More than a year after the first stirrings of the Arab Spring, there continues to be a strong desire for democracy in Arab and other predominantly Muslim nations. Solid majorities in Lebanon, Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and Jordan believe democracy is the best form of government, as do a plurality of Pakistanis.

Indeed, these publics do not just support the general notion of democracy – they also embrace specific features of a democratic system, such as competitive elections and free speech.

A substantial number in key Muslim countries want a large role for Islam in political life. However, there are significant differences over the degree to which the legal system should be based on Islam.

The United States is not seen as promoting democracy in the Middle East. In newly democratic Tunisia, only about three-in-ten believe the American response to the political upheaval in their country has had a positive impact.

Despite the tumult and uncertainty of the last year, views about democracy are mostly unchanged since 2011, although support has declined somewhat in Jordan. Enthusiasm for democracy tends to be generally less intense in Jordan and in Pakistan. It is consistently strong in Lebanon and Turkey.

While democratic rights and institutions are popular, they are clearly not the only priorities in the six Muslim majority nations surveyed. In particular, the economy is a top concern. And if they had to choose, most Jordanians, Tunisians and Pakistanis would rather have a strong economy than a good democracy. Turks and Lebanese, on the other hand, would prefer democracy. Egyptians are divided.

There is also a strong desire for Islam to play a major role in the public life of these nations, and most want Islam to have at least some influence on their country’s laws. Majorities in Pakistan, Jordan and Egypt believe laws should strictly follow the teachings of the Quran, while most Tunisians and a 44%-plurality of Turks want laws to be influenced by the values and principles of Islam, but not strictly follow the Quran.

About four-in-ten Lebanese say laws should not be influenced at all by the teachings of the Quran, although on this issue – as on many issues – views vary sharply along religious and sectarian lines. While 63% of Lebanese Christians and 38% of Sunni Muslims say laws should not be guided by the Quran, just 13% of Shia Muslims agree.

Just as opinions about religion and politics vary across these six nations, so do views about gender equality. Majorities in all six believe women should have equal rights as men, and more than eight-in-ten hold this view in Lebanon and Turkey. However, in Egypt – where the role of women in society has been a heavily debated issue throughout the post-Mubarak transition period – a slimmer 58%-majority favors equal rights, while 36% oppose the idea. Only 53% of Egyptian men endorse equal rights.

Moreover, while many support the general principle of gender equality, there is less enthusiasm for gender parity in politics, economics, and family life. For instance, many believe men make better political leaders, that men should have more of a right to a job than women when jobs are scarce, and that families should help choose a woman’s husband.

These are among the key findings from a survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted in six predominantly Muslim nations March 19 to April 20.¹ The poll, which is part of the broader 21-nation spring 2012 Global Attitudes survey, found considerable optimism – at least among Arab publics – about the prospects for democracy in the region. Solid majorities in Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan and Lebanon said the 2011 popular uprising would lead to more democracy in the Middle East. Turks and Pakistanis, on the other hand, were less hopeful.

This report includes a special section on Tunisian public opinion (see Part II). In the nation where the Arab Spring began, large majorities say they are dissatisfied with the country’s direction and its economic situation. While Tunisians embrace their country’s nascent democracy, they are divided over whether things in their country have actually gotten better since long-running dictator President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali was forced from office. Still, most are hopeful about Tunisia’s future and optimistic that the economy will improve in the next 12 months. And despite the dissatisfaction with current conditions, the ruling Islamist party Ennahda receives positive marks from 65% of Tunisians.

Both Democracy and Economy Are Priorities

Majorities in five of the six nations polled (and a plurality of Pakistanis) believe democracy is the best form of government. Moreover, there is a strong desire in these nations for specific democratic rights and institutions, such as competitive multi-party elections and freedom of speech.

Other goals are also clearly important. Many say political stability is a crucial priority, and even more prioritize economic prosperity. When respondents are asked which is more important, a good democracy or a strong economy, Turkey and Lebanon are the only countries where more than half choose democracy. Egyptians are divided, while most Tunisians, Pakistanis and Jordanians prioritize the economy.

Overall, views about the economic situation in these countries are grim, although Turkey is a notable exception. Nearly six-in-ten Turks (57%) say their country’s economy is in good shape, but at least seven-in-ten in Pakistan, Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan offer negative assessments.

A Major Role for Islam in Public Life

In five of six nations, solid majorities say Islam is already playing a large role in the country’s political life. In newly democratic Tunisia, where the Islamist party Ennahda won the largest share of votes in the recent parliamentary elections, fully 84% think Islam has a major role.

Similarly, in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood has won both parliamentary and presidential elections, 66% hold this view, up from 47% two years ago.

The view that Islam plays a large role in political life has also become more prevalent in Pakistan over the last two years. Meanwhile, more than six-in-ten in Turkey and Lebanon believe Islam is a major part of political life in their countries. This view is especially pervasive among Lebanese Christians – 75% think Islam has a major role.

The clear exception on this issue is Jordan. Only 31% of Jordanians believe Islam currently plays a large part in their nation’s political life, while 63% say it has a small role. Among the majority of Jordanians who say Islam is playing a small role, 80% say it is a bad thing that Islam has only a minor part in the country’s politics.

Support for Gender Equality – but Not in All Circumstances

While majorities in all six countries support the principle of gender equality, there are significant differences between men and women on this issue. The most striking gender gap is in Jordan, where 82% of women but just 44% of men say women should have the same rights as men.

Moreover, while there is majority support for the idea of gender equality, this does not necessarily apply to specific aspects of public and private life. For instance, at least half in Tunisia, Pakistan, Turkey and Jordan say men make better political leaders. When it comes to economics, most say women should be able to work outside the home, but most also believe that when jobs are scarce, jobs for men should be the first priority. And in the personal realm, many of those surveyed believe a woman’s family should help choose her husband, rather than the woman herself – indeed, in Pakistan and Jordan this is the majority view.

Limited Support for Extremist Groups

Extremist groups are largely rejected in predominantly Muslim nations, although significant numbers do express support for radical groups in several countries. For instance, while there is no country in which a majority holds a favorable opinion of the Palestinian organization Hamas, it receives considerable support in Tunisia, Jordan and Egypt.

The militant Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah receives its highest overall ratings in Tunisia, where nearly half express a positive opinion. Sizable minorities in both Jordan and Egypt also have a favorable view, but Hezbollah’s image has been declining in both countries in recent years. In its home country, views about Hezbollah are sharply divided along sectarian lines: 94% of Shia, 33% of Christians, and 5% of Sunnis give the group favorable marks.

Across all six nations, less than 20% have a positive opinion about al Qaeda or the Taliban. In Turkey and Lebanon, support for these groups is in the single digits. However, fully 19% of Egyptians rate these extremist organizations favorably.

Turkey and Erdogan Popular

Turkey, which has significantly increased its diplomatic profile in recent years, particularly in the Middle East, is held in high regard in the predominantly Muslim nations surveyed. Solid majorities in all six nations express a favorable opinion of Turkey. Moreover, its leader, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the moderate Islamist party AKP, also receives largely positive reviews.

Most of those surveyed believe Turkey favors democracy in the Middle East, including roughly three-in-four in the newly democratic nations of Egypt and Tunisia. Fewer say this about Saudi Arabia, although more than half in Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan think the oil-rich kingdom does support democracy in the region.

Yet, relatively few believe the United States wants democracy in the Middle East, including just 37% in Egypt, a major recipient of American democracy promotion funds in recent years. Exceedingly few think Israel favors democracy in the Middle East – just 10% or less in all six nations hold this view.

