Special to New York Times

The Kremlin’s demand that the U.S. Agency for International Development cease its activities in Russia follows months of accusations by Vladimir Putin that recent anti-government protests in Russia are the result of meddling by the U.S. and other Western governments. However, many Russians may not be convinced that such meddling is a fact.

In the wake of the Russian presidential vote this past spring, a Pew Global Attitudes survey found that 58 percent of Russians believed the election protests were home-grown, rather than the result of Western governments attempting to destabilize Russia. Only 25 percent thought foreign powers were behind the protests. Moreover, 56 percent supported the protests for free elections, and fully 64 percent agreed that attending demonstrations gave people like themselves an opportunity to express their opinion.

Read the full commentary at New York Times

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was recently elected to his third term, is considerably less popular than Obama and Merkel. Majorities in most countries lack confidence in the Russian leader, and his ratings have slipped significantly over the last few years in Western Europe.

Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is largely unknown in many nations, although he does receive somewhat better ratings in the Middle East than the other leaders included on the survey.

Views of Merkel Still Mostly Positive in EU

Majorities or pluralities in eight of 21 countries express at least some confidence in German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ability to do the right thing regarding world affairs, while in eight countries majorities or pluralities have little or no confidence in her.

Confidence in Merkel is highest in her home country, where 77% express at least some confidence, up eight points since 2011.

Support for Merkel remains high in France, where seven-in-ten voice confidence in the German leader. However, this represents a ten percentage point drop since 2011. The chancellor is also relatively popular in the Czech Republic, where roughly two-thirds express at least some confidence in her ability to handle international affairs.

In Britain, around six-in-ten have a positive opinion of Merkel, but this is down six points from 2011. Merkel’s ratings have fallen most sharply in Spain, where 53% express confidence in the chancellor, down 16 points since last year.

Opinions of Merkel are more divided in Italy, where 49% have confidence in her and 45% do not. Meanwhile, she is incredibly unpopular in Greece, where around nine-in-ten (93%) have a negative opinion of her.

Outside of Europe, Merkel maintains her strongest support in Japan, where a 55%-majority backs the chancellor. Roughly half (48%) of Russians express confidence in her.

Negative views of Chancellor Merkel are prevalent in the Middle East, with solid majorities in Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon lacking confidence in the German leader.

More than four-in-ten Chinese (44%) lack confidence in Merkel, while just 27% rate her positively. Majorities in India and Pakistan have no opinion of her. She is also not well-known in Mexico, where 43% have no opinion.

Confidence in Putin Low

Majorities or pluralities in 16 of 21 nations have not too much or no confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin to do the right thing in world affairs. Only in Russia does a 69%-majority voice support for the newly re-elected president, although this is down from 75% in 2011 and 84% in 2007.

China is the only other country where Putin is on balance popular – half of the Chinese surveyed express a lot or some confidence in the Russian leader.

Less than a quarter in Germany, Britain, Italy and France have confidence in Putin. His ratings in these countries have declined since 2007, when he was wrapping up his second term as president, including double-digit decreases in Britain (-16 percentage points) and Germany (-10). In the U.S., 54% lack confidence in the Russian president.

Putin is unpopular in predominantly Muslim nations, with solid majorities of Egyptians (75%), Jordanians (72%), Turks (70%), and Lebanese (63%), as well as about half of Tunisians (51%), saying they do not have confidence in him.

The Japanese continue to have a low opinion of Putin – around two-thirds in Japan (68%) have not too much or no confidence in the Russian president. Most Indians do not offer an opinion.

Views of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon

Opinions of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon are mixed, and he is not well known in many of the nations surveyed. Confidence in Ban is highest in France and Germany, but he also receives plurality support in Japan, Britain and Poland.

In Greece, roughly three-quarters have little or no confidence in the UN Secretary-General’s handling of international affairs. Around six-in-ten in Spain agree.

Views of the Secretary-General are also negative in Turkey, Egypt, and Tunisia, while Jordanians are divided. As is often the case, opinions in Lebanon are sharply divided along sectarian lines. While 43% of all Lebanese have a lot or some confidence in Ban’s ability to handle international affairs, majorities of Sunnis (59%) and Christians (56%) have confidence in him. On the contrary, virtually no Shia Muslims in Lebanon (1%) have confidence in the Secretary-General, with 99% expressing no confidence. Ban’s negative ratings among Shia Muslims may be related in part to a UN tribunal investigating the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri that has indicted members of the militant Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah – also, Ban has recently called for Hezbollah to disarm.

Elsewhere, Ban is not well-known. Three-quarters in India have no opinion of him, as do 63% in Pakistan, 47% in Russia, and 41% in Mexico.

Views of British Prime Minister Cameron

Opinions in Europe are divided on British Prime Minister David Cameron. Nearly six-in-ten Czechs have confidence in Cameron’s ability to handle world affairs, as do 52% of Poles. In France and Germany, confidence in the British PM is evenly split. Meanwhile, opinions in Cameron’s home country are also divided, with 46% in Britain expressing a lot or some confidence and 53% not too much or no confidence in their leader’s performance in world affairs.

In other European nations, support for Cameron is on balance negative, with only 35% in Italy and Spain voicing confidence in him. As with other world leaders, Greeks rate the British PM negatively – just 10% have confidence in Cameron, while roughly eight-in-ten do not. Russians, for the most part, have no opinion (44%).

Ratings of Chinese President Hu

In his home country, an overwhelming majority expresses confidence in Chinese President Hu Jintao’s ability to handle world affairs. This support is virtually unchanged since last year.

However, views of Hu are negative in regional rival Japan, where three-quarters lack confidence in the Chinese leader.

In Pakistan, those who have an opinion generally rate Hu positively. Roughly four-in-ten (43%) say they have confidence in the Chinese leader, while 47% have no opinion. In neighboring India, a large majority (73%) do not have an opinion of President Hu.

Global approval of President Barack Obama’s policies has declined significantly since he first took office, while overall confidence in him and attitudes toward the U.S. have slipped modestly as a consequence.

Europeans and Japanese remain largely confident in Obama, albeit somewhat less so than in 2009, while Muslim publics remain largely critical. A similar pattern characterizes overall ratings for the U.S. – in the EU and Japan, views are still positive, but the U.S. remains unpopular in nations such as Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan.

Meanwhile, support for Obama has waned significantly in China. Since 2009, confidence in the American president has declined by 24 percentage points and approval of his policies has fallen 30 points. Mexicans have also soured on his policies, and many fewer express confidence in him today.

The Obama era has coincided with major changes in international perceptions of American power – especially U.S. economic power. The global financial crisis and the steady rise of China have led many to declare China the world’s economic leader, and this trend is especially strong among some of America’s major European allies. Today, solid majorities in Germany (62%), Britain (58%), France (57%) and Spain (57%) name China as the world’s top economic power.

Even though many think American economic clout is in relative decline, publics around the world continue to worry about how the U.S. uses its power – in particular its military power – in international affairs.

There remains a widespread perception that the U.S. acts unilaterally and does not consider the interests of other countries. In predominantly Muslim nations, American anti-terrorism efforts are still widely unpopular. And in nearly all countries, there is considerable opposition to a major component of the Obama administration’s anti-terrorism policy: drone strikes. In 17 of 20 countries, more than half disapprove of U.S. drone attacks targeting extremist leaders and groups in nations such as Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia.

