As economic and geopolitical competition grows between the U.S. and China, Americans and Chinese have hardened their views about each other. The desire of Americans to get tougher with China on economic relations has injected that issue into the U.S. presidential campaign. And, for China’s part, views about relations with the U.S. have become significantly more negative in the last two years.

These trends come against a backdrop where the competition is seen keenly by publics around the world. A Pew Global Attitudes survey conducted in spring, 2011 found that, in 15 of 22 nations, the balance of opinion is that China will replace the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower, or already has.

Perceptions of China’s economic power have been on the rise since 2008, and the spring 2012 Global Attitudes survey found that a median of 41% in 21 countries named China as the world’s economic leader compared with 37% who named the U.S.  Americans were almost evenly divided on the question while, ironically, the Chinese public rated the U.S. as the top economic power over their own country by a 48% to 29% margin.

While nearly two-thirds of Americans (65%) in an April-May survey rated overall relations between the U.S. and China as good compared with 29% who said they were bad, that masks more negative sentiments about Chinese intentions and growing concerns about a range of economic issues.¹

Asked how much the U.S. could trust China, 68% of Americans answered not too much or not at all compared with 26% who say China can be trusted a great deal or a fair amount. Republicans and independents hold that view strongly (74% and 73% respectively), and while Democratic sentiment on the question is less pronounced, it is still strong, at 61%.

As for the Chinese, their views about the U.S. have shifted substantially since 2010. The number of Chinese who regard the U.S. favorably has fallen 15 percentage points in the last two years, from 58% to 43%.²

This has been accompanied by a sharp change in the Chinese view of their relationship with the U.S. Where 68% of Chinese saw the relationship as one of cooperation in 2010, only 39% hold that view now, and the number of those who see the relationship as a hostile one has grown from 8% to 26%.

Chinese confidence in President Obama has also declined. Currently, 38% of Chinese express confidence that Obama will do the right thing in world affairs compared with 52% in 2010 and 62% in a 2009 poll conducted shortly after Obama took office. The 24-point drop since 2009 in China exceeded that of any other country which Pew had surveyed during that period.

Although the competition between U.S. and China has included military and diplomatic strategies to extend their influence, Americans are primarily concerned about the economic challenge. About six-in-ten (59%) say their biggest concern is China’s economic strength while only 28% say it is that country’s military power.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans (66%) regard China as a competitor (compared with 16% who call it a partner and 15% who say it is an enemy) and that sense of competition revolves around the economic.

The top concern of Americans — cited by 78% — is the large amount of American debt held by China. About seven-in-ten (71%) say the loss of U.S. jobs to China is a very serious problem for the U.S. and 61% say the same about the trade deficit with China. Non-economic issues such as cyber attacks from China, its military power or human rights policies are cited by 50% or less of those surveyed.

There has been a shift in the public’s priorities when it comes to economic and trade policy toward China.  In March 2011, Americans saw building stronger relations with China as more important than getting tougher with it by a 53% to 40% margin; the public now says getting tougher is the priority by 49% to 42%.

Republicans are the strongest advocates of get-tough policies with 65% of them favoring that course over building stronger relations; independents are more divided with 47% putting the priority on getting tough and 44% on better relations, but that contrasts with 2011 when they thought building stronger relations with China was more important by a 55% to 30% margin. Democrats come down on the other side, with 53% putting priority on better relations and 39% on getting tough with trade policy. That same partisan divide plays out among supports of President Obama and Mitt Romney with 51% of Obama supporters putting the emphasis on better relations and 67% of Romney backers wanting tougher policies.

Special to BBC News

American fears about China’s economic strength have fed into the US presidential election campaign – shaping public fears in some surprising ways, according to new research.

Foreign rivals have long been used as foils in US elections.

In the 1980s and early 1990s, Japan played the role of bogeyman. Tokyo’s rising trade surplus with Washington came to symbolise fears of declining American competitiveness. And US presidential candidates vied with each other over who could be tougher on the Japanese.