Tunisians Unhappy With State of Country, but Still Hopeful

Nearly eight-in-ten Tunisians (78%) are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country and a similar number (83%) describe current economic conditions as bad. And the country is split over whether it is better off now that Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali is no long in power.

However, Tunisians show few signs of wanting a return to autocracy. A majority says a democratic government is preferable, even if that means some risk of instability, and large majorities deem rights and institutions such as a fair judiciary, honest elections, and free speech very important.

And while they are glum about current conditions, they are hopeful about the future. Two-thirds (66%) are optimistic about Tunisia’s future, and 75% think the country’s economy will improve in the next 12 months.

The ruling Ennahda party gets largely positive reviews – 65% have a favorable opinion of the Islamist organization, which was banned from politics during the Ben Ali era. Two Ennahda leaders, party co-founder Rached Ghannouchi and current Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali, are viewed favorably by about two-in-three Tunisians.

The U.S. receives mixed reviews in Tunisia. Overall, 45% have a favorable and 45% an unfavorable view of the U.S. However, President Barack Obama gets mostly poor marks – 57% say they have little or no confidence that Obama will do the right thing in world affairs. And there is no consensus among Tunisians about how the U.S. has handled the political changes taking place in their country – 31% believe the American response has had a positive effect, 27% say it has been negative, and 25% volunteer that the U.S. has had no impact.

Also of Note

• While few in Tunisia and Egypt describe the current economy as good, there is optimism about the future – 75% of Tunisians and 50% of Egyptians believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months.
• On balance, opinions about Iran are negative, although Pakistan is a clear exception – 76% of Pakistanis have a favorable view of Iran, and 47% rate President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad positively.
• Syrian President Bashar al-Assad generally receives very negative ratings across the nations included in the survey (For more on views about Syria and President Bashar al-Assad, see “Widespread Condemnation for Assad in Neighboring Countries,” released June 21, 2012).

Few express positive views of extremist groups Hamas and Hezbollah. Still, both groups have substantial minority support in several countries. Al Qaeda and the Taliban, on the other hand, are viewed negatively by majorities in all the nations polled.

Worries About Extremism Remain Steady

Majorities in Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia and Pakistan are concerned about Islamic extremism in their countries. Concern is particularly high in Lebanon, where roughly eight-in-ten (81%) voice a worry about extremism. In Jordan, opinion is divided, while in Turkey only about a third (32%) are concerned about the threat.

In five of the six predominantly Muslim countries surveyed, concern about extremism is essentially unchanged since last year. Turkey is the lone exception. In 2011, just months after an October 2010 suicide bombing in the center of Istanbul, concern about Islamic extremism was at 52%. Today, that number has fallen 20 percentage points and is at its lowest point since the question was first asked in 2006.

In Turkey, men are slightly more worried about Islamic extremism than women (27%), while in Pakistan women are much more concerned. Roughly seven-in-ten Pakistani women (71%) are very or somewhat concerned, while only 46% of men say the same.

Hamas Viewed Unfavorably By Most

In four of the six predominantly Muslim countries polled, publics express an unfavorable view of Hamas. In Tunisia, half express a favorable view of the militant Palestinian organization, while in Pakistan, nearly three-in-four (73%) offer no opinion.

Despite Hamas being a Sunni organization, roughly six-in-ten Lebanese Shia (58%) hold a favorable view of Hamas, but only 28% of Sunnis and 14% of Christians do.

Support for Hamas has held generally steady over the past year, with only a slight decline in Egypt (-6 percentage points). However, support for the extremist group is down substantially in Pakistan and Jordan since 2007.

Religiosity plays a role in views of Hamas in Egypt, where 54% of Muslims who pray less than five times per day have a favorable opinion of the Palestinian organization, compared with only 32% who pray five times per day.

Limited Support for Hezbollah

Ratings of Hezbollah are generally negative, with majorities in Egypt, Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon holding an unfavorable view of the Shia group. In Tunisia, a 46%-plurality has a favorable view of the Lebanon-based organization, while 74% in Pakistan have no opinion.

Lebanese views of Hezbollah are sharply divided among religious groups, with 94% of Shia expressing favorable views of the militant group, compared with only one-third of Christians and 5% of Sunnis.

Over the last five years, positive views of Hezbollah have declined substantially in Egypt (-36 percentage points) and Jordan (-25) to their lowest levels measured since the question was first asked in 2007.

Favorable views of the militant group have also fallen in Pakistan (-28), although the number of people having no opinion has gone up by a similar amount in that country over this time period.

Views of al Qaeda

Majorities in all the predominantly Muslim nations polled express negative views of al Qaeda, including more than seven-in-ten in Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and Turkey.

In Tunisia, only 16% have a favorable view of the terrorist organization, with roughly six-in-ten (63%) holding a negative opinion.

Support for al Qaeda is mostly unchanged from last year. In Jordan, however, just 14% express a positive opinion today, down significantly from 34% in 2010.

(For more on Muslim views about al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, see “On Anniversary of bin Laden’s Death, Little Backing of al Qaeda,” released April 30, 2012).

Overwhelming Disdain for the Taliban

Less than two-in-ten in all Muslim countries polled have a favorable view of the Taliban, with majorities in every country holding an unfavorable view. Negative opinions of the Taliban are especially high in Lebanon (97% unfavorable), Jordan (81%), and Egypt (76%).

This distaste for the extremist Islamist organization is evident across age, gender and educational groups in each of the countries surveyed.

(For more on Pakistani views of the Taliban see, “Pakistani Public Opinion Ever More Critical of U.S.,” released June 27, 2012.)

Similarly, most Indians – and other Pakistani neighbors – have an unfavorable view of Pakistan. Overwhelmingly, Indians see Pakistan as a serious threat to their country.

Despite these deeply negative views of each other, a majority in each country wants to improve relations through both diplomatic endeavors and bilateral trade. While support for increasing ties between the two nations remains high, enthusiasm has decreased somewhat since 2010 in Pakistan.

Pakistani Views of India

Pakistanis are very negative toward India – about seven-in-ten (72%) are unfavorable, including a majority (55%) that is very unfavorable. Less than a quarter (22%) are positive. Pakistanis have consistently given India negative reviews over the past few years; however, favorable ratings are up eight percentage points since 2011.

Given the history of military conflict between the two countries, it is perhaps unsurprising that roughly eight-in-ten Pakistanis (79%) say India is a serious threat to their nation, including 57% who believe it is a very serious threat. Fewer say the Taliban (58%) and al Qaeda (47%) are a major danger.

When asked which is the greatest threat – India, the Taliban, or al Qaeda – a clear majority names India. Roughly a quarter cite the Taliban and only 4% say al Qaeda. India has been seen as Pakistan’s principal threat since the question was first asked in 2009. Supporters of two major opposition parties – the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) are much more likely to name India as the biggest danger (71% and 61%, respectively) than those that affiliate with the governing Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP), where this view of India is held by 46%.

Pakistanis in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions are more likely to have negative attitudes toward India. For example, 84% in Punjab and 90% in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa see India as a serious threat, while 64% in Sindh and 61% in Baluchistan say the same.

Pakistan Poorly Regarded

Indians are also very negative toward Pakistan. Just 13% express favorable opinions of their neighbor. This is the lowest percentage among the eight countries where this question was asked. However, Pakistan does not receive much warmer reviews in the other countries surveyed.

Among the other Asian nations polled, 52% in China see Pakistan unfavorably, as do 59% in Japan. In four of the five predominantly Muslim nations, over half give Pakistan negative ratings. The only exception is Turkey, where attitudes are divided.

