Turkey and Saudi Arabia are seen as supporting the spread of democracy in the region, while the U.S. and Israel are widely viewed as opposing it.

Majorities in all six predominantly Muslim nations have a favorable view of Turkey and most are also positive toward Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Saudi King Abdullah and his nation also receive high marks in many countries, though Turks and Tunisians are much less positive toward the monarchy. There is widespread disapproval of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Gloomy Economic Conditions

Less than a third in Pakistan, Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan say their current economic situation is good. Turkey is the only country where a majority thinks the economy is doing well.

In Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan, economic assessments today are more negative than they were in 2007, before the global economic crisis. For example, in Pakistan, 59% said the economy was doing well in 2007, compared with just 9% now. The Lebanese, meanwhile, have consistently said their economy is doing poorly over the past five years.

Turkey is the only predominantly Muslim country surveyed in both 2007 and 2012 where reviews of the economy have recovered from the economic crisis. Positive ratings today are 36 percentage points higher than the low of 21% in 2008.

The economic outlook over the next 12 months is more mixed. Pluralities or majorities in Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey believe the economy will improve. However, less than a third of Jordanians, Pakistanis and Lebanese say the same.

Respondents’ views about their country’s overall future are also divided, and appear to be related to expectations about the domestic economy. In the countries that are optimistic about their economic future – Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey – more than half are hopeful about the nation in general. In Pakistan, Jordan and Lebanon – where expectations about the economy are low – pluralities or majorities are pessimistic about the country’s future.

Optimism About Democracy

Solid majorities in the Arab nations surveyed believe the 2011 popular uprisings will lead to more democracy in the Middle East, including nearly three-quarters in Egypt and seven-in-ten in Tunisia. Roughly two-thirds in Jordan and Lebanon agree.

Attitudes are more divided in Turkey and Pakistan. In Turkey, about a third (34%) believes the Arab Spring will result in the spread of democracy in the region, while a similar percentage (37%) is doubtful and 29% express no opinion. In Pakistan, almost equal percentages say there will (21%) and will not (20%) be more democracy, though most say they do not know (59%).

Most See Turkey as Supportive of Democracy

Respondents generally see Turkey and Saudi Arabia, but not the U.S. or Israel, as proponents of democracy in the Middle East. Roughly six-in-ten or more in Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan and Turkey believe the Turkish government is supportive of democracy in the region. Pakistani opinion is also, on balance, positive.

Roughly two-thirds in Egypt and Jordan say the Saudi Arabian government favors democracy in the Middle East. About half (52%) of Pakistanis also hold this view. However, fewer than a third of Tunisians (31%) and Turks (18%) agree.

Opinion is decidedly more negative about the U.S. and Israel. Majorities or pluralities in Jordan, Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt believe the American government opposes democracy in the region. Broad majorities across nearly all the countries surveyed say the same about the Israeli government. Attitudes in Pakistan are, on balance, negative about both the U.S. and Israel, though many express no opinion (41% and 55%, respectively).

In Lebanon, opinions as to whether Turkey, Saudi Arabia or the U.S. favors democracy in the Middle East vary considerably by religious affiliation. More than eight-in-ten Shia Muslims in Lebanon believe each of these governments oppose democracy. Majorities of Sunni Muslims and Christians, meanwhile, see Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. in a positive light. When it comes to Israel, however, at least seven-in-ten across all three religious groups believe the Israeli government opposes the spread of democracy in the Middle East.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia Viewed Favorably

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi King Abdullah, and their nations, are more popular than either Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Seven-in-ten across the countries surveyed are favorable toward Turkey and about two-thirds (65%) have a positive view of its prime minister. The one exception is Pakistan, where the public is, on balance, positive toward Erdogan – 31% favorable and 11% unfavorable – but most (58%) are unfamiliar with him.

While in office, Erdogan has made a concerted effort to reach out to his regional neighbors and it appears his efforts are paying off. Since 2002, favorable ratings of Turkey have increased by 39 percentage points in Jordan and 29 points in Lebanon. Since 2011, ratings have also increased in Pakistan (+14) and Egypt (+6).

Opinion of Saudi Arabia is somewhat more mixed, though many are favorable. Egyptians, Jordanians and Pakistanis are overwhelmingly positive toward the country, and majorities in these countries also give Abdullah warm reviews.

Turkey and Tunisia, however, are decidedly negative toward Saudi Arabia and its ruler, with four-in-ten or fewer giving either the nation or the leader favorable ratings. The Lebanese are split: majorities of Sunnis (70%) – who constitute the dominant branch of Islam in Saudi Arabia – have a positive view of that country while 95% of Shia are unfavorable. Nearly two-thirds of Christians (64%) are positive.

Iran is much less popular across the six countries. Roughly four-in-ten or fewer in Tunisia, Lebanon, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan give Iran and its leader, Ahmadinejad, favorable reviews. Only in Pakistan is a majority favorable toward Iran, and almost half of Pakistanis are also positive toward Ahmadinejad.

Although attitudes about Iran are generally negative in Lebanon, large differences emerge between religious groups. Lebanese Shia Muslims (91%) are overwhelmingly favorable while Sunnis (95% negative) and Christians (68% negative) are unfavorable. Shia account for the overwhelming majority of Iran’s Muslims.

The Arab League, which played a major role in responding to the violence in Libya, receives mixed reviews. Majorities in Jordan, Egypt and Pakistan are favorable toward the organization. The Lebanese, Tunisians and Turks, however, are generally unfavorable.

Most give Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has led a brutal crackdown on protestors in his country, negative ratings. More than seven-in-ten in Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey hold unfavorable views.

In Lebanon, a majority is negative toward Assad, though a substantial minority is positive. Support for Assad is nearly universal (96%) among Shia Muslims in Lebanon, while just 8% of Sunnis and 34% of Christians are favorable.

In Pakistan, attitudes are, on balance, positive, though most are unfamiliar with him (64%). (For more on views about Syria and President Bashar al-Assad, see “Widespread Condemnation for Assad in Neighboring Countries,” released June 21, 2012).