In the 2012 American election, China has become the test of presidential resolve. Both President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger Mitt Romney have pledged to ratchet up the pressure on Beijing.

Romney has promised that on his first day in office he will issue an executive order branding China a currency manipulator, possibly triggering a trade war. And on 17 September, the Obama administration filed an unfair trade case at the World Trade Organization against alleged Chinese subsidies of auto parts exports.

There are substantive reasons for this. China accounts for 40% of the record US merchandise trade deficit. But the political rationale for such actions and promises is also clear.

Read the full commentary at BBC News

Special to CNN

In meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao two months ago, President Barack Obama said: “Over the last several years…we have been able to really create a new model for practical and constructive and comprehensive relations between our two countries.” By early July, on the campaign trail in Ohio, he was touting his administration’s record for bringing “trade cases against China at a faster pace than the previous administration.” This was underscored by the Obama administration’s September 17 unfair trade case at the World Trade Organization against alleged Chinese subsidies of auto parts exports.

Meanwhile, the president’s Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, has promised that on his first day in office he will issue an executive order branding China a currency manipulator, possibly triggering a trade war. However, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed on February 16, he stated that “a trade war with China is the last thing I want,” and then backed away from the threatened executive order by saying that he would designate Beijing a currency manipulator “unless China changes its ways.”

The casual observer might be excused if he or she concluded that the candidates were presenting a mixed message about the China policy they would pursue if they win in November. This paradox may simply reflect the candidates’ efforts to reconcile the imperatives of campaigning versus the constraints of governing when confronted with sharply contrasting views of China.

Read the full commentary at CNN’s Global Public Square blog

With China a key foreign policy issue in the 2012 presidential contest, and both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney promising to “get tough” with the Asian power, the American public expresses both positive and negative views about China and U.S. policy towards it.

Nearly two-thirds describe relations between the U.S. and China as good, and most consider China a competitor rather than an enemy. At the same time, majorities say the U.S. cannot trust China and that the Asian nation does not consider the interests of other countries when making foreign policy decisions. When it comes to dealing with China, as many say being tough with China on economic issues is a very important priority for the U.S. as say the same about building a strong bilateral relationship.

Despite generally positive assessments of U.S.-China relations, Americans are clearly concerned about China’s growing economic strength and its impact on the United States. Most consider the large amount of American debt held by China, the loss of U.S. jobs to China and the U.S. trade deficit with China to be very serious problems, and about half say the Asian nation’s emergence as a world power poses a major threat to America.

In contrast to the general public, American foreign affairs experts are far less concerned about China’s rising power. With the exception of retired military officers, only about three-in-ten among the experts surveyed consider China’s emergence as a world power to be a major threat. Fewer than four-in-ten experts consider the U.S. trade deficit with China to be a very serious problem, compared with about six-in-ten of the broader public; and even fewer experts express concern about the loss of U.S. jobs to China. Moreover, unlike the general public, experts are far more likely to support building a strong relationship with China than to back being tough with Beijing on economic issues.

The public and experts also offer divergent views of how assertive America should be in the world. When asked whether the U.S. should play a shared leadership role, be the single world leader, or not play any leadership role, majorities of the public and experts choose a shared leadership role. Among those who do so, 62% of the public say the U.S. should be no more or less assertive than other leading nations. In contrast, majorities of retired military officers, scholars, government officials, and business and trade leaders who favor a shared leadership role say the U.S. should be the most assertive of the leading nations; views are more mixed among members of the news media.

These are among the key findings of a survey of U.S. foreign affairs experts in government, business, academia, the military and the news media and the American public conducted by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. The survey is part of the broader U.S.-China Security Perceptions Project, conducted in collaboration with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, the China Strategic Culture Promotion Association and the Research Center for Contemporary China at Peking University.