Nearly three-quarters of Indians (76%) say Pakistan is a serious threat, including 59% who say it is a very serious threat. A majority (63%) also believes Lashkar-e-Taiba, a militant Islamist organization in Pakistan, is a danger, while 65% say the same about the communist extremist groups in India called the Naxalites. Roughly half (53%) are concerned about China.

Among these four potential threats to India, a plurality (41%) of Indians name Pakistan as the most serious. Less than two-in-ten choose Lashkar-e-Taiba (19%) or the Naxalites (16%), while only 5% worry the most about China.

Support for Improved Relations

Despite Indians’ and Pakistanis’ mistrust of each other, there is broad support in each country for a better relationship. However, enthusiasm for such efforts has waned over the past two years in Pakistan.

A clear majority in India believes that it is important to improve relations between the two countries. While 62% of Pakistanis agree, this is less than the 70% last year that prioritized improving Pakistani-Indian relations.

Similarly, majorities in both Pakistan and India support further talks to reduce tensions between the two nations. However, approval has fallen in Pakistan since 2010, when 76% favored diplomatic discussions.

More than six-in-ten in Pakistan and India also say that increased trade between the two countries would be a good thing. The percentage in Pakistan who believes better economic relations would be positive for their country has decreased, however, from a high of 77% in 2010.

The dispute over Kashmir is a main point of contention between Pakistan and India. A solid majority (68%) of Pakistanis say the situation in Kashmir is a very big problem for their country.

Given this, roughly eight-in-ten Pakistanis also think it is very important for the two countries to resolve their differences over the region. About six-in-ten Indians agree.

U.S. Relations With India and Pakistan

Pakistanis are much more likely than Indians to believe that U.S. policies favor India. Half say American policies tilt toward India, while roughly one-in-ten thinks the U.S. is fair (8%) or favors Pakistan (9%).

Indians are more divided – roughly a quarter says American policies are fair while slightly more say they favor India. Few believe the U.S. favors Pakistan.

Many respondents in both Pakistan and India say the U.S.-India relationship has improved in recent years. Roughly a third (35%) in Pakistan and more than four-in-ten (43%) in India say relations have gotten better. Many do not have an opinion (39% in Pakistan, 41% in India).

Following a year of tensions between their country and the United States, Pakistanis continue to hold highly unfavorable views of the U.S. and offer bleak assessments of the relationship between the two nations.

Roughly three-in-four Pakistanis (74%) consider the U.S. an enemy, up from 69% last year and 64% three years ago. And President Obama is held in exceedingly low regard. Indeed, among the 15 nations surveyed in both 2008 and 2012 by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, Pakistan is the only country where ratings for Obama are no better than the ratings President George W. Bush received during his final year in office (for more, see “Global Opinion of Obama Slips, International Policies Faulted,” released June 13, 2012).

Only 13% of Pakistanis think relations with the U.S. have improved in recent years, down 16 percentage points from 2011. Strengthening the bilateral relationship is also becoming less of a priority for Pakistanis. While 45% still say it is important to improve relations with the U.S., this is down from 60% last year.

Moreover, roughly four-in-ten believe that American economic and military aid is actually having a negative impact on their country, while only about one-in-ten think the impact is positive.

Additionally, over the last few years, Pakistanis have become less willing to work with the U.S. on efforts to combat extremist groups. While 50% still want the U.S. to provide financial and humanitarian aid to areas where extremists operate, this is down from 72% in 2009. Similarly, fewer Pakistanis now want intelligence and logistical support from the U.S. than they did three years ago. And only 17% back American drone strikes against leaders of extremist groups, even if they are conducted in conjunction with the Pakistani government.

Since 2009, the Pakistani public has also become less willing to use its own military to combat extremist groups. Three years ago, 53% favored using the army to fight extremists in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and neighboring Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but today just 32% hold this view.

Overall, concerns about extremism have ebbed since 2009, when the Pakistan military was battling Taliban-affiliated groups in the Swat Valley area near Islamabad. Then, fully 69% were concerned that extremists might take control of Pakistan, compared with 52% today.

While concerns about extremism may have decreased, extremist organizations remain largely unpopular. Majorities, for example, express a negative opinion of both al Qaeda and the Taliban, as has been the case since 2009. In 2008 – before the peak of the Swat Valley conflict – pluralities expressed no opinion about these organizations.

When Pakistanis are asked more specifically about the Afghan Taliban and Tehrik-i-Taliban (also known as the TTP or Pakistan Taliban), opinions are again, on balance, negative, as they were in both 2010 and 2011.

Views are somewhat more mixed, however, regarding Lashkar-e-Taiba, a radical group active in Kashmir and widely blamed for the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks. Roughly one-in-five Pakistanis (22%) have a favorable view of Lashkar-e-Taiba, while 37% give it a negative rating and 41% offer no opinion.

Meanwhile, a solid majority (64%) offers no opinion about the Haqqani network, a group associated with the Taliban that is active on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, but is largely believed to be based in the FATA region of Pakistan.

Respondents in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province consistently express more negative views about extremist groups than those in other provinces. Al Qaeda, the Taliban, Tehrik-i-Taliban, the Afghan Taliban and Lashkar-e-Taiba all receive especially poor ratings in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistanis who pray five times per day are also more likely than those who pray less often to offer negative views of extremist groups.

These are among the key findings from a survey of Pakistan by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 1,206 respondents between March 28 and April 13. The sample covers approximately 82% of the Pakistani population.¹ The poll in Pakistan is part of the larger 21-nation spring 2012 Pew Global Attitudes survey. Throughout the report, unless otherwise noted, trends from 2011 refer to a survey conducted in Pakistan from May 8-15, 2011, following the May 2, 2011 U.S. military raid that killed Osama bin Laden.² The May 2011 survey showed that, with a few exceptions, the killing of bin Laden had little impact on America’s already low ratings in Pakistan. The current poll reveals that, in some key areas, Pakistani views of the relationship between the two countries have become even more negative in the year since the Abbottabad raid.

High Marks for Khan, Low Ratings for Zardari, Gilani

Pakistanis continue to express considerable discontent with conditions in their own country. About nine-in-ten (87%) are dissatisfied with the country’s direction, barely changed from last year’s 92%. Similarly, 89% describe the national economic situation as bad; 85% held this view in 2011. And overwhelming majorities rate unemployment, crime, terrorism, and corruption as very big problems.

The dismal public mood is reflected in poor ratings for the leaders of the incumbent Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), President Asif Ali Zardari and former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. Only 14% view Zardari favorably, little changed from last year, but down significantly from 64% in 2008. Gilani, who was recently convicted of contempt and dismissed from office by Pakistan’s highest court, fares only somewhat better, at 36% favorable. Gilani received similarly poor ratings last year, although as recently as 2010 a majority of Pakistanis expressed a favorable view of him.

The most popular leader included on the survey is Imran Khan. Seven-in-ten Pakistanis offer a favorable opinion of the former cricket star and leader of the Pakistani Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI). This is essentially unchanged from last year, but up significantly from 2010.

Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is also generally well-regarded – about six-in-ten offer a positive view of the leader of the country’s main opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Sharif has consistently received high marks in recent years, although his ratings are down somewhat from the 79% registered in 2009.

Slightly more than half rate Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry favorably. Ratings for both the army chief and the chief justice have slipped slightly since 2010. Former President (and military chief) Pervez Musharraf, who has occasionally suggested he may return to Pakistani politics, receives relatively poor ratings.

Meanwhile, the military continues to receive overwhelmingly positive marks from the Pakistani public – 77% say the institution is having a good influence on the country. Roughly six-in-ten (58%) also say this about the court system.