Americans are the clear outliers on this issue – 62% approve of the drone campaign, including most Republicans (74%), independents (60%) and Democrats (58%).

These are among the principal findings from a 21-nation survey conducted by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project from March 17-April 20. The poll also finds that, despite disappointment with Obama’s policies, there is still considerable support for his re-election in many countries, especially in Europe. Roughly nine-in-ten in France (92%) and Germany (89%) would like to see him re-elected, as would large majorities in Britain (73%), Spain (71%), Italy (69%) and the Czech Republic (67%). Most Brazilians (72%) and Japanese (66%) agree. But in the Middle East there is little enthusiasm for a second term – majorities in Egypt (76%), Jordan (73%) and Lebanon (62%) oppose Obama’s re-election.

Overall Ratings for U.S. Mostly Positive

Majorities or pluralities in 12 countries express a favorable opinion of the United States, while the prevailing view is negative in only five nations. In three countries views are closely divided.

Attitudes toward the U.S. are generally more positive today than in 2008, the final year of the George W. Bush administration. The biggest improvements in America’s image have occurred among Europeans – in France, Spain, and Germany, the percentage of people with a positive view of the U.S. is at least 20 percentage points higher than in 2008.

However, some of the initial surge in pro-American sentiments that followed Obama’s election have waned in Western Europe, especially in Germany where 64% had a favorable opinion of the U.S. in 2009, compared with 52% today.

In Japan, 72% currently express a favorable opinion of the U.S., up from 50% four years ago. America’s image in Japan improved dramatically in 2011, due in part to American relief efforts following the devastating March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Fully 85% of Japanese respondents expressed a positive view of the U.S. in last year’s poll.

In a number of strategically important Muslim nations, America’s image has not improved during the Obama presidency. In fact, America’s already low 2008 ratings have slipped even further in Jordan and Pakistan.

Even in many nations where overall ratings for the U.S. remain low, however, certain aspects of American “soft power” are often well-regarded. For instance, the American way of doing business is especially popular in the Arab World – more than half in Lebanon (63%), Tunisia (59%), Jordan (59%) and Egypt (52%) say they like this element of America’s image.

Majorities or pluralities in 18 of 20 countries admire the U.S. for its science and technology, and most of the publics surveyed embrace American music, movies and television. Around the world, U.S. ideas about democracy and American ways of doing business have become more popular since Obama took office.

American soft power is often particularly appealing to young people. In particular, U.S. popular culture and American ideas about democracy are more popular among people under 30.

Still, even as they embrace certain features of American culture, people worry that it may crowd out their own cultures and traditions – majorities or pluralities in 17 of 20 countries say it is a bad thing that U.S. ideas and customs are spreading to their countries.

Disappointment With Obama’s Policies

While confidence in Obama has slipped, in many of the countries surveyed, people continue to express confidence in President Obama’s foreign policy leadership. In particular, he still gets extremely high ratings in much of Europe. More than seven-in-ten in Germany, France, Britain, the Czech Republic and Italy express confidence that Obama will do the right thing in world affairs. Big majorities in Japan and Brazil also hold this view.

There is little support for Obama, however, in the predominantly Muslim nations surveyed. Fewer than three-in-ten express confidence in him in Egypt, Tunisia, Turkey and Jordan. And roughly a year after he ordered the Abbottabad raid that killed Osama bin Laden, just 7% of Pakistanis have a positive view of Obama, the same percentage that voiced confidence in President George W. Bush during the final year of his administration.

Outside of Pakistan, however, Obama consistently receives higher ratings than Bush did in 2008. This is particularly true in Western Europe and Japan, but it is also true in several predominantly Muslim nations where Obama’s ratings – while not especially high – are nonetheless more positive than his predecessor’s.

In nearly every country where trends are available, support for Obama’s international policies has declined over the last three years. Even though most Europeans still endorse Obama’s policies, their enthusiasm has ebbed. Among the EU countries surveyed in both 2009 and 2012, a median of 78% approved of Obama’s policies in 2009, compared with 63% now. Among Muslim nations, the median has slipped from 34% to 15%. Major declines have also taken place in China, Japan, Russia and Mexico.

On a number of specific issues, there is a sense that Obama has not lived up to the expectations people had for him when he first took office. The 2009 Pew Global Attitudes survey found that many believed the new American president would act multilaterally, seek international approval before using military force, take a fair approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and make progress on climate change. As the current survey reveals, few now believe he has actually accomplished these things.

For instance, looking at the countries surveyed in both 2009 and 2012, a median of 56% in 2009 expected Obama to take significant steps to deal with climate change. Today, a median of just 22% think he has actually done this.

China’s Growing Economic Might

China’s image has slipped in several countries over the last year. The percentage of Japanese with a favorable opinion of China plummeted from 34% to 15%. In France, China’s favorability ratings dropped from 51% to 40%, and in Britain from 59% to 49%. And since last year, Americans have become less disposed to rate China positively (51% in 2011, 40% now).

However, perceptions of China’s economic power continue to grow. This is especially true in Europe, but the belief that China is the world’s top economy has become more common in the last year in other parts of the world as well, including Brazil, Japan, Turkey and Lebanon.

Views about the economic balance of power have shifted dramatically over time among the 14 countries surveyed each year from 2008 to 2012. In 2008, before the onset of the global financial crisis, a median of 45% named the U.S. as the world’s leading economic power, while just 22% said China. Today, only 36% say the U.S., while 42% believe China is in the top position.

Also of Note

• Global publics are much less interested in the 2012 U.S. presidential election than they were in the 2008 contest. For example, four years ago 56% of Germans were closely following the race, compared with just 36% now.
• Much like President Obama, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton receives largely positive marks in Western Europe, but is unpopular in the predominantly Muslim nations surveyed.
• German Chancellor Angela Merkel receives mostly favorable ratings in Europe – with the clear exception of Greece, where only 7% express confidence in her.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin is rated negatively in most of the countries surveyed, and Russia’s overall image has declined since last year in Western Europe and the U.S.

Following a winter of discontent Russians express an increased appetite for political freedom, and at the same time strongly endorse Vladimir Putin.

Compared with just a few years ago, more Russians believe that voting gives people like themselves an opportunity to express their opinion about the country’s governance, more feel that it is important to be able to openly criticize the government, and greater numbers see freedom of the press and honest elections as very important.

Consistent with the value placed on core democratic principles, a solid majority (64%) see attending protests as an opportunity to speak out about how the government is run, and more than half (56%) specifically approve of the mass demonstrations that followed the December 2011 parliamentary vote, which was marred by fraud allegations. In that regard, while a modest 56%-majority says they are satisfied with the outcome of the March 4, 2012 presidential election, just 47% believe that election was fair.

Nonetheless, the poll finds a number of indicators of support for the status quo. Most notably, 72% of Russians voice a favorable opinion of Vladimir Putin, while almost as many hold a positive opinion of Dmitri Medvedev (67%). Putin’s popularity is being fueled more by views of the economy and perceptions of social mobility than it is being hurt by democratic aspirations. Relatively few Russians express favorable views of other prominent political figures. Roughly four-in-ten or fewer have positive opinions of presidential contenders Gennady Zyuganov (39%), Mikhail Prokhorov (36%), Sergei Mironov (36%) and Vladimir Zhirinovsky (28%). Meanwhile, 54% of Russians are unfamiliar with government critic and protest organizer Alexei Navalny.