The general public survey was conducted April 30-May 13, 2012, among 1,004 adults. The elite survey was conducted March 1-May 20, 2012, among 305 foreign affairs experts, including 54 government officials in the executive and legislative branches, 52 retired military officers, 74 business and trade leaders, 93 academics, think tank experts and NGO leaders, and 32 reporters, editors and commentators. Although not representative of all U.S. foreign affairs experts, the elite survey findings are indicative of attitudes among high-ranking individuals responsible for matters related to national security or foreign policy.¹

Most See China as a Competitor, Say U.S. Can’t Trust It

The American public, as well as majorities across the five expert groups, describe China as a competitor of the United States. Few see China as either a partner or an enemy. However, the public is more likely than the experts to label China as an enemy; 15% of the public offer this negative view, compared with 3% or less among the five expert groups.

China is also largely seen as untrustworthy by both the American public and the experts. Only 26% of the public and about a third or less across the expert groups surveyed say the U.S. can trust China a great deal or a fair amount. By comparison, at least half among the public and the experts say the U.S. can trust Britain, Japan, France, Israel and India.

Moreover, just one-third of the public and even fewer among most expert groups believe China takes the interests of other countries around the world into account when making foreign policy decisions. Scholars are more likely than other foreign affairs experts to say this, but 59% in that group say China does not consider the interests of other countries. By comparison, solid majorities among the public and experts believe the U.S. considers the interests of other nations.

Views of China are generally more positive among young people. More than four-in-ten respondents younger than 30 see China as trustworthy (43%), compared with fewer than a quarter in older age groups. Younger people are also more likely than older respondents to say China takes the interest of other countries into account when making foreign policy decisions. And while about two-thirds across all age groups describe China as a competitor of the U.S., more 18- to 29-year-olds (22%) and 30- to 49-year-olds (19%) see China as a partner than do 50- to 64-year-olds (12%) and those 65 or older (7%).²

Obama’s China Policy

Nearly nine-in-ten government officials, and at least six-in-ten members of the news media, scholars, and business and trade leaders, approve of the way Obama is handling foreign policy. However, Obama receives lower marks among retired military officers, with a majority saying they disapprove of the president’s performance.

Asked to assess the Obama administration’s handling of China in particular, retired military officers also express more critical views than their counterparts. About half of retired military officers say Obama is not being tough enough with China, while 35% say his policy is about right. In contrast, majorities among the other four expert groups endorse the administration’s handling of China, including about two-thirds or more of government officials, scholars, and the news media.

Among the public, slightly more say Obama is not being tough enough with China than say his policy is about right (45% vs. 39%). Republicans are nearly twice as likely as Democrats to say the president should be tougher (65% vs. 35%); 49% of independents think Obama is not being tough enough with China.

Partisan Divisions on Views about China’s Rise

Republicans are considerably more concerned than Democrats about the impact of China’s rise. Six-in-ten Republicans believe China’s emergence as a world power poses a major threat to the U.S., compared with 48% of Democrats. Moreover, far more Republicans than Democrats see the U.S. trade deficit with China, the loss of U.S. jobs to China and the large amount of American debt held by the Asian nation as very serious problems.

Republicans are also far more likely to favor toughness with China on economic and trade issues, while Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say building a strong relationship with China is a top priority. About two-thirds of Republicans (68%) say it is very important for the U.S. to be tough with China, compared with 53% of Democrats; 48% of Republicans believe building a strong bilateral relationship should be a top priority, while 59% of Democrats offer this opinion.

Also of Note

• Americans view China primarily as an economic threat rather than a military one; 59% say the Asian nation’s economic strength worries them the most, while 28% say its military might is a greater concern.
• Majorities across all expert groups believe China will become more democratic as a result of economic growth.
• At least seven-in-ten Americans describe the Chinese people as hardworking (93%), competitive (89%) and inventive (73%). Most also associate these traits with the American people, but fewer say Americans are hardworking (78%) than say the same about the Chinese.
• About a quarter of the public (26%) names China as the country that represents the greatest danger to the U.S., more than volunteer any other country; 16% name Iran and 13% cite North Korea as the greatest danger. Opinions of which country represents the greatest danger vary across the five expert groups.
• Most experts would support the use of U.S. military force to defend Taiwan if China used military force against the island without a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan. If an attack from China followed a unilateral declaration of independence, however, half or more would oppose the use of U.S. military force to defend Taiwan.
• Majorities across the five expert groups say the world will be more stable in the long run if the U.S. remains the dominant power, but sizeable minorities, including 45% of business and trade leaders, say a balance of power between the U.S. and China would lead to more stability.