Negative Views of India

Only 22% of Pakistanis have a favorable view of traditional rival India, although this is actually a slight improvement from 14% last year. Moreover, when asked which is the biggest threat to their country, India, the Taliban, or al Qaeda, 59% name India.

Pakistanis have consistently identified India as the top threat since the question was first asked in 2009. The percentage fearing India has increased by 11 points since then, while the percentage naming the Taliban has decreased by nine points.

Despite these negative sentiments, 62% of Pakistanis say it is important to improve relations with India. And roughly two-thirds support more bilateral trade and further talks to try to reduce tensions between the two nations.

Most Indians also want better relations, more trade, and further talks between the two nations. Still, Indian attitudes toward Pakistan remain largely negative. Roughly six-in-ten Indians (59%) express an unfavorable opinion of Pakistan, although this is down slightly from 65% in 2011.

India is not the only country, however, where negative views of Pakistan prevail. Majorities or pluralities give Pakistan a negative rating in six of the seven other countries where this question was asked, including China, Japan, and three predominantly Muslim nations – Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia.

Also of Note

• A 43%-plurality of Pakistanis expect the economy to get worse over the next 12 months, while just 26% think it will improve. Still, there is more optimism than in 2011, when 60% said the country’s economic situation would worsen in the coming year.
• China continues to receive high marks in Pakistan. Nine-in-ten Pakistanis consider China a partner; only 2% say it is more of an enemy.
• Pakistanis and Indians agree that Kashmir should be a priority for their countries. Roughly eight-in-ten Pakistanis and about six-in-ten Indians say it is very important to resolve the dispute over Kashmir.
• Those who identify with Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf party are especially likely to oppose American involvement in the battle against extremist groups in Pakistan, including American aid to areas where extremists operate and intelligence and logistical support to the Pakistani army.

Most Pakistanis disapprove of the U.S. military operation that killed Osama bin Laden, and although the al Qaeda leader has not been well-liked in recent years, a majority of Pakistanis describe his death as a bad thing. Only 14% say it is a good thing.

Moreover, many Pakistanis believe the U.S. raid on bin Laden’s compound – which was located about 35 miles from Islamabad – will have a negative impact on the already strained relations between the U.S. and their country.

However, the current survey, taken after the raid, showed no material change in opinion of the U.S., when compared with polling conducted immediately before it. In fact, prior to the raid favorable ratings of the U.S. had already fallen to a level not seen since 2002, following the invasion of neighboring Afghanistan.

Currently, just 12% express a positive view of the U.S. and only 8% have confidence in President Barack Obama to do the right thing in world affairs. Obama’s ratings are as low as former President George W. Bush’s were in 2008. Most Pakistanis see the U.S. as an enemy, consider it a potential military threat, and oppose American-led anti-terrorism efforts. All of these views were comparably negative both before and after the killing of bin Laden.

Pakistanis are uncertain about their own government’s role in the military operation that killed bin Laden. About three-in-ten (29%) believe the Pakistani government authorized the raid and 23% say it did not, but 49% say they do not know. Only 18% think the government knew bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad and 29% do not think that was the case; again, roughly half (53%) offer no opinion.

Support for the Pakistani government’s military campaign against extremist groups has waned in recent years. Just 37% support using the Pakistani army to fight extremists in the country’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region (formerly the North-West Frontier Province). This level is significantly lower than it was two years ago, when, in a survey taken following conflict between government forces and Taliban-affiliated groups in the Swat Valley area, 53% endorsed using the army to battle these organizations.

Similarly, fears that extremists might take over Pakistan have declined since 2009. Currently, 55% are very or somewhat worried about this possibility – still a sizeable number, but substantially lower than the 69% expressing such concern two years ago.

While concerns about an extremist takeover and support for using military force against extremist groups may be slipping, the groups themselves remain widely unpopular. Just 12% of Pakistanis have a positive view of al Qaeda, down from 18% in 2010. Only 12% give the Taliban a favorable rating, and when asked more specifically about the Tehrik-i-Taliban (which is based in Pakistan) and the Afghan Taliban, Pakistanis give both groups similarly low levels of support.

There is somewhat more support for Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Kashmir-based group that has carried out numerous attacks against India. Currently, 27% have a positive opinion of the organization.

These are among the key findings from two face-to-face personal interview surveys conducted in Pakistan by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. The first was conducted April 10-26 among 1,970 Pakistanis as part of the 23-nation spring 2011 Pew Global Attitudes poll. The second was a special survey conducted only in Pakistan May 8-15, among 1,251 Pakistanis, following the May 2 killing of Osama bin Laden by the U.S. military. This second survey included a new set of questions specifically about bin Laden’s death and repeated nearly all of the questions from the first survey. The samples for both surveys cover approximately 85% of the Pakistani population.¹ Throughout the report, results from the May survey are featured, although comparative data from the April survey are referenced on several questions of particular interest. In general, there are few notable differences between the results of the first and second surveys, suggesting that the death of bin Laden had little impact on Pakistani public opinion about the U.S. or about other issues included on the survey.

Disapproval of U.S. Foreign Policy and Opposition to Drone Strikes

Key features of U.S. foreign policy remain unpopular in Pakistan. Only one-in-five think the U.S. considers Pakistani interests when making foreign policy decisions. Almost seven-in-ten (69%) want U.S. and NATO troops out of neighboring Afghanistan. Roughly six-in-ten (62%) oppose U.S. anti-terrorism efforts.

And beyond the opposition to the raid on bin Laden’s compound, there are other signs that Pakistanis are concerned about issues related to sovereignty and the use of American military force within their country’s borders. Among those who are aware of U.S. drone strikes against extremists in Pakistan, these attacks are widely seen as unnecessary and as too costly in terms of innocent lives. Fears about U.S. military power are widespread – 69% believe the U.S. could be a military threat to Pakistan.

India Seen as Bigger Threat Than Taliban, al Qaeda

Pakistani views of traditional rival India have grown increasingly negative in recent years. Three-in-four express an unfavorable opinion of India, up from 50% five years ago.

When asked which is the biggest threat to their country, India, the Taliban, or al Qaeda, a majority of Pakistanis (57%) say India.

Still, roughly seven-in-ten say it is important to improve relations with India, believe increased trade with their neighbor would be a good thing, and support further talks to reduce tensions between the two countries.

Similarly, Indians express negative opinions of Pakistan; 65% have an unfavorable view of their traditional rival and more name Pakistan as India’s biggest threat (45%) than name Lashkar-e-Taiba (19%) or Naxalites (16%). Yet, like Pakistanis, Indians would like to see improved relations between the two countries and most support increased trade between India and Pakistan.

Grim Ratings for National Conditions and Zardari

Pakistanis continue to be highly dissatisfied with conditions in their country. Roughly nine-in-ten (92%) are dissatisfied with the country’s direction. Almost as many (85%) say the economic situation in Pakistan is bad. And optimism is scarce – 60% think the economy will worsen in the next 12 months; only 13% believe it will improve.

Pakistanis list a myriad of problems afflicting their nation – huge majorities say rising prices, a lack of jobs, crime, terrorism and political corruption are very big problems. Unsurprisingly, given these dismal assessments, ratings for President Asif Ali Zardari are overwhelmingly negative. Only 11% have a favorable view of him, down from 20% last year. His prime minister and fellow Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) leader, Yousaf Raza Gilani, receives a positive rating from 37% – a significant drop from 59% in 2010.

Opposition leader Nawaz Sharif fares better: 63% express a positive opinion of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) leader, down from a year ago when 71% held this view. The most popular leader tested is former cricket star Imran Khan. Nearly seven-in-ten (68%) have a favorable view of the athlete turned politician, up from 52% in 2010.