Further, as they have for most of the post-Soviet era, a majority of Russians continue to feel that relying on a leader with a strong hand in order to solve problems is more important than relying on a democratic form of government (57% vs. 32%). In addition, strong majorities say it is very important to live in a country where there is law and order (75%) and economic prosperity (71%). In fact, three-quarters say they would choose a strong economy over a good democracy.

These are among the principal findings from a nationwide survey of Russia by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 1,000 adults in Russia between March 19 and April 4, 2012. The poll finds that Russians are generally divided about their country’s direction as Putin begins his third term as president: 46% are satisfied with the way things are going in their country, while 45% are not. At home, the economy is a concern for many Russians, with only 32% describing the current economic situation as good. Meanwhile, in the international arena, a solid majority (73%) believe Russia deserves greater respect from other countries. The survey also finds persistent strains of ethnic nationalism among Russians, with about half (53%) saying Russia should be for Russians only, and 44% saying it is natural for Russia to have an empire.

Democratic Freedoms More Valued

Against the backdrop of protests over the conduct of elections and the state of democracy in Russia, increasing numbers of Russians endorse the importance of key civic freedoms and institutions. Looking back a full ten years, five of the six measures of democratic freedom tested by the Global Attitudes Project have witnessed double-digit increases in terms of the percentage of Russians describing them as “very important.”

As they have in the past, today Russians place the greatest value on a judiciary that treats all citizens equally (71%), but compared with 2009, more now also value a civilian-controlled military (up 14 percentage points), an uncensored media (up 12 points) and honest elections (up 11 points). The importance of free speech and religious freedom has grown more modestly over the past three years (up 7 and 5 percentage points, respectively).

Although growing numbers of Russians value civic freedoms and institutions, relatively few see these as a reality in their country. Roughly one-in-five or fewer say a fair judiciary (17%), honest elections (16%), uncensored media (15%) and a civilian-controlled military (14%) describe Russia very well. Slightly more (28%) say that freedom of speech is characteristic of their country, while almost half (46%) agree that citizens are generally free to practice their religion.

Comparing the percentage of Russians who place a high value on core political freedoms with the percentage who believe the same freedoms are a fact of life in Russia, it is possible to discern a growing gap between democracy’s promise and practice.

In light of this gap, it is not surprising to find only 31% of Russians are satisfied with the way democracy is working in their country. This sentiment is pervasive across demographic groups. And although those with a favorable view of Putin are somewhat more upbeat about the state of democracy in Russia (36% satisfied), even within this group a majority (57%) see room for improvement.

Voting, Protests Seen as Important

Despite the public’s disappointment with democratization in Russia, the number of people who say voting matters has actually risen. In 1991, when the Times Mirror Center, precursor to the Pew Research Center, first asked if voting gave people an opportunity to express their opinion about how government runs things, just 47% agreed. In 2009, the balance of opinion showed more doubting the power of voting. But this spring there seems to be a renewed conviction that casting one’s vote matters – a 56%-majority now believes this to be true.

Positive shifts in the value placed on voting are evident across education and income groups. Meanwhile, attitudes among older Russians appear to have “caught up” with those of younger Russians. In 2009, just over half (54%) of those ages 18-29 said that voting gave them a say about governance, but fewer among 30-49 year olds (42%) or those over 50 (38%) felt the same. Today, about the same number of 18-29 year olds think voting matters (51%), but more among the 30-49 and 50-plus cohorts now share this view, (55% and 61%, respectively).

Along with generally endorsing the importance of voting, a strong majority of Russians (64%) believe that attending protests or demonstrations is an effective way for average citizens to comment on the government’s actions. And more than half (56%) say they support the protests for fair elections that arose in the wake of the controversial parliamentary vote in December of last year.

While some in Russia have suggested that the protests for fair elections are the result of Western meddling, most Russians (58%) disagree, attributing the demonstrations instead to genuine dissatisfaction among the public.

Mixed Reaction to Presidential Vote

Protests in the wake of the December 2011 parliamentary elections brought to the fore questions about the fairness of the March 4, 2012 presidential vote. Following Putin’s first-round victory, the public offers a mixed assessment of the balloting: 47% believe the election was free from manipulation, while roughly a third (35%) disagree and 18% are uncertain.

Overall, a majority (56%) say they are satisfied with the results of the election, compared with a third (33%) who are dissatisfied. One-in-ten do not have an opinion either way.

The perceived fairness of the March 4th vote is a key factor influencing satisfaction with the outcome. Nearly nine-in-ten (87%) who think the election was “clean” say they are satisfied with the outcome. By contrast, only one-in-five who believe the vote was unfair say the same. Russians who are unsure whether the election was fair, meanwhile, tend to be satisfied (46%) with Putin’s victory.

Not surprisingly, reaction to the election results is especially positive among Russians who hold a favorable opinion of Putin (71% satisfied) and those who feel they are better off financially than they were five years ago (71% satisfied).

Putin’s Continued Appeal

While some Russians may have their doubts about the fairness of the March 4th presidential vote, Putin clearly remains popular. Roughly seven-in-ten (72%) say they have a favorable opinion of the returning president. Only about a quarter (24%) of respondents voice the opposite view.

Putin’s base of support is broad, although he is especially popular among women, Russians ages 30-49 and those with less than a college education. Overall, opinion of the newly elected president is more influenced by views of the economy and perceived social mobility. People who say the economy is good and feel they are better off than their parents are more likely to have a positive view of Putin. To the degree that democratic leanings help shape attitudes toward Putin, those who say an uncensored media is very important are less likely to have a favorable opinion of Russia’s long-time leader.

Dmitri Medvedev, who will now be stepping into the role of prime minister, is also widely popular. Two-thirds of Russians have a favorable view of Medvedev, while only 28% voice an unfavorable opinion.

In terms of public support, Putin and Medvedev clearly stand out from other figures on Russia’s political stage. Among the presidential candidates this spring, for example, Putin is the only one viewed favorably by a majority of Russians. Indeed, on balance, opinions of veteran politicians such as Communist Party head Zyuganov, A Just Russia’s Mironov and Liberal Democratic Party leader Zhirinovsky are negative (52%, 51% and 66% unfavorable, respectively).

Views are similarly negative for presidential candidate Prokhorov: roughly half (48%) have an unfavorable view of the billionaire businessman. Meanwhile, among the relatively few Russians familiar with Alexei Navalny, the online activist and a prominent organizer of anti-government protests, views also tend to be more negative than positive (31% vs. 16%).

Challenges Ahead?

As Putin assumes the presidency for the third time, he faces a public with mixed views about the state of their nation. At home, opinion is nearly evenly split as to whether the country is headed in the right direction. On one hand, more today (46%) than at any point since 2008 say things are going well. But on the other, worries persist. In particular, a majority (64%) continues to describe the economy as bad.