Still, Americans do not rank China’s emergence as a world power as the greatest threat to the U.S. More describe global issues such as Iran’s and North Korea’s nuclear programs, Islamic extremist groups, international financial instability and drug-related violence in Mexico as major threats to the U.S. than describe the challenges posed by China this way.

When asked which countries in particular represent the greatest danger to the U.S., about a quarter of the public names China, more than cite any other country; 16% mention Iran and 13% volunteer that North Korea poses the greatest danger.

Like the general public, more retired military officers name China than name any other nation as the country that represents the greatest danger to the U.S. In contrast, Iran is cited more frequently than any other country by government officials, business and trade leaders and members of the news media. Scholars are evenly divided, with the same number volunteering China and Iran as the country that poses the greatest danger.

The experts surveyed generally express less concern than the public about China’s emergence as a world power. International financial instability tops the list of major threats across the five groups, but majorities in all of the groups also consider Islamic extremism and political instability in Pakistan a major threat to the U.S.

Global Threats

About half of Americans (52%) consider China’s emergence as a world power a major threat to the well-being of the United States, while 35% say it is a minor threat and 9% say it is not a threat. Compared with other possible international threats, however, China’s ascent does not rank among the public’s top concerns; at least six-in-ten see Iran’s nuclear program (70%), Islamic extremist groups (70%), North Korea’s nuclear program (69%), international financial instability (65%) and drug-related violence in Mexico (61%) as major threats to the U.S.

Older Americans and Republicans are especially concerned about China’s emergence as a world power. About six-in-ten people ages 50 to 64 (62%) and 65 or older (59%) consider this a major threat to the U.S., compared with 48% of 30- to 49-year-olds and 43% of people younger than 30. Similarly, 60% of Republicans consider the rise of China as a world power a major threat, while 48% of Democrats share this view.

With the exception of retired military officers, few among the expert groups surveyed consider China’s emergence as a world power a major threat. Fewer than a third of government officials, business and trade leaders, scholars and members of the news media see this as a threat, while 46% of former military officers express this view.

Across the five groups, international financial instability tops the list of concerns, with at least eight-in-ten saying this is a major threat to the U.S. Experts are also generally more concerned than the public about political instability in Pakistan, while drug-related violence in Mexico and North Korea’s nuclear program rank considerably lower as major threats among foreign affairs experts than among the general public.

China Seen as Country that Poses Greatest Danger

When asked which country represents the greatest danger to the U.S., more Americans volunteer China (26%) than name any other country. Iran, the country that receives the second-most mentions, is viewed as the greatest danger by 16% of the public, while 13% name North Korea.

In a January 2012 survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, more volunteered Iran than any other nation as the country that posed the greatest danger to the U.S.; 28% cited Iran, while 22% named China (see “Public Priorities: Deficit Rising, Terrorism Slipping,” released January 23, 2012, by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press).

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to name China as the greatest danger. About three-in-ten Republicans (31%) name China, compared with 21% of Democrats; 28% of independents offer this view. Republicans are also more likely than Democrats and independents to cite Iran as the country that poses the greatest danger to the U.S. (26% vs. 13% and 16%, respectively).

Opinions about which country represents the greatest danger to the U.S. vary across the five expert groups surveyed. Retired military officers are more likely than any other group to volunteer China; half do so, compared with fewer than three-in-ten among the other four groups; 38% of retired military officers cite Iran. Among scholars, the same number names China as cites Iran, while about twice as many business and trade leaders and members of the news media name Iran over China as the most dangerous nation. More in government also name Iran than any other country.