On balance, Pakistanis continue to view Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry positively, although his ratings have fallen somewhat since last year (51% favorable in 2011; 61% in 2010).

Even though the Pakistani military has received some criticism since the U.S. raid that killed bin Laden, it remains overwhelmingly popular: 79% say it is having a good influence on the country. Ratings for military chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani have remained on balance positive – 52% give him a favorable and 21% an unfavorable rating. This represents a slight change from the April poll conducted prior to bin Laden’s death, when 57% rated him favorably and 18% unfavorably.

Also of Note

• In addition to the military, the media and religious leaders are also well-regarded; 76% of Pakistanis say the media are having a good influence on the way things are going in their country and 60% say the same about religious leaders. Few give the police and the national government positive ratings.
• Just 37% of Pakistanis say they followed news about the U.S. military raid that killed bin Laden very or somewhat closely, while 39% followed news about the raid not too closely or not at all closely.
• Most Pakistanis support the U.S. providing financial and humanitarian aid to areas where extremist groups operate, and many want the U.S. to provide intelligence and logistical support for Pakistani troops fighting extremists.
• Violence is the top concern among those who are worried about Islamic extremism in Pakistan; 40% say this, compared with 24% who are most concerned about the impact of extremism on the national economy, 16% who worry that it will lead to loss of freedoms, and 15% who fear extremism will divide the country.
• More than eight-in-ten (85%) Pakistanis say suicide bombing and other violent acts against civilians in defense of Islam are never justified. Far fewer (38%) said this was the case in 2002, when the Pew Research Center first asked this question.

The violence associated with Islamic extremism is the primary concern of Pakistanis who worry about extremism, and this has become increasingly so in the wake of Osama bin Laden’s death. But many also fear that extremism will hurt the economy and, to a lesser extent, that it will lead to divisions in their country and to loss of personal freedoms and choices.

Al Qaeda, the Taliban and its affiliated groups, and Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani extremist organization that is active in Kashmir, receive low ratings in Pakistan, and Pakistanis overwhelmingly reject the violent attacks against civilians that are associated with these groups. When asked about the possibility of the Taliban regaining control of neighboring Afghanistan, however, slightly more Pakistanis say this would be good for Pakistan than say it would be bad; many Pakistanis say it would not matter for their country or do not offer an opinion. Still, most see the situation in Afghanistan as a very big problem for Pakistan, and nearly seven-in-ten want U.S. and NATO troops to leave Afghanistan as soon as possible.

Concerns About Extremism

About six-in-ten (63%) Pakistanis say they are very or somewhat concerned about Islamic extremism in their country these days, and 55% express similar concern that extremists could take control of Pakistan.

Concerns about extremism after the U.S. military raid that killed Osama bin Laden are consistent with concerns just prior to bin Laden’s death and a year before, but have declined considerably since 2009. Two years ago, nearly eight-in-ten (79%) said they were concerned about Islamic extremism and 69% were very or somewhat worried about an extremist takeover. By 2010, 65% expressed concern about extremism in their country and about half (51%) feared that extremists could take over Pakistan, levels that remained essentially unchanged in the month preceding bin Laden’s death, when 63% expressed concern about Islamic extremism and 52% worried that extremists could take control of their country.

Following bin Laden’s death, somewhat more Pakistanis rate his organization as a serious threat than did so just before he died (49% vs. 44%). The percentage of Pakistanis rating al Qaeda as a threat to their country has increased since last year, after dropping considerably between 2009 and 2010; 38% saw the organization as a serious threat in 2010, compared with 61% in 2009.

Perceptions of the Taliban as a threat to Pakistan are unchanged from last year with 54% seeing the Taliban as a serious threat. As is the case with views of al Qaeda, however, far fewer now see the Taliban as a threat than did so in 2009, when 73% expressed concern.

Fears of Islamic extremism are especially pronounced in Punjab, where 70% say they are concerned about extremism and 60% worry that extremists could take control of Pakistan. By comparison, 58% in Sindh, 53% in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 26% in Baluchistan are concerned about Islamic extremism and 52%, 51% and 25%, respectively, worry about an extremist takeover of Pakistan; more than six-in-ten in Baluchistan do not offer opinions on these questions.

More than half in Punjab (56%) and Sindh (61%) consider the Taliban a serious threat to their country, compared with 47% in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 17% in Baluchistan. Concerns about al Qaeda are most common in Sindh, where nearly six-in-ten (58%) consider the group a serious threat; 50% in Punjab, 42% in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 11% in Baluchistan share this concern. About three-quarters (78%) in Baluchistan do not offer an opinion about the threat posed by the Taliban and 84% do not offer opinions on al Qaeda.

Violence Top Concern About Extremism

When those who say they are concerned about Islamic extremism in Pakistan are asked what concerns them most about extremism, four-in-ten say it is the fact that it is violent; 24% are primarily worried that Islamic extremism will hurt the economy, while about one-in-six say their main concern is that it will lead to people having fewer personal freedoms and choices (16%) or that it will divide the country (15%).

Concerns about the violence associated with Islamic extremism are more common now than they were immediately before bin Laden’s death; about a third (34%) of those who expressed concerns about extremism in April said violence was their primary concern. About a quarter (23%) were most concerned about divisions in the country, and close to one-in-five were primarily worried about extremism hurting the economy (21%) or about loss of personal freedoms and choices (18%)

Militant Groups Poorly Regarded

Few in Pakistan express positive opinions of militant groups like al Qaeda, the Taliban and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Currently, just about one-in-eight (12%) rate al Qaeda favorably and 55% have an unfavorable view of the group; a year ago, 18% expressed positive views and 53% had negatives opinions of al Qaeda. Al Qaeda’s late leader, Osama bin Laden, received mostly negative ratings from Pakistanis in the weeks before his death; just 21% said they had confidence in bin Laden while 42% lacked confidence in him.

Views of the Taliban and its affiliated groups also remain negative. About one-in-eight (12%) Pakistanis have a favorable opinion of the Taliban, while 63% give the group a negative rating. Tehrik-i-Taliban, an umbrella organization of Taliban-linked groups in Pakistan, and the Afghan Taliban are viewed favorably by 19% and 15%, respectively; about half have an unfavorable opinion of Tehrik-i-Taliban (51%) and the Afghan Taliban (50%). Many do not offer an opinion of these groups.

Similarly, views of Lashkar-e-Taiba are, on balance, negative; 27% have a positive view and 37% have an unfavorable opinion of the group. More than one-third (36%) of Pakistanis do not offer an opinion.

For the most part, opinions about militant organizations do not vary significantly across demographic groups or regions. However, in Punjab, where Lashkar-e-Taiba is based, opinions of that group are more positive than in other provinces; about a third (34%) in Punjab rate Lashkar-e-Taiba favorably and nearly the same number (35%) offer negative views. In the other three provinces, opinions of Lashkar-e-Taiba are, on balance, negative.

Afghanistan

More Pakistanis now say that the situation in Afghanistan is a very big problem for their country than did so a year ago; 60% say this is the case, compared with 51% in 2010.

About seven-in-ten (69%) say the U.S. and NATO should remove their troops from Afghanistan as soon as possible, up slightly from 2010, when 65% wanted troops to withdraw from the neighboring country. Just 8% think troops should remain in Afghanistan until the situation is stabilized and 22% do not offer an opinion.

When asked whether it would be good or bad for Pakistan if the Taliban were to regain control of Afghanistan, somewhat more now say it would be good (26%) than say it would be bad (21%); a year ago, 18% believed it would be good for Pakistan if the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan and 25% said it would be bad. Still, as was the case in 2010, many Pakistanis say it would not matter if this were to happen (26%) or do not offer an opinion (27%).