More than a year after the first stirrings of the Arab Spring, there continues to be a strong desire for democracy in Arab and other predominantly Muslim nations. Solid majorities in Lebanon, Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and Jordan believe democracy is the best form of government, as do a plurality of Pakistanis.

Indeed, these publics do not just support the general notion of democracy – they also embrace specific features of a democratic system, such as competitive elections and free speech.

A substantial number in key Muslim countries want a large role for Islam in political life. However, there are significant differences over the degree to which the legal system should be based on Islam.

The United States is not seen as promoting democracy in the Middle East. In newly democratic Tunisia, only about three-in-ten believe the American response to the political upheaval in their country has had a positive impact.

Despite the tumult and uncertainty of the last year, views about democracy are mostly unchanged since 2011, although support has declined somewhat in Jordan. Enthusiasm for democracy tends to be generally less intense in Jordan and in Pakistan. It is consistently strong in Lebanon and Turkey.

While democratic rights and institutions are popular, they are clearly not the only priorities in the six Muslim majority nations surveyed. In particular, the economy is a top concern. And if they had to choose, most Jordanians, Tunisians and Pakistanis would rather have a strong economy than a good democracy. Turks and Lebanese, on the other hand, would prefer democracy. Egyptians are divided.

There is also a strong desire for Islam to play a major role in the public life of these nations, and most want Islam to have at least some influence on their country’s laws. Majorities in Pakistan, Jordan and Egypt believe laws should strictly follow the teachings of the Quran, while most Tunisians and a 44%-plurality of Turks want laws to be influenced by the values and principles of Islam, but not strictly follow the Quran.

About four-in-ten Lebanese say laws should not be influenced at all by the teachings of the Quran, although on this issue – as on many issues – views vary sharply along religious and sectarian lines. While 63% of Lebanese Christians and 38% of Sunni Muslims say laws should not be guided by the Quran, just 13% of Shia Muslims agree.

Just as opinions about religion and politics vary across these six nations, so do views about gender equality. Majorities in all six believe women should have equal rights as men, and more than eight-in-ten hold this view in Lebanon and Turkey. However, in Egypt – where the role of women in society has been a heavily debated issue throughout the post-Mubarak transition period – a slimmer 58%-majority favors equal rights, while 36% oppose the idea. Only 53% of Egyptian men endorse equal rights.

Moreover, while many support the general principle of gender equality, there is less enthusiasm for gender parity in politics, economics, and family life. For instance, many believe men make better political leaders, that men should have more of a right to a job than women when jobs are scarce, and that families should help choose a woman’s husband.

These are among the key findings from a survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted in six predominantly Muslim nations March 19 to April 20.¹ The poll, which is part of the broader 21-nation spring 2012 Global Attitudes survey, found considerable optimism – at least among Arab publics – about the prospects for democracy in the region. Solid majorities in Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan and Lebanon said the 2011 popular uprising would lead to more democracy in the Middle East. Turks and Pakistanis, on the other hand, were less hopeful.

This report includes a special section on Tunisian public opinion (see Part II). In the nation where the Arab Spring began, large majorities say they are dissatisfied with the country’s direction and its economic situation. While Tunisians embrace their country’s nascent democracy, they are divided over whether things in their country have actually gotten better since long-running dictator President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali was forced from office. Still, most are hopeful about Tunisia’s future and optimistic that the economy will improve in the next 12 months. And despite the dissatisfaction with current conditions, the ruling Islamist party Ennahda receives positive marks from 65% of Tunisians.

Both Democracy and Economy Are Priorities

Majorities in five of the six nations polled (and a plurality of Pakistanis) believe democracy is the best form of government. Moreover, there is a strong desire in these nations for specific democratic rights and institutions, such as competitive multi-party elections and freedom of speech.

Other goals are also clearly important. Many say political stability is a crucial priority, and even more prioritize economic prosperity. When respondents are asked which is more important, a good democracy or a strong economy, Turkey and Lebanon are the only countries where more than half choose democracy. Egyptians are divided, while most Tunisians, Pakistanis and Jordanians prioritize the economy.

Overall, views about the economic situation in these countries are grim, although Turkey is a notable exception. Nearly six-in-ten Turks (57%) say their country’s economy is in good shape, but at least seven-in-ten in Pakistan, Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan offer negative assessments.

A Major Role for Islam in Public Life

In five of six nations, solid majorities say Islam is already playing a large role in the country’s political life. In newly democratic Tunisia, where the Islamist party Ennahda won the largest share of votes in the recent parliamentary elections, fully 84% think Islam has a major role.

Similarly, in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood has won both parliamentary and presidential elections, 66% hold this view, up from 47% two years ago.

The view that Islam plays a large role in political life has also become more prevalent in Pakistan over the last two years. Meanwhile, more than six-in-ten in Turkey and Lebanon believe Islam is a major part of political life in their countries. This view is especially pervasive among Lebanese Christians – 75% think Islam has a major role.

The clear exception on this issue is Jordan. Only 31% of Jordanians believe Islam currently plays a large part in their nation’s political life, while 63% say it has a small role. Among the majority of Jordanians who say Islam is playing a small role, 80% say it is a bad thing that Islam has only a minor part in the country’s politics.

Support for Gender Equality – but Not in All Circumstances

While majorities in all six countries support the principle of gender equality, there are significant differences between men and women on this issue. The most striking gender gap is in Jordan, where 82% of women but just 44% of men say women should have the same rights as men.

Moreover, while there is majority support for the idea of gender equality, this does not necessarily apply to specific aspects of public and private life. For instance, at least half in Tunisia, Pakistan, Turkey and Jordan say men make better political leaders. When it comes to economics, most say women should be able to work outside the home, but most also believe that when jobs are scarce, jobs for men should be the first priority. And in the personal realm, many of those surveyed believe a woman’s family should help choose her husband, rather than the woman herself – indeed, in Pakistan and Jordan this is the majority view.