China’s Economic Strength

The public views China primarily as an economic threat rather than a military one; 59% are more troubled by China’s economic strength, while 28% say the country’s military strength is a greater concern.

College graduates are four times more likely to express concern about China’s economic strength than its military strength (70% vs. 16%), and those with some college experience are more than twice as likely to view China as an economic rather than a military threat (63% vs. 26%). Opinions are more divided among those with no more than a high school education; 49% are more concerned about China’s economy, while 38% see that country’s military strength as a greater threat.

Despite the public’s concern about China’s economic strength, majorities across the five expert groups see a positive outcome to the Asian nation’s growing economy. Majorities in all five groups believe China will become more democratic as a result of economic growth.

Debt, Trade Deficit and Loss of Jobs Top Concerns

Nearly eight-in-ten people (78%) say the large amount of American debt that is held by China is a very serious problem for the U.S.; majorities also consider the loss of U.S. jobs to China (71%) and the U.S. trade deficit with China (61%) to be very serious problems for their country.

Beyond these economic concerns, about half also see China’s impact on the global environment (50%), cyber attacks from China (50%), China’s growing military power (49%) and China’s policies on human rights (48%) as major problems. Just 27% express similar concern about tensions between China and Taiwan.

Republicans and independents are more concerned than Democrats about economic issues related to China. For example, while 71% of Republicans and 66% of independents say the U.S. trade deficit with China is a very serious problem, just over half of Democrats (54%) express similar concern. And while solid majorities across partisan groups see the loss of U.S. jobs to China and the large amount of American debt held by China as very serious, somewhat fewer Democrats say this is the case.

In contrast, Democrats and independents are considerably more likely than Republicans to say China’s impact on the global environment is a major problem; 54% of Democrats and 53% of independents share this view, compared with just 41% of Republicans.

For the most part, foreign affairs experts are far less concerned than the general public about issues related to China. For example, fewer than four-in-ten in each group say the loss of U.S. jobs to China, the U.S. trade deficit with China, China’s growing military power and China’s policies on human rights are very serious problems for the U.S.

Of the 11 issues tested, including three that were asked of the experts but not of the general public – China’s intellectual property infringement, territorial disputes over the South China Sea, and China’s exchange rate policy – only cyber attacks from China are considered a very serious problem by at least half across all five groups. Retired military officers are especially concerned about this, with nearly nine-in-ten saying it is a very serious problem. Majorities of retired military officers and business and trade leaders and half of government officials also see China’s intellectual property infringement as a major problem for the U.S.; about four-in-ten scholars and members of the news media express similar concern.

Opinion leaders around the world believe that the events of Sept. 11 opened a new chapter in world history, but their views about the United States and its struggle with terrorism reflect a more familiar love-hate relationship with America. Influentials in much of the world, except for Western Europe, see mixed public attitudes toward the war on terrorism. For example, while popular support is reported in most regions of the world, the U.S. is seen as overreacting to the terrorist attacks. Most important, a huge gulf of disagreement exists between American elites and opinion leaders in other parts of the world about the causes of terrorism and the sources of resentment and respect for the U.S.

Commenting on public sentiment in their countries, opinion leaders in most regions say U.S. policies are believed to be a principal cause of the Sept. 11 attack. And majorities in all parts of the world, including Western Europe, say that many or most of the people in their countries think it is good that Americans now know what it is like to be vulnerable.

Asked for their own view, most opinion leaders say they think the U.S. is conducting the war on terrorism without taking into account its allies’ interests. There also is little backing among the 275 political, media, cultural, business and government leaders in 24 countries surveyed by the Pew Research Center and the International Herald Tribune for extending the war to Iraq or Somalia, even if it is shown that these countries have supported terrorism. While half of U.S. opinion leaders would favor expanding the conflict, large majorities in most parts of the world say the war should be confined to Afghanistan.