Widespread Rejection of Suicide Bombing

Pakistanis continue to reject the notion that suicide attacks against civilians in defense of Islam can be justified. More than eight-in-ten (85%) Muslims in Pakistan say this kind of violence is never justified; another 3% says it is rarely justified and just 5% say it is sometimes or often justified.

Rejection of suicide bombing against civilians is more widespread among Pakistani Muslims than among any other Muslim public surveyed, although majorities in Indonesia (77%), Turkey (60%) and Jordan (55%) also say these types of attacks are never justified. About four-in-ten Muslims in Israel (41%), Lebanon (39%) and Egypt (38%), and just 19% in the Palestinian territories, reject suicide terrorism.

Views of suicide bombing in Pakistan are far more negative than they were earlier in the decade. In 2002, when the Pew Research Center first asked this question, one-third of Muslims in Pakistan said violent acts against civilians in defense of Islam were often (19%) or sometimes (14%) justified; about four-in-ten (38%) said they were never justified.

There continues to be support for using the Pakistani army to fight extremists in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions of the country, and about half of Pakistanis support the idea of the U.S. providing intelligence and logistical support to Pakistani troops. However, enthusiasm for American involvement in the battle against extremists has declined over the last year, and there is little support for U.S. drone strikes against leaders of militant groups. Moreover, the great majority of Pakistanis would like to see U.S. and NATO forces out of neighboring Afghanistan.

Limited Support for Militant Groups

Roughly half of Pakistanis (53%) voice an unfavorable view of al Qaeda, down somewhat from 61% last year. However, opposition to al Qaeda is still much more common today than two years ago, when only 34% expressed an unfavorable opinion. Relatively few Pakistanis (18%) express a favorable view of the group, while 28% offer no opinion.

Views of the Taliban follow a similar pattern – 65% of Pakistanis currently give it a negative rating, down slightly from 2009 (70%), but up considerably from 2008, when only one-in-three Pakistanis offered a negative opinion. Just 15% now offer a favorable rating of the Taliban, although that number has risen from 10% a year ago.

When asked about specific Taliban-affiliated groups operating in Pakistan and Afghanistan, on balance Pakistanis offer negative ratings, although many are unfamiliar with these groups. About half (51%) have an unfavorable opinion of the Tehrik-i-Taliban (an umbrella organization of Taliban affiliated groups in Pakistan, also known as the TTP), while 18% hold a positive view and 31% are unable to rate the organization. Similarly, 49% express a negative view of the Afghan Taliban, 16% a positive view, and 34% offer no opinion.

Opinions about Lashkar-e-Taiba (a Pakistani extremist organization that is active in Kashmir and has often attacked Indian targets) are more mixed. Just over a third (35%) express a negative view of the militant group, while 25% have a favorable opinion and four-in-ten offer no assessment.

Consistently, militant groups receive more positive ratings in Punjab than in other regions. While 27% in Punjab offer a favorable opinion of al Qaeda and 22% express a favorable view of the Taliban, support for these groups is only in the single digits in Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Baluchistan. Lashkar-e-Taiba also gets its most positive ratings in Punjab, where equal numbers express a positive (34%) and negative (34%) view of the organization.

Militant organizations also receive somewhat more positive assessments from lower-income respondents.² For instance, 26% of those with low household incomes have a favorable view of the Taliban, compared with 13% of middle income respondents and 10% of those with higher incomes. Views of al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba, TTP, and the Afghan Taliban are also generally more positive among the lower-income group.

Few Endorse Suicide Bombing

Support for suicide attacks has declined steeply in Pakistan in recent years and it remains low on this year’s poll. As recently as 2004, roughly four-in-ten (41%) Pakistani Muslims said suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilian targets are often or sometimes justified to defend Islam. However, support for these kinds of attacks plunged to 9% by 2007 and has stayed in the single digits since then. Currently, 8% of Pakistani Muslims consider suicide bombing justifiable

Rejection of suicide terrorism is more common among Pakistanis than among most of the other Muslim publics included in the spring 2010 Pew Global Attitudes survey. Eight-in-ten Pakistani Muslims say these attacks are never justified. Large majorities of Muslims in Turkey (77%) and Indonesia (69%) also hold this view, as well a slim majority in Jordan (54%). However, less than half of Egyptian (46%), Nigerian (44%) and Lebanese (40%) Muslims believe this kind of violence is never justified.

Views toward Osama bin Laden, whom some experts believe is now hiding in Pakistan’s tribal areas, have followed a somewhat similar trajectory, with steep declines since the middle of the last decade. In 2005, about half (52%) of Pakistani Muslims expressed confidence in bin Laden to do the right thing in world affairs; today only 18% share this view.

Concerns About Extremism Ebb

Most Pakistanis remain worried about the rise of Islamic extremism in their country, although these concerns have waned somewhat since last year. Nearly two-thirds (65%) say they are very or somewhat concerned about extremism in Pakistan, compared with 79% in 2009. When asked about the rise of extremism around the world, Pakistanis are also less concerned than they were last year (63% now vs. 76% in 2009).

Fears that extremists may take control of Pakistan are also less widespread in this year’s survey. A year ago, 69% were very or somewhat worried that extremist groups could take over the country; roughly half (51%) currently feel this way. Concerns about an extremist takeover are most common among high-income (63%) and well-educated (60%) respondents, as well as those from the Sindh region (61%).³

Similarly, Pakistanis see the Taliban and al Qaeda as less threatening than in last year’s survey. Currently, 54% consider the Taliban a very or somewhat serious threat to Pakistan, down from 73% in 2009. Just 38% say al Qaeda is a serious threat, compared with 61% last year.

Pakistanis in the high income group are especially likely to see a threat from both the Taliban (66%) and al Qaeda (50%). The well-educated are also more concerned about these groups – 61% see a threat from the Taliban and 51% from al Qaeda. Residents of Sindh (68%) are more likely than others to consider the Taliban a serious threat, while those in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (50%) are the most concerned about al Qaeda.

Little Enthusiasm for Drone Strikes

Despite their opposition to extremist groups, Pakistanis who have heard about drone attacks targeting leaders of extremist organizations tend to oppose these attacks. Just over one-in-three Pakistanis (35%) have heard about the drone strikes. Nearly all (93%) of those who are familiar with the strikes say they are a bad thing.

Most Pakistanis (56%) who have heard about the drone attacks say they are not necessary to defend Pakistan from extremist groups, while about one-in-three (32%) believe they are necessary. Nine-in-ten think these attacks kill too many innocent people.

Roughly half (49%) of Pakistanis who have heard about the strikes think they are being conducted without their government’s approval, while 33% disagree with this opinion. About two-thirds (66%) of those familiar with the drone attacks believe the U.S. government is conducting them, while 6% say it is the Pakistani government, and 15% volunteer that it is both governments.

Even though the drone attacks are unpopular, many Pakistanis believe the death of TTP leader Baitullah Mehsud, who was killed by a drone missile attack in August 2009, was a good thing. Among those who have heard about Mehsud’s death, 47% say it was a good thing, 31% say it was bad, and 22% do not give an opinion.⁴

Fewer Want U.S. Involvement

Support for U.S. involvement in the battle against extremist groups in Pakistan has declined since last year. Currently, 53% of Pakistanis support the U.S. providing financial and humanitarian aid to areas where extremist groups operate, down from 72% in 2009.

Today, 48% want the U.S. to provide intelligence and logistical support to Pakistani troops fighting extremist groups, compared with 63% last year.