Internationally, meanwhile, Russians show signs of insecurity. Slightly more than half (55%) believe their country is generally disliked by other countries – an increase of 8 percentage points since 2010. And fully 73% say Russia deserves to be more respected around the world than it currently is.

The desire for enhanced prestige on the world stage coexists with a persistent strain of ethnic nationalism. Roughly half (53%) of Russians say their homeland should be for Russians, while 44% think it is natural for Russia to have an empire.

Democratic stirrings among the public notwithstanding, the survey finds that favorable views of Putin are influenced first and foremost by economic factors: people who say the economy is good or feel they are better off than their parents are more likely to have a positive opinion of Putin. To the degree that democratic values factor into attitudes toward Putin, those who say an uncensored media is important are less likely to have a positive view of the third-term president.

Other figures on Russia’s political stage barely hold a candle to Putin. Russians generally have negative views of Putin’s challengers from the March 2012 presidential election, especially the outspoken nationalist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Alexei Navalny, a critic of Putin and one of the lead organizers of demonstrations protesting recent elections, is unknown to more than half of the Russian public.

Putin and Medvedev Widely Popular

Vladimir Putin is well liked by most Russians, with roughly seven-in-ten (72%) offering a favorable opinion of the recently re-elected president. Only about a quarter (24%) of respondents have an unfavorable view of the Russian leader.

Putin is broadly popular, but especially so among women, those ages 30-49 and those with less than secondary education (75%, 75% and 77% favorable, respectively).

Overall, assessments of the national economy and social mobility play the greatest role in shaping attitudes toward Putin. Those who say the economy is in good shape and those who feel that they are better off than their parents are more likely to have a favorable opinion of the third-term president. To the extent that popular views of Putin are shaped by democratic aspirations, people who place importance on a media free from censorship are less likely to have a positive opinion of Putin.

Medvedev, the second half of what some have referred to as Russia’s leadership tandem, is also widely popular.

Two-thirds of Russians have a favorable view of Medvedev, while only 28% voice an unfavorable opinion. Like Putin, Medvedev is broadly popular across demographic groups, while his ratings jump to 88% among Russians who either have a favorable view of Vladimir Putin or support Putin’s political party, United Russia. By contrast, among those with an unfavorable view of Putin only 12% support Medvedev.

When it comes to how much confidence the Russian people have in Medvedev’s handling of world affairs, 59% say they have a lot or some confidence in his ability to do the right thing, while a third express not too much or no confidence. This is a decline from 2011 when 70% of Russians said they had confidence in Medvedev to handle world affairs and an even larger drop from 2009, when 76% of Russians expressed confidence in him.

The public’s confidence in Medvedev is slightly less than that for Putin: 69% have confidence in Putin’s handling of world affairs, while about a quarter (24%) do not.

Other Politicians Not As Well-liked

While Putin and Medvedev enjoy high ratings, other political figures in Russia are not nearly as popular. Gennady Zyuganov, First Secretary of the Communist Party of Russia and runner-up in the March 4th presidential vote, is viewed favorably by 39% of Russians, while roughly half (52%) have an unfavorable opinion of him. Communist party sympathizers give Zyuganov his highest marks, with about eight-in-ten (79%) expressing a positive view. Those ages 50 and older (47%) and those with secondary or less education (46%) also tend to view Zyuganov more favorably, while those under 30 or with a college education tend to view him less favorably (34% and 36% favorable, respectively). The Communist party leader’s ratings are mixed among those who make 10,000 rubles or less per month (49% favorable/45% unfavorable). Meanwhile Russians making more than 25,000 rubles per month are about twice as likely to have a negative as positive opinion of Zyuganov (62% vs. 29%).

The third and fifth place finishers in the March 4th presidential election, Mikhail Prokhorov, an independent billionaire, and Sergey Mironov, the candidate of the left-wing A Just Russia party, have limited appeal among the public. Just 36% of Russians have a favorable view of either Prokhorov or Mironov, with about half expressing an unfavorable opinion of each man. Prokhorov, who is also owner of an American professional basketball team, is more popular among urban and more educated Russians, but even among these groups he does not garner majority support.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the leader of the right wing Liberal Democratic Party of Russia and fourth place finisher in the presidential election, is even more disliked among Russians. Only 28% of Russians express a favorable opinion of the outspoken politician, with nearly two-thirds (66%) saying they have an unfavorable opinion.

Alexei Navalny, who was not a presidential candidate but was a driving force behind street demonstrations protesting the conduct of the December 2011 parliamentary and March 2012 presidential elections, is not well known among the Russian public. More than half (54%) have no opinion of the outspoken Putin critic. Only 16% have a favorable opinion of Navalny, while about three-in-ten (31%) view him negatively.

Confidence in Merkel in Europe, Little Confidence in the Middle East

Majorities in three of the four Western European countries included in the survey have confidence in German Chancellor Angela Merkel to do the right thing regarding world affairs. However outside of Western Europe, there is less confidence in Merkel, and many are unfamiliar with the German leader.

Confidence in Merkel is widespread in both France and Germany. Almost eight-in-ten in France (77%) have confidence in her to do the right thing in foreign affairs, down slightly from 84% in 2008. Three-quarters of Germans express confidence in Merkel, essentially unchanged from last year. About half in Britain (51%) and Spain (49%) have confidence in her. While positive evaluations surpass negative assessments in Russia, (40% confident vs. 25% not confident), confidence in the German chancellor in Russia declined by nine percentage points over the last year.

In the United States, more express confidence in Merkel’s foreign policy skills than take the opposite view (47% confident vs. 24% not confident), though almost three-in-ten (29%) are unable to offer an opinion on her. Similarly, more in Japan offer positive than negative assessments of the German leader (42% vs. 23%), but again many admit they are unfamiliar with her (34%).

Negative views of Merkel are more pervasive in the Middle East than in any other region. Majorities in the Palestinian territories (73%), Egypt (70%), Jordan (69%) and Lebanon (64%) have little or no confidence in Merkel to do the right thing in world affairs. Views of Merkel are equally divided among Israelis (48% confident vs. 48% not confident).

Consistent with previous surveys, most in Turkey have little faith in Merkel’s foreign policy decisions. Currently, two-thirds of Turks do not trust Merkel’s judgment in foreign affairs, while only a handful say the opposite (7%).

Elsewhere, many around the world are unable to offer an opinion either way on the German chancellor. Half or more in India, Indonesia, Mexico, Argentina and Pakistan are unable to assess Merkel’s ability to handle world affairs.

Confidence in Sarkozy

Western European publics express less confidence in French President Nicolas Sarkozy than in German Chancellor Angela Merkel. And, similar to Merkel, Sarkozy receives his most negative assessments in the Middle East.

Slim majorities in France (53%) and Germany (52%) say they have confidence in Sarkozy to do the right thing regarding foreign affairs. But opinions of Sarkozy in these nations are far from decisive – 47% in France and 43% in Germany have no confidence in the French president. More in Spain have little or no confidence (54%) in Sarkozy’s foreign policy skills than have confidence (38%). In Britain, the percentage expressing confidence in Sarkozy has dropped dramatically since last year. In 2008, a majority of the British (53%) felt confident in Sarkozy, but today just 33% feel the same way.