Limited Support for Extremist Groups

Extremist groups are largely rejected in predominantly Muslim nations, although significant numbers do express support for radical groups in several countries. For instance, while there is no country in which a majority holds a favorable opinion of the Palestinian organization Hamas, it receives considerable support in Tunisia, Jordan and Egypt.

The militant Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah receives its highest overall ratings in Tunisia, where nearly half express a positive opinion. Sizable minorities in both Jordan and Egypt also have a favorable view, but Hezbollah’s image has been declining in both countries in recent years. In its home country, views about Hezbollah are sharply divided along sectarian lines: 94% of Shia, 33% of Christians, and 5% of Sunnis give the group favorable marks.

Across all six nations, less than 20% have a positive opinion about al Qaeda or the Taliban. In Turkey and Lebanon, support for these groups is in the single digits. However, fully 19% of Egyptians rate these extremist organizations favorably.

Turkey and Erdogan Popular

Turkey, which has significantly increased its diplomatic profile in recent years, particularly in the Middle East, is held in high regard in the predominantly Muslim nations surveyed. Solid majorities in all six nations express a favorable opinion of Turkey. Moreover, its leader, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the moderate Islamist party AKP, also receives largely positive reviews.

Most of those surveyed believe Turkey favors democracy in the Middle East, including roughly three-in-four in the newly democratic nations of Egypt and Tunisia. Fewer say this about Saudi Arabia, although more than half in Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan think the oil-rich kingdom does support democracy in the region.

Yet, relatively few believe the United States wants democracy in the Middle East, including just 37% in Egypt, a major recipient of American democracy promotion funds in recent years. Exceedingly few think Israel favors democracy in the Middle East – just 10% or less in all six nations hold this view.

Tunisians Unhappy With State of Country, but Still Hopeful

Nearly eight-in-ten Tunisians (78%) are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country and a similar number (83%) describe current economic conditions as bad. And the country is split over whether it is better off now that Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali is no long in power.

However, Tunisians show few signs of wanting a return to autocracy. A majority says a democratic government is preferable, even if that means some risk of instability, and large majorities deem rights and institutions such as a fair judiciary, honest elections, and free speech very important.

And while they are glum about current conditions, they are hopeful about the future. Two-thirds (66%) are optimistic about Tunisia’s future, and 75% think the country’s economy will improve in the next 12 months.

The ruling Ennahda party gets largely positive reviews – 65% have a favorable opinion of the Islamist organization, which was banned from politics during the Ben Ali era. Two Ennahda leaders, party co-founder Rached Ghannouchi and current Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali, are viewed favorably by about two-in-three Tunisians.

The U.S. receives mixed reviews in Tunisia. Overall, 45% have a favorable and 45% an unfavorable view of the U.S. However, President Barack Obama gets mostly poor marks – 57% say they have little or no confidence that Obama will do the right thing in world affairs. And there is no consensus among Tunisians about how the U.S. has handled the political changes taking place in their country – 31% believe the American response has had a positive effect, 27% say it has been negative, and 25% volunteer that the U.S. has had no impact.

Also of Note

• While few in Tunisia and Egypt describe the current economy as good, there is optimism about the future – 75% of Tunisians and 50% of Egyptians believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months.
• On balance, opinions about Iran are negative, although Pakistan is a clear exception – 76% of Pakistanis have a favorable view of Iran, and 47% rate President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad positively.
• Syrian President Bashar al-Assad generally receives very negative ratings across the nations included in the survey (For more on views about Syria and President Bashar al-Assad, see “Widespread Condemnation for Assad in Neighboring Countries,” released June 21, 2012).

Nonetheless, most Tunisians are also optimistic about their country’s future and the economy. They prioritize having a democratic government rather than a stable, non-democratic one. And they say it is very important to establish key features of democracy – such as a fair judiciary, honest elections and free speech.

Regarding the role of religion in government, Tunisians are more likely to look towards Turkey as a role model, rather than Saudi Arabia.

Dismal Conditions, but Optimistic About Future

A broad majority (78%) of Tunisians are dissatisfied with the direction of their country. Just two-in-ten are satisfied. Similarly, roughly eight-in-ten (83%) say current economic conditions are bad, while only 17% think the economy is
doing well.

Despite deep concern about the state of the nation, there is widespread optimism. Almost two-thirds (66%) are hopeful about the future of the country, while just 27% are pessimistic. In addition, three-quarters believe the economy will get better over the next twelve months, while 12% say it will stay about the same and 12% expect conditions to worsen.

Supporters of the ruling Ennahda party are particularly optimistic about the nation’s future (76%) and the economy (82%).

Mixed Reviews of Post-Ben Ali Era

Tunisians are almost evenly divided on whether their country is better off now that Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali is no longer in power. Almost half (45%) say things are better, but a similar percentage (42%) believes the country is worse off.

Ennahda supporters are more likely to believe things are better off (56%) with Ben Ali out of office.

Young people, however, are more likely to say things are worse off now – 50% of 18-to-29 year-olds hold this view versus 35% of those age 50 and older.

Democracy Is a Priority, but So Is Economy

Despite gloomy reviews of national conditions after Ben Ali’s ouster, there is significant support for democracy among Tunisians. A majority (55%) prefers to have a democratic government even if there is some risk of political instability. Only about four-in-ten (38%) say they would rather have a stable government even if there is a risk it will not be fully democratic.

In addition, respondents name key democratic principles as top priorities for Tunisia’s future. Roughly eight-in-ten say it is very important for the country that the judicial system treats everyone the same (79%) and that there are honest elections with a choice of at least two political parties (77%).

Majorities also cite the freedom to openly criticize the government (64%) and having a media that can report news without government censorship (57%) as top priorities. Another key concern for the future is that women have the same rights as men (59%).