Just 23% of Pakistanis support the idea of the U.S. conducting drone strikes in conjunction with the Pakistani government against extremist leaders. About one-in-three (32%) oppose this idea, while nearly half (45%) do not have an opinion.

Afghanistan

U.S. and NATO military efforts in neighboring Afghanistan are broadly unpopular among Pakistanis – 65% say the U.S. and NATO should withdraw their troops as soon as possible, down slightly from 72% in 2009. Only 7% say coalition forces should remain in Afghanistan until the situation there is stabilized, while 28% do not offer an opinion.

Many Pakistanis do not see the war in Afghanistan having an impact on their country. One-in-four say that it would be bad for Pakistan if the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan, 18% say it would be a good thing, and 27% believe it would not matter. Three-in-ten have no view on this issue.

The Pakistani Role in Fighting Extremists

About half (49%) of Pakistanis support the idea of using their country’s army to fight extremist groups in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, while 20% oppose this and 30% offer no opinion. There has been minimal change on this question since last year, although the percentage of Pakistanis who express no opinion has risen eight points.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa itself, public opinion leans in favor of using the army to fight extremists, although many residents of the region do not give an opinion – 43% support, 17% oppose, and 40% do not know. Support for using the military is stronger among high-income (60%) and middle-income (58%) Pakistanis than among those with lower household incomes (48%).

Few Pakistanis are familiar with the arrest of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a leading figure in the Afghan Taliban, by Pakistani authorities in February – only 12% are aware of his arrest. Half of those who have heard about this say it was a good thing, 33% consider it a bad thing, and 18% voice no opinion.

Many See India as Greatest Threat

A strong majority of Pakistanis see India as a threat to their country (74%), including 53% who think their neighbor poses a “very serious” threat. Pakistanis perceive India as a bigger threat than the Taliban or al Qaeda. Just over half (54%) think that the Taliban is a very or somewhat serious threat and fewer than four-in-ten (38%) say the same about al Qaeda (see Chapter 1 for more detailed discussion of views toward the Taliban and al Qaeda).

Pakistanis have become somewhat less concerned about the threat posed by India than they were in spring 2009, when 83% considered India a serious threat. However, there have been even larger drops in the proportion of Pakistanis who rate the Taliban and al Qaeda as very or somewhat serious threats to their country. Concerns about India as a threat are particularly high in the Punjab province, where 84% consider India a serious threat.

When asked to name the greatest threat to Pakistan – among India, the Taliban and al Qaeda – Pakistanis are most likely to rate India as the greatest threat to their country (53%). Fewer than one-quarter (23%) say the same about the Taliban and hardly any respondents (3%) think that al Qaeda poses the biggest threat.

Respondents in Punjab are more likely than any other region polled (68%) to consider India the greatest threat. Threat perception is also high (71%) among supporters of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), a party that has its strongest base in Punjab.

While the perception that India is a serious threat has declined somewhat over the last year, the percentage of Pakistanis naming India rather than the Taliban or al Qaeda as the biggest threat facing their country, has increased somewhat since last year. Fewer than half (48%) thought that India was the biggest threat in 2009, while currently this proportion stands at slightly more than half (53%). Fewer Pakistanis currently consider the Taliban the biggest threat than in 2009 (23% now vs. 32%).

Support for Improved Relations

Even though Pakistanis consider India the biggest threat to their country, many also support improved relations with their neighbor. Fully 72% say that it is very or somewhat important that relations between the two countries improve. Pakistanis have become somewhat more supportive of improved relations with India since 2009, when 67% said the same.

Not only do Pakistanis consider it important to improve relations with India, they also favor greater economic and political ties between the two countries. Roughly three-fourths (76%) of Pakistanis favor additional talks with India, and similar numbers advocate better economic ties (77%).

The Kashmir Issue

The longstanding conflict in Kashmir remains a major obstacle to the development of closer ties between India and Pakistan. Slightly more than seven-in-ten (71%) Pakistanis consider the situation in Kashmir a very big problem for their country.

Majorities of Pakistanis across ethnic, regional and partisan groups see Kashmir as a very big or a moderately big problem. However, concern about this issue is highest among residents of the Punjab province (95%) who share a common border with India and Kashmir, and among the Muhajirs (91%), who immigrated to Pakistan from across the border after the 1947 partition of India and Pakistan.

Not only do most Pakistanis think the Kashmir situation is a very big problem in their country, nearly eight-in-ten (79%) think it is very important that the dispute be resolved. In line with their high levels of concern about the issue, 86% among residents of Punjab and the same percentage of Muhajirs consider this a very important issue for resolution.

Pakistanis remain in a grim mood about the state of their country. Overwhelming majorities are dissatisfied with national conditions, unhappy with the nation’s economy, and concerned about political corruption and crime. Only one-in-five express a positive view of President Asif Ali Zardari, down from 64% just two years ago.

As Pakistani forces continue to battle extremist groups within the country, nearly all Pakistanis describe terrorism as a very big problem. However, they have grown markedly less concerned that extremists might take control of the country. Last year, at a time when the Pakistani military was taking action against Taliban forces in the Swat Valley within 100 miles of the nation’s capital, 69% were very or somewhat worried about extremist groups taking control of Pakistan. Today, just 51% express concern about an extremist takeover.

More specifically, Pakistanis also feel less threatened by the Taliban and much less by al Qaeda. Last year, 73% rated the Taliban a serious threat, compared with 54% now. Roughly six-in-ten (61%) considered al Qaeda a serious threat last year; now, just 38% feel this way.

Nonetheless, both the Taliban and al Qaeda remain unpopular among Pakistanis – 65% give the Taliban an unfavorable rating and 53% feel this way about al Qaeda. Negative views toward these groups have become a little less prevalent over the past year, while positive views have crept up slightly. Still, opinions are much more negative today than was the case two years ago, when roughly one-third expressed an unfavorable view of both groups, one-quarter gave them a positive rating, and four-in-ten offered no opinion.

Pakistanis express more mixed views about another militant organization, Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani group active in Kashmir that has often attacked Indian targets (it is widely blamed for the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks). Just 35% have a negative view of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a much lower percentage than for the other extremist organizations tested. One-in-four Pakistanis express a positive assessment, while 40% offer no opinion. Essentially, views toward Lashkar-e-Taiba resemble Pakistani views about the Taliban and al Qaeda prior to 2009, when the balance of public opinion shifted from indifference to opposition to those groups.

Less Support for U.S. Involvement

America’s overall image remains negative in Pakistan. Along with Turks and Egyptians, Pakistanis give the U.S. its lowest ratings among the 22 nations included in the spring 2010 Pew Global Attitudes survey – in all three countries, only 17% have a favorable view of the U.S. Roughly six-in-ten (59%) Pakistanis describe the U.S. as an enemy, while just 11% say it is a partner. And President Barack Obama is unpopular – only 8% of Pakistanis express confidence that he will do the right thing in world affairs, his lowest rating among the 22 nations.

Moreover, support for U.S. involvement in the fight against extremists has waned over the last year. Fewer Pakistanis now want the U.S. to provide financial and humanitarian aid to areas where extremist groups operate, or for the U.S. to provide intelligence and logistical support to Pakistani troops fighting extremists, although about half of those surveyed still favor these efforts. There is also little support for U.S. drone strikes against extremist leaders – those who are aware of these attacks generally say they are not necessary, and overwhelmingly they believe the strikes kill too many civilians.

The U.S.-led war in neighboring Afghanistan is widely opposed by Pakistanis. Nearly two-thirds (65%) want U.S. and NATO troops removed as soon as possible. And relatively few Pakistanis believe the situation in Afghanistan could have a serious impact on their country: 25% think it would be bad for Pakistan if the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan and 18% say it would be good; 27% think it would not matter and 30% have no opinion.