Roughly four-in-ten (42%) in the U.S. have a lot or some confidence in the French president, while a third (33%) have little or no confidence in him. Among Canadians, almost half (47%) say they have confidence in Sarkozy’s ability to handle world affairs, while fewer (31%) say that they do not have confidence in him.

With the exception of the Lebanese, majorities across the Middle East countries surveyed lack confidence in Sarkozy to handle global affairs. Many the Palestinian territories (72%), Egypt (68%), Jordan (65%) and Israel (56%) express little or no confidence in Sarkozy to do the right thing in world affairs. On the other hand, almost six-in-ten in Lebanon (57%) have confidence in the French leader.

Substantial proportions in Turkey (73%), Pakistan (66%), India (59%), Indonesia (54%), Mexico (52%) and Argentina (49%) are unable to offer assessments of the French president.

Views of Medvedev Largely Negative

Confidence in Russian President Dmitri Medvedev to do the right thing in world affairs is low. In no country –outside of Russia – does a majority express confidence in Medvedev to do the right thing regarding global affairs. The Russian president receives his highest rating among his own people – about three-quarters of Russians (76%) say they have a lot or some confidence in him.

Among the European publics surveyed, most doubt the Russian leader’s ability to do the right thing when dealing with foreign policy issues. Strong majorities in Germany (63%), Poland (69%), Spain (70%) and France (80%) hold negative opinions of Medvedev. In Britain, views of the Russian president are on balance negative (49% no confidence vs. 27% confident). And in Turkey, 64% say they have little or no confidence in Medvedev.

Similarly, negative views of President Medvedev are widespread among all of the publics surveyed throughout the Middle East. Large majorities in Egypt (78%), Israel (74%), Jordan (73%), the Palestinian territories (72%) and Lebanon (58%) do not trust the judgment of the Russian leader in world affairs.

In only three countries – excluding Russia – is the balance of opinion on Medvedev mostly positive. In China (46%) and Nigeria (45%), pluralities express confidence in his foreign policy skills. In Kenya, slightly more have confidence in him (36%) than do not (30%); about a third (34%) offer no opinion.

The change in Russian leadership in May 2008 did little to boost confidence ratings around the world in Russia’s leadership. Overall, Medvedev receives very similar ratings to former president, and current prime minister, Vladimir Putin.

Despite worldwide skepticism of Medvedev, he remains popular at home – but not quite as popular as his predecessor. Strong majorities of Russians express confidence in both their president (76%) and prime minister (81%) to do the right thing in world affairs – but just slightly more express confidence in Putin than in Medvedev.

Moreover, the high profile role Putin appeared to play in international and domestic issues over the last year is reflected in Russian opinions over who is in charge. Almost six-in-ten Russians (58%) believe that Putin has more political power in the country than President Medvedev. Fewer than one-in-five (16%) believe that the president has the most political power, and just about a quarter (23%) volunteered that the two leaders share power together.

By contrast, last year following the 2008 presidential election in Russia, roughly half of Russians (48%) expected Putin to have more power than Medvedev. But roughly equal percentages felt either that Medvedev (22%) would be more powerful or volunteered that both (24%) leaders would share their hold on the reins of power.

As Russian and Ukrainian leaders squabbled over gas supplies in late 2008 and early 2009, Eastern Europeans farther down the pipeline went without heat. European Commissioner Jose Manuel Barroso called the dispute “most unacceptable and incredible,” although it was clearly not unprecedented. In 2006, just as today, a price and payment dispute between Russia and Ukraine led to gas supplies being cut-off to Ukraine. Both Eastern and Western Europeans are vulnerable to these disputes because they rely heavily on Russian gas supplies, most of which are pumped through Ukraine. In fact, many Eastern European countries now rely on Russia for a majority of their gas supplies while about a quarter of Western European supplies are Russian exports.

Not surprisingly, the Pew Global Attitudes poll found that majorities in a number of Western and Eastern European nations were concerned about their country’s reliance on Russian energy. Moreover, worries about Russian energy dependence became more common between 2007 and 2008.

Just as public concern about energy dependence has become widespread, so too have unfavorable views of Russia and increasingly critical views of Russia’s current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. And surveys show a clear linkage between concern about energy dependence and unfavorable views of Russia.

Dependence on Russian Energy

Majorities in all Western European countries surveyed in 2008 except Spain said they were very or fairly concerned that their country had become too dependent on Russia for its energy resources: Roughly six-in-ten or more among British (67%), German (62%) and French (58%) publics expressed concern; the Spanish public was evenly split on this issue (46% concerned, 47% not concerned).

Concern grew a bit between 2007 and 2008 in several Western European publics; slightly more were worried in 2008 in Germany (62%), France (58%), and Spain (46%) than in 2007 (Germany 58%, France 53%, Spain 38%). British views have remained unchanged.

Similarly, in 2007 majorities in all Eastern European countries surveyed except Bulgaria said they were concerned about their country’s dependence on Russian energy resources: Three-quarters of Poles, roughly six-in-ten Ukrainians (63%) and Czechs (57%) and half of Slovaks (53%) expressed concern. Of the Eastern Europeans surveyed, Bulgarians were the least concerned about their dependence on Russian gas resources. Only a little over one-third (37%) in Bulgaria expressed concern, while a full half (53%) said they were not too/at all worried. Fewer Poles were worried in 2008 (66%) than in 2007 (75%).

European Views of Russia Largely Unfavorable

Pew Global Attitudes Project survey data show that negative views of Russia have been nearly as widespread as has concern over dependence on Russian natural gas. In fact, the polling revealed a connection between concern over energy dependence and unfavorable views of Russia.

The 2007 Pew survey found relatively negative opinions of Russia across much of Europe – albeit with a few exceptions.

More than half in Poland (58%) and the Czech Republic (54%) offered critical opinions of Russia. And ratings of Russia were even worse among Western European publics. Majorities in France (65%), Germany (62%), and Sweden (59%) expressed an unfavorable view of Russia.

Positive views were more the exception than the rule but they predominated in several Eastern European countries. Eight-in-ten Ukrainians expressed a favorable view of Russia. Similarly, Bulgarians (78%) and Slovaks (59%) held largely positive views of Russia in 2007.

Looking more closely at opinions, those who worried about dependence on its energy resources had more generally negative opinions of Russia. For instance, in the Czech Republic, 62% of those who said they were concerned about their country’s dependence on Russian energy had unfavorable views of Russia, while only 44% of those who were not concerned held such negative views. It is likely that the current gas crisis has the potential to further erode Russia’s image in Europe.

Europeans Lack Confidence in Putin

Pew Global Attitudes survey data has shown declining confidence in Putin, which may also be related to discontent with dependence on Russian energy resources.

Putin’s popularity decreased substantially between 2003 and 2007 across Europe as the energy dependence issue emerged. In fact, positive ratings of Putin were cut in half in several countries including Germany, France and Spain.

In 2008, solid majorities in France (82%), Spain (80%), Poland (78%), Germany (60%), and Great Britain (56%) said they have not much or no confidence in Putin to do the right thing in world affairs.

Between 2007 and 2008, European views of Putin fluctuated modestly. During that time, views remained basically steady in Spain and France, while they became slightly more positive in Germany and more negative in Britain.