While democratic principles are high priorities, so are the economy and security. Improving the economy ranks as the most important priority (92%). And nearly eight-in-ten (79%) say that it is very important to maintain law and order.

Much lower priorities are: ensuring that religious parties can be part of the government (48%) and being able to access the internet without government censorship (45%).

There are few demographic differences in priorities for the country. However, women (67%) are more likely than men (50%) to say equal rights for women is very important.

Turkey Is Model for Religion in Politics

When asked which is a better model for the role of religion in Tunisia’s government – Turkey or Saudi Arabia – a majority names the more secular Turkey as the ideal, while just 18% choose Saudi Arabia. Another 15% volunteer that neither model is appropriate.

Young people and the highly educated are especially likely to name Turkey as the preferred model. Two-thirds of 18-to-29 year-olds choose Turkey, compared with 53% of those age 50 and older. Nearly seven-in-ten college graduates (69%) say the same, but just half (51%) of those with a primary education or less do so.

The Future for Women

Few Tunisians are concerned about the impact of the Ennahda-led government on women’s rights. Roughly half (48%) believe women will have the same number of rights under the Islamist ruling party as they have had in the past, while another 17% say women will have more rights. Around three-in-ten (29%) believe women will have fewer rights under the new government.

Young people are especially likely to believe the Ennahda-led government will give women fewer rights. More than a third (36%) of 18-to-29 year-olds say women will lose rights, while just 22% of those age 50 and older believe the same. There is no significant difference between men and women on this question.

As Turks prepare for national elections on June 12, they are increasingly upbeat about the direction of their country. And at a time when publics around the world generally remain gloomy about their economies, Turks are becoming more positive. This bodes well for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), whom most observers believe will win a decisive victory in the elections.

Under Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey has played a more assertive role in international affairs, and most Turks give the prime minister positive marks on foreign policy: 62% have confidence that he will do the right thing in world affairs. Moreover, Erdogan is also popular in neighboring Arab nations – most Egyptians, Jordanians, Lebanese, and Palestinians express confidence in the Turkish leader. In contrast, solid majorities in Israel, Germany, Spain, and France have little or no confidence in him.

These are among the key findings from a survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted March 21 to April 26. The poll also finds that while Turks continue to favor joining the European Union, enthusiasm for EU ascension has waned in recent years. And there is no consensus about whether Turkey’s future lies more with Europe or the Middle East: 17% of Turks believe their country should look to Europe in the future; 25% say the Middle East; and 37% volunteer that both regions are equally important.

An Increasingly Positive Public Mood

Turks are almost evenly divided about the current direction of their country: 49% are dissatisfied with the way things are going and 48% are satisfied. This is a notable improvement from last year, when 60% were dissatisfied and 38% were satisfied. And it is a dramatic change from 2009, when three-in-four Turks felt the country was on the wrong track.

Opinions about the state of the country are strongly associated with religiosity. A solid majority (64%) of Muslim Turks who pray five times a day are satisfied with the direction of the nation. Among those who pray at least once a week but less than five times daily, only 41% are satisfied. And among those who hardly ever pray or only do so during religious holidays, just 32% express satisfaction.

Supporters of the AKP – who tend to express high levels of personal religiosity – are especially likely to believe the country is headed in the right direction: 73% say they are satisfied. Older Turks are also happier with the state of the country – 56% of those ages 50 and older are satisfied, compared with 46% of those ages 30-49 and 42% of people under 30.

Views about the national economy have improved over the last year. Currently, 49% say the economy is in good shape, while 48% describe economic conditions as bad. In the spring 2010 Pew Global Attitudes survey, 65% rated the economy poorly and just 34% said it was in good shape.

Turkish assessments of the economy are much more positive today than when Erdogan won office nearly a decade ago. In a 2002 poll, conducted a few months before Erdogan’s AKP won its first national election, only 14% said economic conditions were good. By the next national election in 2007, this had risen to 46%.

As the global economy started to slump, Turkish views about their economic situation turned negative in 2008, and stayed negative through 2010, before recovering to some extent in the current poll.

Erdogan Receives High Marks in Turkey – and in Arab Nations

As he nears the end of his second term in office, Prime Minister Erdogan gets positive ratings for his handling of foreign affairs. About six-in-ten (62%) Turks have a lot or some confidence in Erdogan to do the right thing in world affairs, while one-third have little or no confidence in him.

The prime minister receives especially high marks from supporters of his own party (86% a lot or some confidence). And views about Erdogan are strongly linked to religiosity – 73% of Muslim Turks who pray five times daily voice confidence in him; 60% of those who pray at least once per week but less than five times a day are confident; and only 42% of those who hardly ever pray or do so just during religious holidays express a positive view about Erdogan’s leadership in world affairs.

Beyond Turkey’s borders, Erdogan is also popular in a number of neighboring Arab nations. Strong majorities of Egyptians (78% a lot or some confidence), Jordanians (72%), and Lebanese (64%) express confidence in the Turkish prime minister, who, along with his Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, has in many ways raised Turkey’s profile on the world stage in recent years.

Erdogan, for example, has received considerable attention for breaking with previous Turkish policy and taking a more confrontational approach toward Israel regarding Israeli policies in the West Bank and Gaza. In the Palestinian territories themselves, Erdogan receives somewhat less support than in other Arab nations, with 52% expressing confidence in the Turkish leader and 47% saying they have little or no confidence in him. He is much more popular in the West Bank (61% a lot or some confidence) than in Gaza (35%).

Israelis overwhelmingly assign Erdogan negative ratings – only 9% express confidence in him, while 87% lack confidence. However, among Israel’s minority Arab community, Erdogan is generally popular, with 60% voicing confidence in him. Nearly all Israel Jews surveyed (95%) express little or no confidence.

The prime minister also fares poorly in Western Europe – clear majorities in Germany (69%), Spain (63%), and France (59%) give Erdogan a negative assessment. In the other European and predominantly Muslim nations where this question was asked, large numbers are unable to offer an opinion about the Turkish leader.