Nonetheless, despite the prevalence of negative opinions about the U.S., most Pakistanis want better relations between the two countries. Nearly two-in-three (64%) say it is important for relations with the U.S. to improve, up from 53% last year.

These are the latest findings from a spring 2010 survey of Pakistan by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 2,000 adults in Pakistan April 13 to 28, 2010. The sample, which is disproportionately urban, includes Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly the North-West Frontier Province, or NWFP). However, portions of Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are not included because of instability. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), as well as Gilgit-Baltistan (formerly the Federally Administered Northern Areas, or FANA) and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, were not surveyed. The area covered by the sample represents approximately 84% of the adult population.¹ (Pakistan was surveyed as part of the

Spring 2010 Pew Global Attitudes Survey, which included 22 nations. For more findings from this survey, see “Obama More Popular Abroad Than at Home, Global Image of U.S. Continues to Benefit,” released June 17, 2010).

India Seen as a Threat

While Pakistanis express serious concerns about the U.S., they also have deep worries about their neighbor and longtime rival India. Indeed, they are more worried about the external threat from India than extremist groups within Pakistan. When asked which is the greatest threat to their country – India, the Taliban or al Qaeda – slightly more than half of Pakistanis (53%) choose India, compared with 23% for the Taliban and just 3% for al Qaeda.

However, despite the deep-seated tensions between these two countries, most Pakistanis want better relations with India. Roughly seven-in-ten (72%) say it is important for relations with India to improve and about three-quarters support increased trade with India and further talks between the two rivals.

A Bleak View of National Conditions

Few Pakistanis are happy with the state of their nation – only 14% are satisfied with national conditions, while 84% say they are dissatisfied.

Views of the economy are almost as grim. More than three-in-four (78%) say the country’s economy is in bad shape. Moreover, there is growing pessimism about Pakistan’s economic future. Half of the public expects the country’s economic situation to worsen over the next 12 months, up from 35% in the 2009 survey.

Almost all Pakistanis say the lack of jobs is a major problem facing their nation, although economic issues are not the only challenges widely perceived. Vast majorities characterize terrorism, crime, illegal drugs, political corruption, the situation in Kashmir, and environmental issues as very big problems.

The gloomy national mood has clearly had an impact on evaluations of President Zardari – just 20% have a favorable view of him, compared with 64% in 2008 and 32% in 2009. Even among his own political party – the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) – fewer than four-in-ten (38%) express a positive opinion of Zardari. Other leaders receive higher marks, however, including Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, who is also affiliated with PPP. Most respondents have positive views of Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry and cricket-star-turned-politician Imran Khan. Among the political figures tested, opposition leader Nawaz Sharif receives the highest ratings – 71% have a positive opinion of the leader of the opposition Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N).

General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, head of the Pakistani Army, is also generally well-regarded, with 61% voicing a favorable view of him. More broadly, the Pakistani military is overwhelmingly popular: 84% of Pakistanis say the military is having a good impact on their country. And, on balance, Pakistanis tend to support the army’s ongoing efforts to fight extremist groups in the FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: 49% approve of these efforts, while just 20% oppose and 30% have no opinion.

Widespread Support for Harsh Laws

More than four-in-ten Pakistanis see a struggle taking place between Islamic fundamentalists and groups that want to modernize the country; and the vast majority of those who do see a struggle identify with the modernizers.

Nonetheless, many Pakistanis endorse extreme views about law, religion and society. More than eight-in-ten support segregating men and women in the workplace, stoning adulterers, and whipping and cutting off the hands of thieves. Roughly three-in-four endorse the death penalty for those who leave Islam.

Thus, even though Pakistanis largely reject extremist organizations, they embrace some of the severe laws advocated by such groups. Still, Pakistanis differ sharply with the Taliban and al Qaeda when it comes to a tactic associated with both groups: suicide bombing. Fully 80% of Pakistani Muslims say suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilians can never be justified to defend Islam, the highest percentage among the Muslim publics surveyed. As recently as six years ago, only 35% held this view.

Also of Note

• There is no consensus among Pakistanis about the size of American assistance to their country – 23% believe the U.S. provides a lot of financial aid, 22% say it provides a little aid, 10% say hardly any, and 16% believe the U.S. gives Pakistan no aid.
• Attitudes toward China remain positive – 84% consider China a partner to Pakistan.
• Over the last five years, Pakistani Muslims have become less likely to believe Islam plays a major role in the country’s politics. Currently, 46% say it has a large role, compared with 63% in 2005.
• The dispute over Kashmir remains a major issue. Roughly eight-in-ten say it is very important that Pakistan and India resolve this issue, and 71% rate it a very big problem.
• Pakistan’s often freewheeling media gets high marks from respondents – 76% say it is having a good influence on the country.

A transatlantic consensus exists with regard to the threat posed by extremists in Afghanistan and Pakistan, even though Americans and Western Europeans generally disagree about what policy to pursue in Afghanistan.

A 14-nation survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted Aug. 27 through Sept. 24, finds Americans expressing the greatest concerns about the Taliban regaining control of Afghanistan: roughly three-in-four (76%) say that this would be a major threat to the well-being of the U.S.¹

However, solid majorities throughout Western Europe also see this as a major threat to their nations, including 72% of Italians and at least six-in-ten in France (66%), Germany (65%), Spain (64%) and Britain (60%).

Concern is also shared about the potential danger from a Pakistan controlled by extremists. More than six-in-ten Italian (68%), French (67%), British (65%) and American (64%) respondents say this would be a major threat to their countries. Slightly smaller majorities hold this view in Spain (59%) and Germany (57%).

Eastern Europeans are generally less concerned than those in the West about these potential dangers.

Fewer than half in the eight Eastern European countries surveyed believe extremist takeovers of Afghanistan or Pakistan would present a major threat. Within the region, Poles, Bulgarians and Czechs express the greatest concerns — more than four-in-ten in these countries say extremist control of Afghanistan or Pakistan would pose a major threat.

There is less concern among Lithuanians, Slovaks and Hungarians, as well as in the two nations surveyed that are not NATO members: Russia and Ukraine.

The War in Afghanistan

While both Americans and Western Europeans generally believe the “Af-Pak” region potentially poses significant threats to national security, they do not share a common view about the deployment of military forces in Afghanistan.

Half of Americans say U.S. and NATO troops should remain in Afghanistan until the situation has stabilized, while 43% want them removed as soon as possible. By contrast, majorities in France (61%), Italy (56%), Germany (54%) and Britain (54%) say troops should be withdrawn, as do roughly half in Spain (48%).

Throughout Eastern Europe, majorities or pluralities want U.S. and NATO forces out of Afghanistan, including 64% of Poles, as well as 65% in Russia and 62% in Ukraine.

More people in several nations now favor withdrawal than was the case in the spring. This is especially true in France, where a Pew Global Attitudes poll conducted in May and June found that 49% favored removing troops, compared with 61% today. Smaller increases have taken place in Poland (+7 percentage points), Germany (+7), Britain (+6) and the U.S. (+5).

Unsurprisingly, people who believe a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan would be a serious national security threat are more likely to endorse keeping troops there.

However, even among Western Europeans who consider this a major threat, opinion leans toward a troop withdrawal. In all Western European nations surveyed, majorities or pluralities of those who say a Taliban takeover would be a major threat nonetheless want troops removed. Conversely, among Americans who see this as a major threat, 54% want to keep forces in Afghanistan, while 41% favor a withdrawal.

For more information see the topline results.