Five years after the start of the war in Iraq, the image of the United States abroad remains far less positive than it was before the war and at the beginning of the century. However, the latest survey by the Pew Global Attitudes Project finds some encouraging signs for America’s global image for the first time this decade.

Favorable views of the United States have increased modestly since 2007 in 10 of 21 countries where comparative data are available. Perhaps more importantly, the polling finds many people around the world paying close attention to the U.S. presidential election. Moreover – except in countries that are extremely anti-American – those who are paying attention generally believe the next president may well change U.S. foreign policy for the better. In nearly every country surveyed, greater numbers express confidence in presidential candidate Barack Obama than in John McCain.

However, the survey of more than 24,000 people in 24 countries, conducted March 17 to April 21, finds another change in global opinion that could present a formidable challenge to the United States in the future. Around the world, people have a new concern: slumping economic conditions. And they have a familiar complaint – most think the U.S. is having a considerable influence on their economy, and it is largely seen as a negative one.

Majorities in 18 of the 24 countries surveyed describe current economic conditions in their country as bad. Assessments have worsened over the past year among countries surveyed in both this year and 2007. The median percentage rating their national economy as bad rose from 50% in 2007 to 61% in the current poll. The proportion of respondents expressing a positive view of their nation’s economy has declined in 14 of the 22 countries since last year.

The publics of two emerging Asian superpowers – China and India – remain upbeat about national economic conditions, though Indians are less positive than they were a year ago. In contrast, some of the most negative evaluations of economic conditions come from citizens of advanced Western countries. Positive views of the economy have declined sharply over the past year in Great Britain, the United States and Spain. France, where most people were already quite negative about the economy, registered a further decline; in the current survey, just 19% of the French view the national economy as good, down from 30% in 2007.

While American and Chinese publics are at opposite poles with the respect to opinions about their national economies, the new Global Attitudes survey finds growing symmetry in the way that the United States and China are viewed by people all around the world. Overall, favorable ratings of the two countries are fairly comparable as China’s image has slipped a bit and the U.S. image, if anything, has improved slightly. Both the United States and China are widely viewed as taking a unilateralist approach in their relations with other nations, while at the same time both are seen as having considerable influence on other countries. And as global warming is of increasing importance to the citizens of the world, both the U.S, and China are criticized for the way they deal with environmental problems.

Blaming the United States

Large majorities in countries ranging from economically advanced Great Britain and Germany to developing nations such as Egypt and Indonesia say that what happens in the American economy affects economic conditions in their own countries. With only a few exceptions, the American economy is now seen as having a negative impact on national economies, both large and small, in all parts of the world.

The view that the American economy is hurting their national economies is most prevalent among the publics of Western Europe. About seven-in-ten in Great Britain, Germany (72% each) and France (70%) say that the U.S. economy is having a negative impact on economic conditions in their country. India and Nigeria are the only nations surveyed where more than a third of respondents express a positive view of America’s economic influence.

U.S. Favorability Edges Up

Despite these economic concerns, there is little evidence that the overall image of the United States has slipped further as a consequence. In fact, positive views of the United States have risen sharply in Tanzania (by 19 points) and South Korea (12 points), and by smaller but significant margins in Indonesia, China, India and Poland. Overall, opinions of the United States are most positive in South Korea, Poland, India and in the three African countries surveyed this year – Tanzania, Nigeria and South Africa.

However, positive opinions of the United States have declined by 11 points in Japan – a traditional U.S. ally – and in neighboring Mexico (by nine points). The image of the United States also remains overwhelmingly negative in most of the predominantly Muslim countries surveyed, though no more so than in recent years.

Fewer than a quarter of respondents express positive opinions of the United States in Egypt (22%), Jordan (19%), Pakistan (19%) and Turkey (12%). Large majorities in Turkey and Pakistan say they think of the United States as “more of an enemy” rather than as “more of a friend” (70% in Turkey; 60% in Pakistan). In Lebanon, 80% of Shia Muslims consider the United States to be more of an enemy.

As in recent years, favorable views of the United States remain fairly low among the publics of a number of its traditional Western European allies. Solid majorities continue to express unfavorable opinions of the U.S. in France, Germany and Spain. Great Britain is the only country – of four Western European nations surveyed – where a majority (53%) expresses a positive view of the U.S.

Next American President

The survey also finds a widespread belief that U.S. foreign policy “will change for the better” after the inauguration of a new American president next year. Among people who have been following the election, large majorities in France (68%), Spain (67%) and Germany (64%) say that they believe that U.S. foreign policy will improve after the election. This sentiment is also common in the African countries included in the survey – Nigeria (67%), South Africa (66%) and Tanzania (65%).

Yet this belief is far from universal. In Jordan and Egypt, more people who are following the election say they expect new leadership to change U.S. foreign policy for the worse than say they expect a change for the better. Two-thirds of the Japanese (67%) who are following the election say it will not bring about much change in U.S. foreign policy. That is the plurality opinion in Russia and Turkey as well.

There is considerable interest in the presidential campaign in the surveyed countries. A large majority of Japanese say they are following the election very closely (24%) or somewhat closely (59%). As a point of comparison, a third of Americans are following the election very closely, with another 47% saying they are tracking the campaign somewhat closely.

At least half or more of respondents in such countries as Germany, Australia, Great Britain and Jordan are closely following the election. There is less interest in the election in many other countries, including France, where 40% are focusing on the campaign, Mexico (33%) and Spain (25%).

People around the world who have been paying attention to the American election express more confidence in Barack Obama than in John McCain to do the right thing regarding world affairs. McCain is rated lower than Obama in every country surveyed, except for the United States where his rating matches Obama’s, as well as in Jordan and Pakistan where few people have confidence in either candidate.

Obama’s advantage over McCain is overwhelming in the Western European countries surveyed: Fully 84% of the French who have been following the election say they have confidence in Obama to do the right thing regarding world affairs, compared with 33% who say that about McCain. The differences in ratings for Obama and McCain are about as large in Spain and Germany, and are only somewhat narrower in Great Britain.

China Under the Microscope

With global attention focused on China in anticipation of the Beijing Olympics, people around the world express considerable concern about Chinese policies and the impact that China is having on their own countries and lives. China is faulted for a unilateral approach in its dealings with other countries and for not respecting human rights at home. And it is increasingly seen as hurting the global environment at a time when concerns about global warming run very high and have increased in many countries.

The verdict is more mixed with regard to China’s growing economic power and the impact it is having on the well being of other nations. China is a consistent worry to the publics of most Western nations, as well as to the South Koreans, but the publics of other Asian nations, including the Japanese, Indonesians and Pakistanis generally see increasing Chinese economic power as a good thing. And the publics of African nations, in particular Nigeria and Tanzania, are most likely to look favorably upon China’s burgeoning economic impact and influence.

Overall the current survey, which was conducted at a time when China was coming under harsh criticism for its crackdown on political dissent in Tibet, once again finds favorable ratings of China slipping in many countries. Positive views fell significantly in nine of 21 countries in which polls were taken in 2007, as well as in the current survey. Opinions of China tumbled the most in France (47% to 28%) and in Japan (29% to 14%). Favorable ratings of China are highest in Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania and Russia.