Turkey, as a nation, is generally popular in the countries surveyed. Majorities in all of the predominantly Muslim nations polled (the Palestinian territories, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Indonesia, and Pakistan) express a favorable opinion of Turkey. But the country also receives a positive rating in much of Europe, including Russia (66% favorable), France (61%), Ukraine (58%), and Britain (54%).

Israel and Germany are the clear outliers on this question. Fully 83% of Israelis have an unfavorable opinion of Turkey, although once again there are significant differences between the country’s Jewish (5% favorable) and Arab (68% favorable) communities. In Germany, home to a large Turkish minority, just over half (54%) express an unfavorable view of Turkey.

Turkey’s Future

There is no consensus as to whether in the future Turkey should look to Europe (17%) or to the Middle East (25%). Nearly four-in-ten (37%) volunteer that both are equally important, while 6% say that neither are important and 15% do not offer an opinion.

By a narrow margin, Turks favor joining the European Union. Currently, 52% endorse EU membership, while 42% oppose it. While support for EU ascension has not changed substantially in Turkey since last year, it has dropped sixteen percentage points since 2005, when 68% favored joining the EU.

Younger Turks are more likely to favor joining Europe: 61% of those ages 18 to 29 hold this view, compared with 50% of 30 to 49 year-olds, and 43% of those age 50 and older. EU membership is also especially popular among the country’s Kurdish minority (76% favor).

On balance, publics in most of the EU member nations surveyed support Turkish membership in the organization. Majorities in Spain (62%) and Britain (51%) favor membership, as do pluralities in Lithuania (46%) and Poland (45%). However, majorities hold the opposite view in two of the EU’s most powerful countries: Germany (71% oppose) and France (61%).

Among the EU countries surveyed, there has been little change since the Pew Global Attitudes Project last asked this question in 2005, although support for Turkish EU membership has slipped slightly in Spain (-6 percentage points), Britain (-6), and Poland (-6).

Confidence in Merkel

Majorities in all five EU countries included in the survey have confidence in German Chancellor Merkel to do the right thing regarding world affairs. Outside of the European Union, confidence in Merkel is less common, and many are unfamiliar with the German leader.

Confidence in Merkel is most widespread in France, where she is even more popular than she is at home and more popular than French President Sarkozy. About eight-in-ten French (81%) have confidence in the chancellor to do the right thing in international affairs. A large majority (72%) in Merkel’s home country hold the same view. In Britain, 60% express confidence in Merkel, up from roughly half (51%) the previous year. Similarly, 57% in Spain voice positive opinions about Merkel’s leadership on foreign affairs, a modest improvement since 2009 (49%). More striking is the improvement in Polish views of Merkel; 58% voice a favorable view this year, compared with 39% last year.

Pluralities in Japan (46%), the U.S. (43%) and China (40%) have confidence in the German leader, although in all three nations many do not offer an opinion.

Negative views of Merkel are far more common in the Middle East. Seven-in-ten in Egypt have little or no confidence in the chancellor to do the right thing in world affairs. Roughly six-in-ten hold the same negative views in Jordan (64%) and Lebanon (61%).

Turks also remain unconvinced of Merkel’s foreign policy leadership skills. As in past surveys, a large majority in Turkey (69%) currently have little or no confidence in the chancellor’s international decisions, while only a few say the opposite (6%). Many Turks (25%) do not offer an opinion of the German leader.

Elsewhere around the world, many offer no opinion about Merkel. Roughly four-in-ten or more in Indonesia (39%), India (46%), Mexico (53%), Argentina (62%) and Pakistan (65%) said they could not assess her ability to handle world affairs.

Confidence in Sarkozy

Publics in European Union countries express far less confidence in French President Sarkozy than in German Chancellor Merkel. Germany and Poland are the only European Union countries surveyed in which a majority – albeit a slim one – expresses confidence in Sarkozy to do the right thing in world affairs; 52% in both nations have a positive view of him.

In France, fewer people have confidence (47%) in their president than do not (53%). Just one year earlier, positive views of Sarkozy (53%) outranked negative ones (47%). Favorable views of the French president are even less common in Britain (37%) and Spain (39%).

Four-in-ten in Russia and the U.S. have confidence in Sarkozy’s global leadership, and many in both countries do not offer an opinion.

A majority in only one of the three Middle Eastern publics surveyed has faith in Sarkozy’s foreign policy leadership skills. More than half of Lebanese (53%) trust the French president to do the right thing in world affairs. In contrast, seven-in-ten in Egypt (70%) and 63% in Jordan have little or no confidence in the French leader.

As in past surveys in Turkey, 71% currently have little or no confidence in Sarkozy’s handling of foreign affairs, while only a few (3%) have a positive view. Many Turks (26%) do not offer an opinion. Even larger proportions in Pakistan (65%), Mexico (49%), Argentina (48%), India (47%), and Indonesia (36%) express no view of the French president.

Views of Medvedev

Confidence in Russian President Medvedev to do the right thing in world affairs is limited, although the assessment is more positive than last year.

Positive views of Medvedev have become more common in all five EU member states surveyed. In Poland, confidence in the Russian president has more than doubled in the last year, rising from 17% to 36%. Germans give Medvedev his highest marks among the EU nations polled – half now express confidence in him, up 18 percentage points from 2009. Significant increases have also taken place in France (+13 percentage points), Britain (+9 points) and Spain (+6 points).

In Turkey, negative assessments of Medvedev continue to prevail; 69% say they lack confidence in Medvedev, up slightly from 2009 (64%). Many Turks say they are unfamiliar with the Russian leader.

Similarly, negative views of President Medvedev are widespread among the Middle Eastern publics surveyed. A large majority in Jordan (82%) have no confidence in the Russian leader’s ability to handle world affairs, an increase from the previous year (73%). Similarly, 73% of Egyptians are critical of Medvedev, while in Lebanon 55% hold the same negative view.

