Among those who feel worse off today, opinion is divided regarding Putin’s first-round triumph, with 42% expressing satisfaction and 47% saying they are dissatisfied.

Support for Protests

Russians generally endorse the value of popular protests, with 64% saying they mostly or completely agree that attending demonstrations gives people like themselves an opportunity to express their opinion about how the government runs things. Roughly a quarter (27%) disagree, while 8% don’t have a definite opinion.

Asked specifically about the protests that arose in the wake of the December parliamentary vote, a 56%-majority say they support the protests, compared with a third who oppose the demonstrations and one-in-ten who do not offer an opinion.

Only a quarter of the Russian public subscribes to the view that the protests of the last several months are the result of Western powers attempting to destabilize Russia. Rather, nearly six-in-ten (58%) believe the demonstrations emanate from genuine Russian dissatisfaction with the conduct of elections.

Support for the recent protests is somewhat higher among men than women (61% vs. 52%). People with at least a college education are more supportive than those with secondary education or less (63% vs. 49%).

Notably, Russians who have a favorable opinion of Putin are divided over the issue of the fair-election protests (48% support vs. 42% oppose), while those who view Putin unfavorably clearly back the protesters (79% support vs. 12% oppose). Similarly, those who question the integrity of the March 4th presidential vote clearly come out in favor of the demonstrators by a 74% to 17% margin. Meanwhile, those who believe the election was fair tend to object to the protests (41% support vs. 51% oppose).

Voting Matters

Against the backdrop of protests demanding “clean” elections, a majority of (56%) of Russians say that voting gives people like themselves an opportunity to express their opinion about how government runs things. Just over a third (37%) disagree.

Compared with previous years, belief in the importance of voting has strengthened. In 1991, for example, when Russians were first asked if voting gave people a voice, opinion was divided: 47% said yes, while 43% said no. By 2009, the public had actually soured somewhat toward the ballot box, with 44% saying their vote mattered, but more than half (54%) saying it did not.

Today, attitudes toward voting are fairly consistent across demographic groups. In terms of change over time, however, one of the most dramatic increases has occurred among Russians age 30 and older. In 2009, just 42% of those 30-49 and 38% of those over 50 felt their vote mattered. Today, 55% and 61%, respectively, feel this is true. Among young people, meanwhile, attitudes toward voting have remained about the same: in 2009, 54% of 18-29 year olds said voting gave them a voice; today, roughly the same number (51%) still hold this view.

Despite the increased importance placed on voting, Russians are not convinced that their voices matter to those in power. Six-in-ten, for instance, doubt that elected officials care what people like themselves think, while just a third believe elected office-holders care about public opinion.

Though a minority, the number of Russians who believe elected officials care about citizens’ views is actually higher than in years past. In 2009, only about a quarter (26%) held this view, while in 1991 just 18% thought this was the case.

Democratic stirrings among the public notwithstanding, the survey finds that favorable views of Putin are influenced first and foremost by economic factors: people who say the economy is good or feel they are better off than their parents are more likely to have a positive opinion of Putin. To the degree that democratic values factor into attitudes toward Putin, those who say an uncensored media is important are less likely to have a positive view of the third-term president.

Other figures on Russia’s political stage barely hold a candle to Putin. Russians generally have negative views of Putin’s challengers from the March 2012 presidential election, especially the outspoken nationalist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Alexei Navalny, a critic of Putin and one of the lead organizers of demonstrations protesting recent elections, is unknown to more than half of the Russian public.

Putin and Medvedev Widely Popular

Vladimir Putin is well liked by most Russians, with roughly seven-in-ten (72%) offering a favorable opinion of the recently re-elected president. Only about a quarter (24%) of respondents have an unfavorable view of the Russian leader.

Putin is broadly popular, but especially so among women, those ages 30-49 and those with less than secondary education (75%, 75% and 77% favorable, respectively).

Overall, assessments of the national economy and social mobility play the greatest role in shaping attitudes toward Putin. Those who say the economy is in good shape and those who feel that they are better off than their parents are more likely to have a favorable opinion of the third-term president. To the extent that popular views of Putin are shaped by democratic aspirations, people who place importance on a media free from censorship are less likely to have a positive opinion of Putin.

Medvedev, the second half of what some have referred to as Russia’s leadership tandem, is also widely popular.

Two-thirds of Russians have a favorable view of Medvedev, while only 28% voice an unfavorable opinion. Like Putin, Medvedev is broadly popular across demographic groups, while his ratings jump to 88% among Russians who either have a favorable view of Vladimir Putin or support Putin’s political party, United Russia. By contrast, among those with an unfavorable view of Putin only 12% support Medvedev.

When it comes to how much confidence the Russian people have in Medvedev’s handling of world affairs, 59% say they have a lot or some confidence in his ability to do the right thing, while a third express not too much or no confidence. This is a decline from 2011 when 70% of Russians said they had confidence in Medvedev to handle world affairs and an even larger drop from 2009, when 76% of Russians expressed confidence in him.

The public’s confidence in Medvedev is slightly less than that for Putin: 69% have confidence in Putin’s handling of world affairs, while about a quarter (24%) do not.

Other Politicians Not As Well-liked

While Putin and Medvedev enjoy high ratings, other political figures in Russia are not nearly as popular. Gennady Zyuganov, First Secretary of the Communist Party of Russia and runner-up in the March 4th presidential vote, is viewed favorably by 39% of Russians, while roughly half (52%) have an unfavorable opinion of him. Communist party sympathizers give Zyuganov his highest marks, with about eight-in-ten (79%) expressing a positive view. Those ages 50 and older (47%) and those with secondary or less education (46%) also tend to view Zyuganov more favorably, while those under 30 or with a college education tend to view him less favorably (34% and 36% favorable, respectively). The Communist party leader’s ratings are mixed among those who make 10,000 rubles or less per month (49% favorable/45% unfavorable). Meanwhile Russians making more than 25,000 rubles per month are about twice as likely to have a negative as positive opinion of Zyuganov (62% vs. 29%).

The third and fifth place finishers in the March 4th presidential election, Mikhail Prokhorov, an independent billionaire, and Sergey Mironov, the candidate of the left-wing A Just Russia party, have limited appeal among the public. Just 36% of Russians have a favorable view of either Prokhorov or Mironov, with about half expressing an unfavorable opinion of each man. Prokhorov, who is also owner of an American professional basketball team, is more popular among urban and more educated Russians, but even among these groups he does not garner majority support.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the leader of the right wing Liberal Democratic Party of Russia and fourth place finisher in the presidential election, is even more disliked among Russians. Only 28% of Russians express a favorable opinion of the outspoken politician, with nearly two-thirds (66%) saying they have an unfavorable opinion.

Alexei Navalny, who was not a presidential candidate but was a driving force behind street demonstrations protesting the conduct of the December 2011 parliamentary and March 2012 presidential elections, is not well known among the Russian public. More than half (54%) have no opinion of the outspoken Putin critic. Only 16% have a favorable opinion of Navalny, while about three-in-ten (31%) view him negatively.