Despite growing anti-Chinese sentiment, people in most countries surveyed approve of the decision to hold the Olympics in Beijing. In 14 of 23 countries, clear majorities favor the idea. Dissenters are most prevalent in Japan (55%), France (55%), Germany (47%) and the U.S. (43%).

Advocates of the Olympics decision are most often found in neighboring Asian nations India, Indonesia, Pakistan and South Korea. But many people in African and Latin American nations that have strong economic ties to China, including Nigeria (79%), Argentina (72%), Mexico (67%) and Brazil (76%), are also overwhelmingly enthusiastic about the decision.

The new survey finds that global views of China and the U.S. are parallel in many respects. First, there is parity in the worldwide images of the two nations. The survey found the publics of nine countries holding a more favorable view of the U.S. than China, which was matched by 10 countries where there is a more favorable view of China. (In three countries, publics had an equally favorable view of the U.S. and China.)

In Asia, the U.S. is much better rated than China by the Indians and the South Koreans. But, the Chinese image far outshines the U.S. image among Indonesians, Pakistanis and Russians. In Western Europe, the British, French, and Germans rate both the U.S. and the American people more positively than they do China and the Chinese people.

As with the United States, people around the world are critical of China for not taking into account the interests of other countries in the formulation of international policies. Criticisms of Chinese unilateralism are particularly prevalent in neighboring Japan and South Korea.

Also paralleling opinion of the United States, many people around the world think that China has a direct bearing on how things are going in their country. This view is especially prevalent among Asian publics, as well as those of leading Western powers: Fully 86% of Japanese respondents think that China has a significant amount of influence on the way things are going in their country, a view shared by 76% of the American public. Somewhat smaller majorities in France, Germany and Great Britain concur.

However, large majorities of the publics of two of the three African nations included in the survey are also of the view that China has an impact on their respective countries – 70% of Nigerians and 63% of South Africans believe that China has a bearing on the course of their nations. But, for the most part, African publics, unlike most people in other parts of the world, think that China’s influence is positive. For example, 85% of Nigerians who think China is having an influence on their country believe its impact is a good one, while only 22% of the British hold the same view.

Human Rights Concerns

One continuing advantage for the U.S. over China is that large majorities of people in most countries are critical of China for not respecting the personal freedoms of its people. By contrast, for the most part, the U.S. is seen as mindful of the rights of its citizens. Overwhelming numbers of people in Western countries are critical of China in this regard, rating it as negatively as Iran in terms of respect for human rights. Only in Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania and Indonesia do most people think well of China’s concern for personal freedoms.

Closer to the lives of people all around the world, respondents in most countries say they think that products made in China are less safe than products made in other countries. Majorities of respondents in 18 of 24 countries expressed concerns about Chinese exports.

Yet, for all the criticisms of China with respect to how it operates both at home and abroad, there is little public alarm. China is not seen as an enemy by the vast majority of people in the countries surveyed. Even in Japan where views about China are highly unfavorable, only 23% of respondents describe China as an enemy. Indeed, China is more often thought of as a partner in Africa – majorities in Nigeria (78%), Tanzania (74%) and South Africa (53%) express this view.

Additional Findings

• Support for international trade continues to decline in the United States – 53% of Americans say trade is good for their country, down from 59% last year and 78% in 2002. Support for trade is lower in the U.S. than in any other country included in the survey.
• The survey finds little optimism about the likelihood of success in Iraq. Americans are much less optimistic than they were two years ago – 40% now say efforts to establish a stable democratic Iraqi government will succeed, down from 54% in 2006. However, optimism has increased slightly in both Egypt (32% in 2006, 41% now) and Jordan (34% in 2006, 41% now).
• Majorities or pluralities in 21 of 24 countries want the U.S. and NATO to remove their troops from Afghanistan as soon as possible. However, public opinion in the U.S., Great Britain and Australia – all of which have a military presence in Afghanistan – leans toward keeping troops there until the situation has stabilized.
• In 22 of 24 countries, the U.S. is most commonly identified as the world’s leading economic power. Pluralities in Germany and Australia, however, name China.
• Western European publics are more likely than China’s Asian neighbors to believe China will ultimately replace the United States as the world’s leading superpower. Most Chinese think their country either has already supplanted the U.S. (5%) or will eventually do so (53%).
• Asian publics generally have favorable views of both Japan and India, although neither country fares so well among its traditional rivals. Only 21% of Chinese have a positive opinion of Japan and just 27% of Pakistanis hold a favorable view of India.
• As he nears the end of his second term, U.S. President George W. Bush continues to receive negative reviews from international publics. In 14 of 24 countries, two-thirds or more of respondents express little or no confidence in him to do the right thing in world affairs.
• In the U.S., just 37% voice confidence in Bush, that compares to 78% in May 2003, just months after the beginning of the Iraq war.
• Views of French President Nicholas Sarkozy are mixed, both inside and outside Europe. Among the French themselves, 51% have a lot or some confidence in their president to do the right thing in foreign policy, while 49% have little or no confidence. However, the French hold decidedly positive views of Angela Merkel – 84% have confidence in the German Chancellor. This is similar to 2006, when the French held Merkel in much higher regard than Sarkozy’s predecessor Jacques Chirac.
• Merkel also receives high marks from her fellow Germans – 76% have confidence in her. Of the three European leaders assessed on the survey – Merkel, Sarkozy and Russia’s Vladimir Putin – Merkel generally receives the highest ratings from global publics.
• The U.S. is blamed more often than any other country for harming the world’s environment, although concerns about China’s environmental record are on the rise as well – the view that China is most to blame is up significantly in 13 of 20 countries.

Domestic opinion of these leaders is consistent with foreign opinion in France and Germany but different in Russia. While Germans largely hold positive views of Merkel and the French are conflicted over Sarkozy, Russian confidence in Putin is unequivocal. Russian views on how much power Putin will wield are less definitive.

Apart from their opinion of the Russian leader, however, one concern is widely shared among Europeans – worry about dependence on Russian energy resources.

Views of Putin Remain Negative

In Europe and elsewhere, confidence in Putin to do the right thing in world affairs is low. Solid majorities in France (82%), Spain (80%), Poland (78%), Germany (60%), and Great Britain (56%) hold negative opinions of Putin. Views of Putin are equally negative in all countries surveyed in the Middle East. Large majorities in Egypt (74%), Jordan (72%), Turkey (70%), and Lebanon (59%) lack confidence in the Russian leader.

In half of the countries surveyed, views of Putin have remained basically steady between 2007 and 2008. Opinions of Putin have, however, become more negative in a number of countries including Mexico, China, India, and Britain. For China, 2008 marks the first time that Putin’s popularity has declined since being measured by Pew; in 2007 a solid majority (58%) of Chinese held positive views of Putin, while less than half (46%) do now.

Despite worldwide skepticism of Putin, he continues to remain popular at home. Just as in 2007, more than eight-in-ten (83%) Russians have faith in Putin’s handling of foreign affairs. Roughly half of Russians (48%) expect Putin to have more power than Dmitri Medvedev – the newly elected president of Russia. Still, a roughly equal percentage say either that Medvedev (22%) will have more power or volunteer that both Putin and Medvedev (24%) will share the political reigns equally.