In only five countries outside of Russia are ratings of Medvedev more positive than negative. Pluralities in Kenya (45%), India (44%), China (43%), Nigeria (41%) and the U.S. (38%) express confidence in his ability to handle foreign policy. American opinions of Medvedev have grown more positive since last year, when 30% expressed confidence in him. Many in Argentina (62%), Pakistan (59%), Mexico (52%), India (39%) and Indonesia (35%) offer no opinion of the Russian leader.

Overwhelmingly, Medvedev remains popular at home – a large majority of Russians (74%) have confidence in their president. Similarly, roughly three-quarters (77%) of Russians back Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. In 2009, large majorities also expressed confidence in Medvedev (76%) and Putin (81%).

Opinions of Germany

Amidst the recent chaos of the Greek debt crisis and negative German reaction to bail-outs of other European countries, European and Russian public views of Germany remain resolutely favorable.

Nine-in-ten among the French (91%) have a favorable view of Germany. More than seven-in-ten in Spain (78%), Poland (78%), Russia (75%) and Britain (72%) also offer a positive opinion of Germany.

European attitudes toward Germany were similarly complimentary in recent years. In 2007, large majorities in France (90%), Russia (77%), Spain (76%) and Britain (74%) held favorable views of Germany. Polish views of Germany are substantially more favorable now (78%) than in 2007 (67%).

Opinions of Russia

Overall, majorities or pluralities in 9 of 21 countries outside of Russia hold a favorable view of Russia. There have been some significant improvements in Russia’s image since last year, especially among EU member states and in the U.S. About half in France (51%) and Germany (50%) now express a favorable opinion of Russia, an increase of eight percentage points in both nations. An even larger rise has occurred in Poland, where 45% have a positive view, compared with just 33% in 2009. Favorable views have also become more common in the U.S. (+6 percentage points) and Spain (+4 points).

In contrast to trends in some parts of Europe and the U.S., Turkish views of Russia remain negative. As in previous years, more than six-in-ten (65%) Turks currently express an unfavorable view of Russia.

Two of the three publics surveyed in the Middle East also offer critical views of Russia. Majorities in Jordan (58%) and Egypt (58%) currently voice a negative assessment of Russia. Just one year earlier, Egyptian attitudes were nearly evenly divided. In contrast, 55% of Lebanese express positive views of Russia.

Negative views of Russia tend to predominate in Asia. A majority of Japanese (60%) express unfavorable views of Russia, although that figure is down from 68% in 2009. In Indonesia, 44% voice negative opinions of Russia. Similarly, 45% of South Koreans are critical of Russia, up from 35% the previous year. In contrast, half of Indians (51%) and a plurality of Chinese (49%) hold a positive opinion of Russia.

In Africa, favorable views of Russia outnumber negative ones. A majority of Nigerians (53%) hold a positive opinion of Russia. Similarly, in Kenya 47% express a positive view, up from 35% the previous year.

Views of the European Union

Views of the European Union have changed little in the last year, at least among the EU member states surveyed. Elsewhere, the EU’s popularity has also remained steady or grown. Majorities or pluralities in 17 of the 22 countries surveyed have a favorable view of the EU. However, majorities in Jordan (67%), Turkey (57%) and Egypt (55%) express a negative view of the EU.

Support for the Brussels-based institution is widespread among the five EU member countries included in the survey. Overwhelming majorities in Poland (81%) and Spain (77%) express favorable opinions of the EU. More than six-in-ten hold the same view in France (64%) and Germany (62%). Given past trends, it is not surprising that British enthusiasm for the EU is more muted; only 49% voice a positive opinion. British favorability ratings of the EU have hovered around 50% since 2004.

A large majority of Russians (69%) hold favorable views of the EU. In Asia, enthusiasm for the EU is widespread and has improved since last year. Majorities in South Korea (75%), Japan (73%) and Indonesia (58%), and a plurality in China (47%) express a favorable attitude toward the EU. The EU is more popular now than in 2009 in Japan and China. In contrast, pluralities in Pakistan (45%) and India (38%) hold unfavorable views of the EU, though many do not offer an opinion of this European institution in either country.

Strong majorities in Kenya (80%) and Nigeria (67%) see the EU in a positive light. Moreover, positive views of the EU are far more common now in Kenya than last year (+18 percentage points).

Turkey and the European Union

Turkey has long hoped to join the EU, but Turkish public sentiment toward the Brussels-based institution remains decidedly unenthusiastic. Currently, only 28% of Turks hold a positive view of the EU, a slight improvement from 2009 (22%) but still down substantially from 2004 (58% favorable).

Moreover, while a majority (54%) of Turks are still in favor of Turkey becoming an EU member, this is substantially fewer than in 2005 (68%). The intensity of Turkish interest in joining the EU has also dropped substantially. Far fewer Turks now strongly favor (16%) their country’s accession to the EU than in 2005 (31% strongly favor).

Views of NATO

NATO is viewed positively by majorities in the U.S., Poland, and Western European member states. However, NATO is much less popular among Germans than in the past.

Enthusiasm for NATO is most widespread in Poland – the newest member of the Alliance polled; 77% express a favorable view of this security organization.

NATO also remains popular elsewhere in Europe, as well as in the U.S. Majorities in France (68%), Britain (60%), and Spain (53%) hold positive views of the body. A majority in Germany (57%) also offers favorable opinions of NATO, although this represents a substantial decrease in positive views from fall 2009 (73%).

Germans who support removing troops from Afghanistan are less likely to hold a favorable view of NATO (45%) than those who want to keep troops there (76%). Consistent with past surveys, more than twice as many Americans favor NATO (54%) as view it negatively (21%).

Opinions of NATO are improving in Russia – the only non-member state where this question was asked. Currently, Russian views of this Western security organization are evenly split; 40% express a favorable opinion while 40% view NATO unfavorably. In the fall of 2009, only 24% of Russians held a positive view of NATO while 58% voiced a negative one.