But reflecting a broad ambivalence toward the United States, a majority of non-U.S. opinion leaders, including nearly half of influentials in Islamic countries, say many or most people in their countries think the U.S. is doing the right thing in fighting terrorism. Moreover, when speaking for themselves, even opinion leaders in Islamic nations say the war against terrorism is worth the risk of destabilizing Muslim states that support the anti-terror coalition.

Few opinion leaders, even in Muslim countries, see popular support for the al Qaeda position and most report at least a moderate degree of public backing for the U.S. More generally, two-thirds of opinion leaders outside the U.S. say ordinary people in their countries have a favorable view of the U.S. The notable exception is the Middle East/conflict area, where roughly half say ordinary people have a negative impression of the U.S.

It should be noted that these are observations that opinion leaders around the world make about people in their countries. A principal objective of the forthcoming Pew Global Attitudes Project will be to test these findings by conducting public opinion surveys in 25 countries over the course of the next year.

American elites see the world image of the U.S. through a different lens than do their counterparts overseas. While they recognize that U.S. power is resented, opinion leaders in the United States believe America’s support of Israel is also a big problem. Not so, say opinion leaders in most other parts of the world, except for those in Islamic nations. Even among leaders in the Middle East/conflict area (Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan and Uzbekistan), U.S. support for Israel is not a bigger factor than are criticisms of the American role in the world.

Along with resentment of U.S. power, the other leading reason that people around the world dislike the United States, according to foreign opinion leaders, is the perception that U.S. policies contribute to the growing gap between rich and poor nations. While acknowledged by some American opinion leaders as well, influentials in most other regions see this as a bigger problem.

Similarly, while American opinion leaders think the U.S. is liked for its good works around the world, fewer than one-in-four leaders in all other regions agree. What U.S. influentials underestimate is the importance of the nation’s role as a technological and scientific leader in bolstering America’s image overseas. Two-thirds of foreign opinion leaders rate this as a major reason why people like the U.S.

The perception of the United States as the land of opportunity is what most opinion leaders ­ both in the United States and overseas ­ see as America’s strong suit. American democratic ideals also are thought to be appealing by majorities of leaders in most parts of the world, with Muslim countries not far behind.

While U.S. support for Israel is not seen as a major factor in why ordinary people dislike the United States, except in Muslim states, a 73% majority of opinion leaders around the world believe the U.S. has been too supportive of Israel. Just 35% of American elites concur. And there is broad consensus among influentials that if the U.S. pressured Israel to create a Palestinian state, terrorism would be reduced ­ 67% of American leaders subscribe to that view, as do 74% of those overseas.

There is little indication that criticisms of the United States by anti-globalization activists hold much sway with people around the world. The growing power of U.S. multinational corporations is not seen as a leading factor in why the U.S. is disliked, except in Western Europe. The spread of American culture through movies, TV and music is at most a minor reason for animosity toward the U.S., according to foreign influentials. Looking forward, few see the sale of American products and the popularity of American entertainment being hurt by the war on terrorism.

When asked directly whether globalization has been a cause of terrorism, pluralities of opinion leaders viewed it as a minor factor at best. Nor is globalization likely to become a casualty of the war. The consensus is that the pace of globalization has barely slowed ­ and even this is seen as a temporary phenomenon by most opinion leaders, in the United States and abroad. This despite the fact that strong majorities see migration, travel and tourism being hurt by the war.

These findings are based on 275 interviews with influential people in politics, media, business, culture and government conducted by the Pew Research Center, Princeton Survey Research Associates and the International Herald Tribune, Nov. 12 to Dec. 13. Almost all interviewing was conducted after the fall of Kabul as the Taliban was in full retreat. Of the 275 interviews, 40 were conducted in the U.S. and approximately 10 were conducted in each of the countries listed. (See Survey Methodology for a fuller description of the survey design.)

This is the inaugural survey of “The Pew Global Attitudes Project,” a series of worldwide public-opinion surveys that will measure the impact of globalization, modernization, rapid technological and cultural change and recent terrorist events on the values and attitudes of 30,000 people in 25 countries worldwide. It will be conducted and released over the coming two years. (See project description.)