Regardless of who ultimately wields more power, Russians are still inclined to favor “a leader with a strong hand” over a democracy to solve their country’s problems (57% vs. 33%). Russians are slightly less inclined to have faith in a strong leader and slightly more inclined to trust in a democracy in 2008 than in 2007 (In 2007, 63% favored a strong leader compared with 27% who saw democracy as a better problem solver). But support for democracy was much stronger among Russians seventeen years ago in the 1991 Pulse of Europe survey (conducted by the Times Mirror Center – the predecessor of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press), when 51% preferred democracy and 39% favored a strong leader.

Europeans Largely Confident in Merkel

Majorities of people in West European countries and pluralities in Poland and Russia have confidence in German Chancellor Angela Merkel to do the right thing in matters of foreign policy.

Confidence in Merkel is most pervasive in France, though it is still quite broad-based among her countrymen and women: More than eight-in-ten in France (84%) have faith in Merkel while three-in-four (76%) do in Germany. Fewer, but still about half in Britain (53%) and Spain (51%) hold Merkel in high regard. Positive evaluations also outweigh negative assessments in Russia and Poland, though views are more closely divided in Poland (45% confident vs. 41% not confident).

Confidence in Merkel is mixed in non-European nations with the largest economies, and many in these countries are unfamiliar with the German leader. Nearly half (47%) in Japan have positive views of Merkel’s foreign policy leadership while nearly four-in-ten do in the U.S (39%); many in both publics did not provide an answer. Few in either China (26%) or India (18%) trust in Merkel’s judgment although many in both countries offer no opinion (China 40%, India 54%).

Merkel is much less popular in the Middle East than in other parts of the world. Majorities in Turkey (68%), Lebanon (60%), Jordan (59%) and Egypt (55%) hold negative views of the German Chancellor.

Views of Merkel have fluctuated somewhat in the past year. Positive views of Merkel increased substantially in Spain: In 2007 just over one-third (36%) in Spain had confidence in Merkel while in 2008, half (51%) say they do. A much smaller increase occurred among Russians as well (+5 points).

The story is the reverse for both Germany and Britain; fewer among both of these publics are confident in Merkel now than one year ago. In 2007 more than eight-in-ten Germans (85%) and six-in-ten British (62%) had faith in her foreign policy decisions, while just over three-quarters (76%) of Germans and half of those in Great Britain (53%) do now.

Confidence in Sarkozy is Mixed

Among the European publics surveyed, confidence in Sarkozy to do the right thing in matters of foreign policy is mixed. In Britain, a majority hold a positive view of him (53%). The French themselves are conflicted; half (51%) have confidence while the other half (49%) do not. In Poland, positive assessments of Sarkozy (45%) slightly outweigh negative ones (34%). However, majorities or pluralities in Spain (56%), Germany (51%) and Russia (42%) lack faith in the French president.

Views of Sarkozy are also largely mixed among non-European publics. A plurality of Americans (37%) have a positive opinion of Sarkozy, though nearly as many in the U.S. hold a negative (30%) view or do not offer an answer (33%). Negative views are especially common in Japan, where half say they have little or no confidence in the French president.

Sarkozy receives mostly negative ratings in the Middle East with the exception of Lebanon. More than seven-in-ten in Turkey (74%), and more than six-in-ten in Egypt (67%) and Jordan (63%), lack confidence in Sarkozy in the foreign policy arena. By contrast, a majority in Lebanon (56%) have faith in him.

Europeans Concerned About Dependence on Russian Energy

Majorities in all European countries surveyed except Spain say they are concerned about their country’s dependence on Russian energy resources: Roughly six-in-ten or more among British (67%), Polish (66%), German (62%) and French (58%) publics express concern; the Spanish public is evenly split on this issue (46% concerned, 47% not concerned).

Some limited change in concern about dependence on Russian resources has occurred in the past year; slightly more are worried now in Germany (62%), France (58%), and Spain (46%) than in 2007 (Germany 58%, France 53%, Spain 38%). By contrast, fewer Poles are worried now (66%) than were one year ago (75%). British views have remained unchanged.

On the eve of the 2008 Russian presidential election, opinion polling suggests the result of the election might be a foregone conclusion: Vladimir Putin’s handpicked successor, Dmitry Medvedev, is likely to become the next president of Russia.

Pew Global Attitudes Project survey data from 2007, along with other recent surveys, have found strong and consistent public support for Putin. And while the world at large may be concerned about Putin’s increased centralization of power and rolling-back of democratic rights, there is little indication that Russians share these concerns. In fact, surveys consistently find that Russians have a definite preference for a strong leader over a democratic government, and large majorities say that a strong economy is more important than a good democracy to solve Russia’s problems.

Putin’s Overwhelming Popularity

While initially an unknown in Russia when assuming office on Dec. 31,1999 following Boris Yeltsin’s resignation, Putin has since enjoyed the confidence and support of the Russian people. Pew’s results indicate that Putin’s appeal is near universal: More than eight-in-ten Russians’ have confidence in Putin to do the right thing regarding world affairs. Confidence in Putin cuts across all ages and income levels as well as both sexes and has been strong since 2003.

For most of his eight years as president, Putin has also maintained high approval ratings. With only weeks left in his presidency, this trend remains strong. Recent surveys conducted by the Yuri Levada Analytical Center show that more than eight-in-ten Russians say they approve of Putin’s handling of the post of president of Russia (Feb. 8-11, 85% approve, 13% disapprove; Jan. 18-22, 86% approve, 13% disapprove).

Recent results from a Yuri Levada survey also suggest that this nearly universal confidence in and approval of Putin may well transfer to Putin’s chosen successor Medvedev. Just before Putin announced his choice, only 35% of likely voters indicated that they would vote for Medvedev for president (December 7-10, 2007); shortly after Putin’s endorsement of Medvedev for president and Medvedev’s announcement that it was of “utmost importance” to have Putin as head of government, support for Medvedev jumped to 79%.¹

It’s the Economy, Not Democracy, Stupid

Russia’s experience with democracy and a market economy has been much like a roller coaster ride — lots of momentum, highs and lows and sudden stops. Euphoria and hope followed in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, along with real increases in the democratic freedoms allowed to citizens. Unfortunately these were soon accompanied by hyperinflation, high unemployment and, in 1998, the Russian financial crisis. The advent of Putin’s leadership in 1999 brought a rollback of democratic rights but also solid economic growth. Russians’ preference for a strong leader over a democratic government and a strong economy over a good democracy reflect both the political and economic uncertainty of the 1990s, and the substantial GDP growth the country has enjoyed during Putin’s presidency.
Figure

In the immediate aftermath of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, half of Russians had faith in a democratic form of government to solve the country’s problems — a larger number than had faith in a strong leader (39%) to do the same. By 2002, the pattern had reversed to its current status with more Russians having faith in a strong leader than in a democratic government.

When Russians are asked which is more important to them, a good democracy or a strong economy, more than seven-in-ten choose a strong economy. Russians’ preference for a strong economy over a good democracy has remained widespread since 2002.

Russians’ preference for a strong economy over a good democracy in shared by others in Eastern Europe. However. this sentiment is more prominent in Russia and Ukraine than in Bulgaria, and far more so than among other east European publics surveyed.