The Obama administration has exerted a considerable amount of diplomatic energy on Turkey: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited there in March, the president himself followed in April and next week Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will call on the White House. Nonetheless, the administration continues to face serious challenges in this strategically important nation. While overall ratings for the U.S. have improved throughout much of the world, in Turkey they remain dismal — only 14% of Turks expressed a positive view of the U.S. in the spring 2009 Pew Global Attitudes survey, the lowest rating among the 25 nations included in the poll.

Still, there are modest signs of a potential for improvement. While just one-third of Turks have confidence that President Obama will do the right thing in world affairs, this is a significant increase from 2008, when only 2% voiced confidence in then-President Bush. And while most Turks continue to oppose U.S.-led anti-terrorism efforts and most still believe the U.S. could be a military threat to their country some day, these views are less common than they were in the waning years of the Bush administration.

As the survey reveals, the U.S. is not the only major power receiving negative reviews in Turkey — China, Russia and the European Union also get poor ratings.

U.S. Image Remains Negative

Turkish views of the U.S. have not always been so downbeat. U.S. State Department polling from the beginning of this decade found just over half (52%) of Turks expressing a favorable opinion of the U.S. However, the widely unpopular Iraq war led to a steep decline in America’s image, and it has essentially never recovered.

Similarly, views of the American people remain low in Turkey — just 14% say they have a favorable opinion of Americans. As with ratings of the U.S. overall, Turkey’s is the lowest rating among the 25 nations surveyed.

Concerns about American unilateralism also continue. Just 15% of Turks think the U.S. considers the interests of countries like theirs when making foreign policy decisions — again, the lowest percentage among the countries surveyed.

A Few Promising Signs

As noted above, there are some indications that Turkish views of the U.S., and of American foreign policy, are turning less negative. For instance, in 2007, 79% opposed U.S.-led efforts to combat terrorism, compared with 55% in 2009.

Similarly, fewer Turks now see the U.S. as a potential military threat. Just over half (54%) say the U.S. could pose a military threat to their country some day — a rather striking finding, since Turkey is a longtime NATO ally of the U.S. However, this is down significantly from 76% two years ago.

And while four-in-ten still consider the U.S. an enemy of their country, this is a sharp decrease from 70% in the 2008 poll.

In addition, fewer Turks now characterize America’s influence in their country as negative. Last year, seven-in-ten said the U.S. economy was having a harmful effect on the Turkish economy; this year, 55% expressed this view. In 2008, 68% described America’s overall impact in their country as negative, compared with 45% today.

Dim Views of Other Major Powers

One point to keep in mind about the largely negative ratings the U.S. has received in Turkey over the last few years is that America is not alone in this regard. Other major powers also receive harsh assessments from the Turkish public.

In the 2009 survey, just 16% expressed a favorable view of China, down from 40% in 2005. Frustration with stagnated negotiations to admit Turkey into the European Union is also reflected in the survey data — 22% said they had a positive opinion of the EU in the 2009 poll, down 36 percentage points from five years ago. Russia fares even worse than China or the EU: only 13% of Turks gave it a favorable rating.

Earlier this month, Turkey threatened to curtail U.S. military access to Turkish bases and recalled its ambassador from Washington for consultations. These actions came in response to the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee’s approval of a resolution asserting that the Turkish massacre of Armenians nearly a century ago constitutes genocide. Compounding these tensions, and despite strong objections from the United States, the Turkish parliament recently authorized its government to conduct military incursions into northern Iraq in order to combat the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, which uses northern Iraq as a staging area for incursions into Turkey.

Turkey is a strategic American ally. It not only serves as a bridge between East and West but also is one of the few Muslim-majority countries to have friendly relations with Israel, so these strong reactions from the Turkish government could be quite ominous. But do these actions reflect some deeper discontent among the Turkish public, or are they simply the Turkish government’s response to current, and perhaps temporary, crises in the international arena?

Views of America

Recent Pew Global Attitudes surveys show that negative views of the United States are indeed widespread and growing in Turkey. In fact, the United States receives a lower favorability rating (9%) in Turkey than in any of the 47 countries in the 2007 Pew Global Attitudes survey. This is down considerably from a 30% favorability rating in Pew’s 2002 poll and from 52% in a 2000 State Department poll. There also has been a correspondingly sharp drop in the favorability rating for the American people (from 32% in 2002 to a mere 13% in 2007).

These negative views are also seen in Turks’ opinions on American foreign policy. For example, just 9% of Turks support the U.S.-led war on terror, and only 14% think the U.S. considers the interests of countries like Turkey when making foreign policy decisions. Moreover, according to a 2006 Pew poll, a large majority (64%) of Turks believe that the efforts to establish a stable democratic government in Iraq will fail. This is the largest percentage in any of the 15 countries surveyed in 2006, including four other predominantly Muslim countries (29% in Jordan expressed this view, 25% in Egypt, 16% in Indonesia and 14% in Pakistan). Not surprisingly, in light of these negative views of the U.S. and American foreign policy, 86% of Turks now favor removing U.S. troops from Iraq, according to the 2007 Pew poll.

View of the EU and the West

Negative views also appear to be growing among Turks with respect to the European Union and to Westerners in general. Such negativity toward the EU is likely associated with disillusionment over Turkey’s stalled bid to join the union. For instance, the favorability rating for the EU dropped from 58% in 2004 to 27% in 2007.

A combination of all these factors seems to be generating more negative views of Westerners generally. Of the 10 Muslim publics surveyed in the 2006 Pew Global Attitudes poll, for instance, the Turkish public showed the most negative views, on average, toward Westerners. The survey asked Muslims whether they associate people in Western countries such as the U.S. and European nations with a series of negative and positive characteristics, including “arrogant,” “greedy,” “immoral,” “selfish,” and “violent,” as well as “generous” and “honest.” The two positive characteristics were reverse coded to reflect the opposite. For this analysis, a negativity index that ranges from zero (extremely positive) to 7 (extremely negative) was created using this series of questions.¹

On this scale, the average for Turkey is 5.2, which is a higher level of negativity than is found in the other four Muslim-majority countries surveyed (Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan and Pakistan) as well as among the Muslim populations in Nigeria, Britain, Germany, France and Spain. The fact that German Muslims, who are predominantly of Turkish background, score much lower (3.2) on the index indicates that the negativity toward Westerners is not particular to Turks but rather to Turks in Turkey.

But Turkish discontent extends beyond views of the U.S. and Europe. For example, according to the same 2006 Pew poll, Turks also express lukewarm attitudes toward Arabs. While Muslims among other non-Arab publics overwhelmingly say they have a positive view of Arabs, only 46% of Turks express a positive opinion, among the lowest of the 10 Muslim publics surveyed; only German Muslims (who, as noted above, are predominately of Turkish origin) were less positive toward Arabs. And when asked whether they sympathize more with Israel or the Palestinians, fewer Turks expressed sympathies with Palestinians (64%) than did other countries in the Middle East.
Figure

Large and increasing majorities of Turks also hold unfavorable views of Christians and Jews. From 2004 to 2006, favorability toward Christians dropped by 15 percentage points, from 31% to 16%. Likewise, favorability toward Jews dropped 12 points, from 27% to 15%.

Secular-Religious Divide

This increasing negativity toward other countries and groups is taking place as Turkey experiences considerable internal conflicts related to the ongoing tensions between the country’s secular establishment and followers of the ruling, Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party (known in Turkey as the AKP).

Despite the strong tradition of secularism in Turkey, Islam remains central to the identity of most Turks. Indeed, religious identification is on the rise. Roughly half of Turkish Muslims (51%) surveyed in 2006 say they think of themselves first as Muslim rather than Turkish, while 19% identify primarily with their nationality, and 30% volunteer that they think of themselves as both. This represents a significant change from just one year earlier, when only 43% identified primarily as Muslim.

Although the percentage of Turks saying they have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Muslims has varied only slightly over time (88% in 2004, 83% in 2005 and 88% in 2006), the number of Turks saying that they are very favorable toward Muslims has increased from 66% in 2004 to 74% in 2006.

The result of these trends is that Turkey today is increasingly more religious. And, unlike in the days of Turkey’s founder and first president Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, it is less inclined to look to the West for its solutions. In light of Turkey’s many discontents, it is perhaps not surprising that U.S. relations with this key ally are proving increasingly complicated.

Pope Benedict XVI’s trip to Turkey this week may well test the scholarly pontiff’s diplomatic skills. The visit — his first to a Muslim country since being elected pope — comes during a difficult period in Turkey’s relationship with the West. In Europe, a heated debate surrounds the granting of EU membership to Turkey. Meanwhile, the war in Iraq has created new strains for Turkish-American relations. And of course, the September controversy over Benedict’s remarks regarding Islam at Germany’s University of Regensburg has only added to these tensions.

A recent Pew Global Attitudes survey, conducted in April 2006, finds that public opinion in Turkey reflects this contentious atmosphere. For example, only 16% of Turks have a favorable view of Christians, down from 31% in 2004 — a sign of the challenges Benedict may face in trying to promote interfaith dialogue.

Turks generally have negative opinions of major Western countries, especially the United States. Only 12% of Turks have a favorable view of the U.S., down from 30% two years ago. American foreign policy is extremely unpopular — 70% say the Iraq war, which Turkey fears will further embolden its own Kurdish minority, has made the world more dangerous and 77% oppose the U.S.-led war on terrorism.

However, France does not fare much better — 61% say they have an unfavorable view of France, while only 18% hold a favorable opinion. Germany, home to a large number of Turkish immigrants, receives somewhat more positive marks, with Turks divided between those with favorable (43%) and unfavorable (41%) opinions.

Western leaders are remarkably unpopular in Turkey. Only 3% of Turks say they have a lot or some confidence in President George W. Bush to do the right thing in world affairs. While Bush is the most unpopular Western leader included on the survey, France’s Jacque Chirac (5% a lot or some confidence), Britain’s Tony Blair (7%), and Germany’s Angela Merkel (11%) are not far behind.

Turks also hold many negative views about the people of Western countries. Americans, for example are rated negatively by 69% of Turks. And when Muslims in Turkey were presented with a number of negative characteristics and asked if each one describes people in Western countries, such as the United States and Europe, solid majorities said they did associate these traits with Westerners. Roughly two-in-three Turks see Westerners as violent (70%), selfish (69%), arrogant (67%), and fanatical (67%) (for more on this, see the Pew Global Attitudes Project’s The Great Divide, June 22, 2006).

Turkey’s Secular-Religious Divide

Despite the strong tradition of secularism in modern Turkey, Islam remains central to the identity of most Turks, and indeed religious identification is on the rise. Roughly half of Turkish Muslims (51%) say they think of themselves first as Muslim rather than Turkish, while 19% identify primarily with their nationality, and 30% volunteer that they think of themselves as both. This represents a significant change from just one year ago, when only 43% identified primarily as Muslim.

Secular and religious identifiers share many of the same negative opinions about the West, but there are some important differences between these groups. For instance, secular identifiers are twice as likely as Muslim identifiers to have a favorable opinion of Christians; still, even among seculars, only one-in-four has a positive impression of Christians.

Secular and religious identifiers also differ over some of the hot button international issues affecting relations between the West and the Muslim world. When asked whom they sympathize with more in the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians, Muslim identifiers are especially likely to say they side with the Palestinians. And those who think of themselves primarily as Muslim are also particularly likely to believe the victory of Hamas in the recent Palestinian elections will be good for the Palestinian people.

Muslim identifiers take a much more positive view of Iran. Roughly six-in-ten (59%) have a favorable view of the country, compared with only 41% of secular identifiers. And those who think of themselves first as Muslim are also more likely to favor Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, although even among this group only 26% support the idea of an Iran armed with nuclear capabilities.